American Prospect Update Thread
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KrazyKings
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William H Bonney
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Shattuck wins 4-2. The U17's are injury plagued but this Shattuck team is nasty.
William H Bonney
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Incomplete stats but looks like this at least:
- Eiserman: 1g, 1a
- Celebrini: 1g
- Whitelaw: 2g
Saw the Shattucks vs 17 U game and it wasn't that impressive on both sides. Eiserman, Ryan Comishock and Celebrini got a goal , Whitelaw got an empty net. Weiermair an Perreault scored for the 17U. The Shattucks Goalie , Calvin Vachon was the star for Shattucks in that game
I haven't had much time to look at U17s but least the statistics are looking underwhelming. Who has impressed the most?
How likely it is that we could see Rutger, Nazar, Snuggerud, Howard, Cutter and Cooley all drafted in the first round? Also, what is going on with D group. Is Chesley or Hutson still possible first rounders?
How likely it is that we could see Rutger, Nazar, Snuggerud, Howard, Cutter and Cooley all drafted in the first round? Also, what is going on with D group. Is Chesley or Hutson still possible first rounders?
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William H Bonney
Registered User
I haven't seen the U17s much but I've been most impressed by Smith. He looks the part of a high first round pick assuming development goes well. None of the defenseman have stood out to me, but both goalies have looked promising, which is a nice change of pace.
I'd say all of those U18 forwards are strong candidates for the first round while some of them are locks (i.e. Cooley). The D group has struggled this year. Chesley is definitely not going as high as you would have expected after his U17 season unless he turns it around to end the year. With his tools he's probably late 1st / early 2nd even with the struggles. Hutson is a first round talent but not sure he sneaks in there at his size. I'd take Casey in the first round too.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
I'm not sure I agree @William H Bonney about Chesley. I'll go against the tide here, if I have to because what I've seen is contrary to this.
It seems like many people are dropping Chesley. I heard a podcast a month or two ago where someone mentioned this. I think thats being done for stat-watching reasons, which is incredibly stupid. If people think his play has dropped off, fair enough. They are allowed that opinion. However, I disagree.
I'll give an example of why I disagree and why I think people are making lazy assessments in dropping him. He made a defensive play last week where he separated the puck-carrier from the puck with a stick check. His teammate skates into the puck cleanly, and scores. He gets no assist, even though he clearly made the play that led to the goal, and that play is credited as an assist 90%+ of the time. His PP time this year has also been essentially non-existent because they've tried to get some more forwards on the PP, so they've only used two defensemen and Hutson and Casey are two guys whose games revolve around their PP ability, especially Casey. His puck-luck has been equally non-existent.
I'll note that Jacob Trouba last season had his worst statistical season of his career. A lot of people that weren't watching him play thought he had fallen off a cliff from his time in Winnipeg. Actually, while his 2019-20 season wasn't very good, he was pretty good last season. The points simply weren't there. Sometimes that happens for a variety of reasons. This season, they've returned. I don't think Trouba's actually playing any better this season than last season, but people will start to credit you when you play the same but get a little more puck-luck.
Charlie McAvoy's statistical numbers at the NTDP were never too great. Now he's ascending into a top PP role with Boston, and he's getting more and more credit for his offensive play in recent years. I just think with these types of two way defensemen that are tilted more towards defense than offense that the offensive numbers aren't going to always show up on the stat-sheet. It happens for all of them at some point. For Chesley we're talking about three months where his stats aren't there, not even a full season. I think if people want to drop Chesley to the late first round or early second round, thats going to end up being a huge error that a good drafting team capitalizes on. For me, I've not really seen any drop off.
It seems like many people are dropping Chesley. I heard a podcast a month or two ago where someone mentioned this. I think thats being done for stat-watching reasons, which is incredibly stupid. If people think his play has dropped off, fair enough. They are allowed that opinion. However, I disagree.
I'll give an example of why I disagree and why I think people are making lazy assessments in dropping him. He made a defensive play last week where he separated the puck-carrier from the puck with a stick check. His teammate skates into the puck cleanly, and scores. He gets no assist, even though he clearly made the play that led to the goal, and that play is credited as an assist 90%+ of the time. His PP time this year has also been essentially non-existent because they've tried to get some more forwards on the PP, so they've only used two defensemen and Hutson and Casey are two guys whose games revolve around their PP ability, especially Casey. His puck-luck has been equally non-existent.
