All Purpose Morgan Rielly Discussion

[Notsince67]

Do you honestly believe he’s our best defenceman?

Mo is getting a raw deal here. He has consistently faced amongst the stiffest of competition in the league for years. People don't get that few dmen wouldn't get buried under that weight. He has slumps sure but we tend to over scrutinize here. I love a guy like Dermott but there is zero chance he could hold the line at this stage in his development

 

[Notsince67]

Did Babcock's system benefit Rielly?

He looks like a different Dman under keefe, and not in a good way.

I think the system Keefe tried to get him to play last year was undisciplined and ad hoc. This was an attempt to rev the offensive motor faster than the sump pump was lagging the water leak.
My guess is that Keefe needs to have a sit down and tell him to disregard his instruction last year. The run and gun-ish style needs to be stopped and we have seen rielly play responsible defense in the past.

 

[Fogelhund]

I've been saying this since last season. Rielly is nowhere near a top pairing defenseman. He's a offensive defenseman who lacks hockey sense and iq. His defensive game is abysmal. It's pretty sad when he's pretty much been our worst defenseman this season. Maybe our issue isn't finding Rielly a partner, I'm starting to think that maybe Rielly is the issue. I would definitely look at trading him this season.

The second post in this thread pretty much summed most of what I think of Mo. He has some elite offensive skills, but has never been good defensively. He needs "the right" partner, to keep him anywhere near average in his own end. Brodie isn't that, and no matter how much time we give them together, won't be that. Instead of a endless stream of partners who weren't right, at some point we have to realize that Mo is the problem. The Leafs aren't a strong defensive team, in particular at 5 v 5, and Mo is our leader in ice time for this. He is critical for our success, or lack of. Analytically he's not been very good, and he's been on ice for 2.4 GF/60 and 3.3 GA/60.... I mean, that's not a direct measure of a player, but by far he's our worst D in that stat... so he does own some of that. Mo's weaknesses, mirror the teams weakness, and really, he's a big reason for that. Your "best" D man, shouldn't need a babysitter, to play effective hockey, and Mo does. What he is good at, he is fantastic... but on balance, he isn't a guy you pay $8 mil to.


--> This year, Mo is the second worst D in the league in goals below replacement at -1.7. Only Gudbranson is worse.
---> Last year, out of 303 defenders, Rielly ranked 288th defensively at -3.6 xG below replacement defensively.
--->In 2018-19, Rielly ranked 321st out of 325 NHL D at -6 xG below replacement defensively.

Stats from @stephen_burtch

He's a bottom 1% D man, defensively in this league... consistently, and for years.

Yes, I know what he brings offensively, but we must also recognize his shortcomings, and if his overall game is what we need at the price it will cost.

Edit...note, this graphic was before the Edmonton game... This pairing, hasn't even been good offensively this year, and is far worse than the team average.

 

[Mugzy97]

Absolutely not, please keep Rielly.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The second post in this thread pretty much summed most of what I think of Mo. He has some elite offensive skills, but has never been good defensively. He needs "the right" partner, to keep him anywhere near average in his own end. Brodie isn't that, and no matter how much time we give them together, won't be that. Instead of a endless stream of partners who weren't right, at some point we have to realize that Mo is the problem. The Leafs aren't a strong defensive team, in particular at 5 v 5, and Mo is our leader in ice time for this. He is critical for our success, or lack of. Analytically he's not been very good, and he's been on ice for 2.4 GF/60 and 3.3 GA/60.... I mean, that's not a direct measure of a player, but by far he's our worst D in that stat... so he does own some of that. Mo's weaknesses, mirror the teams weakness, and really, he's a big reason for that. Your "best" D man, shouldn't need a babysitter, to play effective hockey, and Mo does. What he is good at, he is fantastic... but on balance, he isn't a guy you pay $8 mil to.


--> This year, Mo is the second worst D in the league in goals below replacement at -1.7. Only Gudbranson is worse.
---> Last year, out of 303 defenders, Rielly ranked 288th defensively at -3.6 xG below replacement defensively.
--->In 2018-19, Rielly ranked 321st out of 325 NHL D at -6 xG below replacement defensively.

