Alex Ovechkin - 500 Goals

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Voight

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I'm not saying year-in, year-out- moreso an average- but why is that unreasonable? Selanne averaged 26.5 between the ages of 30 and 40, and that's including time missed with injuries and that sort of thing. Are we assuming Ovechkin can't improve on that a touch- either through front-loading with 50 goals years rather 40 goal years, as Selanne had, or by not tailing off as hard near the end? We're talking a generational scorer here.

Yea, if Selanee can do it (or come close to it) then there is really no reason Ovechkin cant. Hes easily the better player and has a wicked shot.
 
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seventieslord

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so what if we take the most goals anyone has ever scored at 31, 32, 33, 34... all the way to 40, and add them up with Ovechkin's expected goals at the end of this season? just curious, what would he end up with?

Except that whoever designed it forgot how much easier it is to score on the power play

Can you expand on this?
 
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Mulletman

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so what if we take the most goals anyone has ever scored at 31, 32, 33, 34... all the way to 40, and add them up with Ovechkin's expected goals at the end of this season? just curious, what would he end up with?



Can you expand on this?

Well I don't know if it's the most, but just looking quickly Esposito had 51 at 31, 68 at 32 and 61 at 33. Jagr had 54 the year he turned 34. Bucyk had 51 when he was 35 and Selanne had 48 at 36. So that would be a crazy amount of goals for Ovechkin over the next 6 seasons...
 

billcook

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Since 1996-97 (in 'Dead puck era')

Age 31: Joe Sakic 54, Mario Lemieux 50, Alexander Mogilny 43
Age 32: Peter Bondra 45, Brett Hull 42, Luc Robitaille 39
Age 33: Jaromir Jagr 54, Daniel Alfredsson 43, Jarome Iginla 43
Age 34: Luc Robitaille 37, Alexei Kovalev 35, Chris Kunitz 35
Age 35: Daniel Alfredsson 40, Teemu Selanne 40, Mario Lemieux 35 (43 GP)
Age 36: Teemu Selanne 48, Brett Hull 39, Mark Messier 36
Age 37: Brendan Shanahan 40, Joe Sakic 36, Mike Gartner 32
Age 38: Brett Hull 37, Martin St. Louis 30, Brendan Shanahan 29 (67 GP)
Age 39: Daniel Alfredsson 27, Teemu Selanne 27 (54 GP), Joe Nieuwendyk 26 (65 GP)
Age 40: Teemu Selanne 31 (73 GP), Mark Messier 24, Mark Recchi 23
Age 41: Teemu Selanne 26, Jaromir Jagr 24, Daniel Alfredsson 18 (68 GP)
Age 42: Mark Messier 18, Jaromir Jagr 17, Mark Recchi 14



So, IF Ovechkin finishes this seasons with 50 goals AND averages 40 goals up to 35 age for the next 4 seasons, THEN he would need to average 30 goals up to his 42 age to beat Gretzky or to average 17 goals up to his 42 age to beat Howe.
 
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The Panther

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Nice list, above. We should also add Mark Messier at age 35 (1995-96). He scored 47 goals in 74 games. Was definitely going to hit 50 but for a late-season injury.
 

BraveCanadian

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Since 1996-97 (in 'Dead puck era')

Age 31: Joe Sakic 54, Mario Lemieux 50, Alexander Mogilny 43
Age 32: Peter Bondra 45, Brett Hull 42, Luc Robitaille 39
Age 33: Jaromir Jagr 54, Daniel Alfredsson 43, Jarome Iginla 43
Age 34: Luc Robitaille 37, Alexei Kovalev 35, Chris Kunitz 35
Age 35: Daniel Alfredsson 40, Teemu Selanne 40, Mario Lemieux 35 (43 GP)
Age 36: Teemu Selanne 48, Brett Hull 39, Mark Messier 36
Age 37: Brendan Shanahan 40, Joe Sakic 36, Mike Gartner 32
Age 38: Brett Hull 37, Martin St. Louis 30, Brendan Shanahan 29 (67 GP)
Age 39: Daniel Alfredsson 27, Teemu Selanne 27 (54 GP), Joe Nieuwendyk 26 (65 GP)
Age 40: Teemu Selanne 31 (73 GP), Mark Messier 24, Mark Recchi 23
Age 41: Teemu Selanne 26, Jaromir Jagr 24, Daniel Alfredsson 18 (68 GP)
Age 42: Mark Messier 18, Jaromir Jagr 17, Mark Recchi 14