I'll note that Jacob Trouba last season had his worst statistical season of his career. A lot of people that weren't watching him play thought he had fallen off a cliff from his time in Winnipeg. Actually, while his 2019-20 season wasn't very good, he was pretty good last season. The points simply weren't there. Sometimes that happens for a variety of reasons. This season, they've returned. I don't think Trouba's actually playing any better this season than last season, but people will start to credit you when you play the same but get a little more puck-luck.
Charlie McAvoy's statistical numbers at the NTDP were never too great. Now he's ascending into a top PP role with Boston, and he's getting more and more credit for his offensive play in recent years. I just think with these types of two way defensemen that are tilted more towards defense than offense that the offensive numbers aren't going to always show up on the stat-sheet. It happens for all of them at some point. For Chesley we're talking about three months where his stats aren't there, not even a full season. I think if people want to drop Chesley to the late first round or early second round, thats going to end up being a huge error that a good drafting team capitalizes on. For me, I've not really seen any drop off.
William H Bonney
Registered User
I don't disagree with @Pavel Buchnevich assessment of Chesley. I would still take Chesley very high, but I'm not sure that will be the NHL scouting consensus. He's still been good this year but in my viewings he's been more up-and-down than my viewings in his U17 season. Full transparency though that I haven't been able to see as many games as normal this year. "Struggles" probably wasn't the right term to use; more inconsistent is probably a better term.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
I’m a little worried about our goaltending in the 2002-2004 age groups. Goalies sometimes emerge late, but generally the ones that emerged late were not complete unknowns at U18-U20 age groups.
Right now, I really don’t see more than maybe five guys with any chance from those age groups, and none of them are elite goalie prospects. I hope it’s just a few bad years, but the fact that an above average, albeit far from elite, 17 year old prospect is our backup at the WJC20 shows the problem. I hope it’s a few years where kids decided not to play goalie as opposed to bad coaching and development that will become a trend. We need to be able to rely on goaltending. We are not yet able to match Canada on talent.
Right now, I really don’t see more than maybe five guys with any chance from those age groups, and none of them are elite goalie prospects. I hope it’s just a few bad years, but the fact that an above average, albeit far from elite, 17 year old prospect is our backup at the WJC20 shows the problem. I hope it’s a few years where kids decided not to play goalie as opposed to bad coaching and development that will become a trend. We need to be able to rely on goaltending. We are not yet able to match Canada on talent.
William H Bonney
Registered User
I think the NTDP needs to reevaluate its approach to goalie selection and development. The program gets far too many resources to not be putting out a capable goalie each year. Who's the last goalie the program developed successfully that didn't enter the program as a top end talent?
What is the story with Celebrini? Is he dual or not? Can't find any stats from Canada so maybe dual citizenship is least possibility. NTDP should test the waters with him.
William H Bonney
Registered User
He's Canadian. Family moved to the US when his dad was hired as the director of sports medicine for the Golden State Warriors.
William H Bonney
Registered User
Well, we finally got an answer on the long unknown as to whether Stephen Halliday was actually American or not. He was named to the All American Prospects Game in January, which you have to have citizenship to attend.
Yeah, I did some digging and he was hired by Warriors in 2018, so he has been here only a few years. His brother played in British Columbia during 18-19 before he joined San Jose Sharks juniors for the 19-20 season where Macklin also played before moving to Shattuck.
Sometimes you only have eliteprospects with these and then you are wondering that is it true or not. I usually think they are pretty accurate with citizenships but not always like with Perreault. Halliday is having a pretty strong season but at this point it is not that big deal that he is ''joining'' USA Hockey. I wonder why he was not offered a spot in NTDP or why he turned it down because NCAA route was clearly something he wanted to do.
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Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
It is a second half of the season so new NTDP team selection is getting closer. Do you guys have any other locks outside of Cole Eiserman and Aidan Park? I am not that familiar with 06 age group yet but James Hagens earned some hype early on. Is anyone been able to seen him more recently?
Jaykay
Registered User
Not sure about locks but Logan Hensler, Adam Kleber, Max Plante, and Will Skahan are some big 06 names from MN at this stage.
