Confirmed with Link: Alexis Lafreniere Signs Extension [7Y/7.45M AAV]

[The Crypto Guy]

A whole 5 game sample size!



It was one game...

So how are we suppose to get sample size of anything else if we are too stubborn to make a chance when something is failing? Not sure why you are so against changing something, even if it's just temporary, if something isn't working. That mindset cost us the series vs NJ.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

So how are we suppose to get sample size of anything else if we are too stubborn to make a chance when something is failing? Not sure why you are so against changing something, even if it's just temporary, if something isn't working. That mindset cost us the series vs NJ.

Because 5 games isn't evidence it's not working. Give me the year and a half sample size over 5 games. Arguably two and a half but I guess two seasons ago we had Strome there. But Trocheck is a better player on the PP and in general than Strome. I wouldn't say Laf is a better player on the PP than Mika or Trocheck.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Because 5 games isn't evidence it's not working. Give me the year and a half sample size over 5 games. Arguably two and a half but I guess two seasons ago we had Strome there. But Trocheck is a better player on the PP and in general than Strome. I wouldn't say Laf is a better player on the PP than Mika or Trocheck.

But nobody is saying he is. We are saying it doesn't hurt to just try it out once and awhile for a game or two if the current PP is getting to comfy with their ways or are stale for a bit. And players slump, Mika is slumping at the moment (zero PP goals in 10 games), Laf is thriving. Wouldn't be the worst time to see what happens.

 

[bhamill]

We were also told that he HAD to play on PP 1 for confidence reasons, turns out that was a bunch of BS too

I didn't tell you that. But of course I have said that being on PP1 would help his confidence. Because it would. There is quite a big difference there.

 

[lilphildub]

I guess you havent been watching the last 2 weeks. The PP is stale as ass.

I have been watching. There’s been a few good games where the PP had chances but couldn’t score. Others where they look like complete trash. And a game in the middle where Zibby wasn’t even playing. But that’s normal, every line or unit goes through slumps. Doesn’t mean we change it right away.

If Laf goes through a 4 game slump where he doesn’t score and starts looking like a passenger again, should we throw him on the third line with Bonino to spice things up? Or should we leave him with Panarin and Tro to figure it out long term?

 

[SnowblindNYR]

But nobody is saying he is. We are saying it doesn't hurt to just try it out once and awhile for a game or two if the current PP is getting to comfy with their ways or are stale for a bit. And players slump, Mika is slumping at the moment (zero PP goals in 10 games), Laf is thriving. Wouldn't be the worst time to see what happens.

We can do it for a game or two, what would that accomplish?

 

[Filthy Dangles]

Lafreniere historically played on his off wing on the PP, where Panarin plays. We all know Panarin isn't moving out of that spot.

If you replace Zibanejad with him, you now have 2 guys on their strong side, no one time option.

And Kreider and Trocheck are specialists obviously, Tro for faceoffs and doing all small things well, Kreider for net front.

There really isn't a fit. It would basically take an injury to one of the big guys for him to get on the 1st unit.

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I didn't tell you that. But of course I have said that being on PP1 would help his confidence. Because it would. There is quite a big difference there.

So would working on his skating. Which he did. Which has produced results.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

We can do it for a game or two, what would that accomplish?

Well, it could have a good effect where the PP scores a couple goals? If not, you put Mika back or whoever. No harm no foul.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Well, it could have a good effect where the PP scores a couple goals? If not, you put Mika back or whoever. No harm no foul.

To me either you think it's better long term or not. If it is you make the change long term, if it's not you don't. I don't think long term it'll be better.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

To me either you think it's better long term or not. If it is you make the change long term, if it's not you don't. I don't think long term it'll be better.

How can I answer that? Do I hope it's better long term? Sure. Do i know for sure, no.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

How can I answer that? Do I hope it's better long term? Sure. Do i know for sure, no.

But like a 1 or 2 game sample won't answer that. Our PP was pretty good with Gus instead of Fox too.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

But like a 1 or 2 game sample won't answer that. Our PP was pretty good with Gus instead of Fox too.

Exactly. That's why it doesn't hurt to put Laf there and we can see what happens while the current PP is stale.

 

[TopShelfSnipes]

Results for 3 years running and how many PP units in the history of the league have had a better percentage?

Yes, during the first record setting period of offensive production since the 2004-05 rule changes that start PP's in the offensive zone.

You can't really compare PP efficiency before 04-05 under old rules and in lower scoring times to today for any meaningful comparison. The game today is very different than 10 years ago, is extremely different from 20 years ago. It wasn't all that long ago, 20% was considered one of the best PP's in the league. '96 Red Wings won 62 games when the league had ties and scored 325 goals, and were only 21.1% on the PP. 1996 Penguins were at ~26% with Lemieux, Jagr, and Ron Francis basically playing on the same unit with Zubov at the point. 1993 and 2006, the two years the league "exploded" offensively (relatively), league average PP was 19.5% and 17.68% respectively. Last year's league average PP was 21.3%. This year it's still over 20. Powerplay rates across the league are at generational highs.