So, IF Ovechkin finishes this seasons with 50 goals AND averages 40 goals up to 35 age for the next 4 seasons, THEN he would need to average 30 goals up to his 42 age to beat Gretzky or to average 17 goals up to his 42 age to beat Howe.

Brett Hull sure aged a lot better as a goal scorer than people tend to give him credit for (due to everyone's numbers coming down in the dead puck era).
 
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Moose Head

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I've always vouched for Bobby Hull and Bossy as the greatest goalscorers I've seen, but damn, AO getting to 500 this fast in this era is pretty damn impressive. I may have to rethink my stance.
 
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feffan

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What a player! A thrill to watch. Different from when you first started watching hockey, the older you get you really appreciate seeing the generational players at work. Or just special kind of players, like Patrik Kane and Erik Karlsson of this generation. At younger age I took them more for granted. But the years you´ve seen none special player at work makes you appreciate the special ones more.

It´s hard to predict how Ovechkins goalscoring will take affect of his aging. He is one of a kind and is gonna write his own storyline. As always. I was one of the guys in 2005-07 saying that Ovechkins style would make him have an Lindros kind of career and that Crosbys playing style and hockey-IQ would make him have an long healthy career. He proved me and many others wrong there.
Since then Ovechkin, outside 10/11-11/12, has continued to surprise me. And even if he ain´t the human highligt reel like in his early 20´s, he still scores 50+ goal seasons. Even in what this season has long stretches been seen as underwelming from him, he is at an 50+ goal pace. And different from his earlier goals, most aren´t "age dependent". He has learned to score 50+ goals without train wrecking threw everybody. Making better odds for him staying an elite goal scorer. I really hope he stays in the leauge beyond his 40 year birthday. His love of the game and body screams Jagr-aging to me. And to me all other wingers are passable on an all time list. Howe, Richard, Jagr, Lafleur and Hull Sr being the only ones with arguments to be ahead as of now. Some of them may be passed.

Howe is in his reach, goal scoring wise. And if he has passed Howe in goal scoring, I wouldn´t be surprised to be surprised again, so to say. The stars sure would have to align, but Shanahan scored 256 goals counting his seasons after Ovechkin is threw with this one. Brett Hull 299. To me Ovechkin is the superior goal scorer than both. Even if Hull is one of few with an maybe better trigger from the circel, Ovechkin has an more variation of shots from there and other places.
And for that mather Bobby Hull scored 439 proffessional goals after his 30 age season. Howe 314 goals between 31-40. Those are all time greats agers of course. And different eras of course. But looking at Hull Jr and Shanahan, I see no reason Ovechkin passing 800 goals in 7-8 seasons if healthy and not wanting to go home and play in KHL. And if he reaches 800 around 37-39, wich surely is doable, I would bet he goes for the record.

An very optimistic post of course. But then we are seeing a player that could be argued the greatest goal scorer ever in the midst of an extraordinary healthy career.
 
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Hawksfan2828

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No he isnt, but you have to realize there is a reason he is a professional athlete and everyone here isnt, his body can take punishment and stay at a physical peak for a long time.

Gordie Howe played regularly until he was 51, Chelios 48 and Jagr now at 43, almost 44. There is no reason Ovechkin cant, especially when you consider how rough the first two played.

None of the players you mentioned played the same game they did when they were in their prime - they adapted their game to suit their bodies...

