Another Late Season Surge

[Tuna99]

???

Mackinnon made the playoffs twice before Makar joined the team.

^^^ And the Avs qualified without Makar a third time and he joined them only in the playoffs.

Never a bad time to add high end talent. Maker went 4th (Ottawas draft pick when the winning steak started) now they are 7th (Elias Andersen went 7 overall)

Drafting high matters to get Cups

 

[Sun God Nika]

Typically I would be pissed but this draft feels all over the place. Sens will likely get someone in their top 5 regardless where they end up

 

[Ice-Tray]

The players aren’t going to tank, and the GM isn’t going to insult the players and paying fans by tanking the team.

Just sit back and enjoy the better brand of hockey and hope it finally carries over to next season as usual.

Nothing else to be done as a fan, and with only a handful of games left, I’d personally like to see some wins

 

[Sting]

I wrote this in another thread but people underestimate the value of 2 positions in the draft. Quite literally, one or two extra wins means you're getting a Tyler Boucher instead of a Dylan Guenther.

The players will never mail it in, though. I don't believe players intentionally tank because there's too much at stake on an individual level.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Typically I would be pissed but this draft feels all over the place. Sens will likely get someone in their top 5 regardless where they end up

That's really the only saving grace this year. I haven't followed the kids much this season, but the general consensus seems to be the 2-10 picks are pretty close to being interchangeable.

Of course, once we get closer to the draft, it'll probably shake out to something closer to a 1, 2-4, 5-10 type split in ranks. But even then, the kids in this range still seem to be really close.

As long as the scouts don't try to play 'smartest guy in the room' again and go off the board, we should get a good prospect.


....it's still frustrating as hell, though. Where was this desire to win and hints of consistency earlier in the year? And when the hell is this team going to bring it for a full season?

 

[robsenz]

I'm not falling for it, I stopped watching the past maybe 15 games, which is completely unheard of. I have zero hype going into next season, they had no excuse this year to blow it like they did.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Never a bad time to add high end talent. Maker went 4th (Ottawas draft pick when the winning steak started) now they are 7th (Elias Andersen went 7 overall)

Drafting high matters to get Cups

And Rantanen was 10th overall while Zacha was 6th.

It happens. But the Avs DID make the playoffs multiple times without Makar.

 

[DylanSensFan]

The difference this season is that they are learning to play the right way during this surge. They look more defensively sound. They look like they are fighting for puck possession. They are doing a lot of things I never saw under the DJ regime.

 

[Tuna99]

And Rantanen was 10th overall while Zacha was 6th.

It happens. But the Avs DID make the playoffs multiple times without Makar.

Yes, but that’s not a Cup team without GM. Not even a consistent threat without him.

Ottawa adding a top player to our roster this draft, It’s a good thing

It sucks Ottawa has another bad season, but the reward is a good thing

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

We’ve been picking up “good habits” the last 5 years

Bounces usually take 60 games or so to start being lucky for the Sens

 

[Tuna99]

The difference this season is that they are learning to play the right way during this surge. They look more defensively sound. They look like they are fighting for puck possession. They are doing a lot of things I never saw under the DJ regime.

I think the next big step this team takes is when Stuztle Goes from ‘a plan TO attack’ to a plan OF attack’

I see Stutzle try every shift to make magic happen by trying as hard as he can - when Stutzle actually focuses his attack and is more deliberate in his puck control and building plays with his teammates every shift Ottawa will take another big step.

I see him just like McKinnon at Ottawa’s first Sweden trip - a super competative talent who wants to show everyone he can be a difference maker but he doesn’t have the playbook yet to do that. Once Stutzle attacks with purpose and not just with a bag of tricks Ottawa goes top 3 in the division.

 

[JD1]

I think the next big step this team takes is when Stuztle Goes from ‘a plan TO attack’ to a plan OF attack’

I see Stutzle try every shift to make magic happen by trying as hard as he can - when Stutzle actually focuses his attack and is more deliberate in his puck control and building plays with his teammates every shift Ottawa will take another big step.

I see him just like McKinnon at Ottawa’s first Sweden trip - a super competative talent who wants to show everyone he can be a difference maker but he doesn’t have the playbook yet to do that. Once Stutzle attacks with purpose and not just with a bag of tricks Ottawa goes top 3 in the division.

This team needed Stuetzle to step forward from last year. He stepped back.

The team needs him to become part of the elite and he sure looked like he was ready to do that at the end of last year.

With 90 points, he finished 19th in scoring last year. I kind of expected him to go top 15 this year but he's not close to that. Teams need that. It's rare that a top team can get by on depth scoring without that guy that's in the top of the league.

 

[BondraTime]

It's fools gold, as it is every year.

Take the lumps and get the better draft pick.

Going on a late season run does nothing except drop the pick.

Players might feel better, but it brings nothing to the table for the next season.

They won't be dropping lower than 9, but going from 5 to 9 is a very, very big drop and deal. They aren't going to have a tier of guys they view as equal and be happy to just get one.

