GDT: All things training camp

[scelaton]

His numbers are similar if you use around a 0.5 equivalency. He's 9 years younger. He plays a much more agitating style, which I think the Jets really need, and he costs 3 million less.

Iafallo is a fine player, but $4 million for a 30 year old 4th liner who's going in the wrong direction is money that could be better spent elsewhere IMO.

I agree with your line of reasoning. (It's the same LOR that could have been used for Heinola previously, but let's not get into that )

No one is saying Chibrikov will be definitively better than Iafallo, but there is persuasive visual and statistical evidence to suggest that he will be 'non-inferior'. There is little to lose and much potential gain for the Jets to be a bit less risk-averse with selected young prospects.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Salo sent down Jets going with 3 tenders to start the season

??????????????

And keeping Coglan.

 

[Buffdog]

He's 22. Petan and De Leo are 29 and 28 respectively. He also plays a significantly different style than either. It's almost like some folks just look at the scoring leaders.

Nic Petan had 52 points in 52 games in the AHL when he was 22 (better than Chibs)

Historical scoring is one of the strongest predictors of future success in the NHL but isn't a direct correlation

You've made my point though. You seem to believe for some reason that Chibs will be successful in the NHL. He may very well be. But he could also never amount to anything

That's why orgs take a proven vet over an unproven rookie when they want to win. They can't afford to create a gap.in their line up if the kid doesn't pan out

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Agreed. It is way past over due that this organization inject youth and talent over the status quo. It seems we are always more worried about losing a 4th line/PB/Tweener then building for the future. We keep guys around like Kupari that are a dime a dozen with many comparable players just released on waivers. Instead of giving roles to future building blocks so they can get NHL experience and grow into their roles. We were most successful as an organization after a couple years of flooding the team with talented youth in the 15-16 and 16-17 season and then going on a playoff run 17-18. The organization is way to damn conservative IMO.

And, as an aside to this - Conservative, status quo, almost but not quite good, etc, doesn't sell tickets.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The bolded is a myth. Bringing in 18 y/o freshly drafted players or still junior eligible players is rushing and risking development. But both Lambert and Salo are D +3 and Chibrokov is D +4. Hell Perfetti is only D +5 and is on his 2nd contract.

Not exactly. Some kids learn to swim by being thrown into the deep end. Some drown.

It is different with each prospect. To start, it depends on their skill-sets. But then there are other factors, maturity, strength of self-confidence, physical maturity, etc.

Generally I like to think of it in terms of setting them up to succeed vs setting them up to fail. That is a simplification, of course. But I think an org won't go far wrong if they use that as a guideline. But again, it will vary with each individual.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

The thing is you aren't going to hurt Chibrokov in the NHL. He will be turning 22 this season and is D +4. He has a year of KHL experience and a year of AHL experience. Let him play in the NHL and he very well might grow by leaps and bounds by playing his tenacious style of game with NHL players.

Among F prospects, I still see Chib as most NHL ready, in spite of some holes in his game. Players will only develop so far playing against lesser competition. At some point they need to play against better players to improve.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can't make roster decisions based on a few meaningless preseason games vs other teams AHL/ECHL/CHL players

True - but there is also his body of work.

 

[cneely]

Nic Petan had 52 points in 52 games in the AHL when he was 22 (better than Chibs)

Historical scoring is one of the strongest predictors of future success in the NHL but isn't a direct correlation

You've made my point though. You seem to believe for some reason that Chibs will be successful in the NHL. He may very well be. But he could also never amount to anything

That's why orgs take a proven vet over an unproven rookie when they want to win. They can't afford to create a gap.in their line up if the kid doesn't pan out

Chibrikov hasn't played his 22-23 year old season yet. If you want to compare apples to apples, in his D+3 year, Petan and Chibrikov were almost identical. 0.68 PPG for Petan, 0.67 for Chibrikov. Of course, that was also Chibrikov's first year in North America which comes with some unique challenges.