There in not one player in NHL history that was just as dominate at 28 than they were at 38...

The players that were still effective in their late 30's or early 40's were great because the adjusted their game, they used their knowledge, wisdom and brains more than they used their body like the did when they were kids...
 

Hawksfan2828

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Richards is, by almost all accounts, a drug/alcohol related breakdown.

I don't think it's impossible that Ovechkin breaks down soon-ish but then predicting those kinds of things never works out. Like, maybe he takes some weird hit and busts his knee, or has chronic back problems that haven't been discovered yet, like lots of players do... Or maybe he doesn't, like lots of players don't. Saying he plays a rough style isn't really great evidence, since he's been remarkably healthy for his career and I don't think he's taking that much more physical punishment than other top players.

I don't think he is taking anymore physical punishment from other players, I think he's an intense player that puts a lot of punishment on his body just by the way he plays...

It should be a consensus around here that 40-year-old Ovechkin wont be scoring att the same rate at 30-year-old Ovechkin..
 

seventieslord

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For example, Wayne Gretzky had 170 "adjusted points" in 1985-86 while Mario Lemieux had 165 "adjusted points" in 1988-89. Those stats don't take into account that Pittsburgh in 88-89 had 205 more power plays than Edmonton in 85-86.

that is outside the scope of adjusted points.

Gretzky in 86 and Lemieux in 89 had about the same number of "wins" worth of poings, in terms of how many goals it took to win a hockey game those seasons. The breakdown of PP to ES is a separate matter entirely, and can be broken down into adjusted figures as well.

Without doing so, it should be clear that 1986 Gretzky was clearly a better ES performer and Lemieux a better PP performer, which is pretty consistent with what we already know anyway...
 

Voight

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None of the players you mentioned played the same game they did when they were in their prime - they adapted their game to suit their bodies...

There in not one player in NHL history that was just as dominate at 28 than they were at 38...

The players that were still effective in their late 30's or early 40's were great because the adjusted their game, they used their knowledge, wisdom and brains more than they used their body like the did when they were kids...

I didnt say he'd be just as dominate. Just its foolish to say he will decline like Richards did and be a shmuck by 35. he will play well into his late 30s.
 
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Hawksfan2828

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I didnt say he'd be just as dominate. Just its foolish to say he will decline like Richards did and be a shmuck by 35. he will play well into his late 30s.

I agree, like I said, perhaps I was being just too extreme with the Richards comment but at the same time some players do go down hill extremely fast and that isn't something that can just be automatically excluded in this discussion...

The issue I have with his future is that he plays a tough, rough power forward game, and the guy isn't Superman...

Look I'm just trying to be realistic, not optimistic....

1,000 goals is absolutely out of the question.... 750, now I can be optimistic about that.
 
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Big Phil

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But by that same token, we're already firmly into the World of Tomorrow when it comes to sports medicine and training. It's going to be a rough next decade to be anywhere in the NHL's record books, because the odds are we'll see a lot of those names erased as some truly freakish careers start to manifest themselves. If you thought Ciccarelli, Gartner et al were compilers before, wait until guys are averaging 20 goals a year until the age of 45!

Even if he "only" potted 30 a year until 40, Ovechkin could reach 800 goals without breaking a sweat. That leaves 100 goals over the following 5 years, should he decide Gretzky's mark is a record worth pursuing- and he strikes me as the type. Even if he's on his last legs, a 20-20-40 Ovechkin is still an NHL player.

Maybe he gets to 1000, maybe he doesn't... but I think 894 is within reach. Scary, really.

The guys that are "averaging" 25 goals a year at 45 won't happen. Jaromir Jagr at 43 is the oldest player in the NHL right now and we can all agree he is a freak of nature. So was Chelios. So was Howe. Modern medicine will improve but we are still seeing one theme in the NHL, the dominant players are 25 years old. Maybe 30 at best. Do you realize how hard it will be to compete with a 25 year old in his prime when you are 45? Look at Lemieux and Yzerman just at 40. They were "done". Lemieux may have had injuries as a theme in his career but Yzerman didn't until the end.

