Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière

[bhamill]

the reason why found the switch in the beginning to become what he is is was a huge coaching change. if bednar had been hired a couple of years sooner mack might have approached a ppg avg earlier inhis career.

i don't want to appear to be attacking you in anyway shape or form. we're wired differently. from what laffy highlights that i've seen from qmjhl all the way to the present i don't see an 80+ scorer. what is it exactly that you see in your mind that i and maybe several others here don't?

Oh. I certainly don’t take it personally. No worries.
Sure. With a diff coach Nate may have developed faster. So might have Laf. Especially if Laf also got the minutes and pp time Nate got. Who knows?
I see the same things scouts have seen back to juniors. Including the goal he scored the other night. He’s got high level skill, grit and leadership. I don’t think his ceiling has changed. You never thought he had the ceiling of a ppg back to before he was drafted? I’d say you are an outlier if so.

 

[bhamill]

Somewhere in the realm is very broad and scoring was much lower when MacKinnon was breaking into the league compared to when Lafreniere was breaking in so it's not an apples to apples comparison anyway.

I think the scoring rise is overstated. It’s about 1 goal per game, both teams combined, difference between Nate’s D3 and this year. And that doesn’t break down where that scoring happens. Is it mainly on the PP? Is it on 3x3 OT? You can see how that wouldn’t apply to players who don’t get much of that. Is it concentrated among the top echelon scorers? Like the McKinnons and McDavids are where the increase has mostly taken place just pulling up the average? Just saying scoring is way up isn’t a huge caveat to me.

 

[The New Russian Five]

the reason why found the switch in the beginning to become what he is is was a huge coaching change. if bednar had been hired a couple of years sooner mack might have approached a ppg avg earlier inhis career.

i don't want to appear to be attacking you in anyway shape or form. we're wired differently. from what laffy highlights that i've seen from qmjhl all the way to the present i don't see an 80+ scorer. what is it exactly that you see in your mind that i and maybe several others here don't?

I've only seen highlights from Laf's QMJHL days, but I was never overly impressed by what I saw in them from someone who was as hyped as he was. Maybe it was something you had to see by watching him consistently and seeing all the little things he did. For example, I'm sure Fox doesn't come off as impressive unless you watch on a consistent basis. Was this the case with Laf in his QMJHL days?

 

[LORDE]

That's not .04, it's .4.

It's almost half a point per game difference (1.1 vs. 1.5). It's kind of a huge difference, frankly... almost the difference between Zib and Laf CURRENTLY.

Zibs is a high end player and at THIS POINT I'd be reasonably satisfied if Lafreniere ends up an 80-85 point player like him, but when originally drafted I definitely had reasonable expectations for a 90-100 point winger with relative consistency and relatively early.

This is fair... I was hoping for more also but IF he ever gets to Zbad levels (with the NYR lol) I'll be ecstatic

 

[LORDE]

and I think the point I was trying to make is that Laf will never ever reach those expectations or hopes without the kinds of opportunities that Mackinnon got when he broke out.

Laf won't even be an 80 point player until he gets first unit power play time.

So like...we're talking about how disappointed we are for a player who has not gotten the actual opportunities to put up those kind of numbers, in some ways he's still a real unknown because of it. He'd have to be a legit generational talent to come in and immediately get top EV and PP minutes on this current Rangers team, and he's not that (and as we can see even MacKinnon wasn't/isn't that). Expecting him to earn those minutes with his play/talent alone wasn't reasonable with the guys he'd have to beat out.

So for better or worse we're still left wondering "what exactly do we have" years after his draft because of all that

But the entire point of having Laf & Kakko on entry level deals was that they would produce also... ON TOP OF Bread, Kreider, Zbad, Fox... otherwise we're not winning a Cup.

So while I agree they've not had PP1 etc... if they're gonna be unsalted, saltine crackers all of this is for naught.

MAYBE we'll know what we have once Bread, Kreider et all are gone but by then, what are we?

 

[Levitate]

But the entire point of having Laf & Kakko on entry level deals was that they would produce also... ON TOP OF Bread, Kreider, Zbad, Fox... otherwise we're not winning a Cup.

So while I agree they've not had PP1 etc... if they're gonna be unsalted, saltine crackers all of this is for naught.

MAYBE we'll know what we have once Bread, Kreider et all are gone but by then, what are we?

I mean at this point they are producing. You're not going to get them putting up 80 points in addition to the rest of those guys mentioned without power play time and at least a fair share of EV minutes.

to me some of it is "ok, they're finishing strong, had good years in a lot of ways, hopefully that carries over into the playoffs as well...but then next year they also need to start strong and continue to improve" because there's been a lot of good stretches followed by bad stretches for them rather than kinda finding their groove and elevating their game consistently

 

[ReddestRum]

Comparing Laf's D+3 to Mack's injured D+3 is kind of odd and doesn't really paint Laf in a good light?

