Analyzing Dubas's Performance - III

[rumman]

Breaking news.
Man who finishes last deemed nice guy.

NHLPA's man of the year two years running...............

 

[Scruffers]

It's very clear to me that Dubas completely bungled this team during the offseason. Although he had made some pretty good moves during the 2018-19 season, he really damaged this team's assets (center depth, picks), locked us into an egregious contract, and still didn't address our RHD situation. I did some tinkering with how the 2019-20 offseason should have gone, and here's what our roster could have looked like heading into this year:

Salary Cap Maximum: $81,500,000 | Current Cap Hit: $81,484,000

Forwards:
Zach Hyman ($2.25M x 2) – Auston Matthews ($11.634M x 5) – William Nylander ($6.9M x 5)
Ilya Mikheyev ($925K x 1) – John Tavares ($11M x 6) – Mitchell Marner ($6.793M x 3)
[Cheap Grinder] ($775K x 1) – Nazem Kadri ($4.5M x 3) – Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2M x 3)
Jason Spezza ($700K x 1) – Pierre Engvall ($925K x 1) – Patrick Marleau ($6.25M x 1)

Extras:
Frederik Gauthier ($675K x 1), Denis Malgin ($750K x 1)

Defensemen:
Morgan Rielly ($5M x 2) – Cody Ceci ($4.5M x 1)
Jake Muzzin ($4M x 1) – Justin Holl ($675K x 1)
Travis Dermott ($863K x 1) – Henri Jokiharju [Or other D-Man] ($925K x 2)

Extras:
Calle Rosen ($750K x 2), Timothy Liljegren ($863K x 3), Rasmus Sandin ($894K x 3)

Goalies:
Frederik Andersen ($5M x 2)
Jack Campbell ($675K x 1)

The only real differences in this roster are that Marner was signed for a REASONABLE cap hit (similar to Brayden Point who put up 30-40 goal seasons in the previous two years, but ever so slightly higher than his cap hit while including Marner's favorite "93"), we traded Johnsson at his maximum value for a cheap young 3rd pairing RHD, and we filled out our 3rd line LW position with another UFA grinder while still keeping Kadri. Marleau gets relegated to the 4th line due to his play regressing, but his cap hit is also manageable meaning we can keep our 1st overall pick.

Basically, if we redid our 2019-20 roster moves, we'd regain our 2020 1st round pick, we'd have added some RHD depth via trading Johnsson, we'd have Marner at a more reasonable contract, and we'd still have Kadri. This team is much better than the one we iced this year, and we're better positioned for long term success with our 1st round pick + a depth RHD added to the roster while also having more cap space for a bigger addition to the blueline in 2020-21.

 

[Dekes For Days]

I'll bite. Whose official projection?

The NHL releases what the cap is projected to be in December-ish most years.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Cap percentage is measured by the first year the contract comes into effect.

Cap percentage is measured when it is signed. No reason to change that now.

Matthews contract is closer to McDavid's percentage-wise than Eichel.

That is incorrect. 14.6% is closer to 13.3% than 16.7%.

The NHL often had jumps of 4.5m or more.

It has jumped by that much only one other time in the 50/50 split CBA.

If the Leafs didn't value Matthews at a higher Cap hit than Eichel over just 4 years, so times 9.9m (just 100k less than Eichel's salary)

10m is not the comparable number for Eichel. It was signed under a different cap.

unless you think Matthews is worth more than Eichel cap-hit wise over 4 years than Eichel is over 8.

Yeah, there's a good case he was. Eichel was not very good when he signed. They overpaid for the 8 years.

if you want to use the Stamkos deal as a comparable

Matthews was better than Stamkos, even before we consider the impact on production of playing with Martin St Louis.

 

[DarkKnight]

The NHL releases what the cap is projected to be in December-ish most years.

March

NHL salary cap projected to rise next season

 

[Superstar]

In his defense of Ceci, Dubas cited that the team use a different set of analytics / data than what is publicly available.

I wonder if that same set of tools highlighted Barrie as a great piece?

You have to question whether the tools the team use are... flawed? Or if the way they interpret said data is flawed?

Dubas playing darts over a spreadsheet blindfolded? That seems about right.

 

[Dekes For Days]

March

It used to be December. They pushed it back this year because of how much they screwed up the year before. And ironically, because of the pandemic, they were still more off than ever before.

 

[93LEAFS]

Cap percentage is measured when it is signed. No reason to change that now.

That is incorrect. 14.6% is closer to 13.3% than 16.7%.

It has jumped by that much only one other time in the 50/50 split CBA.

10m is not the comparable number for Eichel. It was signed under a different cap.