Bure retired when he was 31 or so. This was just in 2003.

Even someone like Marcel Dionne who was never overly physical and didn't have injuries in his career was out of his element by the time he went past his mid 30s. Let's just take a look at the current NHL right now. The top 10 scorers are this old:

Kane (26), Seguin (23), Benn (26), Karlsson (25), Tarasenko (24), Gaudreau (22), Pavelski (31), Hall (24), Backstrom (27), Wheeler (29).

Even the likes of Malkin and Henrik Sedin aren't up there anymore, ditto with Ovechkin. Malkin is 29, has had "off" years but certainly not injury troubles as a theme. Modern medicine can only do so much and at the end of the day you are playing against a bunch of 25 year olds.

Here are the goal scoring leaders as of now:

Ovechkin (30), Kane (26), Benn (26), Seguin (23), Tarasenko (24), Pavelski (31), Duchene (25), Toffoli (23), Hoffman (26), Stamkos (25).

The best goal scorers in the NHL are basically 25 and under for the most part. 30 years old historically has been the time your goal scoring especially starts to dwindle. Phil Esposito probably "ages" better than any other goal scorer and even he dropped around 33 or so and he was a bit of a late bloomer. Ovechkin wasn't a late bloomer, he was a superstar at 20.

We'll see what happens, but I wouldn't bank on 894. 800 in itself will be incredible.
 

Big Phil

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As it stands, here are the best goal scorers in NHL history and their finishes each year:

Gretzky - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 5, 6
Hull - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Howe - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8
Richard - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6
Esposito - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 8
Lemieux - 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 7, 7, 9
Bossy - 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7
Ovechkin - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Other than that, who else is there? Jagr, Selanne, Lafleur, Bure and Brett Hull either didn't peak high enough or stayed near the top long enough. Jagr is probably the best of these names. Charlie Gardner led the NHL in goals 5 times as well in the 1930s but wasn't the pure goal scorer as other names on this list and was not in Ovechkin's company. So we're left with pretty elite company and I don't think Ovechkin is worst on that lit above, probably 5th at least.


As for who currently can pull it off, you have Stamkos (1, 1, 2, 2, 2,) and 8th in the NHL this year, while Ovechkin is 1st and could lead the NHL in goals for the 6th time. Stamkos will not be the goal scorer Ovechkin was when all is said and done.
 

BayStreetBully

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As it stands, here are the best goal scorers in NHL history and their finishes each year:

Gretzky - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 5, 6
Hull - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Howe - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8
Richard - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6
Esposito - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 8
Lemieux - 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 7, 7, 9
Bossy - 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7
Ovechkin - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Other than that, who else is there? Jagr, Selanne, Lafleur, Bure and Brett Hull either didn't peak high enough or stayed near the top long enough. Jagr is probably the best of these names. Charlie Gardner led the NHL in goals 5 times as well in the 1930s but wasn't the pure goal scorer as other names on this list and was not in Ovechkin's company. So we're left with pretty elite company and I don't think Ovechkin is worst on that lit above, probably 5th at least.


As for who currently can pull it off, you have Stamkos (1, 1, 2, 2, 2,) and 8th in the NHL this year, while Ovechkin is 1st and could lead the NHL in goals for the 6th time. Stamkos will not be the goal scorer Ovechkin was when all is said and done.

Yes, I would believe those 8 names are the correct starting point in determining their greatness. I also think those numbers can be adjusted to reflect the number of times a player would have led had he played more games that season. For example, I'm comfortable in saying that had Ovechkin played more games in 2010, he would have led the league in goals because his GPG pace was comfortably higher than his competitors. He was only off by 1 goal in 9 less games for the league lead. This only applies in "slam dunk" cases.

