Amateur Scouting

[freshwind]

Hard to judge amateur scouting when the GM empties the draft pick cupboard including high picks mortgaging the future for the present.

2021 Draft .. Only 3 picks (no 1st trade for Nick Foligno)
2222 Draft .. Only 3 picks survived for this year.

Despite losing in round #1 each year the Leafs will be making for the second consecutive season the fewest draft picks of all NHL teams.

This is the kind of actions you would expect from a Cup contending team looking for that last advantage to put them over the top.

The margin and % to hit on drafted player is already low, but if you trade away and never make it the results are already in on that sacrified pick at zero%.

a little misleading ...

2020 - 12 picks
2019 - 6 picks

so for 4 years that is 24 picks over 4 years

6 per year ..

5 next year but i suspect we may pick up a couple more before that draft, or maybe this year as well ...

 

[Funk21]

Sea of Blue just posted that players of the same size doesn't mean that they are the same player. That's a ridiculous take.

But it did in the Hunter era, he drafted for size and grit - yet not one of them was even worth an ELC (regardless if they got one or not). That's the very definition of bad drafting letting size dictate over all else.

This, we had Marchment and traded him for a Smurf because he was “skilled and had hockey IQ” and what we needed is size and grit.

Dubas need to take a few flyers on some of those jam guys too.

I do think we have some decent prospects in Knies, Neimela and Villeneuve (IMO). Amirov is such a wild card at this point and that Troy sucks because I had such high hopes for that kid. I hope he gets healthy but the sports fan in me is like what could we have had instead of him.

Anyway they really need to hit on the few bullets they have this year and hope the kids develop. Liljegren was a revelation last year and if he and Sandin can make the jump we likely will be able to trade Muzzin to free up some cap space.

 

[hockeynorth]

Also Liljegren > Oettinger might be a miss in the future.

I think that’s very possible but Oettinger went where he was pegged to, Liljegren way later than expected. I won’t ever have qualms about that pick, it was a total no brainer.

 

[Mess]

a little misleading ...

2020 - 12 picks
2019 - 6 picks

so for 4 years that is 24 picks over 4 years

6 per year ..

5 next year but i suspect we may pick up a couple more before that draft, or maybe this year as well ...

All picks are not equal ..

If you trade away your best picks like for Marleau and Foligno etc then adding a bunch of 6th and 7th rounders which have very little chance of success they are not equal and so its not just Quantity but Quality. The chance a 6th and 7h rounder hits is about 5% league wide not per team that player ever sees a game in the NHL.

You can't average out 2020 6th and 7th rounders to pretend you made more picks in 2021 and 2022 drafts and not actual 3 but average 6 across all drafts.

Leafs made only 3 picks in 2021 and currently only have 3 picks remaining in 2022 that is not misleading that is the facts.

I'm not holding my breath that Joe Miller .. Drafted in 6th round in 2020 replaces the 1st rounder we traded for Nick Foligno rental from 2021.

Joe Miller - Center -- Shoots R
Born Sep 15 2002 -- Minneapolis, MN
Height 5.08 -- Weight 147

2020 Entry draft.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Dmitry Ovchinnikov[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]Novosibirsk Jrs. (Russia)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Veeti Miettinen[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]Espoo Jrs. (Finland)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Axel Rindell[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Jukurit Mikkeli [SM-liiga][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Joe Miller[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Blake School (Minn. H.S.)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]189[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]John Fusco[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Dexter Southfield (Mass. H.S.)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]195[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Wyatt Schingoethe[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]213[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Tverberg[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Jr. Canadiens [OJHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[rocketman588]

a little misleading ...

2020 - 12 picks
2019 - 6 picks

so for 4 years that is 24 picks over 4 years

6 per year ..

5 next year but i suspect we may pick up a couple more before that draft, or maybe this year as well ...

We'll get some low picks for Holl maybe.

We're going to have to dump some for Mrazek you can't even get rid of that contract on Chel without adding picks

 

[hockeynorth]

We'll get some low picks for Holl maybe.