Yeah, there's a good case he was. Eichel was not very good when he signed. They overpaid for the 8 years.

Matthews was better than Stamkos, even before we consider the impact on production of playing with Martin St Louis.

No, you measure cap-hit by the first year of the cap-hit. Otherwise you have some crazy measurements which make Marner and Matthews cap-hits measured by different cap-hits. Matthews's cap hit is closer to McDavid's using any logical form of the measurement you are trying to use. The way you are using it makes no logical sense. Teams know and expect the cap to go up. So, using the previous year makes no sense using that logic, if the cap-hit never applies in that year. It is more flawed than applying it to the next years cap. How do you think GM's measure it, by the date signed, or the first year under the cap? There is no consistent way outside the way capfriendly does it. It isn't some industry standard like you are trying to claim. It makes no sense to apply cap percentage to a year the contract never applies to, especially when the cap almost always rises pre-pandemic. The cap prior to this has never stayed flat and was never expected to, so why you would apply it to the previous year?

The numbers, as I've said repeatedly are. It's in between but slightly closer to McDavid, despite being 3 years less. The contract was terribly negotiated. That doesn't mean I don't love Matthews as a player, but we overpaid for the privilege of having him.

Eichel: 12.6%
Matthews: 14.2%
McDavid: 15.7%

There is no case Matthews deserves the same cap-hit over 4 as Eichel deserves over 8. And, why don't you focus on McDavid, Matthews cap-hit over 8 would be as big or bigger than McDavid's. The comparable number to Eichel would be 10.25.

Was Stamkos really worse than Matthews? He won a Rocket, had a top 10 Hart finish, and post season all-star team. Something Matthews hasn't accomplished. Even if Matthews is slightly better, he's not a full 2.5% full cap % points better.

 

[Gallagbi]

March

NHL salary cap projected to rise next season

Dec 3, 2018

Matthews signed 2 months later

 

[Stephen]

Was Stamkos really worse than Matthews? He won a Rocket, had a top 10 Hart finish, and post season all-star team. Something Matthews hasn't accomplished. Even if Matthews is slightly better, he's not a full 2.5% full cap % points better.

I have a hard time with the notion that Steven Stamkos is worse than Auston Matthews. I think Auston Matthews is only now scratching the surface of the player he will become, and I certainly wouldn't have Stamkos in Matthews' place, but in 2018-19 when Matthews signed his contract, Stamkos was in the midst of a 45 goal, 98 point season, which was higher than what Matthews was on pace for (44 goals, 88 points). Even this season, in his injury plagued state, Stamkos was on a 1.16 point pace to Matthews 1.14 point pace, trailing behind in goal production. I think Stamkos has been around for a while and is no longer one of the up and coming names in the game. His career has been marred by some devastating injuries. But he's still elite in production, and at his cap hit, though tempered by injuries, is still a bargain. I wouldn't take over Matthews, but I'd take Stamkos over Tavares 10 times out of 10.

 

[Antropovsky]

What I hate about Kapanen is that he doesn’t seem to have good chemistry with anyone. Hopefully he takes a step next year. Otherwise the decision to trade Kadri and not move Kapanen seems to be a bad decision.

 

[93LEAFS]

I have a hard time with the notion that Steven Stamkos is worse than Auston Matthews. I think Auston Matthews is only now scratching the surface of the player he will become, and I certainly wouldn't have Stamkos in Matthews' place, but in 2018-19 when Matthews signed his contract, Stamkos was in the midst of a 45 goal, 98 point season, which was higher than what Matthews was on pace for (44 goals, 88 points). Even this season, in his injury plagued state, Stamkos was on a 1.16 point pace to Matthews 1.14 point pace, trailing behind in goal production. I think Stamkos has been around for a while and is no longer one of the up and coming names in the game. His career has been marred by some devastating injuries. But he's still elite in production, and at his cap hit, though tempered by injuries, is still a bargain. I wouldn't take over Matthews, but I'd take Stamkos over Tavares 10 times out of 10.

I'm talking about Stamkos in 2009/10, 2010/2011. If Matthews got the same contract adjusted for cap, it would be 9.5m over 5, which sounds closer to what he should have got than what we gave him. Malkin as the comparrison seems ridiculous to me, given Malkin was a first team all-star and 2nd in the Art Ross and Hart voting when he got his 5 year 8.7m deal.

