Confirmed with Link: Adam Fox for 2019 2nd (NYR), 2020 3rd (cond.)

[Rangerfan4life90]

Fox was drafted in the 3rd round, chances are we could have found 2 very good players with 2 high 2nd round picks.

Maybe, maybe not.

I'll take my chances with Adam Fox. He's a legit top prospect.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

This sums it up as well as some other trades Rangers made in the past:

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Maybe, maybe not.

I'll take my chances with Adam Fox. He's a legit top prospect.

yes, but he is not guaranteed to be successful in NHL and he is in the same mold (smallish puck moving offensive Dmen) as our other RD prospects like Pionk, ADA, Keane, Nils, etc. If he was 6'4" and also destroyed people with hits then yes he is a legit can't miss prospect that we had to have, but I am not so sure he is that much better than the ones we already have.

 

[Harbour Dog]

This sums it up as well as some other trades Rangers made in the past:

Short of Gorton holding a presser and saying, "I know we overpaid for Fox in this situation, but...", most people are going to resist the idea that we paid more than we should have.

Best off just moving on. We still got a very good player at a discount, when everything is said and done.

 

[Inferno]

If Fox was eligible for the draft this year at his age where would he go? 7? 10? 15?

Is that worth 2 2nds?
Of course it is.

 

[egelband]

Short of Gorton holding a presser and saying, "I know we overpaid for Fox in this situation, but...", most people are going to resist the idea that we paid more than we should have.

Best off just moving on. We still got a very good player at a discount, when everything is said and done.

Yep. Carolina might have been able to get more from a team trying to convince Fox. Whether Fox could be swayed or not, it would have complicated and delayed things. Pay for convenience.

 

[Tob]

yes, but he is not guaranteed to be successful in NHL and he is in the same mold (smallish puck moving offensive Dmen) as our other RD prospects like Pionk, ADA, Keane, Nils, etc. If he was 6'4" and also destroyed people with hits then yes he is a legit can't miss prospect that we had to have, but I am not so sure he is that much better than the ones we already have.

A D+3 highly touted prospect who is NHL ready is "not guaranteed to be successful in the NHL" so instead, you'd rather have the sure thing in a pair of 2nd round picks, one of the most overvalued commodities in hockey. By your own logic, if very promising 21 year olds aren't a guarantee, then surely you'd want to have lots of them in the system so if a few miss the mark, we would still get a few that do make it. 6'4 and destroys people does not make them "legit can't miss prospects". Dylan McIlrath should have been missed and was a prospect that we did not had to have. You are working with faulty categories as well. Puck moving is a necessity for defensemen. Just because they move pucks well doesn't make them of the same mold. I suspect your categories are "6'4 and destroys people with hits" and "not 6'4 and does not destroy people with hits". Lastly, you're not sure if he's that much better than the ones we already have because you've never watched Adam Fox play hockey more than the duration of a few gifs.

 

[ReggieDunlop68]

A D+3 highly touted prospect who is NHL ready is "not guaranteed to be successful in the NHL" so instead, you'd rather have the sure thing in a pair of 2nd round picks, one of the most overvalued commodities in hockey. By your own logic, if very promising 21 year olds aren't a guarantee, then surely you'd want to have lots of them in the system so if a few miss the mark, we would still get a few that do make it. 6'4 and destroys people does not make them "legit can't miss prospects". Dylan McIlrath should have been missed and was a prospect that we did not had to have. You are working with faulty categories as well. Puck moving is a necessity for defensemen. Just because they move pucks well doesn't make them of the same mold. I suspect your categories are "6'4 and destroys people with hits" and "not 6'4 and does not destroy people with hits". Lastly, you're not sure if he's that much better than the ones we already have because you've never watched Adam Fox play hockey more than the duration of a few gifs.

It's the HF Boards mystery box ¿what if?

Anything could be inside the box...even a box!

 

[2Leetch_94]

It's the HF Boards mystery box ¿what if?

Anything could be inside the box...even a box!

Adam Fox is Adam Fox. Anything could be in the mystery box, it could even be Adam Fox!

 

[eco's bones]

It's not clear to me that Fox is going to play 30 games for the Rangers next year--he has Shattenkirk, DeAngelo and the much maligned Pionk right now to compete against for ice time on the right side and that's barring the Rangers bringing in another right side defenseman and I think they should certainly look for someone more reliable defensively on the right side. If Fox doesn't play 30 NHL games and for whatever reason the condition doesn't kick in and the 2020 draft pick will remain a 3rd round pick.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

The worst part of it is that our rebuilding has been going amazingly well.

1. Won Kakko.
2. Stole Fox.
3. Scored a hit with Chytil.
4. Great looking Kravtsov pick.
5. Acquired a ton of prospects including the highway robbery of Boston.

We made more progress in the 15 months since the letter than anyone could've ever hoped for. But let's F it up and go back to the way we tried to do it during the Dark Ages.

