Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[Pinkfloyd]

BPA is so frequently not that clear. Even this year at 14, if we're looking at MBN, Eiserman, Solberg, Jiricek... Who's BPA? there's no consensus on these players, especially not for who they're going to be in 6 years and for how long. There's an outcome and a risk profile for each. Eiserman has the most elite single skill and has the highest draft profile but has fallen the most. Jiricek has pedigree but a risky injury profile. MBN may be closest to ready, but what does he have that's elite? Solberg is the massive riser who just held his own in an NHL-level tournament as an 18 year old and maybe his ceiling is super high but only in 7 years with risk.

Then there's the fact that D take longer to develop but they're drafted at the same time, which basically means that you're more likely to have a near-NHL ready "BPA" at forward in the first round. But does the player fit with what your team needs in 5 years, what's their peak, etc? I'd love to hear from actual professional front office people if they even discuss the concept of BPA.

It's not but when you go name by name, you can tell who is held in higher regard than others. Jiricek has only gotten as high as 14 because of our perceived team needs. Solberg, to my knowledge, hasn't made it higher than 15 and is off the board as a 1st round pick in many mocks. MBN and Eiserman have both been selected ahead of us as now Sennecke is. I think it's just going to be a wait and see on what's available and go from there. I don't really care which way it goes as long as it's leveraged in a way that makes the team better long term. Basically, as long as it's not moved for some older veteran player with a short term contract, I'll be fine with whatever happens. The important thing is getting Celebrini. Everything else is fun to talk about but ultimately nothing really hinges on it.

 

[Zarzh]

BPA is so frequently not that clear. Even this year at 14, if we're looking at MBN, Eiserman, Solberg, Jiricek... Who's BPA? there's no consensus on these players, especially not for who they're going to be in 6 years and for how long. There's an outcome and a risk profile for each. Eiserman has the most elite single skill and has the highest draft profile but has fallen the most. Jiricek has pedigree but a risky injury profile. MBN may be closest to ready, but what does he have that's elite? Solberg is the massive riser who just held his own in an NHL-level tournament as an 18 year old and maybe his ceiling is super high but only in 7 years with risk.

Then there's the fact that D take longer to develop but they're drafted at the same time, which basically means that you're more likely to have a near-NHL ready "BPA" at forward in the first round. But does the player fit with what your team needs in 5 years, what's their peak, etc? I'd love to hear from actual professional front office people if they even discuss the concept of BPA.

Solberg's rise is due to increased exposure, he's probably similar to most defensemen you'd get in the teens.

They largely don't, Craig Button seems to get a verbal twitch when he's asked about BPA in interviews as everyone has a different list based on what they value, and how much belief they have in each prospect.

 

[coooldude]

It's not but when you go name by name, you can tell who is held in higher regard than others. Jiricek has only gotten as high as 14 because of our perceived team needs. Solberg, to my knowledge, hasn't made it higher than 15 and is off the board as a 1st round pick in many mocks. MBN and Eiserman have both been selected ahead of us as now Sennecke is. I think it's just going to be a wait and see on what's available and go from there. I don't really care which way it goes as long as it's leveraged in a way that makes the team better long term. Basically, as long as it's not moved for some older veteran player with a short term contract, I'll be fine with whatever happens. The important thing is getting Celebrini. Everything else is fun to talk about but ultimately nothing really hinges on it.

I mean, you can only tell who is held in higher regard by all of us amateurs and pro journalists giving public opinions. Jiricek was a potential top 10 last season - that's why he's still in the picture, not because of team need. Solberg has now been listed twice in the 10-15 range. MBN has been 8-18 pretty much all season. But none of this tells us who the pro front offices see as "BPA" or whether such a concept holds any meaning at all except in obvious contexts like, e.g., last year's Reinbacher pick (which, who knows, may work out for them anyway). The concept of "Best" is extremely unsatisfying and oversimplified, in my opinion.

I agree that Celebrini is 90% of this draft's impact, and the 14 pick is probably 8% of the rest. I'm sure we'll come away with an exciting prospect and it could be a huge number of players.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I mean, you can only tell who is held in higher regard by all of us amateurs and pro journalists giving public opinions. Jiricek was a potential top 10 last season - that's why he's still in the picture, not because of team need. Solberg has now been listed twice in the 10-15 range. MBN has been 8-18 pretty much all season. But none of this tells us who the pro front offices see as "BPA" or whether such a concept holds any meaning at all except in obvious contexts like, e.g., last year's Reinbacher pick (which, who knows, may work out for them anyway). The concept of "Best" is extremely unsatisfying and oversimplified, in my opinion.

I agree that Celebrini is 90% of this draft's impact, and the 14 pick is probably 8% of the rest. I'm sure we'll come away with an exciting prospect and it could be a huge number of players.

Last season has less information than this season and Jiricek hasn't come close to cracking anyone's top 10. A lot of what's being held onto with Jiricek is family pedigree more than anything else. His play hasn't warranted anything but dropping especially with injury concerns. I don't think you're going to get a clear answer of BPA. I only use that as a means to say that the team needs to do what they think BPA is based on their info. There's too many variables past really 1 in this draft to be super confident in anyone going from where they are going into next month's draft and making it to the NHL in however many years.

 

[TheBeard]

Forwards will always been held in higher regard because more often than not they’re closer to finished products than defensemen.

 

[LadyStanley]

And goalies

 

[themelkman]

Forwards will always been held in higher regard because more often than not they’re closer to finished products than defensemen.