Trocheck wasn't there two years ago so the unit was different then.

So it's really one season (2022-23) being pointed to by everyone who hates the idea of trying something different, and that also just happened to coincide with Laf's worst season as a pro, possibly the worst season of his life. And now he's having his best NHL season by far, and is putting up great even strength metrics and is driving play. What exactly is that giving up? The three guys that drive the PP are still out there in comfortable spots to them, and our top faceoff man is still taking the opening draw and in the bumper.

OTOH, I don't understand the love affair with Mika this year. He's been pretty bad. Laf, on the other hand, is having his best season by far, and is dangerous with the puck in the offensive zone. Mika gives you the slap pass to Kreider which has not worked this year, and the one-timer which has worked 3 times in a calendar year. Other than that, he's not doing anything that any decent skater with an NHL shot can't do out there. He finishes setups he shouldn't miss, and sometimes someone buries his rebound or he dishes to Fox or Panarin who make a play. Once in a while he finds Kreider netmouth. He's not winning board battles. He's not recovering the puck like a champ. He's not shooting exceptionally well. It's not like I'm suggesting putting Bonino out there or something, or putting Fox in front of the net and Kreider at the point.

You're swapping a player who's clearly having a down year with a player who's having a career year and is one of the 3 top forwards on the team probably 4 out of 5 games. And you're moving your best player (Panarin) from a position he's succeeded in, to a different position he's succeeded in (left circle).

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Exactly. That's why it doesn't hurt to put Laf there and we can see what happens while the current PP is stale.

My point was that if Laf does well for a few games doesn't mean it's the most optimal lineup. Laf instead of Mika won't kill our PP, I just think it will not be the most optimal PP.

 

[bhamill]

So would working on his skating. Which he did. Which has produced results.

And which I said I'm certain he also did, and does every off season... Somehow though it didn't seem to make a difference in pre season, but when the regular season started and he started gaining confidence the results started coming. And those results and the coach giving him top line responsibilities and not pulling him for every misstep compounded his confidence so that from pre season to now the player is like night and day...
Logically the difference here IS confidence, since between pre season and regular there's no way he did that work on his skating. Hahahaha. I'm not sure what is controversial about this take or hard to grasp. If it was just the work he did on skating over the summer his skating would not have looked the same in pre season as it did last year. That is just beyond obvious.

 

[SnowblindNYR]

Yes, during the first record setting period of offensive production since the 2004-05 rule changes that start PP's in the offensive zone.

You can't really compare PP efficiency before 04-05 under old rules and in lower scoring times to today for any meaningful comparison. The game today is very different than 10 years ago, is extremely different from 20 years ago. It wasn't all that long ago, 20% was considered one of the best PP's in the league. '96 Red Wings won 62 games when the league had ties and scored 325 goals, and were only 21.1% on the PP. 1996 Penguins were at ~26% with Lemieux, Jagr, and Ron Francis basically playing on the same unit with Zubov at the point. 1993 and 2006, the two years the league "exploded" offensively (relatively), league average PP was 19.5% and 17.68% respectively. Last year's league average PP was 21.3%. This year it's still over 20. Powerplay rates across the league are at generational highs.

Trocheck wasn't there two years ago so the unit was different then.

So it's really one season (2022-23) being pointed to by everyone who hates the idea of trying something different, and that also just happened to coincide with Laf's worst season as a pro, possibly the worst season of his life. And now he's having his best NHL season by far, and is putting up great even strength metrics and is driving play. What exactly is that giving up? The three guys that drive the PP are still out there in comfortable spots to them, and our top faceoff man is still taking the opening draw and in the bumper.

OTOH, I don't understand the love affair with Mika this year. He's been pretty bad. Laf, on the other hand, is having his best season by far, and is dangerous with the puck in the offensive zone. Mika gives you the slap pass to Kreider which has not worked this year, and the one-timer which has worked 3 times in a calendar year. Other than that, he's not doing anything that any decent skater with an NHL shot can't do out there. He finishes setups he shouldn't miss, and sometimes someone buries his rebound or he dishes to Fox or Panarin who make a play. Once in a while he finds Kreider netmouth. He's not winning board battles. He's not recovering the puck like a champ. He's not shooting exceptionally well. It's not like I'm suggesting putting Bonino out there or something, or putting Fox in front of the net and Kreider at the point.

Yeah you can't compare the PP % to other eras but really in THIS era how much better can it be than 30%? And the shitty version of Mika is still one of the better PP players in the league. He's a PPG player while being invisible 5 on 5. Laf is a better 5 on 5 player.

 

[SA16]

Can I ask why we're mentioning that our PP is operating 12.5% over the last 5 games, which would be good for 31st in the league, when I was told it doesn't even make sense to use percentages to prorate numbers for the whole year?

Is it possibly because in one scenario the percentages fit the narrative being given and in the other they don't?

