Confirmed with Link: Adam Fox for 2019 2nd (NYR), 2020 3rd (cond.)

[Jaromir Jagr]

Isn’t the UFA class of 2021 terrible?

Part of the reason people are thinking about a guy like Panarin is because it’s rare a guy like him as young as him becomes available. Having tons of cap space for UFA signings I’d pointless if all the UFA suck

That said I’m not really advocating for Panarin either just that there’s also some considerations about when to spend and what the available players will look like

As young as him? He'll be 28 at the beginning of next season. He's not that young.

It's always really difficult to foresee who will actually make it to FA. But there's a lot of potential FA's that are also quite good. Hall next year, Landeskog/Hamilton 2021. But what I am sure of, by the time the Rangers are ready to compete and have a stocked cupboard, they can be in on any trades when a premium player becomes available, which happens every year or two (Stone, Hall, EK, etc.)

It just makes no sense to lock themselves into a long-term contract for a guy who:

A: Will likely be on the wrong side of 30 come our next window.

B: Will not necessarily fill the biggest need. Right now our wings look pretty good moving forward (KK, Kravtsov, Buch, Chytil, etc.).

I'd rather save that big contract space for either re-signing our own players when the time comes, or getting someone who actually fills a void.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

A player forcing his way to a specific team does not affect the price in a trade.

It didn't happen with Tim Erixon, it didn't happen with Martin St Louis, it didn't happen with Eric Staal. Why are we expecting it to be any different with Adam Fox?

Because it really should affect the price, common sense.

 

[Kakko Schmakko]

Sorry, no. Our last 5 consecutive second round picks have been:Lindbom, Gropp, Halverson, Nieves, and Thomas. Where are these "very good" players?

Across the NHL, only about 4-5 players from the second round ever see meaningful (500+ games) time in the NHL. Another 4-5 do a few years as a 3rd/4th liner, and over half almost see no or minimal NHL games.

a 2nd rounder is about a 10% chance of being a 'very good' player, and i'm more than happy trading two 10% lottery tickets for a 50/50 coin flip (which is closer to what Fox is as a D+3 player)

Were all of them high 2nd round picks? No. And it is stupid to limit to only last 5 and only from Rangers. We got plenty of good players in the 2nd round including Stepan, Tyutin, Dubinsky, Anisimov

 

[nyr2k2]

Yeah right

Were all of them high 2nd round picks? No. And it is stupid to limit to only last 5 and only from Rangers. We got plenty of good players in the 2nd round including Stepan, Tyutin, Dubinsky, Anisimov

Draft Theory: On Risk and Reward - NHL Numbers
https://www.tsn.ca/playing-the-percentages-in-the-nhl-draft-1.206144
Analyzing the value of NHL draft picks - Sportsnet.ca
A Draftee's Chances

And it goes on and on. Basically you have a 20%-40% chance of drafting an NHL player in the second round, on average, the disparity being how you define "NHL player"--50 games played vs. 200 games played, for instance.

If you split the differen and say you have a 30% change of drafting a guy who plays 125 NHL games, and you have two shots at it, would you really rather have that than Adam Fox? I wouldn't, and I think you'd have to be crazy to say you would.

 

[Thirty One]

what are you trying to say?

That if you look at previous second rounds it's pretty clear that it's not likely a team would have "found 2 very good players with 2 high 2nd round picks." How was that not obvious?

 

[Leetch3]

Because it really should affect the price, common sense.

it did effect his price. we got him for less than he was worth. just because it was more than what you imagined based on no information, evidence or facts doesn't mean anything

 

[JT Kreider]

If you actually look at the data, chances are that those 2nd round picks will turn into nothing at all. There is actual math showing this to be true. Like, real, indisputable mathematical calculations based on actual data.

Plus all you have to do is look back on Gordie Clark's track record with 2nd round picks and realize it is no big loss.

Gropp, Halverson, Thomas and Nieves. And a reach on Lindbom at the one position which is the biggest crapshoot and least valued in the draft and we have the best organizational depth at. Yikes.

We might be the only team in the league that has nothing to show for a 2nd round pick within the last decade.

 

[nyr2k2]

Plus all you have to do is look back on Gordie Clark's track record with 2nd round picks and realize it is no big loss.

