Amateur Scouting

[Jeffrey Pedler]

Just looking at the Leafs roster and they haven't seemed to hit on any of their picks in rounds 2-7. I know after each round the likelihood that player makes it to the NHL goes down, but other teams at least have some success.

Dermot and Durzi are playing for other teams, but seem like they will only be bottom pairing defensemen.

Is it just players not being given a chance?

Do we tend to focus to focus too much on building this team through free agency and trades?

Click to read more...

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Just looking at the Leafs roster and they haven't seemed to hit on any of their picks in rounds 2-7. I know after each round the likelihood that player makes it to the NHL goes down, but other teams at least have some success.

Dermot and Durzi are playing for other teams, but seem like they will only be bottom pairing defensemen.

Is it just players not being given a chance?

Do we tend to focus to focus too much on building this team through free agency and trades?

Hunter was really promising at the beginning but ended up being worse than the previous decade of poor drafting we had before he came. Tried way too hard to make low IQ fridge picks work out and it wasted far too many quality picks. Not surprised this guy doesn't have an NHL job anymore.

Otherwise, it is still a bit early to tell. 2018 and 2019 is only now starting to break through, and we may see a fair number of guys from those drafts (Holmberg, Abruzzese, Robertson, etc.). I am hoping Dubas' drafts turn out a lot better, and they certainly look at a lot better in terms of development than Hunter's drafts, but we will see in the next couple of years if they amount to impact NHLers.

Focusing on IQ and skill is definitely the way to go, and it is definitely looking like it is paying off for the top 100 picks thus far, but they still have some blind spots that they need to work out; namely Russia and drafting low upside offensive defensemen like Hollowell, Fusco, Loponen, and Rindell. Drafting guys like Koster, Sandin, and Niemela are fine because they are at least strong in their own end even if they are not huge, but those other guys simply do not have roles in the NHL unless they can completely translate their offensive abilities.

It is definitely not focusing on building this team through UFA and trades though. We just sucked at drafting for some time and had to find other (creative) avenues to backfill our poor drafting. Bargain bin/Euro/NCAA/CHL UFA's have been good to us so it is not nearly as much of a disaster as it could have been.

 

[Dreakmur]

Hunter was really promising at the beginning but ended up being worse than the previous decade of poor drafting we had before he came. Tried way too hard to make low IQ fridge picks work out and it wasted far too many quality picks. Not surprised this guy doesn't have an NHL job anymore.

Otherwise, it is still a bit early to tell. 2018 and 2019 is only now starting to break through, and we may see a fair number of guys from those drafts (Holmberg, Abruzzese, Robertson, etc.). I am hoping Dubas' drafts turn out a lot better, and they certainly look at a lot better in terms of development than Hunter's drafts, but we will see in the next couple of years if they amount to impact NHLers.

Focusing on IQ and skill is definitely the way to go, and it is definitely looking like it is paying off for the top 100 picks thus far, but they still have some blind spots that they need to work out; namely Russia and drafting low upside offensive defensemen like Hollowell, Fusco, Loponen, and Rindell. Drafting guys like Koster, Sandin, and Niemela are fine because they are at least strong in their own end even if they are not huge, but those other guys simply do not have roles in the NHL unless they can completely translate their offensive abilities.

It is definitely not focusing on building this team through UFA and trades though. We just sucked at drafting for some time and had to find other (creative) avenues to backfill our poor drafting. Bargain bin/Euro/NCAA/CHL UFA's have been good to us so it is not nearly as much of a disaster as it could have been.

Drafting a mix of different types of players is the way to go. Recent drafts have absolutely been better than years prior, but our recent dilemma in the bottom 6 demonstrates the flaw with drafting just based on skill (or anything else for that matter). We need some beef in the bottom 6 and no prospects who can really fill that need.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

Aside from the 1st round hits we could ice a full lineup of later round picks and undrafted finds. We just haven’t kept them.
Engvall
Johnsson
Verhaege
Connor Brown
Trevor moore
Marchment
Carrick
Grundstrom
Toninato
Even fringe guys like Joshua, McKegg, Timashov we’re playing parts of the season.

