Player Discussion Alexis Lafrenière: Part III

[duhmetreE]

I'm probably in the minority, but I've liked his game.

Obviously not a finished product but I see positive things. Starting to see what we saw with Kakko last year.

The team as a whole is really struggling 5v5. I do not know what people expect. No one is going to scoring areas... so there's no scoring.

I also still don't like him on the left wall... he really becomes predictable and one dimensional imo

 

[Edge]

I'm probably in the minority, but I've liked his game.

Obviously not a finished product but I see positive things. Starting to see what we saw with Kakko last year.

The team as a whole is really struggling 5v5. I do not know what people expect. No one is going to scoring areas... so there's no scoring.

I also still don't like him on the left wall... he really becomes predictable and one dimensional imo

There are things he needs to work on for sure. But I also kind of feel like his situation isn't all that different than Kakko's right now.

The team, and even the lines, aren't really built around them. As a result, their "success" or at least what people view as success (points) really hinges on the situations they find themselves in and their usage.

When Kakko is inserted onto the powerplay, voila he gets points. Shocking, I know.

But right now, I see a biproduct of usage and team makeup more than I see warning signs or overwhelming concerns.

If anything, I'm honestly less concerned about the play of Kakko and Laf so much as how we navigate the transition to them.

 

[tomobson]

this. right now the only center that can work for him is strome, and given he can't play on the right thats off the table right now. i do hope if panarin misses time they keep him with strome, and kakko is who should be paired with him on the opposite wing - hes wasted with mika - he and laf play very complimentary games. strome isn't my favorite but he's the only c that plays a fundamental, intelligent game moving the puck and can be effective moving the puck in the o zone. mika is all over the place..defensive zone is chaos and no possession in the o zone. chytil is just out to lunch 85% of the time and also erratic. sadly the second best option right now is goodrow as far as centers go. not a skill guy but he can read the play, move the puck competently, and is useful on the forecheck.

Laf the elite grinder and Strome being his best option? I guess on a team with centers like we have that Strome is the best choice but he's not the center that Laf or Kakko need. Look at what Mika is doing when Kakko has ozone possession. He's standing around...this team needs a real center in the top two for Laf and Kakko to breakout.

 

[IronBloodedLion]

I thought Laf played well with more time last night. Very impressed with him and Kakko responded last night when Panarin went down.

If he buried that pass from Kakko last night I think we all would’ve exploded.

 

[romba]

This is seriously nitpicking, he made a good shot the goalie just saved it.

Yes, I'm going nitpick on our first overall who's under producing. The difference between a 1st liner and 3rd liner are these little things that make a big difference. With time and experience he might not hesitate but it's fair to question why he did on that play.

If he were 10 feet farther out you can chill with the puck and glide in with it. Strome does that, and sometimes the goalie makes a spectacular save after getting set, sometimes it goes in. If there were a passing option I could also see him hanging on to the puck. When you're that in tight with no teamates near by there's really no reason to hold on to the puck. You limit the holes to score in then. It's not a goal scorers move. He doesn't have the burners and has had trouble creating for himself so I just think he's got to take advantage when he can and maximize his chance to score. He's got a great wrister, just let it rip from the bottom of the circle instead of 3 feet out with no net visible anymore.

 

[romba]

There are things he needs to work on for sure. But I also kind of feel like his situation isn't all that different than Kakko's right now.

The team, and even the lines, aren't really built around them. As a result, their "success" or at least what people view as success (points) really hinges on the situations they find themselves in and their usage.

When Kakko is inserted onto the powerplay, voila he gets points. Shocking, I know.

But right now, I see a biproduct of usage and team makeup more than I see warning signs or overwhelming concerns.

If anything, I'm honestly less concerned about the play of Kakko and Laf so much as how we navigate the transition to them.

I think a stronger PP2 would inspire confidence in the Coach using them more and getting our young guys more confidence. The biggest issue with PP2 is that even when PP1 stagnates and GG gives PP2 1+ minutes, they often get nothing going.

Chytil really is a net negative on PP2 and causes the play to slow down thinking too much and often puts his teamates in tough spots along the boards which is unnecessary on the PP. He also misses open guys for the safe play which is ok 5 on 5 but not great on the PP. His weak faceoff skills don't help with getting off to a good start either. I thought Trouba hasn't been a great option either but he's actually improved as the season has gone on in finding teamates with quick sharp passes instead of just launching bombs every opportunity he gets.