Gropp, Halverson, Thomas and Nieves. And a reach on Lindbom at the one position which is the biggest crapshoot and least valued in the draft and we have the best organizational depth at. Yikes.

We might be the only team in the league that has nothing to show for a 2nd round pick within the last decade.

And it's funny, because of all those studies/breakdowns I posted earlier, they tend to use between 50-200 games as criteria for "making it." And by that logic, Boo Nieves, when all is said and done, will likely go down as a guy who "made it."

 

[romba]

Some of the commentary in here really exposes the lack of basic knowledge about how business in general works.

I can only imagine if Fox was traded elsewhere for the same package and signed an extension with said team afterwards, how many people would be screaming at Gorton for not giving up what we did to get him.

How hard is it to understand that waiting an entire year, in the hopes he will sign with you, is taking a huge gamble.

It's quite easy to see another team trading for him and trying to woo him with money and/or playing time and him choosing to sign there.

This was the right move. If the opportunity was there, which it was, you take it. You don't wait and cross your fingers that he'll arrive next year. Don't be greedy. We got a top-flight prospects for two picks that have less than a 50% chance of making the NHL.

Agreed, totally worth the extra second for the guarantee. Pretty much guaranteed two good players in the second round? What are people smoking? Developing players takes time and money and is no guarantee. Folks are already down on Anderson and he was a first rounder jfc.

Many years I don't even remember the second rounders 2 weeks after the draft. If they perform in D+1 great, I get pumped. If not(as is usually the case), just another prospect that will take time to cook and most probably become nada/minor league trade fodder. I'd do the trade again in a heart beat.

 

[Beacon]

Focus on quality with high picks and trades, and for one of your many prospects in the system to reach that top potential

Higher picks do NOT mean higher potential. Draftees are not judged by their ceiling alone. In fact, the floor is more important to GMs than ceilings because no GM ever got fired for taking a role player. Neil Smith survived drafting More, Sundstrom and Malhotra with top-10 picks, but the Brendl failure, albeit among others, was a major reason for his firing.

If you review past drafts, guys drafted in the 7-12 range tend to wind up 3rd liners or at least middle-6. There are very few of them who become stars. In the teens, you suddenly see Hossa, Karlsson, etc. Why? Because by that point, safe guys are gone, and if you're choosing among lottery tickets, may as well choose the one with the biggest upside.

That's why Lias was universally ranked above Chytil. That's why to draft high potential in Kravtsov, the Rangers had to "reach" for a guy few viewed as top-10.

 

[JT Kreider]

And it's funny, because of all those studies/breakdowns I posted earlier, they tend to use between 50-200 games as criteria for "making it." And by that logic, Boo Nieves, when all is said and done, will likely go down as a guy who "made it."

A higher bar to clear I'm talking about players who are impact NHL'ers or are held in high regard in terms of their future value. The 2015 2nd round alone featured players such as:

Fischer, Dermott, Aho, Carlo, Blackwood, Cernak, Hintz, Greenway, Dunn and R. Andersson.

While Debrincat, Hart and Girard were the following year. So yes there is value to be had in the 2nd round but unfortunately Clark has shown no reason to trust that he can find it.

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Let's, in a vacuum, look some of the Rangers recent second round picks (we haven't picked a ton in recent years, so it's a little scattered):

2018: Olof Lindbom
2015: Ryan Gropp
2014: Brandon Halverson
2012: Boo Nieves
2010: Christian Thomas
2009: Ethan Werek
2008: Derek Stepan
2007: Antoint Lafleur
2006: Artem Anisimov
2005: Marc-Andre Cliche, Michael Sauer
2006: Brandon Dubinsky
2004: Bruce Graham, Dane Byers, Darin Olver
2003: Ivan Baranka
2002: Lee Falardeau
2001: Fedor Tyutin
2000: Filip Novak

Since 2000, the Rangers have drafted 19 players in the second round. 7 have had relatively decent NHL careers (I think I'm being generous by adding Sauer and Nieves). That's 36%. Lindbom, Gropp and Halverson still have shots, so even if you add them, that's 52%.

How many of you even know half of these names?