We're going to have to dump some for Mrazek you can't even get rid of that contract on Chel without adding picks

Probably going to get a 2nd or 2 3rds for Holl, something similar to Jacob Middleton. For Kerfoot, I'd expect a decent enough amount i.e. 2nd + B prospect, or 2 + 3. After Kerfoots season, expect a nice haul when we sell high.

 

[nuck]

Just looking at the Leafs roster and they haven't seemed to hit on any of their picks in rounds 2-7. I know after each round the likelihood that player makes it to the NHL goes down, but other teams at least have some success.

Dermot and Durzi are playing for other teams, but seem like they will only be bottom pairing defensemen.

Is it just players not being given a chance?

Do we tend to focus to focus too much on building this team through free agency and trades?

It takes about 5-6 years for a draft to fully show what you are getting so which drafts are you worried about?

For the Leafs, if we look at 2018 it appears like Durzi may have a career, Still waiting for Kral and Holmberg to sink or swim and a slight chance SDA will play some games in the NHL. 2017 draft seems like the most recent one that's sorted out although even then its unclear how good their 1st rounder from that year is. At this point we don't know anything about the 2019+ draftees except a bunch of them have really developed well. For other clubs that year nobody taken out of the top 40 has played more than 36 games so rounds 2-7 are unproven for all and the Leafs seem right on schedule.

Most years there aren't 15 players taken out of the top 2 rounds that are truly impactful so thats a 10% win rate (unless you are Tampa). In the last 10 drafts only 15, 16, 17 look "weak" to me for the Leafs. The other wrinkle is a lot of the same scouts that were there in the worst years were also there in some good years. The regional scouts are the ones who flesh out the list and if they don't get it right you don't get wins at the draft. If the club doesn't get results from a certain territory it can be a failure by the regional guys, or it can mean they weren't getting listened to. With the Leafs I think some of their regional guys have let them down in the past but there has been some turnover too.

As far as being given a chance, are you referring to Verhaeghe and Marchment? They look like mistakes now but they were 25 and 26 by the time they made the NHL full time which an unusually slow path to show up as a productive NHLer. Not unheard of but pretty rare. I don't think that's a trend as much as failing to recognize a couple of late bloomers by two different GMs.

They use FAs as much as they can afford to which is how most clubs that spend to the cap operate. If you take out the Tavares signing there isn't a huge bias to UFAs and really we shouldn't be using any of what KD did his rookie season to define how the club is being run today.

One thing is to keep in mind is when a team has a wide open window, FAs and trades make the most sense. Like Tampa spending picks and prospects. You have to spend futures during the peak years or you will lose to the teams that do. It would have been irresponsible for KD not to look at UFAS the last couple of years.

 

[rocketman588]

Probably going to get a 2nd or 2 3rds for Holl, something similar to Jacob Middleton. For Kerfoot, I'd expect a decent enough amount i.e. 2nd + B prospect, or 2 + 3. After Kerfoots season, expect a nice haul when we sell high.

We won't get that for either

Everyone knows that Holl is a 6/7 and kerfoots cap hit is much too high for what he provides

As a bonus that both have modified no trades so that helps drive the value down as well

The league knows we're desperate to dump salary also so they're not going to do us favors

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

What happened to Andrew Nielsen? First 2 years in the AHL for the Marlies he had 39 points in 74 games, then 26 points in 65 games. Got traded to Calgary and completely nose dived. From this video he doesn't look like a bad skater, and seems to have good puck skills. Hasn't played a lot since getting to Calgary. 45 games is his highest since the 65 in his second pro season. Has he had injury problems?

 

[Menzinger]

All picks are not equal ..

If you trade away your best picks like for Marleau and Foligno etc then adding a bunch of 6th and 7th rounders which have very little chance of success they are not equal and so its not just Quantity but Quality. The chance a 6th and 7h rounder hits is about 5% league wide not per team that player ever sees a game in the NHL.

You can't average out 2020 6th and 7th rounders to pretend you made more picks in 2021 and 2022 drafts and not actual 3 but average 6 across all drafts.

Leafs made only 3 picks in 2021 and currently only have 3 picks remaining in 2022 that is not misleading that is the facts.

I'm not holding my breath that Joe Miller .. Drafted in 6th round in 2020 replaces the 1st rounder we traded for Nick Foligno rental from 2021.