Scoring is a strong predictor for sure, but not the be all and end all. Sometimes, scoring isn't the goal though. Adam Lowry was 0.5 PPG in his first full year of pro, also his draft +3 year. I don't think scoring was ever going to be Lowry's ticket to the show. For me, Chibrikov brings that high motor, agitating style that the Jets keep losing (Essymont, Tanev), and need desperately.

You will never know if he's never going to amount to anything if you don't give him a shot (and don't stunt his growth or alienate him along the way). Pulling a guy like Barron or Appleton or Iafallo out of the lineup to give a kid like Chibrikov a shot is definitely not that big of a risk.

 

[Buffdog]

You will never know if he's never going to amount to anything if you don't give him a shot (and don't stunt his growth or alienate him along the way). Pulling a guy like Barron or Appleton or Iafallo out of the lineup to give a kid like Chibrikov a shot is definitely not that big of a risk.

It's a huge risk for a team that's competitive. Less so for a rebuilding team. Why do it? The time to integrate youth is when they're a clear upgrade over what's there now. Chibs isn't (yet)

The fact that you've pointed out that Petan and Chibs are equivalent at the same point in their careers is you making my point for me

I also don't think that you're factoring in play away from the puck, which is what coaches value in bottom 6 guys. Iafallo, Appleton and Barron have it figured out at the NHL level. Chibs hasn't

 

[gojetsgo]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843701826711105995

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

“If I’m a young player in the Jets organization today, I’m pretty excited about the opportunities in front of me. I’m working hard in the off-season to make sure I can take full advantage,” said Cheveldayoff.

….. right. Ok. Have to say, it is a bit funny.

Anyways, im nonetheless excited for the season. But wished that the organization had the nerve to actually do what they insinuated, and I have a feeling if they want to take a step forward, they’ll have to take a risk by playing some of these young players that didn’t make the team. Those are my thoughts

Or, you could have just said the bolded.

 

[cneely]

It's a huge risk for a team that's competitive. Less so for a rebuilding team. Why do it? The time to integrate youth is when they're a clear upgrade over what's there now. Chibs isn't (yet)

Agree to disagree I guess. Chibrikov (and Lambert for that matter) are better players than a handful of guys on the opening night roster.

The fact that you've pointed out that Petan and Chibs are equivalent at the same point in their careers is you making my point for me

Hmmm. Weird, cause I that's the opposite of what I pointed out. They are at very different points of their careers (first year in NA for Chibrikov last year) and they are very, very different players.

I also don't think that you're factoring in play away from the puck, which is what coaches value in bottom 6 guys. Iafallo, Appleton and Barron have it figured out at the NHL level. Chibs hasn't

Again, I guess we will agree to disagree. Putting Chibrikov in over a lesser player is not going to hurt you.

 

[Buffdog]

Agree to disagree I guess. Chibrikov (and Lambert for that matter) are better players than a handful of guys on the opening night roster.

Hmmm. Weird, cause I that's the opposite of what I pointed out. They are at very different points of their careers (first year in NA for Chibrikov last year) and they are very, very different players.

Again, I guess we will agree to disagree. Putting Chibrikov in over a lesser player is not going to hurt you.

I'm still unclear why (aside from your opinion) you consider Appleton, Barron and Kupari as lesser players to chibrikov

In order to accurately make that statement, you'd need to know exactly what kind of NHL player Chibrikov is - and you don't (aside from a small, shitty sample size of mean-nothing games)

Admit it, it's wishful thinking. Which is fine, but hardly a rationale for building an NHL roster

 

[TS Quint]

same management & promoted a coach already within the organization... why do ppl think there would be some fundamental change? i remember a poster shitting on bowness and being glad he's gone b/c he would have not had prospects on the team..... hope folks keep the same energy now for chevy (lol yea right, never his fault) & arniel.

the team was 30-12-5 with Names at 2C, and the 2nd line usually fairing better than the top-line (sans Ehlers). the entire top-6 or 9, really the entire fwd group to start last year was still under contract, easy to predict the group but hey wont someone think of the prospects!!!