Homegrown forward crew
Verhaege- AM - MM
Marchment - Kadri - Nylander
Brown - Moore - Johnsson
Engvall - Carrick - Grundstrom

Plus guys like Hyman etc that we basically cultivated.

So I would say our scouts are decent except maybe the Hunter drafts.

 

[banks]

Just looking at the Leafs roster and they haven't seemed to hit on any of their picks in rounds 2-7. I know after each round the likelihood that player makes it to the NHL goes down, but other teams at least have some success.

[...]

What are you talking about? In the last 3 years they got Knies, Niemela, Robertson, and Abruzzese all outside of the first round.

 

[robertmac43]

Scouts are decent, development is solid, and I think we do many right things. Drafting 18 year olds is a volatile thing, tough to fully know what you have in a player, but I think overall the Leafs handle things well.

 

[BlueBaron]

Drafting a mix of different types of players is the way to go. Recent drafts have absolutely been better than years prior, but our recent dilemma in the bottom 6 demonstrates the flaw with drafting just based on skill (or anything else for that matter). We need some beef in the bottom 6 and no prospects who can really fill that need.

I guess the dream is Knies.

Can anyone give me some insight into our goalie scouts? I'm getting increasingly frustrated by how we don't seem to take this position seriously and never use a good pick on one, it always seems late round lottery tickets.

My understanding is we have two guys in Woll and Kallgren who have back up upside. Goalie of the future is a term I have not heard in a long, long time when talking about our prospects. That was back when Rask and Pogge were in the pool. We know how that went....

 

[ULF_55]

What are you talking about? In the last 3 years they got Knies, Niemela, Robertson, and Abruzzese all outside of the first round.

You are correct.

It is too soon to know.

They might have some future NHL players in the system.

I think they really, really need to hit on a couple you have listed, but while the eggs may have hatched they haven't left the nest.

 

[justashadowof]

We've been through this before. We've got some decent looking prospects to be optimistic about developing into something with the right level of minor league seasoning. None of them are anything until they perform at the NHL level. And the GM has got to resist the temptation to rush them to the NHL. Both Robertson and Ambruzzesse looked out of place in their early auditions.

Sandin is almost a 2nd round pick and he's somewhat of a hit although injuries have slowed his progress. Durzi definitely isn't going to be bottom pairing. He had the 3rd most ice time amongst L.A. defensemen in the 2022 playoffs.

 

[A1LeafNation]

Wish we could find a franchise goalie like we did with Rask.

 

[mattihp]

Wish we could find a franchise goalie like we did with Rask.

Finland will be a more attractive place to scout now with the KHL factor diminishing..

 

[Thornbury]

What are you talking about? In the last 3 years they got Knies, Niemela, Robertson, and Abruzzese all outside of the first round.

Not to mention Hirvonen, Kral, possibly Voit, Ambramov and Villeneuve.

 

[Menzinger]

The biggest problem for the Leafs rebuild/build has definitely been an inability to find impact players outside of the first round. Be it by luck or smart scouting teams like Tampa end up with guys like Point from the 3rd round. That hasn't happened with the Leafs

They've managed to find depth guys, and some useful pieces like Dermott, Brown, Engvall, but no real impact players.

Fingers crossed the last 3-4 draft cycles start to show some results. There's definitely more than a few interesting guys in the system, we just need them to take the next step.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Hunter was really promising at the beginning but ended up being worse than the previous decade of poor drafting we had before he came. Tried way too hard to make low IQ fridge picks work out and it wasted far too many quality picks. Not surprised this guy doesn't have an NHL job anymore.

Otherwise, it is still a bit early to tell. 2018 and 2019 is only now starting to break through, and we may see a fair number of guys from those drafts (Holmberg, Abruzzese, Robertson, etc.). I am hoping Dubas' drafts turn out a lot better, and they certainly look at a lot better in terms of development than Hunter's drafts, but we will see in the next couple of years if they amount to impact NHLers.

Focusing on IQ and skill is definitely the way to go, and it is definitely looking like it is paying off for the top 100 picks thus far, but they still have some blind spots that they need to work out; namely Russia and drafting low upside offensive defensemen like Hollowell, Fusco, Loponen, and Rindell. Drafting guys like Koster, Sandin, and Niemela are fine because they are at least strong in their own end even if they are not huge, but those other guys simply do not have roles in the NHL unless they can completely translate their offensive abilities.

