Alex Ovechkin - 500 Goals

[Fantomas]

The way he plays hockey, well his body will soon start to slow down...

I expect him to have perhaps 3 more good seasons and then he will turn into Mike Richards...

Oh sure.

 

[Fantomas]

New conservative estimate (assuming exactly 50 goals for Ovechkin this season):

Season | Estimated goals | Estimated cumulative goals
2015-16|50|525
2016-17|46|571
2017-18|42|613
2018-19|37|650
2019-20|33|683
2020-21|29|712
2021-22|25|737
2022-23|21|758
2023-24|15|773
2024-25|14|787

That's 262 goals in 9 seasons, same as Brendan Shanahan. One more season after this one being a favorite for the Rocket. Three more years after this one being an elite goal scorer. The remaining years being a compiler. Fifteen consecutive 30-goal seasons when it's all said and done. Third most career goals after calling it quits. That seems pretty fair.

Exciting to watch what actually happens, as BenchBrawl says. Let the games begin!

Is there a single player in history whose goal production was on such a consistent downward scale?

 

[seventieslord]

That's not going to happen..

He will be lucky to hit 750...

The way he plays hockey, well his body will soon start to slow down...

I expect him to have perhaps 3 more good seasons and then he will turn into Mike Richards...

Oh boy, you actually said this.

See, I was just assuming no one would stay such a thing and told shawked he wss strawmanning.

 

[seventieslord]

Make more sense in terms of what...?

In terms of comparing players from different eras.

Like I said, a simple career total based argument is going to get it wrong a lot, but if you're going by adjusted totals you'll get it right a little more often than raw stats. Bobby Smith has more career points than Paul Kariya. The latter has more adjusted points.

There are different ways to adjust stats, and they're always going to make stars from lower-scoring eras look better than stars from higher-scoring eras who, in some cases, were much more dominant.

Spoken like someone who doesn't understand, and in all likelihood, doesn't want to.

I mean, this statement is so untrue (and such a vague generalization) that it would be pointless to even try to answer.

 

[Rhiessan71]

Well he's probably technically correct, and there's nothing all too mathematically flawed about adjusted stats

Misleading statement that is only "technically" correct.
The numbers, or at least the limited numbers that are used are correct.
It's the simplicity of the formula and distinct lack of data that's flawed.

(they make a lot more sense than raw stats)

Not every year. Some years the raw stats make more sense and most of the time what makes the most sense tends to lay some where in between both.

 

[seventieslord]

Is there a single player in history whose goal production was on such a consistent downward scale?

I doubt it, but if they posted the same thing with a few deliberately inserted peaks and valleys it would be arbitrary. We know a player will trend down over time, and we can also be pretty sure he's not going to just go down 0.05 GPG a year like clockwork.

Look at it this way - it's pretty certain where he'll end up and we know where he is now. The most likely path between the two is a line or curve that gently leads that way.

Consider it an annual estimate with a big "+/- 10" attached.

Not every year. Some years the raw stats make more sense and most of the time what makes the most sense tends to lay some where in between both.

I don't know what you mean. "Some years"? if we're just talking about one year then why would adjusted stats even enter a conversation?

 

[Voight]

Could be just me but he'll likely have much better goal scoring years later in his career than Shanahan or even Gartner did.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

People keep saying that, yet hes now 30 and 10 seasons in, hes never had a significant injury.

If you honestly think he's going to turn into Mike Richards, then I really dont know what to say.

3 years ago if I told you Mike Richards would turn into Mike Richards you would have called me crazy....

There is no way Ovechkin is going to score 50 goals a season for the next 10 years..

Remember Mike Bossy is the only player to come close to doing that, and he was what? done with hockey by the age of 30...

Ovechkin plays a pretty rough style of hockey.

 

[Voight]

3 years ago if I told you Mike Richards would turn into Mike Richards you would have called me crazy....

There is no way Ovechkin is going to score 50 goals a season for the next 10 years..

Remember Mike Bossy is the only player to come close to doing that, and he was what? done with hockey by the age of 30...

Ovechkin plays a pretty rough style of hockey.

No I wouldnt of, I mean nobody expected him to fall off that much but there were always questions about his conditioning and off season training.

Ovechkin is a superb athlete who has a body that can take just about anything, some players are blessed with this kind of body (Ovy, Howe), some arent (Lindros, Crosby). Sure he plays a rough style but hes got about 1200 games on his body when you count RSL/KHL/NHL/Playoffs/National team and has never missed significant time due to injury.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

Oh boy, you actually said this.

See, I was just assuming no one would stay such a thing and told shawked he wss strawmanning.