In 2015/2016 seasons, Mack had some bad injuries. One of them was a broken leg as well, after a 70 point rookie season. Dude still wasn't himself in D+4, but still managed to eek out 50+ points. D+5, I think he felt better because, you know, 3 points shy of 100.

2 out of his first 3 years were injury laden and Mack still managed 153 points in 218 games with 113 EV. Laf is sitting at 80 EV w/ 10 PPP in 211 games.

One thing that no one seems to consider is that players in the age 20-23 range that are hitting 70+ points right now are still managing to put points on the board at EV even if you took away their PP time. Not only that, but these players are ALWAYS playing against the top lines of their opponents. Our kids are doing well right now, but they are generally matched against 3rd line opponents.

 

[mas0764]

But the entire point of having Laf & Kakko on entry level deals was that they would produce also... ON TOP OF Bread, Kreider, Zbad, Fox... otherwise we're not winning a Cup.

So while I agree they've not had PP1 etc... if they're gonna be unsalted, saltine crackers all of this is for naught.

MAYBE we'll know what we have once Bread, Kreider et all are gone but by then, what are we?

Right. If Laf and Kakko were pacing for 60+ points we are the Bruins on steroids and we would be winning a Cup or Cups.

Instead we are (and have been) in the amorphous middle tier of non favorite contenders, which many try to spin positively to “we have as good a chance as anyone.” Yes, but that means you versus the field is actually pretty terrible odds.

Getting to the conference finals is relatively easy. The Hank Rangers did it 3 times. It’s being better than those final 3-4 great teams that’s the hardest part, and it’s a part we haven’t, to date, shown we can accomplish. We will see.

 

[mas0764]

Also, I understand that without power play time they aren’t gonna score 80 points.

At the same time, they should excel with their opportunities at Even strength.

We are 12th in the league in scoring, so…. There is room for improvement from the kids even in the minutes they do get.

From everyone, really. Maybe we aren’t Edmonton or Boston, but we should be up there with Florida, NJ, Dallas, Buffalo and Seattle, of all teams.

 

[Wattsburgh]

I hear he wants to play for the Penguins DURING the Crosby era. Wants to soak up as much as he can as a former number 1 overall. Interesting to see how that plays out.

 

[ReddestRum]

Getting to the conference finals is relatively easy. The Hank Rangers did it 3 times. It’s being better than those final 3-4 great teams that’s the hardest part, and it’s a part we haven’t, to date, shown we can accomplish. We will see.

Going up 2-0 against Tampa and dropping 4 straight was almost just as crushing to me as making it to the Finals and losing to LA. All things considered, I think the Avs would've swept us in 4 games blindfolded and playing with off-hand sticks.

 

[DanielBrassard]

I think the scoring rise is overstated. It’s about 1 goal per game, both teams combined, difference between Nate’s D3 and this year. And that doesn’t break down where that scoring happens. Is it mainly on the PP? Is it on 3x3 OT? You can see how that wouldn’t apply to players who don’t get much of that. Is it concentrated among the top echelon scorers? Like the McKinnons and McDavids are where the increase has mostly taken place just pulling up the average? Just saying scoring is way up isn’t a huge caveat to me.

How is it overstated? Do you think an almost 20 percent increase in goals is not a substantial amount of offense? That just seems ridiculous to me. And scoring has increased in every game state across the board. Of course scoring being up is an important distinction to make, it's a different game. It's why in baseball advanced stats are scaled to a static number because the profile of the league changes throughout time so comparing the raw production of players is flawed because not everyone plays in a similar environment. That applies to hockey as well.

 

[bhamill]

How is it overstated? Do you think an almost 20 percent increase in goals is not a substantial amount of offense? That just seems ridiculous to me. And scoring has increased in every game state across the board. Of course scoring being up is an important distinction to make, it's a different game. It's why in baseball advanced stats are scaled to a static number because the profile of the league changes throughout time so comparing the raw production of players is flawed because not everyone plays in a similar environment. That applies to hockey as well.

I think it’s overstated because it’s completely vague. As I stated there’s no context. It doesn’t differentiate where the scoring went up. Is it all on the PP? is it concentrated only in the top 5% of scorers and in general everyone else stayed the same or went down? ? Is it an increase in 4th liners contributing? Is it 3x3 OT scoring? Is it a lot of EN goals? Or is it just evenly spread out through the wide spectrum of game situations and player tiers, which seems unlikely. Without context the less than 20% increase in scoring doesn’t give me anything to work with. It may or may not have bearing. if You want me to give it a whole lot of weight you need to supply context.
if you have a source breaking it down I’d definitely give it a look.

 

[bhamill]

Comparing Laf's D+3 to Mack's injured D+3 is kind of odd and doesn't really paint Laf in a good light?