If you look at the stats they also have a higher impact on the game

 

[Star Platinum]

If you look at the stats they also have a higher impact on the game

 

[hohosaregood]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795672273481044394

Already training for the combine I gueas

 

[Sendhelplease]

If you look at the stats they also have a higher impact on the game

Not doubting you but what stats indicate this? Is there more I can read about it?

 

[Shark Finn]

Not doubting you but what stats indicate this? Is there more I can read about it?

Duh, the game plan is score goal and forwards score more goal. Easy!

 

[themelkman]

Not doubting you but what stats indicate this? Is there more I can read about it?

I honestly could be talking out of my ass here but I remember reading a really good article about it like a year ago that really convinced me. I have no idea where it was but I will do my best to find it.

 

[TheBeard]

I honestly could be talking out of my ass here but I remember reading a really good article about it like a year ago that really convinced me. I have no idea where it was but I will do my best to find it.

I think it’s probably easier to find good steady d-men in the later rounds but it’s harder to find more impactful top tier forwards beyond the first.

 

[Sendhelplease]

Duh, the game plan is score goal and forwards score more goal. Easy!

This sort of insight is why I go on this website. I never would have thought of that, thank you!

 

[OrrNumber4]

I think it’s probably easier to find good steady d-men in the later rounds but it’s harder to find more impactful top tier forwards beyond the first.

It's easier but still very difficult. Every other year you'll get a top-tier defenseman drafted outside the top-5. For centers, it's not even half a decade.

 

[bigsjfan]

https://x.com/i/web/status/1795672273481044394

Already training for the combine I gueas

Anyone else get the feeling like Rick might be our Tuffs replacement?

 

[Saskatoon]

Anyone else get the feeling like Rick might be our Tuffs replacement?

I could be wrong but you got to imagine the Warriors can afford to pay him more.

 

[OversKy]

Are there actually more example of Burns types winning the cup than Karlsson types? Thinking over the last like 8 years, I can't actually think of a big puck rushing shooter like Burns that led his team. I think you're more likely to see someone closer to Karlsson. There's several examples of more average sized but high end playmakers on defense than there are defensive shooters and rushers.

Not as offensively gifted but prime Parayko. He seems to have come down to earth since the cup run but the Blues suck. John Carlson with the Caps, Herberg with the Lightning. Nobody shoots like Burns did period though besides Ovechkin.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Not as offensively gifted but prime Parayko. He seems to have come down to earth since the cup run but the Blues suck. John Carlson with the Caps, Herberg with the Lightning. Nobody shoots like Burns did period though besides Ovechkin.

Seriously? I don’t really think any of these players are anything like Burns.

Parayko: Literally nothing like Burns other than being tall. Career high of 35 points, much better defensively, not nearly as good a skater.
Carlson: Bland as hell. Burns was an adventure every shift.
Hedman: Again, nothing in common except being tall. Hedman was great defensively in his prime (actually broke into the league as a defensive defenseman). I’ve never seen Hedman starfish once. Much more of a playmaker than a shot threat.

 

[OversKy]

Seriously? I don’t really think any of these players are anything like Burns.

Parayko: Literally nothing like Burns other than being tall. Career high of 35 points, much better defensively, not nearly as good a skater.
Carlson: Bland as hell. Burns was an adventure every shift.
Hedman: Again, nothing in common except being tall. Hedman was great defensively in his prime (actually broke into the league as a defensive defenseman). I’ve never seen Hedman starfish once. Much more of a playmaker than a shot threat.

Hedman turns the puckover quite a bit going the other way and has a 100+mph slapshot. I never thought much of him until he developed his offense to be frank. Stralman bailed him out like we had Ryan, Simek, and Ferraro to do the same when they go on rushes. Offensive defenceman just make pairings more important. Parayko had some offense to his game, especially his shot before he regressed offensively, maybe not puck rushing. Watch him play now and you'll see he's still physical. Whether that's the talent around him, his pairing, or just regression he's not a name I think of anymore. 2 of the 3 fit the mold of big physical puck rushing defenceman with booming shots, Parayko never really skated it out himself.

 

[Juxtaposer]

Hedman turns the puckover quite a bit going the other way and has a 100+mph slapshot. I never thought much of him until he developed his offense to be frank. Stralman bailed him out like we had Ryan, Simek, and Ferraro to do the same when they go on rushes. Offensive defenceman just make pairings more important. Parayko had some offense to his game, especially his shot before he regressed offensively, maybe not puck rushing. Watch him play now and you'll see he's still physical. Whether that's the talent around him, his pairing, or just regression he's not a name I think of anymore. 2 of the 3 fit the mold of big physical puck rushing defenceman with booming shots, Parayko never really skated it out himself.

I’m not sure what your point is. My point is that none of those players are stylistically comparable to Burns, because no one is stylistically comparable to Burns.

 

[landshark]

I’m not sure what your point is. My point is that none of those players are stylistically comparable to Burns, because no one is stylistically comparable to Burns.

Sergei Federov? I know he played some D but was mostly a forward. I feel like there's something there tho. Detroit just opted to make him a forward instead...

 

[one2gamble]

I’m not sure what your point is. My point is that none of those players are stylistically comparable to Burns, because no one is stylistically comparable to Burns.

What do you mean? There has to be more manwookiepigbeasts playing hockey somewhere

 

[TheBeard]

What do you mean? There has to be more manwookiepigbeasts playing hockey somewhere

They're all playing in the KHL (the Kashyyyk Hockey League)

Yeah, I did the research.

 

[Selachimorpha]

New Mock by the Athletic. Sharks grab Tij at #14.

Seems like for this to happen, Lindstrom falls to CGY. A few wingers drafted before Tij (Eiserman, Sennecke). And Solberg at #13.