Proposal: Anaheim - Winnipeg

[Ducksgo*]

but what is the basis for that? AHL stats vs NCAA stats?

You know me I don't believe in statistic bullcrap that's oftenly used here. I go by projections, and scouts have projected Connor being a bonfide top 6 player when Ritchie was a gamble and we had to groom him. Almost the same we have to in Jones. So yes Connor 100%

 

[KaseMeOutside]

You know me I don't believe in statistic bullcrap that's oftenly used here. I go by projections, and scouts have projected Connor being a bonfide top 6 player when Ritchie was a gamble and we had to groom him. Almost the same we have to in Jones. So yes Connor 100%

Ritchie has been projected as a top 6 forward, the negative opinions on him would be substantially different if he had spent the entire season in SD and put up 30 goals.

 

[kyle o connor]

but what is the basis for that? AHL stats vs NCAA stats?

If it's comparing only d+1 seasons, it's in AINEC territory.

 

[Goose of Reason]

If it's comparing only d+1 seasons, it's in AINEC territory.

Connor had the better D+1 season I'll give him that but I'm not sure it's in AINEC territory. Ritchie was phenomenal in the playoffs for the Greyhounds, finished 4th in playoff scoring playing one less round than anyone else ahead of him. He was the only player in the top 10 that didn't play in the finals.

That being said, Connor is probably the better prospect though power forwards take more time to develop traditionally.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

How?

Both Trouba and Lindholm will likely put up 1st line numbers this upcoming season. If you believe things like analytics you can look at things like Hero charts to see believed progression based on past performance. Yes Lindholm is still better, but both deserve to be on the 1st line.

There is a way to compare NCAA points to AHL points. Believe it is called NHL Equivalencies and it compares AHL, NCAA, QMJHL points and translates it to believed possible NHL point production.

If you use NHL Equivalencies, you can compare Connor to Ritchie. But don't take my word on it. You can research it yourself and reach your own conclusions.
Now there seems to be flaws in this system as far as projected compared to actual point put up based in the NHL, but as far as I know it's the only thing available for comparison. Someone much more involved in analytics (anybody with a pulse ) could explain it or recommend a better system ?

On a side note Nic Petan played 26 NHL games last season partly due to injury and put up 6 points while playing with some pretty horrible players some games.

Nick Ritchie played 33 games and only put up 4 points, I'm assuming he had a few bad line mates as well during that time, but again, there is a difference.

If Nick Ritchie is putting up less points than Petan after playing more games, why would you think Kyle Connor and Nick Ritchie would even be close comparables?

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Both Trouba and Lindholm will likely put up 1st line numbers this upcoming season. If you believe things like analytics you can look at things like Hero charts to see believed progression based on past performance. Yes Lindholm is still better, but both deserve to be on the 1st line.

There is a way to compare NCAA points to AHL points. Believe it is called NHL Equivalencies and it compares AHL, NCAA, QMJHL points and translates it to believed possible NHL point production.

If you use NHL Equivalencies, you can compare Connor to Ritchie. But don't take my word on it. You can research it yourself and reach your own conclusions.
Now there seems to be flaws in this system as far as projected compared to actual point put up based in the NHL, but as far as I know it's the only thing available for comparison. Someone much more involved in analytics (anybody with a pulse ) could explain it or recommend a better system ?

On a side note Nic Petan played 26 NHL games last season partly due to injury and put up 6 points while playing with some pretty horrible players some games.

Nick Ritchie played 33 games and only put up 4 points, I'm assuming he had a few bad line mates as well during that time, but again, there is a difference.

If Nick Ritchie is putting up less points than Petan after playing more games, why would you think Kyle Connor and Nick Ritchie would even be close comparables?