Switching Strome for KK and taking Chytil off PP2 would help PP2 while not hurting PP1 too much, but then who do we replace Chytil with? I'd consider giving Rooney another shot for a few games and see how he fares, probably wouldn't be much worse than Chytil, but Rooney has looked iffy when given a chance on the PP so far. Same for Goodrow, just not his game really despite Sam and Joe loving to talk about inserting him anywhere in the lineup.

 

[2014nyr]

Laf the elite grinder and Strome being his best option? I guess on a team with centers like we have that Strome is the best choice but he's not the center that Laf or Kakko need. Look at what Mika is doing when Kakko has ozone possession. He's standing around...this team needs a real center in the top two for Laf and Kakko to breakout.

idno i don't consider him an elite grinder...if you watch him at the world juniors you see his game. he was elite running the pp and most of his offense created 5 on 5 was receiving a puck in the zone and beating his guy to get to open ice for a shot/pass look or free his hands / open the lane for a pass he wanted. and yea he was a bully on the forecheck physically at times, i consider that a positive. if he gets some confidence built up hopefully he'll start picking corners too, his shot is nasty. he wasn't going up and down the ice walking the entire team. but yea strome isnt ideal, hes just the best fit we have. honestly not sure how we resolve the center issue - certainly no answers internally, if we resign strome and we're stuck with him/mika top 2 for years we're screwed. the one guy i'd be checking in on is hayton in ari...he was lafs wjc center, big kid, know things were a bit bumpy w/ him / ari...not sure if thats changed. if not would love to see if something can be done around krav or chytil. think thats about as good as we'd be able to do in terms of fit, potential, and cap hit. maybe monahan if still on market? cost might be absurd though. would love to know what it woulda taken to get sam bennett, because i imagine its something we'd happily pay today.

 

[huerter]

He needs to fix the way he holds his stick and ditch that bunny hop he does to start moving. Then he'll have a chance.

 

[Fitzy]

If Panarin misses a few games, this will be a pretty big opportunity for the kid to show us that some of his struggles have been related to his role.

I hope he does well- if he and Kakko can become 55-65 point players from the middle 6 over the next couple seasons it will go a long way to balance our secondary scoring.

 

[Edge]

Also, for all the gnashing of teeth, Lafreniere has 18 goals in his first 85 career NHL games.

And that's without a single powerplay goal or even a point.

As a point of reference, because someone brought him up earlier, Taylor Hall had 49 goals in his first 126 NHL games. However, 21 of those goals were scored on the powerplay. So he scored 28 ES goals in his first 126 NHL games.

So if we want to take usage into account, Lafreniere scored an ES goal roughly every 4.7 games and Hall scored an ES goal every 4.5 games. And BTW, Lafreniere is also playing more than 4.5 minutes less per game. So if we go with ES/60, Lafreniere more than holds his own against Hall.

And that doesn't take into account usage, linemates, or whether the Rangers current roster and powerplay unit would result in greater production if Lafreniere was taking shifts, or other factors.

Look, I learned a long time ago it is very difficult to talk someone down off the ledge once they're dealing with anxiety or worry. But the numbers and comparisons we're throwing out there really aren't as far off as we think. (Just like Uncle Larry pointed out the difference in numbers between Hughes and Kakko is much closer than people realize).

Just giving folks something to chew on other than their nails.

 

[Thirty One]

If Panarin misses a few games, this will be a pretty big opportunity for the kid to show us that some of his struggles have been related to his role.

I hope he does well- if he and Kakko can become 55-65 point players from the middle 6 over the next couple seasons it will go a long way to balance our secondary scoring.

Reunite the Laf-Strome-Kakko line. Strome is obviously the guy who gets guys going.

 

[bbny]

Also, for all the gnashing of teeth, Lafreniere has 18 goals in his first 85 career NHL games.

And that's without a single powerplay goal or even a point.

As a point of reference, because someone brought him up earlier, Taylor Hall had 49 goals in his first 126 NHL games. However, 21 of those goals were scored on the powerplay. So he scored 28 ES goals in his first 126 NHL games.

So if we want to take usage into account, Lafreniere scored an ES goal roughly every 4.7 games and Hall scored an ES goal every 4.5 games. And BTW, Lafreniere is also playing more than 4.5 minutes less per game. So if we go with ES/60, Lafreniere more than holds his own against Hall.