 

[OgieO]

Its pretty sad when this team has had so many late season surges after being eliminated that we have different varieties. Is this the "Craig Anderson" where good goaltending appears and we win late and an indicator of future success. Or is this the "Tyler Boucher" where a completely meaningless surge late in the year costs us valuable draft position and ultimately leads to nothing but more failure. Anderson coming got us to the playoffs the following year. I am not as hopeful this year, this feels like fools gold. Had we not gone in the tank recently with that 0-6-1 I might have more optimism.

 

[Oscar The Grouch]

This team is the worst. Just lose for chrissssakes.

 

[TonySoprano11]

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It's fools gold, as it is every year.

Take the lumps and get the better draft pick.

Going on a late season run does nothing except drop the pick.

Players might feel better, but it brings nothing to the table for the next season.

They won't be dropping lower than 9, but going from 5 to 9 is a very, very big drop and deal. They aren't going to have a tier of guys they view as equal and be happy to just get one.

So what does the team need to do? Like does Jacques need to tell the guys to not play hard? Tell the goalies to not stop the puck.

All this complaining for late season surges and ruining the pick is all bs. We land where we land and unless we actually blew up the team at the trade deadline…there isn’t a way to avoid winning some games. We’re like 5-6-1 in the last 12 games… and people want us to like purposely play worse than that?

I truly do not believe we are as bad as like the 6-7 worst teams in the league. So I wouldn’t expect us in that range anyway.

 

[BondraTime]

So what does the team need to do? Like does Jacques need to tell the guys to not play hard? Tell the goalies to not stop the puck.

All this complaining for late season surges and ruining the pick is all bs. We land where we land and unless we actually blew up the team at the trade deadline…there isn’t a way to avoid winning some games. We’re like 5-6-1 in the last 12 games… and people want us to like purposely play worse than that?

I truly do not believe we are as bad as like the 6-7 worst teams in the league. So I wouldn’t expect us in that range anyway.

The team can continue to do what it’s doing. I’m not telling them to lose, I’m wishing they would lose. No NHLers are going to intentionally lose, that's for the GM's to do at the trade deadline, and we only had 1 rental player playoff teams wanted to take off the team. If Staios could have made the team worse by trading away guys, I'm sure he would have.

Them winning is worse for the team moving forward. Going on a late season run doesn’t magically make them better at the start of next year, we have enough evidence of that. We also have decades of evidence where picking higher is better for the team moving forward.

Us winning isn’t going to help the team at the start of next season, that myth is bizarre.

The higher they pick the better for the team. Dropping in the draft is bad for the team. Look no further than Dylan Guenther or Brandt Clarke in our lineup rather than Boucher.

We are a bad team, and are likely to be in the same type of boat next year. Hopefully they can get towards fighting for a playoff spot in the next season or two. They've been a bottom ~10 team in the league for the past 7 seasons, and are in that exact boat this season, and possibly will be next as well if serious moves aren't made

The complaining is happening because legitimately the exact same thing that’s happened now has f***ed them over completely in the draft, and has led to absolutely nothing at the start of the next season.

 

[Tuna99]

The big thing with Ottawa right now is when the storm comes (and they do get dominated despite the winning streak) they only give up 1 goal or NO goals. Earlier in the season when the opposition surge came they would give up 2-3-4 goals and be demoralized.

 

[jbeck5]

Looking at a streak of only wins will likely give you an inflated sv% with any team, extend to the full late season surge of 8-3-0, and we have a sv% of .902 in eleven games, which is just about average (slightly below).

Generally speaking, we have a team sv% of .931 in wins and .884 in loses, you see the same thing with other teams, NYR have a .949sv% in wins and .869 in loses for example.

They lost a combined 18-6 in 3 games in that stretch which was putrid hockey..

I would easily seperate that into 2 seperate hot streaks.

If course if you throw in the games in the middle where we were getting blown out, it's going to make the goaltending numbers look pedestrian.

But in the actual streaks of good play, the goaltending was good...which is big part of the reason of why we won those games. With good goaltending. Not average.

It only looks average when you throw in several blow out losses...but that wasn't exactly average goaltending or winning hockey... When they're actually playing winning hockey, they're getting good or great goaltending- not average.

Getting average goaltending and winning would imply the team is winning games 4-3 while allowing 25-30 shots, for example.

But most of those wins were allowing 2 or less goals on more than 20 shots.

It may be semantics, but when someone says they're winning games with average goaltending, I would expect to go to the games they win, and find average goaltending numbers...but I don't. I'm seeing good to great goaltending numbers on most wins.

We're not actually winning many games where we get .900-.910 save percentage. We do win some, yes, but most of our wins have come with good to great numbers.

I'm not convinced that this team is really strong with average goaltending. The numbers don't yet reflect that.

The goaltending needs to improve big time for next year, but so do the skaters. They aren't getting a pass from me. We need big time improvements from our forwards and defense as well.

 

[BondraTime]

They lost a combined 18-6 in 3 games in that stretch which was putrid hockey..

I would easily seperate that into 2 seperate hot streaks.

If course if you throw in the games in the middle where we were getting blown out, it's going to make the goaltending numbers look pedestrian.