Stats from @stephen_burtch

He's a bottom 1% D man, defensively in this league... consistently, and for years.

Yes, I know what he brings offensively, but we must also recognize his shortcomings, and if his overall game is what we need at the price it will cost.

Good post. Tough decisions ahead.

 

[Critical13]

The second post in this thread pretty much summed most of what I think of Mo. He has some elite offensive skills, but has never been good defensively. He needs "the right" partner, to keep him anywhere near average in his own end. Brodie isn't that, and no matter how much time we give them together, won't be that. Instead of a endless stream of partners who weren't right, at some point we have to realize that Mo is the problem. The Leafs aren't a strong defensive team, in particular at 5 v 5, and Mo is our leader in ice time for this. He is critical for our success, or lack of. Analytically he's not been very good, and he's been on ice for 2.4 GF/60 and 3.3 GA/60.... I mean, that's not a direct measure of a player, but by far he's our worst D in that stat... so he does own some of that. Mo's weaknesses, mirror the teams weakness, and really, he's a big reason for that. Your "best" D man, shouldn't need a babysitter, to play effective hockey, and Mo does. What he is good at, he is fantastic... but on balance, he isn't a guy you pay $8 mil to.


--> This year, Mo is the second worst D in the league in goals below replacement at -1.7. Only Gudbranson is worse.
---> Last year, out of 303 defenders, Rielly ranked 288th defensively at -3.6 xG below replacement defensively.
--->In 2018-19, Rielly ranked 321st out of 325 NHL D at -6 xG below replacement defensively.

Stats from @stephen_burtch

He's a bottom 1% D man, defensively in this league... consistently, and for years.

Yes, I know what he brings offensively, but we must also recognize his shortcomings, and if his overall game is what we need at the price it will cost.

Edit...note, this graphic was before the Edmonton game... This pairing, hasn't even been good offensively this year, and is far worse than the team average.

Great post, Fogel.

It's dissapointing that his offensive metrics are starting to sag quite heavily as well.

For some reason people defend him to their deaths around here, but hand out criticism like it's candy when it comes to players who are performing much better: Marner, Matthews etc. Even Joe Thornton has been scrutinzed heavily this season despite being a top performer.

I thought people wanted accountability? Mo is a loveable guy, but he is hurting this team.

 

[Critical13]

Mo is getting a raw deal here. He has consistently faced amongst the stiffest of competition in the league for years. People don't get that few dmen wouldn't get buried under that weight. He has slumps sure but we tend to over scrutinize here. I love a guy like Dermott but there is zero chance he could hold the line at this stage in his development

I don't think he's getting the raw deal - he's a leader in this group and one of our highest paid players.

Keefe needs to stop spoon feeding top minutes. People here keep staying "No one else can handle those minutes" but ignore the fact that Mo has been absolutely destroyed playing these minutes and it's killing our 5v5 performance.

At this point, we need to at least try some other options because we're going to be looking at another dissapointing season if things stay the same. If we regressed to even a 30% PP, which would still be the best in the league over a full season, this team would be 3-6-1 rather than 7-2-1.

 

[al secord]

Always happy to know that the atoms get split here and not in the leaf boardroom.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

Yes he looks terrible in Keefe's system for sure. No one can deny it. It is obvious he is playing like a rover position.

Like last game he does his trademark race up ice with puck then goes nowhere and get pinned on wall and turns puck over. Guy plugs him on wall for an extra second (which is technically interference but no one calls it) and Mitch covers for him on defense on da Oilers rush. Well that will turn into a goal against virtually every single time. Mitch is brutal at defense and always has been since he was a kid. And Rielly was winded so he could not race back to help. His trademark play only works when there is net support but when a guy or two is changing it fails because he is not strong enough to eat pucks on wall. He should have realized this issue and dumped it in but his hockey IQ is not quite there as he missed da change. and then he got caught. These are little things but smart hockey IQ guys don't make those mistakes.

