Another Late Season Surge

[JD1]

The issue is using sv% as an indicator of average goaltending on a game by game basis, you can get a shutout with average goaltending or you can get blown out, sv% really only works as an indicator when the sample is large enough.

Even then, as JD1 pointed out, remove one bad goal and an average .900sv% becomes a .933sv%, if you try to argue only games with a sv% of .900 +/- .01 is average goaltending, only 9 games all season qualify, a guy like Skinner with pretty average sv% on the season would only have 4 average games out of 54.

So what is average in this context? The standard deviation league wide of a games sv% is .06, so anything from .966 to .841 would fall into that. Even at half a standard deviation you'd get Vezina caliber sv% of .935 all the way down to league worst of .872.

Here's Korpisalo's games in which he got credited with a decision;

Korpisalo Sv% Range W L OTL
1 std Dev .841-.967 15 14 4 --- 85 pts pace
1/2 std Dev .873-.935 10 8 3 --- 90 pts pace
1/4 std Dev .888-.920 9 4 1 --- 111 pts pace
1/8 std Dev .896-.912 4 1 0 --- 131 pts pace

Outside 1 std dev >.967, <.841 4 7 0 --- 60 pts pace

So what's average goaltending? Take your pick, but the .900 - .910 range you alluded to earlier is a pretty damn narrow definition, and the closer we get to average, the more our win % climbs.

The problem is getting average goaltending is hard to do in an actual game

Take a 30 shot game.
The only scenario where your goaltending is average is 27 saves. 28 or more is great. 26 or less sucks.

Take a 40 shot game.
The only scenario where you're goaltender is average is 36 saves. 37 or more is great. 35 or less sucks.

So, what does that mean? It means "average" goaltending in a single game doesn't happen all that often.


So @jbeck5 to say "we only win when we get great goaltending" of course we do. That's pretty normal. If we get lousy goaltending i.e. 26 saves in a 30 shot game, then the other side has to get REALLY lousy goaltending for us to win.

A little better than average goaltending might see you get 6 out of 10 games with 28 saves or better and 4 out of 10 with 26 saves or worse. But at 28 and 26 saves in 6 and 4 games respectively, that's 272 saves in 300. That's.907. A little above average and probably no worse than a 5-4-1 w/l record in a 10 game segment. Do it again and get a little better record and you have a 6-4 10 game segment. Extrapolate that out and you've got a 94 season.

It'd be quite hard to lose any of the games where you get the 28 save performance and hard to win any of the games where you get the 26 save performances

 

[Micklebot]

The problem is getting average goaltending is hard to do in an actual game

Take a 30 shot game.
The only scenario where your goaltending is average is 27 saves. 28 or more is great. 26 or less sucks.

Take a 40 shot game.
The only scenario where you're goaltender is average is 36 saves. 37 or more is great. 35 or less sucks.

So, what does that mean? It means "average" goaltending in a single game doesn't happen all that often.

Well that all depends on how you define average goaltending in the context of sv% on an individual game basis, if you narrow it down to exactly .903 (or as close as a whole goal can get you), it's really rare, if you balloon it up to everything within a standard deviation, its overly broad. The half standard deviation is probably a decent option, but essentially only allows +/-1 goal in your 30 shot scenario, 1 ga or less is great, 2-4 average, 5+ bad.

 

[Ice-Tray]

I’m disappointed as well of course, but why are folks dejected about the idea of finishing in the middle of the pack for a bit before taking the next step to being a playoff team?

It’s not really realistic to expect us to finish bottom of the league and then all of a sudden be a playoff team going forward.

This season feels like a step back for sure, or more like a stumble really, but even the best case of being realistic was to be battling for a playoff spot.

We are not a bad team.

 

[mysens]

I’m disappointed as well of course, but why are folks dejected about the idea of finishing in the middle of the pack for a bit before taking the next step to being a playoff team?

It’s not really realistic to expect us to finish bottom of the league and then all of a sudden be a playoff team going forward.

This season feels like a step back for sure, or more like a stumble really, but even the best case of being realistic was to be battling for a playoff spot.

We are not a bad team.

When you put it that way I suppose I agree. I think everyone is fixated on finally getting our turn or shot at the number 1 pick.

 

[Tnuoc Alucard]

 

[Tuna99]

It would be nice to draft after Montreal and troll then like we did with the Brady pick.

Here my mock draft abyways

1. Celebrini
2. Lindstrom
3. pareshk
4. Esimerman
5. Dickinson
6. Demidov
7 (Sens) Levahunov

 

[RickyLafleur]

Sick and tired of these meaningless late season surges that only amount to lowering our own draft pick and give false hope for next season.

 

[Golden_Jet]

They lost a combined 18-6 in 3 games in that stretch which was putrid hockey..

I would easily seperate that into 2 seperate hot streaks.

If course if you throw in the games in the middle where we were getting blown out, it's going to make the goaltending numbers look pedestrian.

But in the actual streaks of good play, the goaltending was good...which is big part of the reason of why we won those games. With good goaltending. Not average.