William H Bonney
Registered User
There will more Shattuck guys in consideration beyond Eiserman and Park. Think Drake Murray, Brodie Ziemer, Kristian Epperson, John Whipple, etc.
Christian Humphreys is another name I've seen quite a bit.
Christian Humphreys is another name I've seen quite a bit.
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Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
I'm not saying the 18's won't yield some good NHL'ers because I think they will, but I'm a little unconvinced by this group thats so hyped.
I have reservations about every player on the team, including big reservations about a number of the guys we expect to go in the first round. Thats not to say I don't think these guys should be ranked where they are ranked.
I doubt they all bust, but I really am a little worried that a few of them are going to bust. Saying that, they are tremendously skilled. I think they are more skilled and skate better than the 2001's. They play better hockey, but the NHL game is not junior hockey. We'll see what happens, but I think questions remain about all of them.
I have reservations about every player on the team, including big reservations about a number of the guys we expect to go in the first round. Thats not to say I don't think these guys should be ranked where they are ranked.
I doubt they all bust, but I really am a little worried that a few of them are going to bust. Saying that, they are tremendously skilled. I think they are more skilled and skate better than the 2001's. They play better hockey, but the NHL game is not junior hockey. We'll see what happens, but I think questions remain about all of them.
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Watched some of the 17's, and this is what I think. Think I've seen enough of every player, except Augustine, to opine. If I need to mention him at some point, I'll come back to this.
I think it's a bad crop without doubt. I don't see a top 10 pick caliber of player in this crop. I don't even know who has the skillset for that type of rise. I've been following since the 2000's. Now followed the 2000's, 2001's, 2002's, 2003's, 2004's, and 2005's. This is the worst year.
Not that many first round types either. The goalies aren't bad. Don't see anyone like a Knight, but the goaltending isn't a weakness. The defense is weak. Really hard to sugar-coat it. There's almost no offense from the defensemen, and a few of them can't defend. Forwards are pretty deep. Don't initially see a player I'd worry won't be drafted. Like always though, the 11th and 12th guys will be on the bubble. Forwards do lack those top end types though that we normally have.
This is roughly how I'd assess them. Will only name the guys worth naming.
G:
Chambre-He's an odd player. Really great hockey sense and positioning. Pretty good quickness. About average height. He's really inconsistent and lets in a lot of bad goals through bad concentration. If he becomes more consistent, a Hart or Dostal type of goalie is possible.
D:
Minnetian-He's the best defenseman on the team. Right-shot that can really skate. Really good defensive hockey sense. Good all-around defensive player. Pretty well built, but only about 5'11. His puck moving and offense is probably going to be about NHL average. Don't think he's a PP guy at the NHL level, but he's probably the best point producer for this team right now. He's Brock Faber, worst case scenario. Maybe a little better.
Fischer-Size is pretty good and can skate well. LHD. Good defensive sense. Puck moving is very inconsistent. No real offense. Good chance he plays in the NHL, especially if his puck-moving improves, but not a high pick type.
Tobey-He's a blend between Minnetian and Fischer, but not as good as either. Right-shot with pretty similar size to Minnetian, but a pretty similar approach to the game to Fischer. Don't see much offense. May have a chance to be a boring 3rd pair guy in the NHL. I think he's picked. Not an exciting player.
Buium-He has potential. I think he's probably the most exciting player on the defense. He holds the puck under pressure well, good edges, can move the puck. Good playmaker. Doesn't put up many points yet, which doesn't mean he doesn't have offensive potential. Pretty weak defensively. Penalties, bad positioning, and coughs up the puck in his own end too often. Below-average size. Youngest player on the team. 2024 eligible. If he can clean up the defense and get it to average for his size, potential is there to be a late first type.
Cleveland is like Adam Samuelsson. Someone's going to draft him because he's big and his hands aren't bad, but there's not much hockey ability there. I guess he has potential. He needs to get a lot better though. Janviriya is not bad at the junior level. He's just too small and not good enough with skating/offense to play in the NHL. He's a two-way guy without any weakness at the junior level. For the NHL, being 5'6 is a huge impediment. We had a player at the NTDP like this recently. I forget his name. Janviriya is like him.