The common misconception is that these steps were part of the rebuild, not a reason to abandon/accelerate the rebuild.

Acquiring a top-3 pick is part of a good rebuild. If anything, acquiring that just solidifies the rebuild at this stage. Adding a bluechip RD prospect in Adam Fox (let's wait and see what he does in the NHL first) is another step in the rebuild.

We just went into phase 3 of 5.

Phase 1: Trade rentals for picks and prospects and acquire quantity
Phase 2: Build through the draft for prospects and trades for young NHL-ready players
Phase 3: Focus on quality with high picks and trades, and for one of your many prospects in the system to reach that top potential
Phase 4: Acquire veterans to fill out the team and help take tough minutes away from your young prospects
Phase 5: Build a team ready to compete for the Cup

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

This sums it up as well as some other trades Rangers made in the past:

A player forcing his way to a specific team does not affect the price in a trade.

It didn't happen with Tim Erixon, it didn't happen with Martin St Louis, it didn't happen with Eric Staal. Why are we expecting it to be any different with Adam Fox?

 

[Leetch3]

well that ****in sucks. Probably makes Marner not an option at that price

I don't think trading those picks makes much of a difference though cause less than $10 mil Toronto just says thanks for negotiating for us and matches.

 

[Synergy27]

Fox was drafted in the 3rd round, chances are we could have found 2 very good players with 2 high 2nd round picks.

If you actually look at the data, chances are that those 2nd round picks will turn into nothing at all. There is actual math showing this to be true. Like, real, indisputable mathematical calculations based on actual data.

 

[Off Sides]

The common misconception is that these steps were part of the rebuild, not a reason to abandon/accelerate the rebuild.

Acquiring a top-3 pick is part of a good rebuild. If anything, acquiring that just solidifies the rebuild at this stage. Adding a bluechip RD prospect in Adam Fox (let's wait and see what he does in the NHL first) is another step in the rebuild.

We just went into phase 3 of 5.

Phase 1: Trade rentals for picks and prospects and acquire quantity
Phase 2: Build through the draft for prospects and trades for young NHL-ready players
Phase 3: Focus on quality with high picks and trades, and for one of your many prospects in the system to reach that top potential
Phase 4: Acquire veterans to fill out the team and help take tough minutes away from your young prospects
Phase 5: Build a team ready to compete for the Cup

Don't forget, pay for the players as they get more and more expensive. For if the team can't keep them due to cap constraints it diminishes the whole reason they went through phases 1 thru 3

 

[Matt4776]

The common misconception is that these steps were part of the rebuild, not a reason to abandon/accelerate the rebuild.

Acquiring a top-3 pick is part of a good rebuild. If anything, acquiring that just solidifies the rebuild at this stage. Adding a bluechip RD prospect in Adam Fox (let's wait and see what he does in the NHL first) is another step in the rebuild.

We just went into phase 3 of 5.

Phase 1: Trade rentals for picks and prospects and acquire quantity
Phase 2: Build through the draft for prospects and trades for young NHL-ready players
Phase 3: Focus on quality with high picks and trades, and for one of your many prospects in the system to reach that top potential
Phase 4: Acquire veterans to fill out the team and help take tough minutes away from your young prospects
Phase 5: Build a team ready to compete for the Cup

Indeed.

Getting the extra picks/prospects from dealing off our vets definitely made our rebuild better. Like you said, it builds quantity, organizational depth, and drastically reduces the odds that our team becomes Edmonton-like with a couple of highly-drafted stars surrounded by shit (though I don't think we'd become Edmonton regardless just because we're in New York, but I digress.) When you end up like Edmonton did, with stars and shit, you are forced to overpay for depth. That means giving Lucic the worst contract in the NHL, and it means giving up an MVP for Adam Larsson.

But, that to me is gravy. That's the bonus we get for being willingly to make the sacrifice and commit to a rebuild before we were already the worst team in the NHL. The real part of the rebuild is picking high. We were blessed with Kakko this year. Our first full season of rebuilding. I'm willing to "sacrifice" another year to see how our kids develop, get a clearer idea of where we stand organizationally, and importantly, let another year run on Staal/Hank/Smith/Shattenkirk's contracts.

And I put "sacrifice" in quotes because I don't think its a sacrifice at all! We;re going to have so many young guys to watch and develop next year. Will Chytil, Howden, and Andersson take steps forward? Will Lemieux keep developing to become someone that could be a 3rd liner on a contender? Will Buchvenich take the next step and finally find consistency? How will Tony look with (hopefully) increased usage all year? Who snags that one LD spot between Rykov, Hajek, Lindgren.etc.

And of course, that's not even including the sexy new names of Kakko, Kravtsov, and Fox.