I think the Lowry line is not a great spot for an inexperienced fwd whose game is suited for more offense. few years ago, i thought Vesalainen was terribly miscast for that line, he needed to play with higher offensive IQ or skilled players in my view & i think the same may be valid for Lambert. not to mention, the lowry line - including appleton - was fine last year. Appleton is commonly shit on for some reason. could they use an upgrade? sure, however it's not like his stats were worse than other 2 linemates & i am doubtful a prospect comes in and puts up 35-40 pts in that role.

and on the 4th line... this idea of a "prospect 4th line" is a bit out to lunch imo. i checked a handful of PO caliber or bubble PO teams a few days ago - granted it might be more pertinent to check again given the cuts - however, i think i counted maybe 2-3 players considered prospects over those ~10 or so teams. the Jets 4th line will go nights of sub-7 mins too like you mentioned. when they do, the subsequent posts of "you're ruining them" will come out. again, idk why ppl forecast or predict some huge change in philosophy when it's been the same management crew running the team, & they're doing what other similarly ranked teams are doing.

Vesalienen got WAY more than he deserved. That guy was slow and brain dead. The only chance he had was to kick the puck around the boards with Lowry.

 

[cneely]

I'm still unclear why (aside from your opinion) you consider Appleton, Barron and Kupari as lesser players to chibrikov

In order to accurately make that statement, you'd need to know exactly what kind of NHL player Chibrikov is - and you don't (aside from a small, shitty sample size of mean-nothing games)

Admit it, it's wishful thinking. Which is fine, but hardly a rationale for building an NHL roster

What do you see in Barron that makes him a better player than Chibrikov?

He's big, but doesn't really use his size. He has a career high of 31 pms.
He doesn't score much. Doesn't present much talent.
He does safe things, chipping it out and getting sticks in lanes. Do you think that makes him a better hockey player, and that a player with more skill who has shown to be a hard worker can't learn that?

 

[Thechozen1]

Can’t wait for the endless procrastination with YAGER on the Moose and not with the Jets in 2026-27

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I agree with your line of reasoning. (It's the same LOR that could have been used for Heinola previously, but let's not get into that )

No one is saying Chibrikov will be definitively better than Iafallo, but there is persuasive visual and statistical evidence to suggest that he will be 'non-inferior'. There is little to lose and much potential gain for the Jets to be a bit less risk-averse with selected young prospects.

I think that is the wrong comparison. I think Chibs is/would be better than Kupari. I'm not swayed by the fact that Kupari is a C because I think Gus is a better 4C than Kup is. So waive Kupari and play a 4th line of Iafallo - Gus - Chib.

Yeah, yeah, I know. Chibrikov needs to play more than 8-10 minutes a game. That may be true but playing on that line will allow him to improve his D play and play away from the puck until he can push Appleton down.

I'm less certain of the benefit of keeping Salo. He is a RHD and we don't have a vacancy there right now, even with 2 Dmen out. They are both LHS. He has shown that he can play the left side but is that the ideal way to integrate him into the NHL?

I think we need to get Salo some NHL games this year so that he can be ready to replace Pionk next year. Not sure that this is the time for that though.

 

[Buffdog]

What do you see in Barron that makes him a better player than Chibrikov?

He's big, but doesn't really use his size. He has a career high of 31 pms.
He doesn't score much. Doesn't present much talent.
He does safe things, chipping it out and getting sticks in lanes. Do you think that makes him a better hockey player, and that a player with more skill who has shown to be a hard worker can't learn that?

This part is more important for a bottom 6 player than you think. That part of your line up doesn't need to win games for you, but it can't cost you games either

If/when Chibs shows he can do those things at the AHL level, he will get a shot. That's not something you let a guy like Chibs learn on the fly in the NHL.

Not to mention that Barron has outscored Chibs at the AHL level (albeit as an older player) - so I'm not sure why you say that he's any less skilled. Any player that makes it to the NHL was the most skilled kid in their cohort at 16, 17 years old

If Chibs shows he can put up a point per game in the AHL in his D+4 year, I'll consider him as skilled as Barron

 

[surixon]

This part is more important for a bottom 6 player than you think. That part of your line up doesn't need to win games for you, but it can't cost you games either

If/when Chibs shows he can do those things at the AHL level, he will get a shot. That's not something you let a guy like Chibs learn on the fly in the NHL.