It only looks average when you throw in several blow out losses...but that wasn't exactly average goaltending or winning hockey... When they're actually playing winning hockey, they're getting good or great goaltending- not average.

Getting average goaltending and winning would imply the team is winning games 4-3 while allowing 25-30 shots, for example.

But most of those wins were allowing 2 or less goals on more than 20 shots.

It may be semantics, but when someone says they're winning games with average goaltending, I would expect to go to the games they win, and find average goaltending numbers...but I don't. I'm seeing good to great goaltending numbers on most wins.

We're not actually winning many games where we get .900-.910 save percentage. We do win some, yes, but most of our wins have come with good to great numbers.

I'm not convinced that this team is really strong with average goaltending. The numbers don't yet reflect that.

The goaltending needs to improve big time for next year, but so do the skaters. They aren't getting a pass from me. We need big time improvements from our forwards and defense as well.

Didn’t they show a stat during a game a few weeks back, that Sens were 18-2-1 or something when got 900 goaltending or better.

 

[jbeck5]

Didn’t they show a stat during a game a few weeks back, that Sens were 18-2-1 or something when got 900 goaltending or better.

Something like that, though most of those wins were actually far higher than .900

Only a few were in the .900 -.910 window, and I don't think we have a good record compared to other teams when getting .900-910 save percentages, though that sample will be small of course as there's a wide range of game to game save percentage.

 

[BondraTime]

Something like that, though most of those wins were actually far higher than .900

Only a few were in the .900 -.910 window, and I don't think we have a good record compared to other teams when getting .900-910 save percentages, though that sample will be small of course as there's a wide range of game to game save percentage.

4-1 with those numbers

 

[Tuna99]

Didn’t they show a stat during a game a few weeks back, that Sens were 18-2-1 or something when got 900 goaltending or better.

Just like the American election will come down to 40 000 votes - Sens get 15 more saves in their season and they are in the wild card spot.

Last night is the perfect example - Sens claw back, only 20 shots against and they give up that 3rd goal. deserved to win, but it’s a lose

Alfie said it best - when you’re good the margin between winning and losing seems to small you believe you can win every game. When you’re a losing team the margin to win seems immense, no matter what you do the game conspires against you to lose

 

[jbeck5]

4-1 with those numbers

I thought I remember seeing 3-2.

 

[BondraTime]

I thought I remember seeing 3-2.

Korp

20	2024-03-16	43	29-323	OTT	@	NYI	W	W	3	33	30	.909	0	0	64:33
21	2024-03-09	41	29-316	OTT	@	SJS	L	L	2	21	19	.905	0	0	57:13
22	2023-11-16	11	29-202	OTT		DET	W	W	4	41	37	.902	0	0	64:58
23	2023-11-08	9	29-194	OTT	@	TOR	W	W	3	30	27	.900	0	0	60:00
24	2024-03-23	45	29-330	OTT	@	NJD	W	W	2	20	18	.900	0	0	59:52

Forsberg

12	2023-10-14	1	30-321	OTT		PHI	W	W	2	21	19	.905	0	0	59:44

Sorry 5-1

 

[UglyPuckling]

Just like the American election will come down to 40 000 votes - Sens get 15 more saves in their season and they are in the wild card spot.

Last night is the perfect example - Sens claw back, only 20 shots against and they give up that 3rd goal. deserved to win, but it’s a lose

Alfie said it best - when you’re good the margin between winning and losing seems to small you believe you can win every game. When you’re a losing team the margin to win seems immense, no matter what you do the game conspires against you to lose

Defensive lapses played a very important role in the loss last night. We played well enough otherwise, but a few coverage issues and other defensive lapses resulted in some unfortunate goals against.

 

[Micklebot]

Korp

20	2024-03-16	43	29-323	OTT	@	NYI	W	W	3	33	30	.909	0	0	64:33
21	2024-03-09	41	29-316	OTT	@	SJS	L	L	2	21	19	.905	0	0	57:13
22	2023-11-16	11	29-202	OTT		DET	W	W	4	41	37	.902	0	0	64:58
23	2023-11-08	9	29-194	OTT	@	TOR	W	W	3	30	27	.900	0	0	60:00
24	2024-03-23	45	29-330	OTT	@	NJD	W	W	2	20	18	.900	0	0	59:52

Forsberg

12	2023-10-14	1	30-321	OTT		PHI	W	W	2	21	19	.905	0	0	59:44

Sorry 5-1

Nyr for reference are 5-1-1 with Quick having both loses and Shesterkin perfect

Dal is 7-0-1

Bos is 4-2-1

Thats the three best teams in the league arguably, and we fit in fine.

 

[BondraTime]

Nyr for reference are 5-1-1 with Quick having both loses and Shesterkin perfect

Dal is 7-0-1

Bos is 4-2-1

Thats the three best teams in the league arguably, and we fit in fine.

Well, to be fair, those 5 wins coincided with the other teams getting .700-850 goaltending, and it still took overtime to win 2 of them.