 

[Toronto makebeleifs]

No gm is perfect. That's why there is usually a different team that wins the cup each year. Now, for actual analysis. Dubas has had the reins now for a good 3 years ish. He has absolutely overpaid players, however, I'd much rather overpay a star player as opposed to wasting 4-5m on depth players. If you're going to overpay, overpay for legitimate talent. Could he have been harder-sure, but I'm not going to fault a guy for keeping top line talent happy. The glaring weaknesses of the team have been bungled. The leafs could have kept mcellenhy (sp*) and leveraged sparks for something when his trade value was high (hindsight being 20/20). Instead, we lost mac, sparks was a bust, hutch was trash, then we spent assets that otherwise didn't need to be spent to get Campbell. I like Campbell, but the road that was taken to get him was filled with unnecessary pitfalls. Our defence has been a joke imo ever since the kaberle McCabe era ended. Rielly was a great starting piece, he was involved in drafting dermott (who I still think has more to give), and has acquired some decent defence pipeline talent in lily, sandin, kral, duszak et al. He has attempted to address some of the big team issues as well with the acquisition of muzzin, which by all accounts has been a very good trade. I'd like to see more wheeling and dealing like that. Another concern would be filling the depth chart with legitimate, affordable talent. One thing I cannot fault the leafs staff for is acquiring overseas talent and vets to fill those roles. Spezza has been better than advertised, mikeyev has been excellent, and we have the acquisitions of barabanov and lehtonen to potentially replace players leaving the team. I understand that there were potential assets that could have been dealt for a return ie. Bozak, jvr, Gardiner... however, it's difficult to justify shipping guys out when you're trying to promote a culture of winning and those are the guys that got you there.

The unabashed failures are there too. Trading marleau for a 1st was a gamble that has backfired completely, I'll be truly upset if car manages to snag a guy like holtz in that spot. The kadri trade I also can only barely defend given how it looked on paper. The leafs got back a 3rd liner and a supposed top 4 d (for 2m and change no less). What actually happened was kadri was exactly as advertised for col and we got schooled. At the time of the trade I thought it looked good, again... hindsight.

All in all, I see dubas as a gm that is still learning, has a good eye for high end talent, is above average at the draft, average to below average at depth contract negotiations, is not good at hard negotiations with talent, and has a difficult grasp on the construction of an NHL team vs. An ahl or junior team. Lower leagues can get away with high octane overpowering teams, the NHL cannot. He seems to be starting to understand how crucial a balanced team is, but still has a ways to go.

Tl;Dr he's good at some aspects and bad at others. It took David poile a long time to build a well balanced team in Nashville, give our guy some time

 

[DarkKnight]

Dec 3, 2018

Matthews signed 2 months later

Have zero idea where that response applies.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Teams know and expect the cap to go up.

But not how much. You're ignoring what they were actually signed against, so that the Matthews signing looks worse. It is actually much more likely that Matthews was signed with a bigger jump in mind. McDavid and Eichel were signed with smaller recent jumps of 1-2 million. Matthews was signed after one of the biggest jumps in that CBA, after the projection of another big jump to 83 mil came out (which would have been right if not for the NHLPA altering their cap escalator use), and with a clearer picture of the immediate future resulting in significant increases to the cap.

There is no consistent way outside the way capfriendly does it. It isn't some industry standard like you are trying to claim.

Signing cap percentage is very widely accepted.

There is no case Matthews deserves the same cap-hit over 4 as Eichel deserves over 8.

Yes there is. I've already presented it. Eichel was not very good when he signed. They paid a heavy price for the 8 years.

And, why don't you focus on McDavid, Matthews cap-hit over 8 would be as big or bigger than McDavid's.

It wouldn't. It would be just under, which is where he should be. It would actually be well under what the Oilers actually negotiated him to.

The comparable number to Eichel would be 10.25.

It's at least 10.6m.

Was Stamkos really worse than Matthews?

Yes.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Have zero idea where that response applies.

I said they usually release cap projections in December. You said March. He provided you a link to a December release, because that's when they did it before this year, when the discussed players would have signed.

 

[cesareborgia]

It's very clear to me that Dubas completely bungled this team during the offseason. Although he had made some pretty good moves during the 2018-19 season, he really damaged this team's assets (center depth, picks), locked us into an egregious contract, and still didn't address our RHD situation. I did some tinkering with how the 2019-20 offseason should have gone, and here's what our roster could have looked like heading into this year:

Salary Cap Maximum: $81,500,000 | Current Cap Hit: $81,484,000

Forwards:
Zach Hyman ($2.25M x 2) – Auston Matthews ($11.634M x 5) – William Nylander ($6.9M x 5)
Ilya Mikheyev ($925K x 1) – John Tavares ($11M x 6) – Mitchell Marner ($6.793M x 3)
[Cheap Grinder] ($775K x 1) – Nazem Kadri ($4.5M x 3) – Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2M x 3)
Jason Spezza ($700K x 1) – Pierre Engvall ($925K x 1) – Patrick Marleau ($6.25M x 1)