Joe Miller - Center -- Shoots R
Born Sep 15 2002 -- Minneapolis, MN
Height 5.08 -- Weight 147

2020 Entry draft.

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]137[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[TD]Dmitry Ovchinnikov[/TD]
[TD]L[/TD]
[TD]Novosibirsk Jrs. (Russia)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]168[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Veeti Miettinen[/TD]
[TD]R[/TD]
[TD]Espoo Jrs. (Finland)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]177[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Axel Rindell[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Jukurit Mikkeli [SM-liiga][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]180[/TD]
[TD]6[/TD]
[TD]Joe Miller[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Blake School (Minn. H.S.)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]189[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]John Fusco[/TD]
[TD]D[/TD]
[TD]Dexter Southfield (Mass. H.S.)[/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]195[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Wyatt Schingoethe[/TD]
[TD]F[/TD]
[TD]Waterloo Black Hawks [USHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020 Entry[/TD]
[TD]213[/TD]
[TD]7[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Tverberg[/TD]
[TD]C[/TD]
[TD]Toronto Jr. Canadiens [OJHL][/TD]
[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]

[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Funnily enough Joe Miller quitely just had a solid season in the ushl. Believe he is committed to Harvard next season too.

 

[hamzarocks]

Why are people listing abramov/abruzze/kokonnen/etc as hits? Those guys are fringe nhler's.

They're the tynoshov's from Dubas drafts

The only really promising players in the system who can be impact pieces to support the core are Knies, Robertson( though he's taking longer to make it now than expected after his D+1) and Niemela

Amirov can't say as his first two post draft years were alright but then he unfortunately got sick.

Problem is that the 3 promising names mentioned won't reach their ceilings until another few years when the big 4 might not be here making a new retool needed

We need Robertson or niemela to come in and be Rookie Nylandee or Rookie Rielly level next season

 

[SeaOfBlue]

We won't get that for either

Everyone knows that Holl is a 6/7 and kerfoots cap hit is much too high for what he provides

As a bonus that both have modified no trades so that helps drive the value down as well

The league knows we're desperate to dump salary also so they're not going to do us favors

No, his values are pretty much bang on.

You are just criminally underrating them as players.

 

[TheBigFour]

Wait, the leafs are rebuilding? Even though they get 115 points, we are supposed to say they suck and stock up on draft picks?

mess posts have no logic. He's just troll at this point.

 

[hockeynorth]

We won't get that for either

Everyone knows that Holl is a 6/7 and kerfoots cap hit is much too high for what he provides

As a bonus that both have modified no trades so that helps drive the value down as well

The league knows we're desperate to dump salary also so they're not going to do us favors

I really disagree, this is the same philosophy used with Dermott (who got a 3rd) and Kapanen. Kerfoot is paid VERY fairly for his production and versatility, I mean, he's better than Mikheyev and Mikheyev is projected to get 4M+. Holl is a solid #5 D who is big and on a sweetheart deal (who some teams), both of those hold a lot of value.

GMs may think we're desperate to dump salary but they'll still have to make offers against each other.

Also... Leafs really aren't in a cap crunch next year at all. They can pretty much run this roster back if they wanted to less Mikheyev, who would be replaced by any of the ELCs we have waiting.

 

[TheBigFour]

I think next season will provide us a better understanding if Dubas drafting or scouting is actually good or is it just more of a talk.

it will be four years since his first draft and some of his draft picks, prospect signings and acquistions have had enough time to develop through the system.

I'll looking closely at these specific players: Sandin, abruzesse, holmberg, Robertson, Steeves and Anderson

Dubas has praised these players specifically over time so its time for players to show it.

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

Why are people listing abramov/abruzze/kokonnen/etc as hits? Those guys are fringe nhler's.

They're the tynoshov's from Dubas drafts

The only really promising players in the system who can be impact pieces to support the core are Knies, Robertson( though he's taking longer to make it now than expected after his D+1) and Niemela

Amirov can't say as his first two post draft years were alright but then he unfortunately got sick.

