Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XXIX

[AlexModvechkin8]

It's hard to fathom the desire of this fanbase to jettison talented players. We've gotten markedly worse since we've started doing this - yet some want to continue. Baffling.

It's hard to fathom how you can't see the difference between jettisoning talented players for nothing as we've done and trading a piece of our underachieving corps to address the weakest part of our team. Baffling.

 

[Liberati0n*]

Brian23,

Where did I say that was the only move to be made? I agree other moves are needed on defense.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I don't believe that. When he became a free agent there was not a single NHL team willing to put a long term deal on the table for him without a paycut attached. not one.
So, trading him would have brought back maybe what ribeiro brought back.

And would this team be better with Cody Eakin at 3C + another 2nd rounder or a whole lot of nothing like we got for Semin?

 

[Brian23]

Brian23,

Where did I say that was the only move to be made? I agree other moves are needed on defense.

You didn't but you would have moved 3 very valuable pieces by that point (depends on how you or the league valued Schimdt and Carrick for the 4th piece) for a very negligible "upgrade". Instead you've opened up a hole needing a 1C while not even filling the need for another Top 2LD. You've also done so while potentially moving out good 3rd pairing RD and/or LD. And we couldn't even potentially recoup a C or a D for the future because we've unloaded our first for this year.

 

[Liberati0n*]

You didn't but you would have moved 3 very valuable pieces by that point (depends on how you or the league valued Schimdt and Carrick for the 4th piece) for a very negligible "upgrade". Instead you've opened up a hole needing a 1C while not even filling the need for another Top 2LD. You've also done so while potentially moving out good 3rd pairing RD and/or LD. And we couldn't even potentially recoup a C or a D for the future because we've unloaded our first for this year.

You realize Subban is a Norris-winner, right? I think you're severely undervaluing him. Maybe adding Schmidt or Carrick is overkill, but it certainly doesn't have a huge impact on the team in the short term. As BCF said, Plekanec is scoring as much as Backstrom at ES. If he replaces Backstrom's ES production and plays better defense, and Kuznetsov succeeds in his PP role, basically nothing has been lost and a more balanced team has been assembled.

 

[Brian23]

You realize Subban is a Norris-winner, right? I think you're severely undervaluing him. Maybe adding Schmidt or Carrick is overkill, but it certainly doesn't have a huge impact on the team in the short term. As BCF said, Plekanec is scoring as much as Backstrom at ES. If he replaces Backstrom's ES production and plays better defense, and Kuznetsov succeeds in his PP role, basically nothing has been lost and a more balanced team has been assembled.

No, I just value Carlson pretty highly as well. But my point remains, as good as he is, either he or Carlson will be asked to carry a line with no more trades. If you want to continue trades, what more can you unload that isn't one of our prospects? Trade where we have "Depth", move wingers before you move a center. Brouwer, Laich, Wilson, etc.

And again, one year does not make a player. If the top line hadn't had the worst SO% from people not named Ovi I've seen in ages, Backstrom would be out producing him easily.

 

[Liberati0n*]

No, I just value Carlson pretty highly as well. But my point remains, as good as he is, either he or Carlson will be asked to carry a line with no more trades. If you want to continue trades, what more can you unload that isn't one of our prospects? Trade where we have "Depth", move wingers before you move a center. Brouwer, Laich, Wilson, etc.

And again, one year does not make a player. If the top line hadn't had the worst SO% from people not named Ovi I've seen in ages, Backstrom would be out producing him easily.

Brouwer, Johansson, possibly Bowey or Barber in the right situation.

 

[Brian23]

Brouwer, Johansson, possibly Bowey or Barber in the right situation.

And I'm all over that. My only hold up in that trade was Backstrom because you're opening a bigger hole and something just as important (if not more so) then more D. Even if that's not bringing back the same return, though I doubt Subban would ever be traded.

 

[txpd]

Correct me if im wrong but it sure looks like you're arguing that blockbuster trades dont happen.

how did you get that? was it your perception that I stand for something and what I write must follow that narrative all the time?

what I said was...
a. poking holes in a suggested trade shouldn't require putting up your own trade suggestion first.

b. I put forward a reason why I had not suggested a trade by pointing out a kind of player I thought the caps needed and then showing the information I lacked to make an intelligent post on a trade.

c. I did suggest at some point that talking about a Backstrom trade was very likely an exercise with no real world application.

d. I did not post, but will here that the blockbuster trade is a fairly rare thing. one a season is a lot in the salary cap age. you can make a case that the Erat-Forsberg trade was a modern day blockbuster. those trades don't always go like you hoped. I am sure you have forgotten but I suggested last season that maybe trading Ovechkin might be a good idea. Blockbuster...yes? I was in favor of trading Alzner, Varly and a first for Pronger. Blockbuster....yes? That was a deal that was legit on the table and could have happened.

 

[txpd]

And would this team be better with Cody Eakin at 3C + another 2nd rounder or a whole lot of nothing like we got for Semin?