It's going to be a blast to watch these guys play next year, even if we're bad, which I think we will be even with Panarin. We are spending 28.8M next year on Shattenkirk, Staal, Smith, Hank, and Girardi. That's 36% of our cap on 3-dmen, a former d-man, and a goalie, and we still have probably the worst defense in the league and below average goaltending. Hank is one of the best players in this franchise's history, but has a bad back from carrying our sorry team for a decade, and is not an above average player anymore.

If we can keep our books clean, we can roll into the July of 2021 with what may be the) most promising young core in the league, all of which are hitting 20-21 years of age where they can start becoming difference makers (albeit statistically, still very much on the early end of that window) with a MOUNTAIN of cap space.

That's when you spend. That's when you get the most value- he'll both help the team get over the hump into perennial playoff team, and then still be relevant when we're aiming to be a top team in the league.

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

If you actually look at the data, chances are that those 2nd round picks will turn into nothing at all. There is actual math showing this to be true. Like, real, indisputable mathematical calculations based on actual data.

This basically shows what you are talking about

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Some of the commentary in here really exposes the lack of basic knowledge about how business in general works.

I can only imagine if Fox was traded elsewhere for the same package and signed an extension with said team afterwards, how many people would be screaming at Gorton for not giving up what we did to get him.

How hard is it to understand that waiting an entire year, in the hopes he will sign with you, is taking a huge gamble.

It's quite easy to see another team trading for him and trying to woo him with money and/or playing time and him choosing to sign there.

This was the right move. If the opportunity was there, which it was, you take it. You don't wait and cross your fingers that he'll arrive next year. Don't be greedy. We got a top-flight prospects for two picks that have less than a 50% chance of making the NHL.

 

[ElLeetch]

If Fox was eligible for the draft this year at his age where would he go? 7? 10? 15?

Is that worth 2 2nds?
Of course it is.

this is the way i see it. Fox in this draft goes in the 15-20 range, at least.

Rangers used a conditional 2nd/3rd to move up ~20 spots from 37 into the middle of the first round. IIRC, they spent more just to move up a few slots to get KA Miller.

That is more than fair value.

 

[ElLeetch]

Fox was drafted in the 3rd round, chances are we could have found 2 very good players with 2 high 2nd round picks.

Sorry, no. Our last 5 consecutive second round picks have been:Lindbom, Gropp, Halverson, Nieves, and Thomas. Where are these "very good" players?

Across the NHL, only about 4-5 players from the second round ever see meaningful (500+ games) time in the NHL. Another 4-5 do a few years as a 3rd/4th liner, and over half almost see no or minimal NHL games.

a 2nd rounder is about a 10% chance of being a 'very good' player, and i'm more than happy trading two 10% lottery tickets for a 50/50 coin flip (which is closer to what Fox is as a D+3 player)

 

[ElLeetch]

Agreed. With Hank we iced mediocre teams throughout his prime where he dragged us to the playoffs. We gave him probably 3 good teams and he made them contenders.

I want to give Kakko or Hughes more than 3 shots at a cup. Obviously not expecting an 18 year old to carry us to the finals, but we need to start while he and others are on their ELCs. Kane and Toews had Keith and Hossa signed to big deals which turned into steals (sketchy contracts, but the point stands). Pay Panarin now while we can before our talent commands more.

Hank was too good too fast. we should have been lottery contenders in the 2006-2008 drafts, but instead, we were dragged into the playoffs.

 

[Off Sides]

Some of the commentary in here really exposes the lack of basic knowledge about how business in general works.

I can only imagine if Fox was traded elsewhere for the same package and signed an extension with said team afterwards, how many people would be screaming at Gorton for not giving up what we did to get him.

How hard is it to understand that waiting an entire year, in the hopes he will sign with you, is taking a huge gamble.

It's quite easy to see another team trading for him and trying to woo him with money and/or playing time and him choosing to sign there.

This was the right move. If the opportunity was there, which it was, you take it. You don't wait and cross your fingers that he'll arrive next year. Don't be greedy. We got a top-flight prospects for two picks that have less than a 50% chance of making the NHL.

That is basically my take too, had the Canes traded his right somewhere else, even if that too had conditional stuff in it based on his signing there, and he ended up signing there how does it help the Rangers if they held out to pay less.

At some point playing for ones most desired location seems less important when a opportunity to play for say your 2nd or 3rd favorite destination is staring you in the face.

However with that said until he is officially signed, and plausible winnable NHL spot is presented, latter may have to proceed the former, I'll still have some reservations.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

He must love Rob O’Gara

 

[Levitate]

Isn’t the UFA class of 2021 terrible?

Part of the reason people are thinking about a guy like Panarin is because it’s rare a guy like him as young as him becomes available. Having tons of cap space for UFA signings I’d pointless if all the UFA suck

That said I’m not really advocating for Panarin either just that there’s also some considerations about when to spend and what the available players will look like

 

[BLOCKERSAVE]

Any news on his signing ?