In 2015/2016 seasons, Mack had some bad injuries. One of them was a broken leg as well, after a 70 point rookie season. Dude still wasn't himself in D+4, but still managed to eek out 50+ points. D+5, I think he felt better because, you know, 3 points shy of 100.

2 out of his first 3 years were injury laden and Mack still managed 153 points in 218 games with 113 EV. Laf is sitting at 80 EV w/ 10 PPP in 211 games.

One thing that no one seems to consider is that players in the age 20-23 range that are hitting 70+ points right now are still managing to put points on the board at EV even if you took away their PP time. Not only that, but these players are ALWAYS playing against the top lines of their opponents. Our kids are doing well right now, but they are generally matched against 3rd line opponents.

McKinnon had 63 points as a rookie. In his D+3 he played 72 games. As I said. That doesn’t sound like heavily injured. It looks like his D+2 was more shortened. At 64 games. Still not crazy.
None of this changes what I said. He didn’t hit ppg till his D5. Youre saying there were “reasons.” Fair. There are reasons for Laf’s protracted development arc as well. But some people don’t ever want to acknowledge them.
I still say Laf’s ceiling is not far off of McKinnon. I don’t need you to agree. It’s all good. Time will show us if I’m nuts or not. Hahaha.
(BTW I was only comparing with McKinnon because someone said McKinnon was their expectation when Laf was drafted)

 

[NickyFotiu]

Oh. I certainly don’t take it personally. No worries.
Sure. With a diff coach Nate may have developed faster. So might have Laf. Especially if Laf also got the minutes and pp time Nate got. Who knows?
I see the same things scouts have seen back to juniors. Including the goal he scored the other night. He’s got high level skill, grit and leadership. I don’t think his ceiling has changed. You never thought he had the ceiling of a ppg back to before he was drafted? I’d say you are an outlier if so.

When I first saw clips before Laf was drafted I was not impressed. The talking heads raved about him. On the night he was drafted one said he could score 70 points as a rookie. I figured I must have been wrong based on the raves he was getting. The thing about Nate is his skills jump out at you. His elite skating is right there to see. That is not the case for Laf. In Lafs rookie season I was concerned. I went back to view a highlight video. Now highlight videos are highlights so I understand they have to be taken with a grain of salt. Still I felt a little better after seeing Lafs video. Lafs progress is not about playing minutes nor coaching in my opinion. I think some talking heads were wrong to expect him to make the jump to the NHL so easily. I think like many other players he is the kind of player that will take a while. That doesn't mean he will not get there eventually. It just means it will take time and work. He can become an All Star player but it will not be an overnight change. It will be a progression if he puts in the work. This season he will basically be a 20-20 guy. The next significant step will be to become a 30-30 guy. My guess is that is 2 seasons away so he will be 23. Nothing wrong with that. If I was Drury I would encourage him to spend all summer developing his skating. More specifically his initial burst. I think his hands are already at a strong level.

 

[GAGLine]

But the entire point of having Laf & Kakko on entry level deals was that they would produce also... ON TOP OF Bread, Kreider, Zbad, Fox... otherwise we're not winning a Cup.

So while I agree they've not had PP1 etc... if they're gonna be unsalted, saltine crackers all of this is for naught.

MAYBE we'll know what we have once Bread, Kreider et all are gone but by then, what are we?

While it's really nice to add stud players on ELCs while the rest of the team is good and regularly competing for the cup, it isn't a necessity to win the cup.

Boston is the best team in the league this year. They have 2 players on ELCs, Lauko, who has played 21 NHL games, and Swayman, the backup goalie.

Last year, Colorado won the cup with Byram and Newhook on ELCs. Byram played 2nd pair minutes, but Newhook didn't contribute much. We have our Byram this year in Miller, who is still on his ELC.

When Tampa won in 20-21, which stud ELC players did they have? Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev were all into their 2nd contracts by then.

 

[The New Russian Five]

The irony is that both Laf and Kakko are producing as expected if we hadn't won those respective lotteries and we picked a player respective to how we finished those seasons leading to the draft. Heck, the Rangers were technically a playoff team when they won the Lafreniere lottery.

I guess we can just think of this as nature correcting itself.

 

[LORDE]

While it's really nice to add stud players on ELCs while the rest of the team is good and regularly competing for the cup, it isn't a necessity to win the cup.

Boston is the best team in the league this year. They have 2 players on ELCs, Lauko, who has played 21 NHL games, and Swayman, the backup goalie.

Last year, Colorado won the cup with Byram and Newhook on ELCs. Byram played 2nd pair minutes, but Newhook didn't contribute much. We have our Byram this year in Miller, who is still on his ELC.

When Tampa won in 20-21, which stud ELC players did they have? Cirelli, Cernak and Sergachev were all into their 2nd contracts by then.

