Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Aries56]

Carolina is a good trading partner, they really wanted Guentzel. I feel like they're desperate enough to put up a descent offer. It didn't sound like Chevy was planning to move Ehlers based on his presser, so it would take something significant to move him.

Wasn't there a rumor out of Buffalo that Chevy's ask is sky high, and he wanted 4 assets, with 3 of them being top-tier? I would think it would have to be Necas++, especially if extended.

 

[Whileee]

Working off the Canes wanting Ehlers rumour. The most probably return would be Necas, but even if both were extended Ehlers is more valuable. I don't think the Canes would add a 1st, but maybe a 2nd? Not sure if that is enough. But if that is enough to add to McGroarty to get Jiricek from Columbus would it be worth it? Net result Ehlers and McGroarty out, Necas and Jiricek in. Might be a way to get a young potential top pairing RHD into the organization?

I think the complication might be that Necas might be reluctant to sign long-term with the Jets. If so, that greatly diminishes his value for the Jets. But maybe a 3-team trade could work out. Ehlers and Necas have similar value (if extended), and the Jets might be able to squeeze high value out of the Canes because their aren't likely many teams ready to move a top end offensive talent for Necas.

 

[surixon]

That would be the dream, but I can't imagine the Canes would put him into play.

Especially with loosing two top 4 dmen this offseason. He's almost assured a role for them.

 

[FlappyGiraffe]

Would be fun to see Chevy take this rookie GM's lunch money here. Pressure is on for the canes after losing so many big pieces this offseason

 

[JetsFan815]

Necas and Ehlers had similar xGF% and corsi numbers last season, although actual goal differential Ehlers was much much better

Pretty sure the xGF% was the prime stat that people were using to complain about both connor/schief combo and Ehlers not playing with Schief and Vilardi

Ehlers xGF% is on an average team in that metric, a decent xGF% on Carolina is nothing to write how about considering they are the best team in that metric by far and you get a boost just be being on the ice.

If you look at Relative Teammate xGF% which isolates some of the team impact Ehlers ranks 46 out of 368 forwards and Necas ranks 317 out of 368. They are not the same level of player. Beside all one needs to do is see how excited Carolina fans are to be rid of him to know the picture. If the Jets get Necas they will be doubling down on the same Scheifele/Connor bad defense spending entire shifts in your own zone type of play.

 

[Buffdog]

Ehlers xGF% is on an average team in that metric, a decent xGF% on Carolina is nothing to write how about considering they are the best team in that metric by far and you get a boost just be being on the ice.

If you look at Relative Teammate xGF% which isolates some of the team impact Ehlers ranks 46 out of 368 forwards and Necas ranks 317 out of 368. They are not the same level of player. Beside all one needs to do is see how excited Carolina fans are to be rid of him to know the picture. If the Jets get Necas they will be doubling down on the same Scheifele/Connor bad defense spending entire shifts in your own zone type of play.

Thanks for the "yeah, but". I knew it was coming

What good are stats if you have to go into some dissertation every time they don't reflect what you want them to?

 

[KingBogo]

I think the complication might be that Necas might be reluctant to sign long-term with the Jets. If so, that greatly diminishes his value for the Jets. But maybe a 3-team trade could work out. Ehlers and Necas have similar value (if extended), and the Jets might be able to squeeze high value out of the Canes because their aren't likely many teams ready to move a top end offensive talent for Necas.

So if we work off of the premise that the Canes are pushing hard and Necas is no guarantee to sign long term. Are the Canes willing to add a 1st? Necas has 2 years of control and will at the very least go to arbitration to get a deal this season. Chevy can kick the can the road this season and get an extra 1st round pick next season. Necas either works out and signes long term after that or he can be moved at the TDL or after the season for a decent return. Maybe another 1st and prospect.

 

[Buffdog]

So if we work off of the premise that the Canes are pushing hard and Necas is no guarantee to sign long term. Are the Canes willing to add a 1st? Necas has 2 years of control and will at the very least go to arbitration to get a deal this season. Chevy can kick the can the road this season and get an extra 1st round pick next season. Necas either works out and signes long term after that or he can be moved at the TDL or after the season for a decent return. Maybe another 1st and prospect.

Are you assuming that Ehlers comes with an extension?

If not its one year of Ehlers vs two of Necas

Both guys would get a 1st at the TDL in their last year of control

 

[JetsFan815]

So if we work off of the premise that the Canes are pushing hard and Necas is no guarantee to sign long term. Are the Canes willing to add a 1st? Necas has 2 years of control and will at the very least go to arbitration to get a deal this season. Chevy can kick the can the road this season and get an extra 1st round pick next season. Necas either works out and signes long term after that or he can be moved at the TDL or after the season for a decent return. Maybe another 1st and prospect.

I doubt Carolina will add a 1st round pick on top of Necas. They have pretty much only moved a 1st once in the last decade and it was for Guentzel. I am personally hoping we are in on one of the Carolina prospect or NHL d-men if we are trading with them... lots of good players there. Also very hard to "win" a trade with that team so I'd be very careful that we are actually getting good value if trading with them.

 

[KingBogo]

Are you assuming that Ehlers comes with an extension?

