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Alexis Lafreniere disappointing season start? PART 2

Nicomo Cosca

Nicomo Cosca

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Aug 13, 2020
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Cincinnati, OH
bleedgreen said:
Based on that shot I think the rumors of this kids demise are greatly exaggerated. Pretty much proves that he has the skills and the issue is he’s started pro hockey at 18 in a weird season that had no camp and expectations that every team would hit the ground running.

Maybe we should let him get to 20 before shipping him off to Europe.
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No he didn’t.
 
Macbanan

Macbanan

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Dec 28, 2013
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Uppsala, Sweden
I think it's so silly to pretend like you shouldn't ever allow yourself to worry about a rookie that's not producing. Yes, we know, Thornton only had a few points in his first season, and Stamkos and others also took some time to get going.

But it's undeniable that some 1OA bust, and for every game a rookie is not producing the chances increase that he belongs in that category. The fact that Lafreniere seems to be able to get going now doesn't mean people were wrong to worry. At the time he had 1 point in his first 15 games he had a higher than average 1OA risk of busting. Now he's producing, that great, that means the chances are far lower. You adjust according to how the season plays out. That said, writing him off was of course always stupid and made no sense.
 
Scandale du Jour

Scandale du Jour

JordanStaal#1Fan
Mar 11, 2002
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Macbanan said:
I think it's so silly to pretend like you shouldn't ever allow yourself to worry about a rookie that's not producing. Yes, we know, Thornton only had a few points in his first season, and Stamkos and others also took some time to get going.

But it's undeniable that some 1OA bust, and for every game a rookie is not producing the chances increase that he belongs in that category. The fact that Lafreniere seems to be able to get going now doesn't mean people were wrong to worry. At the time he had 1 point in his first 15 games he had a higher than average 1OA risk of busting. Now he's producing, that great, that means the chances are far lower. You adjust according to how the season plays out. That said, writing him off was of course always stupid and made no sense.
Click to expand...

People were wrong to worry for several reasons:

- He did not look out of place out there. Did not make bad decisions, was not a liability. Played rather well. You could see he was lacking confidence and was trying to adjust to a new level, but he did not look putrid... unless you were strictly stats watching.

- Lafrenière was always a high floor player. At the very worst, he would have become a great 3rd liner. Is that "bust" territory? For a 1OA sure, it is MIGHTY disappointing, but Lafrenière was always going to be at LEAST a serviceable NHLer. Calling him a bust after he struggled to put up points for a few weeks was... yeah.

- He did not play for 10 months before the season started. That's the most important one. Rangers should have sent him to the Q to start the year and let him go to the WJC. I guarantee that he would not have had to shake the rust as much and would have produced earlier.

So, basically, people jumped to conclusion without considering context at all. Thankfully for Lafrenière, the Rangers management continued to give him the minutes he needed and he is now producing. It was always about getting acclimated to a new level after not playing for 10 months. He was never "awful" or "out of place" and he was playing the right way (disciplined without the puck, not trying stupid junior stuff, good positioning, etc). If you measure "chances of busting" based on production within the first 20 games in a weird year than... yeah.
 
GAGLine

GAGLine

Registered User
Sep 17, 2007
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Macbanan said:
I think it's so silly to pretend like you shouldn't ever allow yourself to worry about a rookie that's not producing. Yes, we know, Thornton only had a few points in his first season, and Stamkos and others also took some time to get going.

But it's undeniable that some 1OA bust, and for every game a rookie is not producing the chances increase that he belongs in that category. The fact that Lafreniere seems to be able to get going now doesn't mean people were wrong to worry. At the time he had 1 point in his first 15 games he had a higher than average 1OA risk of busting. Now he's producing, that great, that means the chances are far lower. You adjust according to how the season plays out. That said, writing him off was of course always stupid and made no sense.
Click to expand...

Part 1 was started 4 games into the season. That's way too early to worry about any player. And part 2 was started by a devils fan. All you need to know about that.
 
J bo Jeans

J bo Jeans

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Aug 7, 2020
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Ottawa
What were people expecting honestly? The last hockey this guy played was what in March? April? Then he doesn't get to play at World J's and is expected to compete with NHL's right out of the gun after not playing competitive hockey for nearly a year. This really isn't comparable to other rookie starts the situation is really different.
 
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surixon

surixon

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Jul 12, 2003
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Winnipeg
No surprise to see that the skill is starting to flash more and the points are starting to come with more frequency. It's a big jump and his situation with COVID was incredibly unusual.
 
canuck2010

canuck2010

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Dec 21, 2010
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The problem with most people evaluating hockey players is that it is always about the points. Hockey isn't baseball and you can't make it so. Players have different natural talents and strengths or weaknesses that they bring to the game. They also have assigned roles based on their abilities to contribute to a line to a team. Over time these roles can change or be reinforced at the discretion of the coach based on the players progress. A young player may not be contributing on the score sheet but it is still possible to recognize his skill, his improved gameplay and the contribution that he is making to the overall team effort. The bottom line with any rookie is that he has taken someone else's job.
 
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canuck2010

canuck2010

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Dec 21, 2010
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Hockey Stick said:
None of the guys in the projected top 10 have put up any stats in the NHL this season... looks like the weakest draft class in quite some time
Click to expand...

Apologies I'm unclear as to what you are saying here. Are you talking about the 2020 draft or the upcoming 2021 version?
 
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