Extras:
Frederik Gauthier ($675K x 1), Denis Malgin ($750K x 1)

Defensemen:
Morgan Rielly ($5M x 2) – Cody Ceci ($4.5M x 1)
Jake Muzzin ($4M x 1) – Justin Holl ($675K x 1)
Travis Dermott ($863K x 1) – Henri Jokiharju [Or other D-Man] ($925K x 2)

Extras:
Calle Rosen ($750K x 2), Timothy Liljegren ($863K x 3), Rasmus Sandin ($894K x 3)

Goalies:
Frederik Andersen ($5M x 2)
Jack Campbell ($675K x 1)

The only real differences in this roster are that Marner was signed for a REASONABLE cap hit (similar to Brayden Point who put up 30-40 goal seasons in the previous two years, but ever so slightly higher than his cap hit while including Marner's favorite "93"), we traded Johnsson at his maximum value for a cheap young 3rd pairing RHD, and we filled out our 3rd line LW position with another UFA grinder while still keeping Kadri. Marleau gets relegated to the 4th line due to his play regressing, but his cap hit is also manageable meaning we can keep our 1st overall pick.

Basically, if we redid our 2019-20 roster moves, we'd regain our 2020 1st round pick, we'd have added some RHD depth via trading Johnsson, we'd have Marner at a more reasonable contract, and we'd still have Kadri. This team is much better than the one we iced this year, and we're better positioned for long term success with our 1st round pick + a depth RHD added to the roster while also having more cap space for a bigger addition to the blueline in 2020-21.

Wow, rational moves that actually make the team better. Why weren't they done in reality? Almost as if our GM is an unqualified moron.

 

[Gallagbi]

Have zero idea where that response applies.

Lol, good one

 

[DarkKnight]

Lol, good one

I just liked Dekes explaining it, so you keep laughing. Didn’t read back far enough, my bad. Odd.

 

[KingJoffrey]

Lou's goons already 2nd time in the row in top 8. Some top end talent, a great coach and slightly above average goalie. And that bring them results.

And it also show what a good GM with experience can do when you compare it to this self righteous brat boy. Who only got his first job, because of his rich dad.

It will be the best day in the last 50 years in Leafs history when this bum gets fired.

 

[mrbagina]

I think keeping the core here long term played a role in that, but also that the "on-ice" philosophical conflict is a different one than many think.
People project tough physical hockey because of where he sits relative to Dubas and all his "gud pro" talk, prime Babcock's MO has always been turn the other cheek tactical hockey with a lot of the fire, fun, and aggression coached out of his players. People project him as a Sutter at the WJC's- fantastic defensively but also tough as nails and hard to play against, but people forget that he took a team that could have run the tournament of rink in every facet of the game (physicality/offense/defense) and coached them to an (albeit tactically perfect) series of passive 2-1 wins, and that his Red Wings post HOF group were the biggest push overs in the league.

I fully expect the visible "give a shit" of this team -push back, aggression, sticking up for each other- to increase a lot, because it already has.

Spot on re Babs teams, however your last paragraph while I fully agree with the first part but the last part saying it the push back stand up for your teammates already has increased a lot? I wish I would see what your seeing but I saw none of that, spatterings here and there but nothing to write home about.

 

[justashadowof]

It's very clear to me that Dubas completely bungled this team during the offseason. Although he had made some pretty good moves during the 2018-19 season, he really damaged this team's assets (center depth, picks), locked us into an egregious contract, and still didn't address our RHD situation. I did some tinkering with how the 2019-20 offseason should have gone, and here's what our roster could have looked like heading into this year:

Salary Cap Maximum: $81,500,000 | Current Cap Hit: $81,484,000

Forwards:
Zach Hyman ($2.25M x 2) – Auston Matthews ($11.634M x 5) – William Nylander ($6.9M x 5)
Ilya Mikheyev ($925K x 1) – John Tavares ($11M x 6) – Mitchell Marner ($6.793M x 3)
[Cheap Grinder] ($775K x 1) – Nazem Kadri ($4.5M x 3) – Kasperi Kapanen ($3.2M x 3)
Jason Spezza ($700K x 1) – Pierre Engvall ($925K x 1) – Patrick Marleau ($6.25M x 1)

Extras:
Frederik Gauthier ($675K x 1), Denis Malgin ($750K x 1)

Defensemen:
Morgan Rielly ($5M x 2) – Cody Ceci ($4.5M x 1)
Jake Muzzin ($4M x 1) – Justin Holl ($675K x 1)
Travis Dermott ($863K x 1) – Henri Jokiharju [Or other D-Man] ($925K x 2)