We got a legit prospect with top-4 upside for a lottery ticket that with pretty shitty odds. I mean, it's not powerball, but the odds of drafting a prospect that will even become half of what Fox is now is pretty slim.

 

[nyr2k2]

A higher bar to clear I'm talking about players who are impact NHL'ers or are held in high regard in terms of their future value. The 2015 2nd round alone featured players such as:

Fischer, Dermott, Aho, Carlo, Blackwood, Cernak, Hintz, Greenway, Dunn and R. Andersson.

While Debrincat, Hart and Girard were the following year. So yes there is value to be had in the 2nd round but unfortunately Clark has shown no reason to trust that he can find it.

Yeah, I totally agree. Just noting for some other posters that those 20%-40% "success" numbers include plenty of guys like Boo. So if someone is thinking we're likely to grab a couple quality NHL players with the two seconds, even if they're high second, the odds are strongly against it.

 

[JT Kreider]

Let's, in a vacuum, look some of the Rangers recent second round picks (we haven't picked a ton in recent years, so it's a little scattered):

2018: Olof Lindbom
2015: Ryan Gropp
2014: Brandon Halverson
2012: Boo Nieves
2010: Christian Thomas
2009: Ethan Werek
2008: Derek Stepan
2007: Antoint Lafleur
2006: Artem Anisimov
2005: Marc-Andre Cliche, Michael Sauer
2006: Brandon Dubinsky
2004: Bruce Graham, Dane Byers, Darin Olver
2003: Ivan Baranka
2002: Lee Falardeau
2001: Fedor Tyutin
2000: Filip Novak

Since 2000, the Rangers have drafted 19 players in the second round. 7 have had relatively decent NHL careers (I think I'm being generous by adding Sauer and Nieves). That's 36%. Lindbom, Gropp and Halverson still have shots, so even if you add them, that's 52%.

How many of you even know half of these names?

We got a legit prospect with top-4 upside for a lottery ticket that with pretty ****ty odds. I mean, it's not powerball, but the odds of drafting a prospect that will even become half of what Fox is now is pretty slim.

Yep. The pick at this point was put to far better use than it would be in our own hands come draft weekend.

And it is safe to write off Gropp by now. He will be 23 when next season starts and by that point there is no more upside.

 

[SingnBluesOnBroadway]

We got a legit prospect with top-4 upside for a lottery ticket that with pretty ****ty odds. I mean, it's not powerball, but the odds of drafting a prospect that will even become half of what Fox is now is pretty slim.

He is also a guy who is a better prospect now than he was when he was picked in the 3rd round....

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Higher picks do NOT mean higher potential. Draftees are not judged by their ceiling alone. In fact, the floor is more important to GMs than ceilings because no GM ever got fired for taking a role player. Neil Smith survived drafting More, Sundstrom and Malhotra with top-10 picks, but the Brendl failure, albeit among others, was a major reason for his firing.

If you review past drafts, guys drafted in the 7-12 range tend to wind up 3rd liners or at least middle-6. There are very few of them who become stars. In the teens, you suddenly see Hossa, Karlsson, etc. Why? Because by that point, safe guys are gone, and if you're choosing among lottery tickets, may as well choose the one with the biggest upside.

That's why Lias was universally ranked above Chytil. That's why to draft high potential in Kravtsov, the Rangers had to "reach" for a guy few viewed as top-10.

You are the master in misreading and misquoting shit. Bravo. You did it again.

Higher picks are indeed players with higher potential. You can't use hindsight and say "Oh they weren't higher upside uhuhuhu". It doesn't work that way. Everyone is a HHOF general manager with the knowledge of hindsight. Teams move up in the draft to pick players with higher potential

 

[Amazing Kreiderman]

Because it really should affect the price, common sense.

But it hasn't in the past, so why should it now?