Overall his speed can't be replaced and we still don't have a perfect partner for him. I am starting to see we might not be able to get him a perfect partner. And if his contract demands are ridiculous like 7.5M AAV then maybe we got move him in off season. He needs a stabilizing big man who can skate with him and is very solid defensively. He also needs every centre he is on da ice with to always keep an eye out for covering him. Because he is not an all around defender we are unfortunately in this spot. Lots to figure out but current team roster and systems do not really work to get best from Rielly.

But I am starting to see Brodie more and more and he has increased his speed as season is progressing. He does have a great stick and now I can see why he will be valuable. To me he would be a great partner for Muzzy. Like hand in glove fit there. And if Holl keeps progressing maybe he becomes an option for Rielly.

 

[Critical13]

Yes he looks terrible in Keefe's system for sure. No one can deny it. It is obvious he is playing like a rover position.

Like last game he does his trademark race up ice with puck then goes nowhere and get pinned on wall and turns puck over. Guy plugs him on wall for an extra second (which is technically interference but no one calls it) and Mitch covers for him on defense on da Oilers rush. Well that will turn into a goal against virtually every single time. Mitch is brutal at defense and always has been since he was a kid. And Rielly was winded so he could not race back to help.

I believe it was Matthews who actually lost his man in coverage on that goal - he left him to double team the guy Mitch was defending. Mitch seemed to be in the right position and fine so I am not sure why Matthews made that decision, which left his man wide open for an easy goal.

However, your point still stands about Rielly's rush...great speed to bring the puck in, gets caught way too deep, turns it over, goal against. Seen it many times this season.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I wouldn't mind seeing him and Brodie split up and we run three more balanced pairs with all our defensemen playing in the 18-22 minute range. Currently that pair isn't working and we're sewering our #6 playing them 10-11 minutes per game. Spread our guys out, build familiarity with different partners and let the cream rise to the top.

 

[JT AM da real deal]

I believe it was Matthews who actually lost his man in coverage on that goal - he left him to double team the guy Mitch was defending. Mitch seemed to be in the right position and fine so I am not sure why Matthews made that decision, which left his man wide open for an easy goal.

However, your point still stands about Rielly's rush...great speed to bring the puck in, gets caught way too deep, turns it over, goal against. Seen it many times this season.

Matty got caught in no mans land no doubt ... as a centre he should have backed up Rielly but as I understand it our centres are not pleased with Rielly's constant rushes ... Mitch should never be in a spot where he is left to deal with a 3 on 2 where he is one of our 2 defenders so Rielly created it and then Matty took an offensive first position rather than play da right side of puck

 

[Clark4Ever]

If we're being honest, Rielly is a top tier offensive defenceman that is average defensively at best.

The decision to extend him will depend on his asking price. If he wants to be paid like a legit number one guy, we should move on. If he is willing to extend with a nominal raise then we should keep him.

 

[Critical13]

If we're being honest, Rielly is a top tier offensive defenceman that is average defensively at best.

The decision to extend him will depend on his asking price. If he wants to be paid like a legit number one guy, we should move on. If he is willing to extend with a nominal raise then we should keep him.

I don't think that's honest. If we're being honest, Rielly is a fast skating #2/3 OFD that is pretty good offensively (historically) but one of the worst defenders in the NHL. The numbers and the eye test back those up, and since Keefe has taken over, his offensive upside even comes into question.

 

[Notsince67]

I don't think he's getting the raw deal - he's a leader in this group and one of our highest paid players.

Keefe needs to stop spoon feeding top minutes. People here keep staying "No one else can handle those minutes" but ignore the fact that Mo has been absolutely destroyed playing these minutes and it's killing our 5v5 performance.

At this point, we need to at least try some other options because we're going to be looking at another dissapointing season if things stay the same. If we regressed to even a 30% PP, which would still be the best in the league over a full season, this team would be 3-6-1 rather than 7-2-1.

So you say that based on a 10 game sample size. I am not sure what you are looking at where you deem him irredeemable. He has made some mistakes sure but on the balance he hasnt been terrible except from some flurries and we did just come off 2 games with the 2 hottest forwards in the league.
Just to put it into perspective...because I know you have been looking at the stats...even though the sample sizes will create highly volatile results.

on ice xGF% of Riely 5x5...40.21%

Sucks right?