Extras:
Calle Rosen ($750K x 2), Timothy Liljegren ($863K x 3), Rasmus Sandin ($894K x 3)

Goalies:
Frederik Andersen ($5M x 2)
Jack Campbell ($675K x 1)

The only real differences in this roster are that Marner was signed for a REASONABLE cap hit (similar to Brayden Point who put up 30-40 goal seasons in the previous two years, but ever so slightly higher than his cap hit while including Marner's favorite "93"), we traded Johnsson at his maximum value for a cheap young 3rd pairing RHD, and we filled out our 3rd line LW position with another UFA grinder while still keeping Kadri. Marleau gets relegated to the 4th line due to his play regressing, but his cap hit is also manageable meaning we can keep our 1st overall pick.

Basically, if we redid our 2019-20 roster moves, we'd regain our 2020 1st round pick, we'd have added some RHD depth via trading Johnsson, we'd have Marner at a more reasonable contract, and we'd still have Kadri. This team is much better than the one we iced this year, and we're better positioned for long term success with our 1st round pick + a depth RHD added to the roster while also having more cap space for a bigger addition to the blueline in 2020-21.

In my version of that fantasy lineup, Matthews signs for $7.5M AAV, Carey Price is our backup at league minimum and Punch Imlach is the coach. It's just as realistic.

However there's some truth that the Leafs could have just lumped the Marleau contract, squeezed Marner a bit (~1M), moved out one of Johnsson or Kapanen, lumped it on defense until sourcing a mid-season defense addition... Also Dubas could have refused to take a qualified Ceci in return for Zaitsev.

 

[Leafsfan74]

The Leafs path has been very odd, my argument always goes back to the Nylander signing. I always preface it with, "it's not personal" about Nylander, he got his max, others can argue the nickel and dime of it all.

For me, as I stated at the time before (and after) he was signed, my contention is that the Leafs decision to NOT trade him for what could have been a great backend pickup, is what I disagree with. I also believe that they probably sign M and M for less. The last assertion is debatable but I stand by it.

Below were the NHL standings on Nov 30th, 2018, just before the Nylander signing (and even before they added Muzzin!). To me THIS team, at this moment, was the best it's been the last four years. Kappy had a bigger role, and filled it. Look at the teams defensive numbers. Did Nylander showing the world "hey, I can withhold services and get paid REALLY well", upset the chemistry of the team as their two big stars were about to hit their jackpot? I don't know. I don't think it helped.

I have no doubt the pressure was on Dubas. It came from many sides, and it was wrong headed decision to be held hostage, instead of getting the best return for the need you had, for a team that was flying on all cylinders.

Also, I have always stated that Kadri had to be traded. Like it or not. If Leafs win that series and Kadri comes back, he probably isn't traded, as he could make amends with his teammate and coaches, "no harm no foul, since we won the series". After they lost, the bitterness was too strong from players to ownership.

Here is where the Leafs stood just BEFORE they signed Nylander when he sat and withdrew services.


NHL Scores for November 30, 2018 | Hockey-Reference.com

At this point he Leafs line was 26 GP, 18 Wins, 8 losses, 93 GF (3rd highest in the league), 67 goals against (third LOWEST in the league, yes, that's what I said, LOWEST in the league)

Highest ROW in the league at 18. I saw a team that was fast, hungry, learning and committing to the Babcock system, players comfortable with who they were playing with and simply domimating other teams at times.

What changed? Quite a few things.

 

[justashadowof]

Signs that a GM may be on the clock:
1. He plays a recent draft pick ahead of schedule as an advertisement for his drafting success.
2. He doubles down on an acquired player who didn't excel (re-signs, insists on usage of that player) even at a cost because otherwise it underlines the failure of a recent trade.
3. He changes assistant coaches.
4. He doesn't frame a failure as a failure but as a learning opportunity.
5. He uses future assets (prospects, high draft picks) to make a major addition for a single season.

 

[Throw More Waffles]

By the end of the season, pretty much everybody here will be as angry as I've been at the contracts Dubas gave out. Not just merely annoyed... but furious. And things will get very nasty in Toronto.

Leafs on ice results now and playoffs - Who is more to blame?

Nailed it.

August last year, there were only a handful of people criticizing Dubas. Now? There are only a handful of people defending Dubas. And things have gotten pretty nasty in Toronto. I saw this coming a mile away.

Any defense of the overpayments was always "the cap is going up like crazy soon". But now with Covid and the flat cap... I think Marner is going to have to be traded. Sucks... but I see no other solution.