I don't know what is wrong with what I said, perhaps Mike Richards was an extreme example, but you know what I mean and how players after 33 or maybe 35 will usually decline in production...

All I'm saying is 1000 goals is just silly...

I don't believe Ovechkin has many more 50+ goal seasons left in him.. I'm sure he has perhaps 2 more 50 goal seasons, maybe 3 seasons after that with 40 goals and then 2 more in the 30's and then 20's... Of course that is assuming he plays until he is 37-40.

 

[Hawksfan2828]

No I wouldnt of, I mean nobody expected him to fall off that much but there were always questions about his conditioning and off season training.

Ovechkin is a superb athlete who has a body that can take just about anything, some players are blessed with this kind of body (Ovy, Howe), some arent (Lindros, Crosby). Sure he plays a rough style but hes got about 1200 games on his body when you count RSL/KHL/NHL/Playoffs/National team and has never missed significant time due to injury.

Yeah he's played a lot of hockey, which is why he will start to slow down in his 30's, especially around 33...

Look man I slowed down, I noticed I don't have the same physical ability as I did when I was in my 20's, and that is for pretty much everyday stuff, nevermind I have noticed I got slower playing recreational hockey and softball...

I mean I'm not in terrible shape but I do feel a decrease...

Ovechkin isn't immune from age....

Trust me how he plays the game will certainly have a toll on his body, especially since he played all those games before he was 30...

 

[Fantomas]

I doubt it, but if they posted the same thing with a few deliberately inserted peaks and valleys it would be arbitrary. We know a player will trend down over time, and we can also be pretty sure he's not going to just go down 0.05 GPG a year like clockwork.

Look at it this way - it's pretty certain where he'll end up and we know where he is now. The most likely path between the two is a line or curve that gently leads that way.

Consider it an annual estimate with a big "+/- 10" attached.

I think that these kinds of projections are silly because they ignore the league-wide context.

Imagine the NHL suddenly expands in two years, which increases lead-wide scoring rates. Ovechkin, as a result, might regress but the numbers might not even show it.

We saw something similar in the 70s and 80s as well - when league-wide context saw an increase in scoring, which made older players' raw stats look good.

Too many people associate performance with raw stats. It doesn't work that way. I can tell you that Ovechkin is likely to finish with 750-850 goals in his career without doing a dumb curve.

 

[seventieslord]

I think that these kinds of projections are silly because they ignore the league-wide context.

Imagine the NHL suddenly expands in two years, which increases lead-wide scoring rates. Ovechkin, as a result, might regress but the numbers might not even show it.

We saw something similar in the 70s and 80s as well - when league-wide context saw an increase in scoring, which made older players' raw stats look good.

Too many people associate performance with raw stats. It doesn't work that way. I can tell you that Ovechkin is likely to finish with 750-850 goals in his career without doing a dumb curve.

So? Some people prefer a visual.

 

[Voight]

Look man I slowed down, I noticed I don't have the same physical ability as I did when I was in my 20's, and that is for pretty much everyday stuff, nevermind I have noticed I got slower playing recreational hockey and softball...

I mean I'm not in terrible shape but I do feel a decrease...

Ovechkin isn't immune from age....

Trust me how he plays the game will certainly have a toll on his body, especially since he played all those games before he was 30...

No he isnt, but you have to realize there is a reason he is a professional athlete and everyone here isnt, his body can take punishment and stay at a physical peak for a long time.

Gordie Howe played regularly until he was 51, Chelios 48 and Jagr now at 43, almost 44. There is no reason Ovechkin cant, especially when you consider how rough the first two played.

 

[Rhiessan71]

I don't know what you mean. "Some years"? if we're just talking about one year then why would adjusted stats even enter a conversation?

I meant that when comparing some years there is overwhelming reason to lean one way a lot more.
Best examples are the height of the 80's where leaning towards the adjusted numbers is more reasonable due to inflated raw stats but the reverse is true when dealing with DPE numbers that become far too inflated through adjusting.

Like I said, the most reasonable answer lays somewhere between the two.
You have the raw and you have the AS, then it's just a matter of agreeing where the slider should end up.
It just takes common sense, peer to peer data/comparisons and a better understanding of tier scoring values.

Bottom line is that any adjustment that says that Gretzky would have the same amount of trouble scoring as Chris Nilan in a harsher scoring environment is just wrong on every level.
My long standing argument that a harsher scoring environment would choke off the lower tier guys a hell of a lot more than the top tier guys still stands and it has been proven at length that while the top tier guys did score more in the 80's, they are NOT the ones responsible for those levels. It was secondary scoring that accounted for the much greater degree of it.
The choking off of that secondary scoring is the biggest factor in the League scoring level decline. The top guys are scoring less as well sure but their levels have NOT dropped off by anything close to the overall League levels.