 

[nyr2k2]

Let's, in a vacuum, look some of the Rangers recent second round picks (we haven't picked a ton in recent years, so it's a little scattered):

2018: Olof Lindbom
2015: Ryan Gropp
2014: Brandon Halverson
2012: Boo Nieves
2010: Christian Thomas
2009: Ethan Werek
2008: Derek Stepan
2007: Antoint Lafleur
2006: Artem Anisimov
2005: Marc-Andre Cliche, Michael Sauer
2006: Brandon Dubinsky
2004: Bruce Graham, Dane Byers, Darin Olver
2003: Ivan Baranka
2002: Lee Falardeau
2001: Fedor Tyutin
2000: Filip Novak

Since 2000, the Rangers have drafted 19 players in the second round. 7 have had relatively decent NHL careers (I think I'm being generous by adding Sauer and Nieves). That's 36%. Lindbom, Gropp and Halverson still have shots, so even if you add them, that's 52%.

How many of you even know half of these names?

We got a legit prospect with top-4 upside for a lottery ticket that with pretty ****ty odds. I mean, it's not powerball, but the odds of drafting a prospect that will even become half of what Fox is now is pretty slim.

Yeah, and Thomas, Werek, LaFleur, Graham, Olver, Byers, and Falardeau were hard busts. That's 7 of the 18--the same amount as those who made it (I also think you're being generous with MA Cliche, who sucked and I don't think is was good as Boo is). I suspect we'll be adding Halverson and Gropp to the bust list as well. I mean most of these guys didn't even play for us. Baranka and Novak could be considered busts as well, but they left to play overseas before getting to that point.

The numbers for ALL teams demonstrate that the second round does not yield a lot of good, career NHL players. Looking at our list, we're probably close to average. I'm not arguing that second round picks are without value, but if you can use two of them (maybe two of them) to get a guy like Fox you do it, every day.

 

[Beacon]

Higher picks are indeed players with higher potential. You can't use hindsight and say "Oh they weren't higher upside uhuhuhu".

Yeah, really bad job reading what I wrote. I didnt say player X was followed by players A, B and C who turned out better. I'm telling you that on the draft day, GMs know it. For ex, no doubt Gorts knew on the draft day that Lias has limited potential, definitely less than Chytil. It wasn't just luck that it worked out that way, it was known from the start.

But Lias (and Malhotra, Sundstrom, More, etc) was also a player with a high enough floor that he wouldn't embarrass the GM, which is why GMs draft safe, high floor / low ceiling guys before high risk, high return

 

[Thirty One]

Antoine Lafleur lol

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Yeah, and Thomas, Werek, LaFleur, Graham, Olver, Byers, and Falardeau were hard busts. That's 7 of the 18--the same amount as those who made it (I also think you're being generous with MA Cliche, who sucked and I don't think is was good as Boo is). I suspect we'll be adding Halverson and Gropp to the bust list as well. I mean most of these guys didn't even play for us. Baranka and Novak could be considered busts as well, but they left to play overseas before getting to that point.

The numbers for ALL teams demonstrate that the second round does not yield a lot of good, career NHL players. Looking at our list, we're probably close to average. I'm not arguing that second round picks are without value, but if you can use two of them (maybe two of them) to get a guy like Fox you do it, every day.

I agree with everything you said. Just want to add that I was being as generous as possible so not to hear someone come back with 'well Gropp might still make it!' or 'Cliche played 150 games!'.

I don't see how you can look at that list and think we made the wrong decision. It is quite obvious that Fox has a much better chance to be an impact player for us than whatever dude we drafted @37.

 

[nyr2k2]

Antoine Lafleur lol

Dude was so terrible, he played two seasons in the Q post-draft and then retired. Not even to go play Canadian college or anything, just f***ing quit.

But Benny loved him!

 

[Jaromir Jagr]

Antoine Lafleur lol

I hope the guy has Google Alerts set to his name and gets his first notification in like 7 years because of us.

 

[nyr2k2]

I agree with everything you said. Just want to add that I was being as generous as possible so not to hear someone come back with 'well Gropp might still make it!' or 'Cliche played 150 games!'.

I don't see how you can look at that list and think we made the wrong decision. It is quite obvious that Fox has a much better chance to be an impact player for us than whatever dude we drafted @37.

Yup, agreed across the board.

 

[cwede]

Thomas, Werek, LaFleur, Graham, Olver, Byers, and Falardeau were hard busts

Werek wasn't a complete bust for NYR though, turned him into Lindberg, who got NYR through expansion draft without losing a more important piece