I don't know. that depends entire on the organEYEzation and the players handled missing the playoffs which trading Semin would very likely have created.
Would the Caps be better with Cody Eakin at 3c instead of having Grabovski?

 

[Mothra]

so the thing to do seems to be make historical analogies so here is mine....they need a hatcher/tinordi type move using 52

if he is so elite and such a rare player, as his supporters will tell us, then getting a decent return based around 52 and other assets should be doable. Getting a better all around player, specifically defensively, swapped for 52 makes this team better

 

[Mothra]

as for moving Backstrom, there is a very short list of players...none of which would be moved, that I would consider. That said id like to see more of what we saw in his first few playoffs next time he has the chance....he hasnt really wow'd much the last couple times and if memory serves was actually pretty bad a couple games

 

[txpd]

so the thing to do seems to be make historical analogies so here is mine....they need a hatcher/tinordi type move using 52

if he is so elite and such a rare player, as his supporters will tell us, then getting a decent return based around 52 and other assets should be doable. Getting a better all around player, specifically defensively, swapped for 52 makes this team better

a. as he's been replaced by a player that no one considers an elite pp player, making the elite argument hard. more likely its the change of scenery/coaching gives him a chance to get it back argument.

b. one season and then ufa doesn't help the return.

c. most teams are not so deep in top 4/top 2 defensemen that getting a defenseman ready to step into that role is likely. its more likely a two move situation. green out in one move and a replacement defense first player coming in with a second move. or a ufa signing using the created cap space.

can you think of a shutdown/physical d first dman that might be available either thru a trade or ufa? I cant. all I come up with is orpik who seems to be on the decline and a short term fix at best.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't know. that depends entire on the organEYEzation and the players handled missing the playoffs which trading Semin would very likely have created.
Would the Caps be better with Cody Eakin at 3c instead of having Grabovski?

Always the missing the playoffs nonsense when trading your boy Semin comes up.

A good GM wouldn't have let it get to that point, end of story.

Erat/Forsberg was a blockbuster? modern day or not, more nonsense.

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

d. I did not post, but will here that the blockbuster trade is a fairly rare thing. one a season is a lot in the salary cap age. you can make a case that the Erat-Forsberg trade was a modern day blockbuster. those trades don't always go like you hoped. I am sure you have forgotten but I suggested last season that maybe trading Ovechkin might be a good idea. Blockbuster...yes? I was in favor of trading Alzner, Varly and a first for Pronger. Blockbuster....yes? That was a deal that was legit on the table and could have happened.

Pittsburgh acquired a young 25 goal scorer and a young 27 goal scorer. Boston traded away a young 36 goal scorer and just acquired a 40 goal scorer. St. Louis just traded away a #1 overall draft pick. LA traded for a 30 goal scorer and a 40 goal scorer.

That's a lot of contenders and Cup winners who made blockbuster trades. They're not all that rare. Especially among great teams.

 

[Mothra]

a. as he's been replaced by a player that no one considers an elite pp player, making the elite argument hard. more likely its the change of scenery/coaching gives him a chance to get it back argument.

b. one season and then ufa doesn't help the return.

c. most teams are not so deep in top 4/top 2 defensemen that getting a defenseman ready to step into that role is likely. its more likely a two move situation. green out in one move and a replacement defense first player coming in with a second move. or a ufa signing using the created cap space.

can you think of a shutdown/physical d first dman that might be available either thru a trade or ufa? I cant. all I come up with is orpik who seems to be on the decline and a short term fix at best.

I dont agree....getting, lets say a ready for NHL prospect and decent pick doesnt seem outlandish, something similar to Ribeiro for example. Especially if 52 is such a rare player

Thats fine...its a long off season, plenty of time to work that out. Not sure what your point is. If there isnt some direct hatcher/tinordi trade to be made the assets and flexibility should be there

every year players are moved that are surprising, to some degree. surely there will be more movement than the current slotted UFA's and usual suspects this off season

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

can you think of a shutdown/physical d first dman that might be available either thru a trade or ufa? I cant. all I come up with is orpik who seems to be on the decline and a short term fix at best.

Are you privy to the confidential trade lists that GM's circulate throughout the NHL? Neither are we. Just because you can't imagine it or haven't heard a name tossed around in the press doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Pittsburgh acquired a young 25 goal scorer and a young 27 goal scorer. Boston traded away a young 36 goal scorer and just acquired a 40 goal scorer. St. Louis just traded away a #1 overall draft pick. LA traded for a 30 goal scorer and a 40 goal scorer.

That's a lot of contenders and Cup winners who made blockbuster trades. They're not all that rare. Especially among great teams.

Yeah I don't get the reluctance to accept that some of the better teams have shaped/re-shaped their rosters through significant trades.

 

[txpd]

Always the missing the playoffs nonsense when trading your boy Semin comes up.

A good GM wouldn't have let it get to that point, end of story.

Erat/Forsberg was a blockbuster? modern day or not, more nonsense.

Semin was never "my boy". he was the second leading goal scorer on the team and he was the secondary scoring source that has been replaced by Brouwer. A clear step down.

so...tell me again, when would have traded semin?