I understand that injuries are a part of the game, and that perhaps injuries are a direct result of the style of play of the players, but I still think this adjustment can be taken into consideration, even if Crosby and Stamkos are officially in the record books over Ovechkin. I believe it's all part of the evaluation process in comparing the greats.
 
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TheDevilMadeMe

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As it stands, here are the best goal scorers in NHL history and their finishes each year:

Gretzky - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 5, 6
Hull - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Howe - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8
Richard - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6
Esposito - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 8
Lemieux - 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 7, 7, 9
Bossy - 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7
Ovechkin - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Other than that, who else is there? Jagr, Selanne, Lafleur, Bure and Brett Hull either didn't peak high enough or stayed near the top long enough. Jagr is probably the best of these names. Charlie Gardner led the NHL in goals 5 times as well in the 1930s but wasn't the pure goal scorer as other names on this list and was not in Ovechkin's company. So we're left with pretty elite company and I don't think Ovechkin is worst on that lit above, probably 5th at least.


As for who currently can pull it off, you have Stamkos (1, 1, 2, 2, 2,) and 8th in the NHL this year, while Ovechkin is 1st and could lead the NHL in goals for the 6th time. Stamkos will not be the goal scorer Ovechkin was when all is said and done.

Charlie Conacher. Not as good as the ones you initially listed, but easily above Jagr and Lafleur, and I'd have him over Selanne, Bure, and Brett, as well.

Side note, as purely a goal scorer, I have no idea why you'd have Jagr over Selanne and Bure.
 

BayStreetBully

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Charlie Conacher. Not as good as the ones you initially listed, but easily above Jagr and Lafleur, and I'd have him over Selanne, Bure, and Brett, as well.

Side note, as purely a goal scorer, I have no idea why you'd have Jagr over Selanne and Bure.

I was curious about Conacher, actually. I have no idea what to make of stats pre-original 6. Why do you place Conacher behind the other 5 time league leaders? I'm sure you have your reasons...
 

seventieslord

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Charlie Conacher. Not as good as the ones you initially listed, but easily above Jagr and Lafleur, and I'd have him over Selanne, Bure, and Brett, as well.

Side note, as purely a goal scorer, I have no idea why you'd have Jagr over Selanne and Bure.

Adjusted goals (scaled back in 1995) and actual games played in each of their 7 best goal scoring seasons:

350 in 500
341 in 517

Which one is which? Tune in at 10. The answer.... may surprise you.
 
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Black Gold Extractor

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As it stands, here are the best goal scorers in NHL history and their finishes each year:

Gretzky - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4, 4, 5, 6
Hull - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
Howe - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 7, 8
Richard - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6
Esposito - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 8
Lemieux - 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 3, 7, 7, 9
Bossy - 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7
Ovechkin - 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 3, 3, 4, 5

Other than that, who else is there? Jagr, Selanne, Lafleur, Bure and Brett Hull either didn't peak high enough or stayed near the top long enough. Jagr is probably the best of these names. Charlie Gardner led the NHL in goals 5 times as well in the 1930s but wasn't the pure goal scorer as other names on this list and was not in Ovechkin's company. So we're left with pretty elite company and I don't think Ovechkin is worst on that lit above, probably 5th at least.


As for who currently can pull it off, you have Stamkos (1, 1, 2, 2, 2,) and 8th in the NHL this year, while Ovechkin is 1st and could lead the NHL in goals for the 6th time. Stamkos will not be the goal scorer Ovechkin was when all is said and done.

... I think you might be underestimating Charlie Conacher? Between 1930-31 through 1935-36, Conacher led the league in goals in 5 of 6 seasons and led in points twice (one time more than Ovechkin). His level of goal-scoring dominance during those years:

Player|Games|Goals|Goals per game| 82-game pace
Charlie Conacher|254|170|0.67| 54
Bill Cook|279|133|0.48| 39
Marty Barry|283|133|0.47| 38
Busher Jackson|266|126|0.47| 38
Nels Stewart|270|122|0.45| 37
Cecil Dilion|265|107|0.40| 33
Aurele Joliat|283|100|0.35| 28

Actual goals scored dominance is 1.27x over 2nd place. Goals per game dominance is 1.40x over 2nd place.