It is definitely not focusing on building this team through UFA and trades though. We just sucked at drafting for some time and had to find other (creative) avenues to backfill our poor drafting. Bargain bin/Euro/NCAA/CHL UFA's have been good to us so it is not nearly as much of a disaster as it could have been.

This has been my problem with the infatuation with smaller skilled players. They have a place on the team...any team. But you can't have a whole team of them either. Everyone is talking about Steeves, Anderson and Abruzzese for the 4th line thinking we are going to win the matchup because of hustle and skill. I don't think that is the type of player we need down there...we need some bangers and heavy hitters. We get these smallish guys like Abruzzese who in the 10 games he played with us could not find literally 1 thing I could say was encouraging....no shot, not physical etc.

They draft for skill but the problem is if the skill is not enough the pick is wasted. Knies is a bigger guy who is pretty fast and hits...even if he has Hyman hands (first few years in the NHL) he can still make an impact while he learns. Can you say that about Steeves and the like? I don't know...but it doesn't look good.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

This has been my problem with the infatuation with smaller skilled players. They have a place on the team...any team. But you can't have a whole team of them either. Everyone is talking about Steeves, Anderson and Abruzzese for the 4th line thinking we are going to win the matchup because of hustle and skill. I don't think that is the type of player we need down there...we need some bangers and heavy hitters. We get these smallish guys like Abruzzese who in the 10 games he played with us could not find literally 1 thing I could say was encouraging....no shot, not physical etc.

They draft for skill but the problem is if the skill is not enough the pick is wasted. Knies is a bigger guy who is pretty fast and hits...even if he has Hyman hands (first few years in the NHL) he can still make an impact while he learns. Can you say that about Steeves and the like? I don't know...but it doesn't look good.

Abruzzese is probably the least physical out of the bunch, and that is not reflective on all or even most of the players we have drafted.

We may not be drafting guys like Simmonds. There have also not been a lot of guys like Simmonds to draft which also have what it takes to make it, or are not any better than guys like Douglas, McMann, or Marchment which we have been able to find without draft picks.

The guys we are usually getting are similar to what you can see out of Trevor Moore in LA or Michael Bunting though. Maybe not the biggest (although most are going to be 5'11 - 6'1" once fully grown), but they bring a ton of energy and grit on top of skill, skating, and IQ. The kinds of guys I would rather have in our lineup than Simmonds anyways.

And there are many successful teams which build around those types of guys. You are seeing new guys like them far more often than you see slower physical guys come up.

We are not drafting a bunch of the same sort of player. Hirvonen is very different than Robertson, who is very different from Anderson (although we didn't draft him). They are not going to be filling the same roles even though they are all a similar size. And we are not drafting size for the sake of variance in our pool. If a guy like Knies pops up and he makes the most sense, we will draft him. But we didn't draft Knies because he was 6'2" and lays people out... and that won't be the reason we draft anyone else like him in the future. We probably would have still drafted Knies if he was 5'11".

Finland will be a more attractive place to scout now with the KHL factor diminishing..

Finland already didn't have that factor, outside of Jokerit, and I don't think anyone was concerned about drafting players from that system either.

Finland just has a very clear divide in terms of haves and have nots, much like Russia. Whereas a place like Sweden has a lot more of a gray area where you are more likely to find late round gems.

 

[ACC1224]

Having not been able to draft a starting goalie has hurt this team.

 

[Lightsol]

Wish we could find a franchise goalie like we did with Rask.

Yeah, too bad we haven't had another draft where a consensus top 10 goalie pick fell to us in the 20's...

 

[ACC1224]

Yeah, too bad we haven't had another draft where a consensus top 10 goalie pick fell to us in the 20's...

There have been no decent goalies drafted league wide in the 20's or beyond?

Didn't the Ducks use the Leaf pick to draft Gibson?

 

[banks]

There have been no decent goalies drafted league wide in the 20's or beyond?