 

[Micklebot]

Defensive lapses played a very important role in the loss last night. We played well enough otherwise, but a few coverage issues and other defensive lapses resulted in some unfortunate goals against.

Most of the time quality chances can be attributed to defensive lapses, people only tend to key in on the laps when it results in a goal though.

I thought the second goal was egregious but defensively the other two were typical stuff every team sees every game (aside from the bouncing puck on the game winner). You can't eliminate every breakdown, the wild certainly didn't, but they come away with no 5v5 goals against despite getting outplayed all night.

Games like last night will happen, I'm happy to say this one was well played, and not a loss due to the goalie, sometimes you don't get the bounces (that Batherson hand pass on the game winner being a prime example).

 

[UglyPuckling]

Most of the time quality chances can be attributed to defensive lapses, people only tend to key in on the laps when it results in a goal though.

I thought the second goal was egregious but defensively the other two were typical stuff every team sees every game (aside from the bouncing puck on the game winner). You can't eliminate every breakdown, the wild certainly didn't, but they come away with no 5v5 goals against despite getting outplayed all night.

Games like last night will happen, I'm happy to say this one was well played, and not a loss due to the goalie, sometimes you don't get the bounces (that Batherson hand pass on the game winner being a prime example).

Sure, defensive lapses that result in goals against get the most attention. That’s pretty obvious & I would not argue against that.

You’ve got to either outscore your opponent, or reduce the bad mistakes that lead to goals. Obviously doing both is the best. Maybe we had one too many defensive lapses/breakdowns and/or needed to score one more goal last night? That’s about all it takes to get a win versus a loss. The margin between victory & a loss can be quite thin.

I didn’t mind the game last night. We had a decent game, yet still lost which is good for the upcoming draft.

 

[bicboi64]

It would be nice to draft after Montreal and troll then like we did with the Brady pick.

I would love for this to happen. We're not bad enough for a bottom 5 pick, the least that can happen is the Habs pick right before us and have another Kotkaniemi situation.

 

[Tuna99]

I would love for this to happen. We're not bad enough for a bottom 5 pick, the least that can happen is the Habs pick right before us and have another Kotkaniemi situation.

The Habs have some big holes to fill this draft but they have drafted a nice balance on D and have some nice pieces up front and really nice depth pieces and they have the coach for it. Need speed and size up front but hard to believe they have been rebuilding for half the time Ottawa has and they already have a really nice group of players with glimpses of that annoying Habs spirit

 

[JD1]

Defensive lapses played a very important role in the loss last night. We played well enough otherwise, but a few coverage issues and other defensive lapses resulted in some unfortunate goals against.

You know, you're 100% right. That first goal against was played poorly by our 3 forwards. But geezus, that play is the story of our season. That puck went thru Korpi. If he makes that save, are we sitting here today in awe of that play? No. It's just another play in a game and the boys here are saying "Korpi made some nice saves last night"

You can't play perfect hockey and we simply don't get enough saves when we have these little breakdowns.

 

[UglyPuckling]

You know, you're 100% right. That first goal against was played poorly by our 3 forwards. But geezus, that play is the story of our season. That puck went thru Korpi. If he makes that save, are we sitting here today in awe of that play? No. It's just another play in a game and the boys here are saying "Korpi made some nice saves last night"

You can't play perfect hockey and we simply don't get enough saves when we have these little breakdowns.

Sure, even really good goalies don’t play perfect hockey.

If there was a save on that goal you are talking about, it would have resulted in a tie. Maybe we get it to overtime and win. Maybe we don’t. And, it wasn’t the only defensive lapse that led to a goal.

If we have the Korpse next year (sure, we hope he won’t be here), what’s the plan? Hopefully we’ll have a plan & methods to be better. If we can get two good goalies without other serious negative consequences, I’m all for it. 100%.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Well, to be fair, those 5 wins coincided with the other teams getting .700-850 goaltending, and it still took overtime to win 2 of them.

We reverse sensd them. We were due for them

 

[Flamingo]

Penguins, Red Wings, and Islanders won last night. Flyers lost.

Sens need to win out the rest of their schedule, and these teams to go on a skid.

Flyers: 82 pts, 6 GR -- worse than 3-3-0. (edit: whoops, they had 7 GR)
Red Wings: 82 pts, 7 GR -- worse than 3-4-0
Islanders: 79 pts, 8 GR - worse than 4-3-1
Devils: 76 pts, 8 GR - worse than 6-2-0
Penguins: 77 pts,, 8 GR - worse than 5-2-1
Sabres: 75 pts, 7 GR - worse than 6-0-1

Sens have an 86 point ceiling.

Flyers: 83 pts, 6 GR -- worse than 1-4-1
Capitals: 82 pts, 8 GR -- worse than 2-6-0
Red Wings: 82 pts, 7 GR -- worse than 2-5-0
Islanders: 81 pts, 7 GR - worse than 2-4-1
Penguins: 79 pts,, 7 GR - worse than 3-3-1
...etc...

 

[StoicSensFan]