The problem, again, isn’t whether we dislike Laf, it’s the timing. Waiting for him to take a 6 year path to being a top six NHLer doesn’t align with the timeline the team committed itself to when giving Shesterkin the extension they did and deciding to keep Kreider, invest in Trochek, etc.
So Laf becomes a 65 point player in year 6 and but everyone else is now 33-35 year old. At this point it’s a total toss up whether Laf succeeds or not, but as a 1OA pick who has played behind a lot of veterans, there’s still a perception that a fresh start somewhere with a larger role could be what he needs and so he still has some value as a trade asset. And while a 60-70 point player has value for us as well, if he does get there, it isn’t a franchise altering talent we’re going to kick ourselves forever over if we move on. He isn’t going to become a 100 point star. It’s a 50/50 he becomes a legitimate top six player. A 60-70 point top six player ON their ELC while the vets are still productive makes the team a contender. A 60-70 point player 3 years from now just replaces some of the production of the veterans slowing down.
Either we want to win with Zib, Panarin, Kreider, Trochek, Shesty - in which case the luxury of patience isn’t really there for Laf, because we need someone who is contributing more NOW - or we want to win with Laf, Kakko, etc. 3-5 years from now. Considering Laf and Kakko are beyond unlikely to be as good as or have the same impact as Zib and Bread, that’s not a plan I would invest too heavily in. But if that’s the path, we should probably start talking to all of the vet’s agents about waiving their NMCs.
But since the kids in the system are very unlikely to adequately replace the contributions of the veterans here currently, and Shesty is in his prime on a contract we can afford, we should probably be going for it now, over the next 2-3 years. In that case, patience just doesn’t really fit the team’s structure.
It’s not about liking the kid or disliking the kid or not realizing he COULD break out. It’s about being realistic about where we are. We have a core that is good but needs more contribution and help CURRENTLY to get over the hump and contend. We’re relatively close. It would be sort of silly not to try to get there. Whether you agree or disagree that Laf may break out - even that it would really suck if he became a 75 point player somewhere else after we gave up on him - the question is:
Would we rather waste the prime of Zib, Kreider, Shesty and the remainder of Bread’s 12M contract but have a 60% chance of having a 70 point winger in 3 years?
OR
Go for it while Zib, Kreider and Shesty are prime, Bread hasn’t fallen off a cliff and Fox is playing like a Norris candidate at the expense of POSSIBLY having a 70 point winger in 3 years?
I mean, on the defending Laf side, does anyone actually think this kid has 90-100 point potential still? We’re going to trade him and he’s going to go from what he is now to Marner or Rantanen? He’s more likely to become Bryan Rust (look at his numbers before knee jerk responses, k thx). Is it really SO egregious to let a potential Bryan Rust go in order to try and go for a Cup?