Not to mention that Barron has outscored Chibs at the AHL level (albeit as an older player) - so I'm not sure why you say that he's any less skilled. Any player that makes it to the NHL was the most skilled kid in their cohort at 16, 17 years old

If Chibs shows he can put up a point per game in the AHL in his D+4 year, I'll consider him as skilled as Barron

The way we utilize our 4th line it's really a graveyard for players who like to play a skilled puck possesion game. Players like Barron who's game leans more towards simple dump and chase do well in these roles.

I'd prefer to run something more dynamic but given how this org prefers to deploy a guy like Barron is a better choice.

I think that is the wrong comparison. I think Chibs is/would be better than Kupari. I'm not swayed by the fact that Kupari is a C because I think Gus is a better 4C than Kup is. So waive Kupari and play a 4th line of Iafallo - Gus - Chib.

Yeah, yeah, I know. Chibrikov needs to play more than 8-10 minutes a game. That may be true but playing on that line will allow him to improve his D play and play away from the puck until he can push Appleton down.

I'm less certain of the benefit of keeping Salo. He is a RHD and we don't have a vacancy there right now, even with 2 Dmen out. They are both LHS. He has shown that he can play the left side but is that the ideal way to integrate him into the NHL?

I think we need to get Salo some NHL games this year so that he can be ready to replace Pionk next year. Not sure that this is the time for that though.

Well he's down with the Moose and is playing in their exhibition game against the Bisons tonight so I doubt he's up again anytime soon.

 

[gojetsgo]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843712135035326506

 

[surixon]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1843712135035326506

Interesting. I guess a goalie is going down tomorrow.

 

[Buffdog]

The way we utilize our 4th line it's really a graveyard for players who like to play a skilled puck possesion game. Players like Barron who's game leans more towards simple dump and chase do well in these roles.

I'd prefer to run something more dynamic but given how this org prefers to deploy a guy like Barron is a better choice.



Well he's down with the Moose and is playing in their exhibition game against the Bisons tonight so I doubt he's up again anytime soon.

Even skilled, puck protection guys have to be able to play away from the puck

Look at all those talent-laden Oilers teams who couldn't win - it's because coaches couldn't get the big guns to buy into that style of play

Being able to be responsible defensively is what is referred to as "pro-ready". Watch a guy like Yager - he's already always on the right side of the puck, knows where to put his stick, etc. His development will be more about physical size than style of play

Andrew Copp was like that in NCAA. It's why he largely forewent time in the AHL

 

[ICdave]

Media:

 

[cneely]

This part is more important for a bottom 6 player than you think. That part of your line up doesn't need to win games for you, but it can't cost you games either

If/when Chibs shows he can do those things at the AHL level, he will get a shot. That's not something you let a guy like Chibs learn on the fly in the NHL.

Not to mention that Barron has outscored Chibs at the AHL level (albeit as an older player) - so I'm not sure why you say that he's any less skilled. Any player that makes it to the NHL was the most skilled kid in their cohort at 16, 17 years old

If Chibs shows he can put up a point per game in the AHL in his D+4 year, I'll consider him as skilled as Barron

Barron has one strange year at 22 years old when he had 21 points in 21 games. He's never come near that again. He's had 17 points in 30 games since then, but small sample size, so it has to be taken for what it is.

I recognize it's important not to get caved in but why can't your third and 4th lines win you games?

 

[cneely]

Even skilled, puck protection guys have to be able to play away from the puck

Look at all those talent-laden Oilers teams who couldn't win - it's because coaches couldn't get the big guns to buy into that style of play

Being able to be responsible defensively is what is referred to as "pro-ready". Watch a guy like Yager - he's already always on the right side of the puck, knows where to put his stick, etc. His development will be more about physical size than style of play

Andrew Copp was like that in NCAA. It's why he largely forewent time in the AHL

But the Jets top guys continue to get caved in from a chance perspective and that's okay? Seems to be a conflicting message.