And that doesn't take into account usage, linemates, or whether the Rangers current roster and powerplay unit would result in greater production if Lafreniere was taking shifts, or other factors.

Look, I learned a long time ago it is very difficult to talk someone down off the ledge once they're dealing with anxiety or worry. But the numbers and comparisons we're throwing out there really aren't as far off as we think. (Just like Uncle Larry pointed out the difference in numbers between Hughes and Kakko is much closer than people realize).

Just giving folks something to chew on other than their nails.

Great point. Probably applies to a young guy like Chytil as well. Primarily ES usage, low TOI, etc.

 

[gump116]

Reunite the Laf-Strome-Kakko line. Strome is obviously the guy who gets guys going.

I'm probably in the minority, but I've liked his game.

Obviously not a finished product but I see positive things. Starting to see what we saw with Kakko last year.

The team as a whole is really struggling 5v5. I do not know what people expect. No one is going to scoring areas... so there's no scoring.

I also still don't like him on the left wall... he really becomes predictable and one dimensional imo

Same. Laf is a high IQ/skilled/potentially physical winger. When he has the rare opportunity to play with other high IQ players like Panarin or Fox, and to a lesser extent Strome or Zibanejad, he looks a lot more comfortable. Where he struggles a bit is foot speed and keeping up with the play, and would look a lot better playing with Zibanejad and Kakko for example rather than Chytl and Gauthier

 

[SA16]

Again, we're trying to rationalize Lafreniere's offense by making poor comparisons to other players. He has 17 5v5 goals. He is shooting 18.6%.

In 19-20 8 forwards (500+ mins) shot 18% or higher. Here are their stats in 18-19 and 19-20:

Player	18-19	19-20
Andre Burakovsky	21.62	17.57
Nick Bonino	19.75	12.5
Elias Pettersson	19.35	15.63
Dominik Kubalik	19.33	9.35
Noel Acciari	19.19	5.56
Brad Marchand	18.92	18.18
Scott Laughton	18.75	9.59
Alex Killorn	18.39	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The group dropped from an average of 19.4 to 12.2%. It's not sustainable. You always get the talk in these spots about how a guy has a great shot, gets to the right spots, finishes his chance etc...that's part of the variance. Maybe he is a guy who can maintain an elite sh%. Maybe he isn't. You can not know that conclusively either way from his sample of 91 5v5 shots.

If you want to compare his 5v5 raw point/goal totals to other early picks and show how it's similar that's fine but if you're then making the conclusion that his 5v5 scoring is just as good you are misinterpreting the data.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Yes, I'm going nitpick on our first overall who's under producing. The difference between a 1st liner and 3rd liner are these little things that make a big difference. With time and experience he might not hesitate but it's fair to question why he did on that play.

If he were 10 feet farther out you can chill with the puck and glide in with it. Strome does that, and sometimes the goalie makes a spectacular save after getting set, sometimes it goes in. If there were a passing option I could also see him hanging on to the puck. When you're that in tight with no teamates near by there's really no reason to hold on to the puck. You limit the holes to score in then. It's not a goal scorers move. He doesn't have the burners and has had trouble creating for himself so I just think he's got to take advantage when he can and maximize his chance to score. He's got a great wrister, just let it rip from the bottom of the circle instead of 3 feet out with no net visible anymore.

Step off the ledge he'll be fine

 

[DanielBrassard]

Again, we're trying to rationalize Lafreniere's offense by making poor comparisons to other players. He has 17 5v5 goals. He is shooting 18.6%.

In 19-20 8 forwards (500+ mins) shot 18% or higher. Here are their stats in 18-19 and 19-20:

Player	18-19	19-20
Andre Burakovsky	21.62	17.57
Nick Bonino	19.75	12.5
Elias Pettersson	19.35	15.63
Dominik Kubalik	19.33	9.35
Noel Acciari	19.19	5.56
Brad Marchand	18.92	18.18
Scott Laughton	18.75	9.59
Alex Killorn	18.39	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The group dropped from an average of 19.4 to 12.2%. It's not sustainable. You always get the talk in these spots about how a guy has a great shot, gets to the right spots, finishes his chance etc...that's part of the variance. Maybe he is a guy who can maintain an elite sh%. Maybe he isn't. You can not know that conclusively either way from his sample of 91 5v5 shots.