Ok...lets look at a few others

Brodie....40.01 ouch...there goes your theory
Werinski....41.84 a bit better but still crap
Jones....37.92 ohhh...maybe he needs to be put on waivers
Giordano....36.88 hmmm...retirement?
Manson...26.84 uhhh execution?
Ceci...49.37 best of the bunch...sellers remorse?

You need to calm down. Dont get sucked in the stats except for inter-game dynamics. The team is winning. The last loss wasnt on Rielly. When they get some more losses, let look to see what isnt working. Proposing trades right now when they lead the division is silly.

 

[Critical13]

So you say that based on a 10 game sample size. I am not sure what you are looking at where you deem him irredeemable. He has made some mistakes sure but on the balance he hasnt been terrible except from some flurries and we did just come off 2 games with the 2 hottest forwards in the league.
Just to put it into perspective...because I know you have been looking at the stats...even though the sample sizes will create highly volatile results.

on ice xGF% of Riely 5x5...40.21%

Sucks right?

Ok...lets look at a few others

Brodie....40.01 ouch...there goes your theory
Werinski....41.84 a bit better but still crap
Jones....37.92 ohhh...maybe he needs to be put on waivers
Giordano....36.88 hmmm...retirement?
Manson...26.84 uhhh execution?
Ceci...49.37 best of the bunch...sellers remorse?

You need to calm down. Dont get sucked in the stats except for inter-game dynamics. The team is winning. The last loss wasnt on Rielly. When they get some more losses, let look to see what isnt working. Proposing trades right now when they lead the division is silly.

The difference between those defencemen and Rielly, is that all of those defencemen have shown that this season is an aberration compared to their historical play, whereas Rielly's start is only very slightly off.

You can reasonably expect all of those players to regress quite a bit back towards their standard level of player. With Mo, that regression is quite a bit smaller and would still leave him in a bad place.

I'd like to see the pairing broken up so we can get a better feel for Brodie, because he looks quite good away from Rielly, especially on the PK. He complimented Gio and vice versa, while Rielly doesn't seem to work with almost any partner.

At the very least, let's try to shelter him from good players rather than force feed him those minutes.

 

[Notsince67]

The difference between those defencemen and Rielly, is that all of those defencemen have shown that this season is an aberration compared to their historical play, whereas Rielly's start is only very slightly off.

You can reasonably expect all of those players to regress quite a bit back towards their standard level of player. With Mo, that regression is quite a bit smaller and would still leave him in a bad place.

I'd like to see the pairing broken up so we can get a better feel for Brodie, because he looks quite good away from Rielly, especially on the PK. He complimented Gio and vice versa, while Rielly doesn't seem to work with almost any partner.

At the very least, let's try to shelter him from good players rather than force feed him those minutes.

I really dont know what you are talking about. Rielly was a Norris contender 2 years ago and had a fractured foot last year.

 

[Fogelhund]

So you say that based on a 10 game sample size. I am not sure what you are looking at where you deem him irredeemable. He has made some mistakes sure but on the balance he hasnt been terrible except from some flurries and we did just come off 2 games with the 2 hottest forwards in the league.
Just to put it into perspective...because I know you have been looking at the stats...even though the sample sizes will create highly volatile results.

Except we've quote three years of stats... not just the last 10 games. His defensive stats are consistently bad for years. Until now, we've said, "he just needs the right partner. This offseason, we will get him the right partner. " We bring in a guy, and it doesn't work.

For multiple reasons, we are nearing crunch time on Rielly... expansion draft... do we protect him, trade him, extend him? What does his next contract look like? If we keep him, who exactly do we need to get, to babysit him? If we move on from him, do we need to bring in a replacement, or let these guys run with it? If we keep him, and Brodie isn't the guy that works... or if we try Holl like @Critical91 suggests... and that doesn't work either... then we've got to go get another guy... and who do we move for that? Nylander?