F:
Sawchyn-I think he's probably the best NHL prospect on the team, although I could make an argument for the next player. Plays center, great skater, great puck skills, can pass, can shoot. For some reason and I can't figure out why yet, he doesn't score as many points as his talent indicates he should. He also holds onto the puck for way too long and loses it a lot. I don't think he's selfish or has bad sense, but its a possibility. He's also only about 5'10 and very thin. Compete isn't bad. May not be a center. I'd say he's like a mid-first on first thought. Could see him as a late first instead.
Smith-Reminds me a little of Josh Norris. Well-rounded two way center. Pretty good skater, pretty good puck skills, can shoot, dangle, pass. Not convinced he has real high-end sense or playmaking to be a 1C, but he can contribute in those areas, and probably projects as being a top 6 forward, either a 2C or complimentary first line winger. I'd say his range is a little smaller than Sawchyn. Probably merely a late first rounder.
Leonard-Another guy who I think could have sense questions. Great skater. Probably the best skater on the team. Has good 1v1 puck skills. Good compete level. Tries to dangle, toe-drag, and then get off shots. Not a bad passer, but he's a shooter. I don't think his sense is that bad, but I certainly have questions about it. Looks like a winger to me. Probably a late first/early second range guy.
Moore-Gritty two way dependable forward. Can play center. Can play wing. Can play in all situations. Can do just about everything needed for a team, but he's not going to be dangling guys and shooting top shelf or making incredible cross crease passes. I think he's a really safe type of player. 2nd or third line winger. Maybe can play center in the NHL. Capable in all situations. Would suggest he's an early second round range type.
Hendrickson-The player I like more than most probably. I think this guy has some pretty good potential. He's like 6'1 and skates pretty well. Has puck skills, can score some points, has good hockey sense, and good defensively. He's not going to be a 1C. Doesn't have that offense. But I could see a 2C or at least 3C. Maybe plays wing. Could be a capable second line winger. Firmly a mid-second rounder I'd say.
I think it drops off from there. Not sure there's another top two rounds player. Perreault could maybe be late second round. Great scoring instincts. Can pass, shoot, really good sense. But he's 5'9 and an average skater. Not a big contributor in other areas of the game. Probably a third rounder. Vote is a player I think is probably pretty underrated. Really great sense. Like his scoring potential as much as Perreault. But he's 5'7 and an average skater. I'd pick him third round. Fine is another small player. 5'7, pretty good skater. Not convinced about his offense. He plays center now, but no way he stays there. Worth picking, but not a player I'd expect has a real role in the NHL. The other forwards are worth picks, but not players I'd expect play too many NHL games
I think it's a bad crop without doubt. I don't see a top 10 pick caliber of player in this crop. I don't even know who has the skillset for that type of rise. I've been following since the 2000's. Now followed the 2000's, 2001's, 2002's, 2003's, 2004's, and 2005's. This is the worst year.
Not that many first round types either. The goalies aren't bad. Don't see anyone like a Knight, but the goaltending isn't a weakness. The defense is weak. Really hard to sugar-coat it. There's almost no offense from the defensemen, and a few of them can't defend. Forwards are pretty deep. Don't initially see a player I'd worry won't be drafted. Like always though, the 11th and 12th guys will be on the bubble. Forwards do lack those top end types though that we normally have.
This is roughly how I'd assess them. Will only name the guys worth naming.
G:
Chambre-He's an odd player. Really great hockey sense and positioning. Pretty good quickness. About average height. He's really inconsistent and lets in a lot of bad goals through bad concentration. If he becomes more consistent, a Hart or Dostal type of goalie is possible.
D:
Minnetian-He's the best defenseman on the team. Right-shot that can really skate. Really good defensive hockey sense. Good all-around defensive player. Pretty well built, but only about 5'11. His puck moving and offense is probably going to be about NHL average. Don't think he's a PP guy at the NHL level, but he's probably the best point producer for this team right now. He's Brock Faber, worst case scenario. Maybe a little better.
Fischer-Size is pretty good and can skate well. LHD. Good defensive sense. Puck moving is very inconsistent. No real offense. Good chance he plays in the NHL, especially if his puck-moving improves, but not a high pick type.