This is where you lose me, the ducks never projected Ritchie to play in the NHL last year, he was supposed to spend the whole year in the AHL but injuries and circumstance rushed up the time table. Point being he was not ready. If he had spent the whole year in the AHL and put up 30 goals and 60 points people would be looking at him differently. I am not saying Ritchie is a better prospect than Connor I honestly do not know, i'm just saying it's hard to compare stats vs men and stats vs 18-22 year olds

I mean also not to mention a 33 and 26 game sample size is pretty small, we have no idea how Connor would fair.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

How Lindholm is the better player between the two defenseman. If anything it's an equal trade because Connor is involved. Also I know WPG first is going to be mid to late first and Ritchie is a very very solid prospect who is Anaheims up and comer.

I see it equal as this
Lindholm>>Trouba
Connor>Ritchie
Late first

It's pretty damn equal IMO.

Disagree strongly.
Lindholm> Trouba but not by much. Keep in mind that Lindholm has never had to partner Stuart.
Connor>>>>> Ritchie

Lindholm for Trouba + Lemieux and Anaheim is the clear winner.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Disagree strongly.
Lindholm> Trouba but not by much. Keep in mind that Lindholm has never had to partner Stuart.
Connor>>>>> Ritchie

Lindholm for Trouba + Lemieux and Anaheim is the clear winner.

Lindholm's two d partners were Casual Kevin Bieksa, and rookie Josh Manson. And every single player on Anaheim's roster was better when Lindholm was on the ice.

Trouba is a level below Lindholm so no Lemieux does not get it done.

 

[Ducks in a row]

Lindholm for Trouba + Lemieux and Anaheim is the clear winner.

Lindholm is the better defenseman and who knows what will happen with Lemieux he could becoming a career AHL player or be a bottom 6 NHL player at best. Downgrading from Lindholm to Trouba so we can get Lemieux is not a clear win for the Ducks.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

This is where you lose me, the ducks never projected Ritchie to play in the NHL last year, he was supposed to spend the whole year in the AHL but injuries and circumstance rushed up the time table. Point being he was not ready. If he had spent the whole year in the AHL and put up 30 goals and 60 points people would be looking at him differently. I am not saying Ritchie is a better prospect than Connor I honestly do not know, i'm just saying it's hard to compare stats vs men and stats vs 18-22 year olds

I mean also not to mention a 33 and 26 game sample size is pretty small, we have no idea how Connor would fair.

I understand your point of view and what you are trying to say. As Jet fans we have a bias. Connor was our highest ranked draft pick prior to the draft lottery. Connors overall points in the NCAA were comparable to Eichel. I'm not saying he is ever going to be as good as Eichel but when comparing points, a lot of Jet fans were obviously very excited that there might be some similarity.
So although Connor has never played an NHL game, there is some expectation that he might be able to immediately slot into a NHL teams line up. Just look at Vesey. He wasn't even in the top 10 last season in points when he won the Hobey Baker over Connor and teams and fans are drooling over him.
I hope this helps to explain why many Jets fans including myself hold the value of Connor so high.
When comparing Connor to players that were in the NCAA that have reached the NHL, there is belief based on previous players that he should turn out to be a top 6 forward.
But yes you are right, he still needs to play some NHL games, or even a season or two to know if he will reach the potential we believe he has.

 

[KaseMeOutside]

Jet fans have every reason to be high on Connor and see him as untouchable seasons like he had don't happen all the time in NCAA, I just don't know how that compares vs a season in the AHL and what the relative competition difference is.

 

[JetsHomer]

Jet fans have every reason to be high on Connor and see him as untouchable seasons like he had don't happen all the time in NCAA, I just don't know how that compares vs a season in the AHL and what the relative competition difference is.

People are really underselling just how great of a year Connor had last year. Only 4 U19 players have beat his 1.78 ppg pace over the last 25 years, and all of them did it in the early 90's. Martin St. Louis, Paul Kariya, Brenden Morrison and Eric Pernier.

1 Hall of famer, 1 PPG superstar, 1 good top 6 forward and 1 bust. All beat Connor's numbers when scoring was much higher.

It would be foolish to trade Connor until we know what we have in him.