To me, our 5v5 play doesn't look sustainable.... It's been poor and Rielly is a big part of that... then again, what is sustaining us, is our PP, and Rielly is also a big part of that. I thought Rielly should have been in consideration for the Captaincy... Always liked the guy. At some point though, you have to look at this objectively. How do we fix this problem? Maybe he is the problem, or a big contributor?

 

[Fogelhund]

I really dont know what you are talking about. Rielly was a Norris contender 2 years ago and had a fractured foot last year.

Let's not pretend that the Norris trophy has anything to do with defensive capabilities. Nobody denies that Rielly has mostly been an elite offensive guy. I think we all agree with that.. what is in question, is his defensive deficiencies.

 

[Critical13]

Let's not pretend that the Norris trophy has anything to do with defensive capabilities. Nobody denies that Rielly has mostly been an elite offensive guy. I think we all agree with that.. what is in question, is his defensive deficiencies.

Agreed, and what seperates him from true #1D is that most of them are far more balanced - less good offensively, better defensively. When one of those suffers, the player is still very good. When Mo's offense struggles, he ends up getting caved in all game like we've seen recently.

Like you said - we're reach a pain point with expansion and the end of his contract looming.

 

[Notsince67]

Agreed, and what seperates him from true #1D is that most of them are far more balanced - less good offensively, better defensively. When one of those suffers, the player is still very good. When Mo's offense struggles, he ends up getting caved in all game like we've seen recently.

Like you said - we're reach a pain point with expansion and the end of his contract looming.

Limiting McDavid to 2 5x5 points in 4 games is not caving

 

[MapleLeafs77]

I dont know what happened to him recently. He was so good before. Then he started thinking that he needs to create goals and points constantly. Like you are a defenceman.

Focus on your end then worry about that stuff after. He has not looked normal the past 2 years.

Keefe needs to tell him to stop rushing everytime. We have amazing forwards who can carry that offence. Plus he needs to really focus on his own end. Its like he forgot how to defend overnight.

 

[rumman]

If we're being honest, Rielly is a top tier offensive defenceman that is average defensively at best.

The decision to extend him will depend on his asking price. If he wants to be paid like a legit number one guy, we should move on. If he is willing to extend with a nominal raise then we should keep him.

After seeing Dubas giving player friendly deals to WN, AM, MM, I’m pretty sure Reilly will be expecting a overly generous offer from the GM...........

 

[JT AM da real deal]

After seeing Dubas giving player friendly deals to WN, AM, MM, I’m pretty sure Reilly will be expecting a overly generous offer from the GM...........

This is what truly scares me ... MLSE generally doesn't care too much because Leafs could have double payroll, maybe even triple, and make tons of $$$ ... da CAP just makes Leafs even more profits .. so Leaf GMs can spend how they want unlike teams like in Carolina where da $$$ has to be earned and owner does not want to come out of his pocket personally ... but really what limits Dubie is da CAP and he has to deal with Zach 1st and he will this summer ... then sign another cheaper tender in UFA after expansion draft maybe Dell ... Rielly will get deferred until TDL following season ... but Dubie should do himself a favour and only leave 5M there in CAP so Rielly can see where he fits ... if he does not like it then we gotta move him for assets at TDL ... at 7.5M team can't improve our defense

 

[Critical13]

This is what truly scares me ... MLSE generally doesn't care too much because Leafs could have double payroll, maybe even triple, and make tons of $$$ ... da CAP just makes Leafs even more profits .. so Leaf GMs can spend how they want unlike teams like in Carolina where da $$$ has to be earned and owner does not want to come out of his pocket personally ... but really what limits Dubie is da CAP and he has to deal with Zach 1st and he will this summer ... then sign another cheaper tender in UFA after expansion draft maybe Dell ... Rielly will get deferred until TDL following season ... but Dubie should do himself a favour and only leave 5M there in CAP so Rielly can see where he fits ... if he does not like it then we gotta move him for assets at TDL ... at 7.5M team can't improve our defense

I am not 100% sure I would be happy with a long term deal at 5m at this point.