 

[Ishdul]

3 years ago if I told you Mike Richards would turn into Mike Richards you would have called me crazy....

There is no way Ovechkin is going to score 50 goals a season for the next 10 years..

Remember Mike Bossy is the only player to come close to doing that, and he was what? done with hockey by the age of 30...

Ovechkin plays a pretty rough style of hockey.

Richards is, by almost all accounts, a drug/alcohol related breakdown.

I don't think it's impossible that Ovechkin breaks down soon-ish but then predicting those kinds of things never works out. Like, maybe he takes some weird hit and busts his knee, or has chronic back problems that haven't been discovered yet, like lots of players do... Or maybe he doesn't, like lots of players don't. Saying he plays a rough style isn't really great evidence, since he's been remarkably healthy for his career and I don't think he's taking that much more physical punishment than other top players.

 

[Joedaman55]

Well, NHL.com just posted an estimate of Ovechkin's future production based on "the average scoring decrease of history's other great goal-scorers as they aged".

Converting from chart to table form:

Season | Estimated goals | Estimated cumulative goals
2015-16|50|525
2016-17|49|574
2017-18|48|622
2018-19|43|665
2019-20|38|703
2020-21|42|745
2021-22|36|781
2022-23|29|810
2023-24|19|829
2024-25|16|845

I'm not sure why there's a sudden bump in at age 35. Here's my somewhat more conservative (but still wildly optimistic, IMHO) estimate after smoothing out that weird bump:

Season | Estimated goals | Estimated cumulative goals
2015-16|50|525
2016-17|49|574
2017-18|48|622
2018-19|43|665
2019-20|38|703
2020-21|35|738
2021-22|29|767
2022-23|22|789
2023-24|19|808
2024-25|16|824

EDIT: NHL.com estimates Ovechkin scoring 320 goals in 9 seasons starting from his age 31 season. My somewhat pared-down estimate says 299 in 9 seasons. Not sure this passes the smell test... maybe? Esposito managed an incredible 319 goals in 8 seasons. Shanahan managed 262 goals in 9 seasons. Gartner had 259 goals in 8 seasons. Discuss (or not... it's up to you ).

I believe you are overestimating what Ovechkin's production will be. I think an average of 40 goals for the next four season is more realistic. I think younger people (use to be myself before I hit 30) don't realize the physical wall people hit at 30. Injuries occur more, your body takes longer to heal, and your athletism is poorer. Ovechkin is a world class athlete but he will hit this wall as well.

I think a 35-40 goal average for the next four years is likely and 25 goal average for the years after that. Ovechkin's shot and positioning will keep him on power play units until the day he retires which will keep his goal totals up.

 

[Hardyvan123]

Umm...

1) Nobody cares about "Adjusted goals". The very fact that you project an "adjusted" leader means that it WILL be disputed.

Well then I'll trade you my 1000 Italian Lire for your 1000 american or heck even Canadian dollars since a 1000 is a 1000 right?

2) I'm not sure what your source is, but according to hockey-reference Ovechkin has about 600 'adjusted goals' and Gordie Howe has 925. Are you really confident that a healthy Ovechkin will score 325 more "adjusted goals"? I'm not.

Well he is scoring over 50 adjusted goals per year lately so in 6 seasons he would be around Howe.

3) We're all welcome to have our opinions on who is the "greatest". There is no stat that indisputably proves anything.

no there isn't any stat that indisputably proves anything but those clinging to raw counting stats without any context or adjustment have a weaker case right?

4 or 5 more seasons of current AO production and the case will start to get really weak for anyone other than AO as the greatest goal scorer of all time IMO.

As it is he is in the mix before this season even started.

 

[Hardyvan123]

I meant that when comparing some years there is overwhelming reason to lean one way a lot more.
Best examples are the height of the 80's where leaning towards the adjusted numbers is more reasonable due to inflated raw stats but the reverse is true when dealing with DPE numbers that become far too inflated through adjusting.

Like I said, the most reasonable answer lays somewhere between the two.
You have the raw and you have the AS, then it's just a matter of agreeing where the slider should end up.
It just takes common sense, peer to peer data/comparisons and a better understanding of tier scoring values.