Conacher was also the overall points leader (and points per game leader) during those 6 years with 271 points in 254 games (1.07 points per game) followed by Jackson with 232 points in 266 games (0.87 points per game).

Weirdly, Conacher wasn't in the top 10 in goals except for the instances where he finished first.

Goals finishes: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Assists finishes: 5
Points finishes: 1, 1, 3, 4, 4

Goals per game finishes: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1
Assists per game finishes: 4, 6
Points per game finishes: 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 6

So, in terms of six-year peak performance, Conacher compares pretty favorably with Ovechkin. Ovechkin has him beat in terms of longevity and consistency, though.
 

Sprague Cleghorn

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I was curious about Conacher, actually. I have no idea what to make of stats pre-original 6. Why do you place Conacher behind the other 5 time league leaders? I'm sure you have your reasons...

Quick summary on pre-O6 numbers:

1. Founding of NHL up to mid 20s saw the highest scoring in NHL history. Scoring leaders usually averaged one to two goals per games. Yes, goals not points.

2. Mid-20s to late 20s saw a precipitous drop in scoring. In fact, this is the lowest scoring era in NHL history. The average GPG of this era hovered around 2-3 GPG. The 1928-29 scoring champion, Ace Bailey, holds the record for lowest PPG among all scoring title winners, something around 0.70.

3. Due to the low scoring nature of the game, the NHL finally allowed forward passing in the O-zone for the 1929-30 season. However, offsides did not exist as players could cherrypick in front of the goalie while the puck was at center ice. Of course, scoring skyrocketed to levels similar to that of the early 20s. However, the NHL amended the rules and offsides were implemented midway during the season.

4. This was Conacher's era, the 30s up until 1942-43. After the 1929-30 season, scoring dropped precipitously once more. The average GPG of the 30s hovered around ~4 GPG (in comparison, it's around ~5 GPG today). Playoffs were extremely low scoring compared to the regular season. A 0.5 PPG was considered a good performance and if you had a PPG > 1, you were way ahead of everyone else.

And in attempt to address your second question, the only time Conacher finished in the top-10 for goals, was the 5 seasons where he won the goal scoring title. Outside of those five years, he has nothing of substance. All of those players were elite for > 5 seasons.
 

BayStreetBully

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Quick summary on pre-O6 numbers:

1. Founding of NHL up to mid 20s saw the highest scoring in NHL history. Scoring leaders usually averaged one to two goals per games. Yes, goals not points.

2. Mid-20s to late 20s saw a precipitous drop in scoring. In fact, this is the lowest scoring era in NHL history. The average GPG of this era hovered around 2-3 GPG. The 1928-29 scoring champion, Ace Bailey, holds the record for lowest PPG among all scoring title winners, something around 0.70.

3. Due to the low scoring nature of the game, the NHL finally allowed forward passing in the O-zone for the 1929-30 season. However, offsides did not exist as players could cherrypick in front of the goalie while the puck was at center ice. Of course, scoring skyrocketed to levels similar to that of the early 20s. However, the NHL amended the rules and offsides were implemented midway during the season.

4. This was Conacher's era, the 30s up until 1942-43. After the 1929-30 season, scoring dropped precipitously once more. The average GPG of the 30s hovered around ~4 GPG (in comparison, it's around ~5 GPG today). Playoffs were extremely low scoring compared to the regular season. A 0.5 PPG was considered a good performance and if you had a PPG > 1, you were way ahead of everyone else.

And in attempt to address your second question, the only time Conacher finished in the top-10 for goals, was the 5 seasons where he won the goal scoring title. Outside of those five years, he has nothing of substance. All of those players were elite for > 5 seasons.

Thanks for the great explanation!
 

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