 

[Ducksgo*]

Lindholm's two d partners were Casual Kevin Bieksa, and rookie Josh Manson. And every single player on Anaheim's roster was better when Lindholm was on the ice.

Trouba is a level below Lindholm so no Lemieux does not get it done.

I agree with this and I'm still on the side of it being an equal trade from the OP. Would I trade Lindholm? No but it is fair value

 

[Not So Mighty]

The problem with the trade and all modifications to it within this thread is that the end result is always that Anaheim is downgrading their #1 defenseman just to take a chance on some prospects that will maybe, possibly, hopefully be Top 6 some day.

There's no reason to do it, regardless of fair value. If Lindholm is traded, it will not be for fair value. It will be for a stomach churning overpayment by the other team. Lindholm is critical to the Ducks franchise now and in the future.

 

[Nickel eye Heel hers]

Screen_shot_2011-08-11_at_2
To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:

[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

NCAA .41

AHL .44

Using NHLE to compare Nick Ritchie and Kyle Connor because they played in different leagues last year.
NHLE projects Kyle Connor a 61 points based on a full NHL season
NHLE projects Nick Ritchie a 28.48 points based on a full NHL season. This was only based on games played while in AHL last season.
http://www.matchsticksandgasoline.com/2011/8/12/2357969/understanding-advanced-stats-part-three-nhle-and-pdo

Just posting for KEEROLE. hoping it helps in comparison to AHL vs NCAA players and other leagues

 

[mytduxfan*]

But he is.

Then again if Ritchie has a 3rd line ceiling and Connor is apparently going to be much better it's easy to see where your evaluations come from

people act like Ritchie is bad, he was really good in the AHL. I know Connor had a monster season in NCAA, but 16/14 in 38 AHL games is pretty good too. He struggled at the NHL level, but he was never supposed to play for the ducks last year anyways.

Agreed, so sick of this BS narrative that Ritchie is a bust because he didn't explode onto the scene. As far as the trade:

Lindholm >>> Trouba

Lindholm is untouchable. I want nothing to do with Trouba and his ridiculous contract demands. I'm not confident he'll even work out. His development hasn't been as smooth as you'd expect for a future franchise #1D (as he's described by WPG fans).

Meanwhile, Connor hasn't done **** in the NHL. His value isn't high or low, he's just an unknown quantity at this point. He's not getting moved because (a) WPG won't move him in case he is a superstar in the making, and (b) no team is giving you the value of his potential because he's an unknown at the NHL level.

I'm happy to keep Ritchie. I'm not some "what have you done for me lately fan" that thinks a 20 year old PWF is a bust because of a 33 game stint were Ritchie was clearly out of his depth in terms of conditioning only. Connor could quite easily come up next season and do just as poorly. Anyway, any deal involving Lindholm = no go.

 

[Whileee]

Agreed, so sick of this BS narrative that Ritchie is a bust because he didn't explode onto the scene. As far as the trade:

Lindholm >>> Trouba

Lindholm is untouchable. I want nothing to do with Trouba and his ridiculous contract demands. I'm not confident he'll even work out. His development has been as smooth as you'd expect for a future franchise #1D (as he's described by WPG fans).

Meanwhile, Connor hasn't done **** in the NHL. His value isn't high or low, he's just an unknown quantity at this point. He's not getting moved because (a) WPG won't move him in case he is a superstar in the making, and (b) no team is giving you the value of his potential because he's an unknown at the NHL level.

I'm happy to keep Ritchie. I'm not some "what have you done for me lately fan" that thinks a 20 year old PWF is a bust because of a 33 game stint were Ritchie was clearly out of his depth in terms of conditioning only. Connor could quite easily come up next season and do just as poorly. Anyway, any deal involving Lindholm = no go.

I understand the reluctance to move Lindholm for Trouba, but the narrative about Trouba's "ridiculous contract demands" is a bit old and tiring, especially considering that the Ducks haven't signed Lindholm yet despite him being their #1 D. Perhaps it's because of his ridiculous contact demands.