I'd agree that it's worth drafting a few goalies every few years. I know goalies are voodoo, and there's almost never a good consensus goalie pick at any given point in the draft. But drafting a goalie or two every year or two would be a good idea. They only drafted 3 in the last 8 drafts.

Here's some picks we made during the Hunter years, and the next picked goalie after each.

Dermott > Blackwood
Timashov > Vejmelka
Korshkov > Hart

That's with hindsight, it's true. But maybe taking a few more stabs at a goalie would be a good idea. Lots of good goalies go late precisely because goalies are voodoo.

 

[Jeffrey Pedler]

Wish we could find a franchise goalie like we did with Rask.

The biggest problem for the Leafs rebuild/build has definitely been an inability to find impact players outside of the first round. Be it by luck or smart scouting teams like Tampa end up with guys like Point from the 3rd round. That hasn't happened with the Leafs

They've managed to find depth guys, and some useful pieces like Dermott, Brown, Engvall, but no real impact players.

Fingers crossed the last 3-4 draft cycles start to show some results. There's definitely more than a few interesting guys in the system, we just need them to take the next step.

I would love to see Robertson take the next step, but will he be given a chance or do they sign another free agent as a stop gap.

Hopefully some of the Marlies players get a look in the big league. I just hope people are right about Dubas recent drafts. If Knies can be a left winger on any line, it should be a success of a pick.

 

[fahad203]

One of the problem is we draft the exact same player every year

Abramov, SDA, Abruzzee, Robertsson, Hirvonen

Everyone drafted I'm 2019 has the exact same profile at least physically

Now that doesn't mean you draft a goon. Saying that before someone jumps the gun. Oh my God, you want them to draft goons. How was Hunter years ? All that

Pick the best overall player but pick different style of players.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I think it's more of a development problem. We are signing and assigning prospects to the Marlies very early on and it doesn't seem to amount to any increased development. Guys like Sandin and Robertson looked like great value picks from their D+1 seasons, but never really built on them.

 

[Stephen]

Hunter was really promising at the beginning but ended up being worse than the previous decade of poor drafting we had before he came. Tried way too hard to make low IQ fridge picks work out and it wasted far too many quality picks. Not surprised this guy doesn't have an NHL job anymore.

Otherwise, it is still a bit early to tell. 2018 and 2019 is only now starting to break through, and we may see a fair number of guys from those drafts (Holmberg, Abruzzese, Robertson, etc.). I am hoping Dubas' drafts turn out a lot better, and they certainly look at a lot better in terms of development than Hunter's drafts, but we will see in the next couple of years if they amount to impact NHLers.

Focusing on IQ and skill is definitely the way to go, and it is definitely looking like it is paying off for the top 100 picks thus far, but they still have some blind spots that they need to work out; namely Russia and drafting low upside offensive defensemen like Hollowell, Fusco, Loponen, and Rindell. Drafting guys like Koster, Sandin, and Niemela are fine because they are at least strong in their own end even if they are not huge, but those other guys simply do not have roles in the NHL unless they can completely translate their offensive abilities.

It is definitely not focusing on building this team through UFA and trades though. We just sucked at drafting for some time and had to find other (creative) avenues to backfill our poor drafting. Bargain bin/Euro/NCAA/CHL UFA's have been good to us so it is not nearly as much of a disaster as it could have been.

Hunter drafted a lot of crap skill players too. His problem wasn’t a philosophical focus on certain player types but just mostly not hitting on each player type.

 

[Apex Predator]

Dubas’ draft picks do like more promising but we’ll see in a couple of years how some of them pan out.

 

[Steven1562]

I'd agree that it's worth drafting a few goalies every few years. I know goalies are voodoo, and there's almost never a good consensus goalie pick at any given point in the draft. But drafting a goalie or two every year or two would be a good idea. They only drafted 3 in the last 8 drafts.

Here's some picks we made during the Hunter years, and the next picked goalie after each.

Dermott > Blackwood
Timashov > Vejmelka
Korshkov > Hart

That's with hindsight, it's true. But maybe taking a few more stabs at a goalie would be a good idea. Lots of good goalies go late precisely because goalies are voodoo.

Also Liljegren > Oettinger might be a miss in the future.