If you want to compare his 5v5 raw point/goal totals to other early picks and show how it's similar that's fine but if you're then making the conclusion that his 5v5 scoring is just as good you are misinterpreting the data.

The analysis completely disregards what was supposed to be his biggest strength as well, which is his playmaking ability. He has 11 career assists in those 85 games. Noted goon Ryan Reaves has more than half of that this season alone in 1/3 of the games. I know no one wants to believe the #1 overall pick might be disappointing, I certainly don't. Fact is, he has been.

 

[Edge]

Again, we're trying to rationalize Lafreniere's offense by making poor comparisons to other players. He has 17 5v5 goals. He is shooting 18.6%.

In 19-20 8 forwards (500+ mins) shot 18% or higher. Here are their stats in 18-19 and 19-20:

Player	18-19	19-20
Andre Burakovsky	21.62	17.57
Nick Bonino	19.75	12.5
Elias Pettersson	19.35	15.63
Dominik Kubalik	19.33	9.35
Noel Acciari	19.19	5.56
Brad Marchand	18.92	18.18
Scott Laughton	18.75	9.59
Alex Killorn	18.39	10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The group dropped from an average of 19.4 to 12.2%. It's not sustainable. You always get the talk in these spots about how a guy has a great shot, gets to the right spots, finishes his chance etc...that's part of the variance. Maybe he is a guy who can maintain an elite sh%. Maybe he isn't. You can not know that conclusively either way from his sample of 91 5v5 shots.

If you want to compare his 5v5 raw point/goal totals to other early picks and show how it's similar that's fine but if you're then making the conclusion that his 5v5 scoring is just as good you are misinterpreting the data.

The challenge is also that raw data is tricky to present and doesn't take into account a number of factors. So let's even say the shooting percentage comes down, when you switch from a third line role to a first line you're also making a significant change to usage. There's everything from roles and linemates, to icetime to what the coach is emphasizing.

But let's even focus on shooting percent for a second. Lafreniere's career shooting percent is 17.1%, including 15.8% this season. That's roughly 3.4% higher than Hall at the same stage, or about 2.8% in their second season. But we'd also have to factor in that Laf has taken somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3 the number of shots that Hall took and also playing 25% less.

How does that balance if we change some of the circumstances? That's really hard to say.

So yes, data can very much be used however one intends.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Also, for all the gnashing of teeth, Lafreniere has 18 goals in his first 85 career NHL games.

And that's without a single powerplay goal or even a point.

As a point of reference, because someone brought him up earlier, Taylor Hall had 49 goals in his first 126 NHL games. However, 21 of those goals were scored on the powerplay. So he scored 28 ES goals in his first 126 NHL games.

So if we want to take usage into account, Lafreniere scored an ES goal roughly every 4.7 games and Hall scored an ES goal every 4.5 games. And BTW, Lafreniere is also playing more than 4.5 minutes less per game. So if we go with ES/60, Lafreniere more than holds his own against Hall.

And that doesn't take into account usage, linemates, or whether the Rangers current roster and powerplay unit would result in greater production if Lafreniere was taking shifts, or other factors.

Look, I learned a long time ago it is very difficult to talk someone down off the ledge once they're dealing with anxiety or worry. But the numbers and comparisons we're throwing out there really aren't as far off as we think. (Just like Uncle Larry pointed out the difference in numbers between Hughes and Kakko is much closer than people realize).

Just giving folks something to chew on other than their nails.

Taylor Hall was playing in a lower scoring era, and was generating offense at a much higher rate. The fact that Lafreniere doesn't even have a point on the PP, that's pretty freaking sad. He's certainly had more than enough time on the PP to score a damn point.

 

[EdJovanovski]

Same. Laf is a high IQ/skilled/potentially physical winger. When he has the rare opportunity to play with other high IQ players like Panarin or Fox, and to a lesser extent Strome or Zibanejad, he looks a lot more comfortable. Where he struggles a bit is foot speed and keeping up with the play, and would look a lot better playing with Zibanejad and Kakko for example rather than Chytl and Gauthier

High IQ/skilled/potentially physical player?

I’d say he’s a physical player who’s potentially high IQ/skilled lol

 

[Edge]

Taylor Hall was playing in a lower scoring era, and was generating offense at a much higher rate. The fact that Lafreniere doesn't even have a point on the PP, that's pretty freaking sad. He's certainly had more than enough time on the PP to score a damn point.