Problem is that the 3 promising names mentioned won't reach their ceilings until another few years when the big 4 might not be here making a new retool needed

We need Robertson or niemela to come in and be Rookie Nylandee or Rookie Rielly level next season

Kokkonen will surprise you

 

[Dreakmur]

Probably going to get a 2nd or 2 3rds for Holl, something similar to Jacob Middleton. For Kerfoot, I'd expect a decent enough amount i.e. 2nd + B prospect, or 2 + 3. After Kerfoots season, expect a nice haul when we sell high.

Also adding to Kerfoot’s value is his league minimum salary after we pay his sign long bonus. Assuming budget teams aren’t on his not trade list, they’ll be all over him.

 

[Morbo]

Just looking at the Leafs roster and they haven't seemed to hit on any of their picks in rounds 2-7. I know after each round the likelihood that player makes it to the NHL goes down, but other teams at least have some success.

Dermot and Durzi are playing for other teams, but seem like they will only be bottom pairing defensemen.

Is it just players not being given a chance?

Do we tend to focus to focus too much on building this team through free agency and trades?

the answer is "yes".

the Leafs draft history is an embarassing wasteland.

 

[Steven1562]

I think that’s very possible but Oettinger went where he was pegged to, Liljegren way later than expected. I won’t ever have qualms about that pick, it was a total no brainer.

Yeah for sure at the time it was a no brainer. We needed a right shot defenseman and the guy who was the preseason consensus #2 fell all the way to #17. Still it would have been nice to shore up a young stud goalie for the future.

 

[pucksakes666]

Hunter was really promising at the beginning but ended up being worse than the previous decade of poor drafting we had before he came. Tried way too hard to make low IQ fridge picks work out and it wasted far too many quality picks. Not surprised this guy doesn't have an NHL job anymore.

Otherwise, it is still a bit early to tell. 2018 and 2019 is only now starting to break through, and we may see a fair number of guys from those drafts (Holmberg, Abruzzese, Robertson, etc.). I am hoping Dubas' drafts turn out a lot better, and they certainly look at a lot better in terms of development than Hunter's drafts, but we will see in the next couple of years if they amount to impact NHLers.

Focusing on IQ and skill is definitely the way to go, and it is definitely looking like it is paying off for the top 100 picks thus far, but they still have some blind spots that they need to work out; namely Russia and drafting low upside offensive defensemen like Hollowell, Fusco, Loponen, and Rindell. Drafting guys like Koster, Sandin, and Niemela are fine because they are at least strong in their own end even if they are not huge, but those other guys simply do not have roles in the NHL unless they can completely translate their offensive abilities.

It is definitely not focusing on building this team through UFA and trades though. We just sucked at drafting for some time and had to find other (creative) avenues to backfill our poor drafting. Bargain bin/Euro/NCAA/CHL UFA's have been good to us so it is not nearly as much of a disaster as it could have been.

What was the pick that hunter dealt to Philly for 2 picks when they could have one decent player.

 

[Steven1562]

What was the pick that hunter dealt to Philly for 2 picks when they could have one decent player.

Was it Travis Konecny in 2015?

 

[pucksakes666]

Was it Travis Konecny in 2015?

Yes had to look it up couldn’t remember the year , but yes Hunter thought it was good to pass on Konecny so they could draft Bracco and Dermott.

 

[fahad203]

Yes had to look it up couldn’t remember the year , but yes Hunter thought it was good to pass on Konecny so they could draft Bracco and Dermott.

Luckily for us Strome scored 6 points in the last game of the season to take over the lead from Marner
and Arizona selecting Strome

Otherwise that could have been a disaster of a draft

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Yes had to look it up couldn’t remember the year , but yes Hunter thought it was good to pass on Konecny so they could draft Bracco and Dermott.

I think it is a bigger travesty that he passed up Aho instead.

The trade down was actually good value, and a good idea in a deep draft like that, but you still need to take the right guys.

 

[ToneDog]

Luckily for us Strome scored 6 points in the last game of the season to take over the lead from Marner
and Arizona selecting Strome

Otherwise that could have been a disaster of a draft

Maybe maybe not. Hunter probably trades down and selects Rantanen with CBJ pick, Koneckny at 24, Aho at 29 with CBJ pick and Blackwell at 34. If only Dermott did not get in his way.