Bottom line is that any adjustment that says that Gretzky would have the same amount of trouble scoring as Chris Nilan in a harsher scoring environment is just wrong on every level.
My long standing argument that a harsher scoring environment would choke off the lower tier guys a hell of a lot more than the top tier guys still stands and it has been proven at length that while the top tier guys did score more in the 80's, they are NOT the ones responsible for those levels. It was secondary scoring that accounted for the much greater degree of it.
The choking off of that secondary scoring is the biggest factor in the League scoring level decline. The top guys are scoring less as well sure but their levels have NOT dropped off by anything close to the overall League levels.

you really need to go look at yearly top 10 in scoring, goals, assists and points to see how flawed your argument is here.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_top_10.html

I provided goals as the example for this thread.

all though the 80's the 10th best goal scoring player in the league scored

47,48,50,48,47,46,46,42,48,46 goals in a smaller 21 team league.

during the last 10 years AO has been in the league with 9 more teams every year (so a greater chance of a higher goal scorer), the 10th leading scorer has had,

40,40,40,39,35,34,36, 21 (in a 48 game season prorates to 36.75),34 and 33 goals.

So Chris Nilan really doesn't factor into this debate at all to any degree of significance.

 

[Rhiessan71]

you really need to go look at yearly top 10 in scoring, goals, assists and points to see how flawed your argument is here.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_top_10.html

I provided goals as the example for this thread.

all though the 80's the 10th best goal scoring player in the league scored

47,48,50,48,47,46,46,42,48,46 goals in a smaller 21 team league.

during the last 10 years AO has been in the league with 9 more teams every year (so a greater chance of a higher goal scorer), the 10th leading scorer has had,

40,40,40,39,35,34,36, 21 (in a 48 game season prorates to 36.75),34 and 33 goals.

So Chris Nilan really doesn't factor into this debate at all to any degree of significance.

Except my "argument" had very little to do with OV and his goal scoring nor did I even suggest that goal scoring on all tiers is not lower now than it has been for a good chunk of the past.

It was simply about people continuing to try and use a flawed, due to a lack of proper input, method of Adjustment and then using those numbers as gospel.

The reality here is that OV's goal scoring speaks for itself and there is no need to resort to Adjusted Stats/Goals.

Let his incredible margins on other goal scorers since he came into the League do it.
Let his soon to be 500 goals and little doubt of 600+ by the end of his career speak for itself.
Let the fact that he could become only the 3rd player in NHL history to have 7 50 goal seasons speak for itself.
Simply say that he is doing it all despite it being harder to score than when the others did it.

Using a poor method of Adjusting to come up with laughable "exact" numbers is just not needed.

 

[Big Phil]

With this rate he could get to 1000 before the end of his career, that is just amazing

He won't though. That would mean he would have to score the same amount of goals in his 30s that he did in his 20s. No, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here. There was a time when we figured (post 2010) that Ovechkin was done as an elite goal scorer. That wasn't true of course. However, it is really, really hard to stay as an elite goal scorer in your 30s. History doesn't side with Ovechkin on this one. So we'll see.

But most importantly, just enjoy what you see right now from Ovechkin. He is definitely one of those "I watched him play" types.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

Well he's probably technically correct, and there's nothing all too mathematically flawed about adjusted stats

Except that whoever designed it forgot how much easier it is to score on the power play

 

[1990*]

He won't though. That would mean he would have to score the same amount of goals in his 30s that he did in his 20s. No, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here. There was a time when we figured (post 2010) that Ovechkin was done as an elite goal scorer. That wasn't true of course. However, it is really, really hard to stay as an elite goal scorer in your 30s. History doesn't side with Ovechkin on this one. So we'll see.

But by that same token, we're already firmly into the World of Tomorrow when it comes to sports medicine and training. It's going to be a rough next decade to be anywhere in the NHL's record books, because the odds are we'll see a lot of those names erased as some truly freakish careers start to manifest themselves. If you thought Ciccarelli, Gartner et al were compilers before, wait until guys are averaging 20 goals a year until the age of 45!

Even if he "only" potted 30 a year until 40, Ovechkin could reach 800 goals without breaking a sweat. That leaves 100 goals over the following 5 years, should he decide Gretzky's mark is a record worth pursuing- and he strikes me as the type. Even if he's on his last legs, a 20-20-40 Ovechkin is still an NHL player.

Maybe he gets to 1000, maybe he doesn't... but I think 894 is within reach. Scary, really.

 

[The Panther]

Even if he "only" potted 30 a year until 40, Ovechkin could reach 800 goals without breaking a sweat.

He won't.

 

[1990*]

He won't.

I'm not saying year-in, year-out- moreso an average- but why is that unreasonable? Selanne averaged 26.5 between the ages of 30 and 40, and that's including time missed with injuries and that sort of thing. Are we assuming Ovechkin can't improve on that a touch- either through front-loading with 50 goals years rather than 40 goal years, as Selanne only had after 30, or by not tailing off as hard near the end? We're talking a generational scorer here.