 

[mytduxfan*]

Disagree strongly.
Lindholm> Trouba but not by much. Keep in mind that Lindholm has never had to partner Stuart.
Connor>>>>> Ritchie

Lindholm for Trouba + Lemieux and Anaheim is the clear winner.

Lol... Trouba was awful this passed season. Anyway, Lindholm is untouchable, so it's a hard "no" to anything you offer.

Screen_shot_2011-08-11_at_2
To calculate a player's NHLE, we use the following formula:

[(Points ÷ Games Played) x 82] x League NHLE Value=NHLE

NCAA .41

AHL .44

Using NHLE to compare Nick Ritchie and Kyle Connor because they played in different leagues last year.
NHLE projects Kyle Connor a 61 points based on a full NHL season
NHLE projects Nick Ritchie a 28.48 points based on a full NHL season. This was only based on games played while in AHL last season.
http://www.matchsticksandgasoline.com/2011/8/12/2357969/understanding-advanced-stats-part-three-nhle-and-pdo

Just posting for KEEROLE. hoping it helps in comparison to AHL vs NCAA players and other leagues

Look, I'll accept an argument that Connor has the higher upside to Ritchie, but this article is quite possibly the biggest load of ********* I've ever seen.

 

[mytduxfan*]

I understand the reluctance to move Lindholm for Trouba, but the narrative about Trouba's "ridiculous contract demands" is a bit old and tiring, especially considering that the Ducks haven't signed Lindholm yet despite him being their #1 D. Perhaps it's because of his ridiculous contact demands.

The difference is that the Ducks aren't a cap team and we're trying to re-sign Rakell and Lindholm. Meanwhile, WPG has 10M to spend on re-signing just Trouba. If WPG really believed in Trouba being a future franchise #1D, surely they'd just lock him up. I mean, they have the money sitting right there. Therefore, it's likely that WPG isn't quite as sold on Trouba as it's fans or Trouba is straight up asking for too much this early in his career.

For us, given our financial limitations, it's quite possible that BM is actually looking for a bridge deal for both players. Not that hard of a sell on Rakell given the comparables i.e. Toffoli, JT Miller, etc. However, the same cannot be said for Lindholm, who is probably looking for a deal akin to that of Jones, Reilly, etc.

 

[johna2626]

The difference is that the Ducks aren't a cap team and we're trying to re-sign Rakell and Lindholm. Meanwhile, WPG has 10M to spend on re-signing just Trouba. If WPG really believed in Trouba being a future franchise #1D, surely they'd just lock him up. I mean, they have the money sitting right there. Therefore, it's likely that WPG isn't quite as sold on Trouba as it's fans or Trouba is straight up asking for too much this early in his career.

For us, given our financial limitations, it's quite possible that BM is actually looking for a bridge deal for both players. Not that hard of a sell on Rakell given the comparables i.e. Toffoli, JT Miller, etc. However, the same cannot be said for Lindholm, who is probably looking for a deal akin to that of Jones, Reilly, etc.

The Jets also have an internal budget. There is a reason they spent on par with Arizona this year

 

[Huffer]

No chance from this Jets fan. Overpayment.

 

[anezthes]

Ouch, that's a tough one. Can see why WPG wouldn't want to do it, but it's not an no-brainer from Ducks fans either. Well, not this one at least.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

The Jets are over paying here, And i don't see Anaheim trading Lindholm for Trouba Lindholm is slightly better then Trouba and Connor and the 1st wouldn't entice BM enough to part with Lindholm.

 

[irunthepeg]

Take out the 1st and its fair value wise. I don't think I'd do it though. Would like to see what we have in Connor first.

This. It's a trade for the sake of making a trade. Would rather keep what we've invested in.

 

[GoJetsGo55]

Highest I would go is Trouba + 2017 1st for Lindholm.