Is anyone outside of the top powerplay really getting a ton of time or production? Because our approach is pretty clearly to stack the first unit.

Again, I basically accept the fact that some people aren't going to budge on this topic. Not much else to say.

 

[DanielBrassard]

Is anyone outside of the top powerplay really getting a ton of time or production? Because our approach is pretty clearly to stack the first unit.

Again, I basically accept the fact that some people aren't going to budge on this topic. Not much else to say.

No they aren't but that's because they don't deserve to. He's had 106 minutes there in his career and has zero points. you brought up his lack of PP production as what seemed to be a way to rationalize his lack of production by saying that he has 18 goals in 85 games and he hasn't even scored on the PP.

To me that is not something to hang your hat on, that if only he had more PP time he'd somehow look way better point wise than he has so far. It's just another disappointing result that Lafreniere hasn't even been able to produce a single point in 106 minutes of PP time in his career. His lack of production might be partially caused by lack of opportunity, but if it is it's a tiny reason at best.

 

[SA16]

The challenge is also that raw data is tricky to present and doesn't take into account a number of factors. So let's even say the shooting percentage comes down, when you switch from a third line role to a first line you're also making a significant change to usage. There's everything from roles and linemates, to icetime to what the coach is emphasizing.

But let's even focus on shooting percent for a second. Lafreniere's career shooting percent is 17.1%, including 15.8% this season. That's roughly 3.4% higher than Hall at the same stage, or about 2.8% in their second season. But we'd also have to factor in that Laf has taken somewhere in the neighborhood of 1/3 the number of shots that Hall took and also playing 25% less.

How does that balance if we change some of the circumstances? That's really hard to say.

So yes, data can very much be used however one intends.

Yes he has taken 1/3 the number of Shots than Hall and has a higher sh%. That makes his stats far more prone to small sample fluctuations.

Connor leads the league with 93 5v5 shots this year. 20 forwards with 250+ mins (25 mins chosen because that is roughly 10 mins/game) are shooting 18% or higher.

In the last full season (18-19) 3 forwards with 800+ mins (again, about 10 mins/game for the season) did that.

The fact that is offensive numbers are largely coming from his sh% is a detriment not something to be happy about.

 

[Washed Up 29YearOld]

I have an interest in this prospect so reading this board in peace,

my biggest thing with Laf is that he's a very cerebral, high IQ player.

That doesn't always translate immediately.

It's an intangible thing that can be measured by a player's positioning and anticipation on the ice.

From watching him, it seems like he knows the game and thinks it well, but his overall skills are too raw to implement his IQ like I posted here before.

For example, he may have amazing IQ and know to be in position for a chance, but if his skating hinders him, he's not going to be able to implement his IQ to be in the right position.

That's where I am with Laf. I think his biggest problems are skating and confidence. If he can just improve his skating, you'd be able to see why he's such a smart player.

I had a similar issue when I played my 1st year, (lower level) I knew the game but my overall skills were unpolished so to the casual observer it appeared I sucked. I was slow.

Once I improved my unpolished skills I became a stud and can't help but think this is what's holding back Laf. See if he can improve his skating before shipping him away. He seems to know the game but is a step behind the play.

Laf also has a nose for the net and an NHL shot. Be patient with him. He won't be a 100 point player, but wouldn't be surprised at all if he ends up near PPG. Good luck NYS brothers.

 

[McRanger92]

There are things he needs to work on for sure. But I also kind of feel like his situation isn't all that different than Kakko's right now.

The team, and even the lines, aren't really built around them. As a result, their "success" or at least what people view as success (points) really hinges on the situations they find themselves in and their usage.

When Kakko is inserted onto the powerplay, voila he gets points. Shocking, I know.

But right now, I see a biproduct of usage and team makeup more than I see warning signs or overwhelming concerns.

If anything, I'm honestly less concerned about the play of Kakko and Laf so much as how we navigate the transition to them.

I agree in theory but there needs to be way more consistency before the team should start thinking about transition to them as center pieces. Long way to go

 

[Pawnee Rangers]

I think his problem is simple, he needs to play with more conviction. Make harder/quicker passes and be more confident in his decisions. You get glimpses of it every now and again, he just needs to do it more consistently. He's gotta find his swagger.