But in the actual streaks of good play, the goaltending was good...which is big part of the reason of why we won those games. With good goaltending. Not average.

It only looks average when you throw in several blow out losses...but that wasn't exactly average goaltending or winning hockey... When they're actually playing winning hockey, they're getting good or great goaltending- not average.

Getting average goaltending and winning would imply the team is winning games 4-3 while allowing 25-30 shots, for example.

But most of those wins were allowing 2 or less goals on more than 20 shots.

It may be semantics, but when someone says they're winning games with average goaltending, I would expect to go to the games they win, and find average goaltending numbers...but I don't. I'm seeing good to great goaltending numbers on most wins.

We're not actually winning many games where we get .900-.910 save percentage. We do win some, yes, but most of our wins have come with good to great numbers.

I'm not convinced that this team is really strong with average goaltending. The numbers don't yet reflect that.

The goaltending needs to improve big time for next year, but so do the skaters. They aren't getting a pass from me. We need big time improvements from our forwards and defense as well.

The team has won 5 games this season with a save % from .900-.910

 

[JD1]

They lost a combined 18-6 in 3 games in that stretch which was putrid hockey..

I would easily seperate that into 2 seperate hot streaks.

If course if you throw in the games in the middle where we were getting blown out, it's going to make the goaltending numbers look pedestrian.

But in the actual streaks of good play, the goaltending was good...which is big part of the reason of why we won those games. With good goaltending. Not average.

It only looks average when you throw in several blow out losses...but that wasn't exactly average goaltending or winning hockey... When they're actually playing winning hockey, they're getting good or great goaltending- not average.

Getting average goaltending and winning would imply the team is winning games 4-3 while allowing 25-30 shots, for example.

But most of those wins were allowing 2 or less goals on more than 20 shots.

It may be semantics, but when someone says they're winning games with average goaltending, I would expect to go to the games they win, and find average goaltending numbers...but I don't. I'm seeing good to great goaltending numbers on most wins.

We're not actually winning many games where we get .900-.910 save percentage. We do win some, yes, but most of our wins have come with good to great numbers.

I'm not convinced that this team is really strong with average goaltending. The numbers don't yet reflect that.

The goaltending needs to improve big time for next year, but so do the skaters. They aren't getting a pass from me. We need big time improvements from our forwards and defense as well.

I think the problem you'll find with your theory is sample size.

Average shots against is 30. The 16th team in SA/60 happens to be us at 29.59.

28/30= .933
27/30=.9
26/30=.866

Average over a season might well be .901 but with a game sample average of 30, 2 goals against is great goaltending and 4 is awful.

What you're seeing is a string of games with only 2 goals against or 3 against in a game with a high count.

Winning a game with bad goaltending is a 5-4 or 6-4 type win, where the other team also got bad goaltending

The team has won 5 games this season with a save % from .900-.910

Part of the reason for that is it just doesn't happen often. See my post above

 

[bicboi64]

Makar to Colorado turned Colorado into a Cup winner and. He was drafted 6 years after McKinnon. They didn’t make the playoffs until Makar arrived

I interpreted this as us drafting an RD who is a beast and will help Stu choose chickpea pasta and start being a beast.

Hope Parekh is that RD

 

[Ice-Tray]

The team can continue to do what it’s doing. I’m not telling them to lose, I’m wishing they would lose. No NHLers are going to intentionally lose, that's for the GM's to do at the trade deadline, and we only had 1 rental player playoff teams wanted to take off the team. If Staios could have made the team worse by trading away guys, I'm sure he would have.

Them winning is worse for the team moving forward. Going on a late season run doesn’t magically make them better at the start of next year, we have enough evidence of that. We also have decades of evidence where picking higher is better for the team moving forward.

Us winning isn’t going to help the team at the start of next season, that myth is bizarre.

The higher they pick the better for the team. Dropping in the draft is bad for the team. Look no further than Dylan Guenther or Brandt Clarke in our lineup rather than Boucher.

We are a bad team, and are likely to be in the same type of boat next year. Hopefully they can get towards fighting for a playoff spot in the next season or two. They've been a bottom ~10 team in the league for the past 7 seasons, and are in that exact boat this season, and possibly will be next as well if serious moves aren't made

The complaining is happening because legitimately the exact same thing that’s happened now has f***ed them over completely in the draft, and has led to absolutely nothing at the start of the next season.

The problem is that there are still paying customers going to games who aren’t paying hundreds of dollars to watch a team purposely suck, nor are they secretly wishing the team loses.

The team and ownership obviously has a responsibility there.

Of course it’s easy to stop watching and wish for losses, but that’s only a portion of the story for the team and fans.

Folks are obviously free to complain about what they want, but it makes no difference in how things play out. This roster isn’t built to tank, and so it won’t.

 

[UglyPuckling]

Fans of course want the higher draft pick. But, I don’t think players or coaches will deliberately try to lose. Some are playing for their jobs, or maybe their next contract, and its not in their DNA to want to lose.

If people are looking for a bright spot out of this, maybe this late surge will help players who are available over the summer think more highly of the Senators when they weigh their options of where to go with their next contract. Yes, this is an optimistic idea.