Tobey-He's a blend between Minnetian and Fischer, but not as good as either. Right-shot with pretty similar size to Minnetian, but a pretty similar approach to the game to Fischer. Don't see much offense. May have a chance to be a boring 3rd pair guy in the NHL. I think he's picked. Not an exciting player.
Buium-He has potential. I think he's probably the most exciting player on the defense. He holds the puck under pressure well, good edges, can move the puck. Good playmaker. Doesn't put up many points yet, which doesn't mean he doesn't have offensive potential. Pretty weak defensively. Penalties, bad positioning, and coughs up the puck in his own end too often. Below-average size. Youngest player on the team. 2024 eligible. If he can clean up the defense and get it to average for his size, potential is there to be a late first type.
Cleveland is like Adam Samuelsson. Someone's going to draft him because he's big and his hands aren't bad, but there's not much hockey ability there. I guess he has potential. He needs to get a lot better though. Janviriya is not bad at the junior level. He's just too small and not good enough with skating/offense to play in the NHL. He's a two-way guy without any weakness at the junior level. For the NHL, being 5'6 is a huge impediment. We had a player at the NTDP like this recently. I forget his name. Janviriya is like him.
F:
Sawchyn-I think he's probably the best NHL prospect on the team, although I could make an argument for the next player. Plays center, great skater, great puck skills, can pass, can shoot. For some reason and I can't figure out why yet, he doesn't score as many points as his talent indicates he should. He also holds onto the puck for way too long and loses it a lot. I don't think he's selfish or has bad sense, but its a possibility. He's also only about 5'10 and very thin. Compete isn't bad. May not be a center. I'd say he's like a mid-first on first thought. Could see him as a late first instead.
Smith-Reminds me a little of Josh Norris. Well-rounded two way center. Pretty good skater, pretty good puck skills, can shoot, dangle, pass. Not convinced he has real high-end sense or playmaking to be a 1C, but he can contribute in those areas, and probably projects as being a top 6 forward, either a 2C or complimentary first line winger. I'd say his range is a little smaller than Sawchyn. Probably merely a late first rounder.
Leonard-Another guy who I think could have sense questions. Great skater. Probably the best skater on the team. Has good 1v1 puck skills. Good compete level. Tries to dangle, toe-drag, and then get off shots. Not a bad passer, but he's a shooter. I don't think his sense is that bad, but I certainly have questions about it. Looks like a winger to me. Probably a late first/early second range guy.
Moore-Gritty two way dependable forward. Can play center. Can play wing. Can play in all situations. Can do just about everything needed for a team, but he's not going to be dangling guys and shooting top shelf or making incredible cross crease passes. I think he's a really safe type of player. 2nd or third line winger. Maybe can play center in the NHL. Capable in all situations. Would suggest he's an early second round range type.
Hendrickson-The player I like more than most probably. I think this guy has some pretty good potential. He's like 6'1 and skates pretty well. Has puck skills, can score some points, has good hockey sense, and good defensively. He's not going to be a 1C. Doesn't have that offense. But I could see a 2C or at least 3C. Maybe plays wing. Could be a capable second line winger. Firmly a mid-second rounder I'd say.
I think it drops off from there. Not sure there's another top two rounds player. Perreault could maybe be late second round. Great scoring instincts. Can pass, shoot, really good sense. But he's 5'9 and an average skater. Not a big contributor in other areas of the game. Probably a third rounder. Vote is a player I think is probably pretty underrated. Really great sense. Like his scoring potential as much as Perreault. But he's 5'7 and an average skater. I'd pick him third round. Fine is another small player. 5'7, pretty good skater. Not convinced about his offense. He plays center now, but no way he stays there. Worth picking, but not a player I'd expect has a real role in the NHL. The other forwards are worth picks, but not players I'd expect play too many NHL games
Pavel Buchnevich
"Pavel Buchnevich The Fake"
Augustine is the best of the goalies. If he grows an inch or two, he could be a late first rounder next year. Great quickness, has probably average size for a U17 goalie, very composed in his movement and technique. He’s very good. I think he’ll be a top 2-3 goalie for the 2023 draft. Could be the best.
William H Bonney
Registered User
I don't think so as I don't think many on here watch it. I think this thread is often used for those that do.