If not its one year of Ehlers vs two of Necas

Both guys would get a 1st at the TDL in their last year of control

I think the Canes could be pretty confident in signing Ehlers. A perennial contender, high end players to play with, nice climate weather wise. The Jets extending Nexas is a much bigger up hill climb, though players do tend to like it here after they have been here awhile.

 

[KingBogo]

I doubt Carolina will add a 1st round pick on top of Necas. They have pretty much only moved a 1st once in the last decade and it was for Guentzel. I am personally hoping we are in on one of the Carolina prospect or NHL d-men if we are trading with them... lots of good players there. Also very hard to "win" a trade with that team so I'd be very careful that we are actually getting good value if trading with them.

They are also under new management, and a guy with an analytics background who just might weigh the likelihood of a late 1st becoming a significant player against bringing in a possession beast to add to a core in the heart of their prime, that hasn't had the success they should have with their talent.

 

[gojetsgo]

I think if a deal around necas/ehlers does happen both teams will be talking extension with the players before it would be completed

 

[Jack7222]

Thanks for the "yeah, but". I knew it was coming

What good are stats if you have to go into some dissertation every time they don't reflect what you want them to?

"Stats aren't everything, the issue is all these people who believe that stats are the only thing that matter!"

"What good are stats if you can't cherry pick them and use them in isolation to win an argument without anyone muddying them up with added context?!"

- same person, confusingly

 

[Tasteless Beaver]

The Coghlan for a conditional 7th rumor is weird, it seems like it's a done deal but hasn't been announced officially. It's rare that minor league trades like that gets shared (presumably by the agent/player) but don't get confirmation from the franchise(s). The only reason I can think of is that it's part of a bigger deal that hasn't been completed yet - Necas/Ehlers swap pending an extension?

 

[Buffdog]

"Stats aren't everything, the issue is all these people who believe that stats are the only thing that matter!"

"What good are stats if you can't cherry pick them and use them in isolation to win an argument without anyone muddying them up with added context?!"

- same person, confusingly

So which is it? Just to know, moving forward

All I'm asking for is consistency

If stats are all knowing, then Ehlers = Necas

If not, then don't use them alone to prove that Ehlers/Schief > Connor/Schief

Can't have your cake and eat it too

Thanks for making my point for me. I love it when you guys do that

 

[GeorgeJETson]

The Coghlan for a conditional 7th rumor is weird, it seems like it's a done deal but hasn't been announced officially. It's rare that minor league trades like that gets shared (presumably by the agent/player) but don't get confirmation from the franchise(s). The only reason I can think of is that it's part of a bigger deal that hasn't been completed yet - Necas/Ehlers swap pending an extension?

It is the 4th of July extra long weekend - lots of people in the NHL are probably taking time off.

So could be either IMO

 

[kylbaz]

Wow. Would have really liked Savoie in a McGroarty trade. Seems like a steal for the Oilers.

What in the fff

 

[surixon]

Well if Ehlers for Necas does go down the it's probably us kicking the can down one more year.

 

[DRW204]

Necas imo is pretty overhyped his stats are kind of meh on a V good team. I wouldn't move more than a 1st for him (mid to late).

 

[Buffdog]

Necas and Drury both filed for arbitration

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Carolina is a good trading partner, they really wanted Guentzel. I feel like they're desperate enough to put up a descent offer. It didn't sound like Chevy was planning to move Ehlers based on his presser, so it would take something significant to move him.

Wasn't there a rumor out of Buffalo that Chevy's ask is sky high, and he wanted 4 assets, with 3 of them being top-tier? I would think it would have to be Necas++, especially if extended.

Or, better yet, a return not featuring Necas as the main piece coming back.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think if a deal around necas/ehlers does happen both teams will be talking extension with the players before it would be completed

That might be a good thing - if Necas refuses.

Or, neither team gets to talk extension and the lack of term is treated as a sawoff.

So which is it? Just to know, moving forward

All I'm asking for is consistency

If stats are all knowing, then Ehlers = Necas

If not, then don't use them alone to prove that Ehlers/Schief > Connor/Schief

Can't have your cake and eat it too

Thanks for making my point for me. I love it when you guys do that

Stats aren't all knowing though - and that is supposed to be your side in the debate. They are especially short of all knowing when only 1 stat is looked at.

 

[kylbaz]

Really hope it is not Necas. Nikishin please... although that's unlikely.

Very unlikely. What more would it cost I wonder.

 

[Buffdog]

That might be a good thing - if Necas refuses.

Or, neither team gets to talk extension and the lack of term is treated as a sawoff.



Stats aren't all knowing though - and that is supposed to be your side in the debate. They are especially short of all knowing when only 1 stat is looked at.

Preach on!

 

[Whileee]

With Necas filing for arbitration, it seems unlikely that Winnipeg will be his final destination. I doubt Chevy would want to deal with an arbitration and a player that likely forces his way out of Winnipeg. I wonder about a 3-team deal along the lines of:

To CAR: Ehlers
To CBJ: Necas (GM Waddell gets him back)
To WPG: Johnson (or Jiricek or Chinakhov + prospect)

If the Jets trade Ehlers, Carolina seems the most logical destination but their main trade chip (Necas) might not be a good fit for the Jets.