Completely understand your point but when it comes to the teams you've mentioned they have bottomed out completely (Bruins aside) and have built with their own generational talent.

The Bs & Tampa have circumvented the cap (Tampa multiple times)

If we're to compete against them we need more than Bread giving pucks away, & teams keying in on Zbad & Kreider.

Now we have gone out and grabbed Tank & Kane... the defense is a yr older & Trocheck stabilized the middle.

On paper I like our team. For sure. But it still needs the kids to be a threat against 3rd pairs consistently and to up their games in the post season where it becomes an even more of a MAN's game.

 

[bleedblue94]

The irony is that both Laf and Kakko are producing as expected if we hadn't won those respective lotteries and we picked a player respective to how we finished those seasons leading to the draft. Heck, the Rangers were technically a playoff team when they won the Lafreniere lottery.

I guess we can just think of this as nature correcting itself.

Can spin the rationalize that however you want, but overall the results have been disappointing, especially for laffy. It's Great that he scores one of these highlight real goals every 40 games, I'd like to see some more actual high-end offense created from a first overall pick. That's not asking a lot for somebody drafted there.

 

[SeanAveryTheGreatOne]

If he and Kakko settle in as .5 PPG players for the rest of their careers, that's perhaps dreadful for #1/#2 overall picks on other teams, but for our history of developing forwards that's quite fantastic.

 

[ReddestRum]

I'll never understand why we as fans talk about other legit busts as the player just straight up not good enough for the NHL, but when it comes to our players we need to develop them like they're mites in order for them to become stars. Professional athletes working on their own game to better themselves doesn't exist, and if a player doesn't pan out, their lack of skill should never be called into question as the organization should have their player development coaches out there on the ice each practice giving individual instructions on how to shoot while helping them also get better by skating around cones between games.

 

[mas0764]

If he and Kakko settle in as .5 PPG players for the rest of their careers, that's perhaps dreadful for #1/#2 overall picks on other teams, but for our history of developing forwards that's quite fantastic.

They will settle in as more than that for sure. The question is how much more.

I'll never understand why we as fans talk about other legit busts as the player just straight up not good enough for the NHL, but when it comes to our players we need to develop them like they're mites in order for them to become stars. Professional athletes working on their own game to better themselves doesn't exist, and if a player doesn't pan out, their lack of skill should never be called into question as the organization should have their player development coaches out there on the ice each practice giving individual instructions on how to shoot while helping them also get better by skating around cones between games.

I talk about bad organizations having negative effects on a player all the time.

 

[Rangers in 7]

I'll never understand why we as fans talk about other legit busts as the player just straight up not good enough for the NHL, but when it comes to our players we need to develop them like they're mites in order for them to become stars. Professional athletes working on their own game to better themselves doesn't exist, and if a player doesn't pan out, their lack of skill should never be called into question as the organization should have their player development coaches out there on the ice each practice giving individual instructions on how to shoot while helping them also get better by skating around cones between games.

Are we still out here saying laf has no skill? Still?

I’ll give you credit, you might not know a skilled hockey player but you keep on spewing this idea that laf sucks when it’s become increasingly obvious that it is not the case

 

[Grifter3511]

I'll never understand why we as fans talk about other legit busts as the player just straight up not good enough for the NHL, but when it comes to our players we need to develop them like they're mites in order for them to become stars. Professional athletes working on their own game to better themselves doesn't exist, and if a player doesn't pan out, their lack of skill should never be called into question as the organization should have their player development coaches out there on the ice each practice giving individual instructions on how to shoot while helping them also get better by skating around cones between games.

I stated this on a main board thread, but going into tonight's game Lafreniere was the 44th ranked LW in the league in terms of overall points. 44th overall puts him in the top half of 2nd line LWs. He also gets less ice time than all but two of the LWs above him and a number of the LWs below him.

Is this ideal for a 1st overall? Absolutely not. But is producing like a 2nd liner with 3rd line minutes a sign of someone with zero talent? Absolutely not.

Edit: as an aside, kakko is 38th overall in regards to RWs, so pretty much identical story.

 

[QJL]

Right. If Laf and Kakko were pacing for 60+ points we are the Bruins on steroids and we would be winning a Cup or Cups.

Instead we are (and have been) in the amorphous middle tier of non favorite contenders, which many try to spin positively to “we have as good a chance as anyone.” Yes, but that means you versus the field is actually pretty terrible odds.

Getting to the conference finals is relatively easy. The Hank Rangers did it 3 times. It’s being better than those final 3-4 great teams that’s the hardest part, and it’s a part we haven’t, to date, shown we can accomplish. We will see.

The kids are all producing at 50 point paces over the past 50 games after a slow first 25 games. We are not even close to the “Bruins on steroids”.