The PP does not need a different look or more options. It's like a baseball pitcher. Most relievers throw only 2 pitches. Most starters throw 3. The best reliever of all time threw 1. You don't need to throw a fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, splitter, sinker, and a knuckleball to be effective. You don't need to have multiple one time options and plays to be effective on PP. You perfect a few different ones and you go with it.

 

[The Crypto Guy]

Can I ask why we're mentioning that our PP is operating 12.5% over the last 5 games, which would be good for 31st in the league, when I was told it doesn't even make sense to use percentages to prorate numbers for the whole year?

Is it possibly because in one scenario the percentages fit the narrative being given and in the other they don't?

The PP does not need a different look or more options. It's like a baseball pitcher. Most relievers throw only 2 pitches. Most starters throw 3. The best reliever of all time threw 1. You don't need to throw a fastball, curveball, slider, changeup, splitter, sinker, and a knuckleball to be effective. You don't need to have multiple one time options and plays to be effective on PP. You perfect a few different ones and you go with it.

You seem to get confused easily as nobody is saying those numbers are for the whole year. It was just a fact of what the percentage has been for the 5 games. Try to follow along if you want to get involved.

 

[Levitate]

Lafreniere historically played on his off wing on the PP, where Panarin plays. We all know Panarin isn't moving out of that spot.

If you replace Zibanejad with him, you now have 2 guys on their strong side, no one time option.

I mean, we've also complained that having all righty shots on the PP is bad and rotating Panarin to Zibanejad's spot and Laf to the other side isn't a wild idea. Panarin doesn't have the velocity of Zibanejad but he's been scoring on a lot of one timers from the left side

but yeah probably not going to happen. ALso don't think the PP is really stale so much...they have gotten chances and currently the luck is kinda against them.

e: the Rangers do also change up their PP on the fly when one thing doesn't seem to be working. They'll look to setup Zibanejad sometimes and if it's obvious the other team is taking that away you'll see them rotate the players around to try to open up some holes or get Panarin open over there or something.

 

[TopShelfSnipes]

Yeah you can't compare the PP % to other eras but really in THIS era how much better can it be than 30%? And the shitty version of Mika is still one of the better PP players in the league. He's a PPG player while being invisible 5 on 5. Laf is a better 5 on 5 player.

They're at 28%, not 30%. Perhaps semantics, but that's notable because Tampa was at 28% in 2019 with a setup similar to what they'd have vs. a 2019 league average of 19%. Laf would be in the Kucherov spot and Panarin in the Stamkos spot. Fox in the Hedman spot/point, Trocheck in the Point/bumper spot with Kreider netfront. Kreider is the best netfront player in the league and Fox is a better PP QB than Hedman.

I see no reason they couldn't sustain 30% with this kind of setup.

Meanwhile, our second unit has no identity, and putting Mika there gives them an immediate shooting threat if nothing else due to the threat of him bombing away. Even if he misses the net, that will open space for everyone else who's generally pretty reluctant to shoot., and fixes the reluctance of the forwards to shoot (especially Kakko, when he's on that unit). Cuylle netfront is an effective screen. Add Chytil Kakko and Gus, and there's no reason that unit can't contribute some. There are zero shooters on the second unit. Laf and Gus are the most willing to shoot on that unit, and they're on the points.

 

[DanielBrassard]

You seem to get confused easily as nobody is saying those numbers are for the whole year. It was just a fact of what the percentage has been for the 5 games. Try to follow along if you want to get involved.

who cares what the PP% is over the last 5 games.

 

[HockeyBasedNYC]

We all talked about the one thing that was really holding him back - that was his pace of play and skating.

He worked on it, improved it and his game/confidence has opened up.

Whos to say he cant improve his shot as well?

I think the more important / difficult part was improving his skating. Even if he improves his shot 10-20% he and his production will really benefit from that.

 

[duhmetreE]

who cares what the PP% is over the last 5 games.

I don't care much about the % but when the puck goes through Zibs, it usually doesn't end well. He finishes cross seam passes that come from down low but that's been typically it.

I don't think Laffy replaces him or the coaching staff has the desire to make that switch.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

I mean, we've also complained that having all righty shots on the PP is bad and rotating Panarin to Zibanejad's spot and Laf to the other side isn't a wild idea. Panarin doesn't have the velocity of Zibanejad but he's been scoring on a lot of one timers from the left side

but yeah probably not going to happen. ALso don't think the PP is really stale so much...they have gotten chances and currently the luck is kinda against them.

e: the Rangers do also change up their PP on the fly when one thing doesn't seem to be working. They'll look to setup Zibanejad sometimes and if it's obvious the other team is taking that away you'll see them rotate the players around to try to open up some holes or get Panarin open over there or something.

Yeah I don't see Panarin moving out of his spot. That's where he likes to play and where he's at his best, reloading high and coming downhill puck on his stick, feet moving. That's how the PP largely runs, through him doing that.

I remember when he played the other side years ago and he and the PP were so stagnant