 

[g00n]

Semin was never "my boy". he was the second leading goal scorer on the team and he was the secondary scoring source that has been replaced by Brouwer. A clear step down.

so...tell me again, when would have traded semin?

Not a big Brouwer apologist or fan but "clear step down" may be an opinion based on potential and finesse, but it's not what the stats say. Brouwer and Semin both have 21 goals this year, and Semin has 6 more assists. Other stats can be split between the two of them with +/- favoring Semin and shooting percentage favoring Brouwer, etc. so not worth arguing that stuff when the idea is that his offensive production HAS been replaced.

Granted, Brouwer has taken 72 games to get there while Semin has played in 58, but that's part of the issue.... reliability. For the same money you'd pay Semin to miss a bunch of games you have Ward and Brouwer doubling the stats and skating every night.

 

[Mothra]

Semin was never "my boy". he was the second leading goal scorer on the team and he was the secondary scoring source that has been replaced by Brouwer. A clear step down.

so...tell me again, when would have traded semin?

let me jump in here and point out that in the time Semin has been with the Canes, Brouwer has more goals

that said I would not have traded Semin and always thought he was criticized for what he wasnt, if that makes sense.

and in case this is asked a couple years from now about 52, trade now! I think im clear there...exactly like I was with 55 before he signed his extension. A prime example of not understanding what the vision is....a high flying team with that guy? Should have been moved the offseason after the MTL loss...was clear about that then.

 

[AlexModvechkin8]

I don't know. that depends entire on the organEYEzation and the players handled missing the playoffs which trading Semin would very likely have created.
Would the Caps be better with Cody Eakin at 3c instead of having Grabovski?

Grabo is our 2C. He played sparingly as the 3C while he was adjusting to "the system."

If they had Eakin, maybe they use the cap space to sign someone else other than Grabovski. Maybe they sign a defenseman.

I think you're being short sighted when it comes to asset management. And no, I'm not saying "sell high" with every player. I'm saying don't let assets that could net you a return (Semin, Ribeiro, etc) walk for free if you can't/don't want to come to a long term solution only to then have to use additional cap space or assets to fill said holes.

I see it potentially happening with Green as well.

 

[Liberati0n*]

Not a big Brouwer apologist or fan but "clear step down" may be an opinion based on potential and finesse, but it's not what the stats say. Brouwer and Semin both have 21 goals this year, and Semin has 6 more assists. Other stats can be split between the two of them with +/- favoring Semin and shooting percentage favoring Brouwer, etc. so not worth arguing that stuff when the idea is that his offensive production HAS been replaced.

Granted, Brouwer has taken 72 games to get there while Semin has played in 58, but that's part of the issue.... reliability. For the same money you'd pay Semin to miss a bunch of games you have Ward and Brouwer doubling the stats and skating every night.

One of them drives play, can make game-breaking plays on his own, and so on. Semin can pull an entire line down the ice with him whereas Brouwer needs very much to be pulled by such a player. He can score when given the opportunities, but he needs them to be given to him. Semin is the one creating those for other players. "Clear step down" doesn't even close to say it. The argument you could make is that Semin is overpaid (he is, but not as much as haters say he is) and Brouwer therefore isn't a "step down" in terms of value relative to his contract, but to argue they're anywhere near each other as players is crazy. Semin is fundamentally in a different universe and his impact on the game is much broader.

Edit: Related, it's wrong to say Brouwer was Semin's replacement. He was maybe asked to replace secondary scoring, but Semin's replacement in terms of carrying the second line was Ribeiro.

 

[Vladiator16*]

One of them drives play, can make game-breaking plays on his own, and so on. Semin can pull an entire line down the ice with him whereas Brouwer needs very much to be pulled by such a player. He can score when given the opportunities, but he needs them to be given to him. Semin is the one creating those for other players. "Clear step down" doesn't even close to say it. The argument you could make is that Semin is overpaid (he is, but not as much as haters say he is) and Brouwer therefore isn't a "step down" in terms of value relative to his contract, but to argue they're anywhere near each other as players is crazy. Semin is fundamentally in a different universe and his impact on the game is much broader.

Edit: Related, it's wrong to say Brouwer was Semin's replacement. He was maybe asked to replace secondary scoring, but Semin's replacement in terms of carrying the second line was Ribeiro.

I completely agree with your analysis on both players, with one more addition on Semin - when he wants to (at least while he was in DC).

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Semin was never "my boy". he was the second leading goal scorer on the team and he was the secondary scoring source that has been replaced by Brouwer. A clear step down.

so...tell me again, when would have traded semin?

Simple. During the 2010-2011 season. The team made it clear that they weren't looking at him as a long-term team member and he made it clear he was looking for more term/$.

Does the 20g, 40-something points a year the last two season seem too insurmountable for the Caps to have replaced? The production has been replaced, the skillset has not. That's a McFailure issue. Semin was last a PPG player almost 4 seasons ago and last cracked the 30g mark going on 5 seasons ago. For $7 mil a year, I want more and rightfully so.