Speculation: Acq/ Rost. Bldg./ Cap Part XIX

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Ryan Miller's save percentage rank, by year:

2005-06: 9 (tie)
2006-07: 15 (tie)
2007-08: 29 (tie)
2008-09: 8
2009-10: 2
2010-11: 17 (tie)
2011-12: 19 (tie)
2012-13: 23 (tie)

Average rank: 15.25

But hey, by all means, if you want older, more expensive, average players. Have at it.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Not gross at all. Who's more overrated?

For someone considered by many to be a top goalie in the league, he's had one season (of 7) with a save percentage north of .920.

I'd start with our very own Holtby being grossly overrated coming into the season, but that's me.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Ryan Miller's save percentage rank, by year:

2005-06: 9 (tie)
2006-07: 15 (tie)
2007-08: 29 (tie)
2008-09: 8
2009-10: 2
2010-11: 17 (tie)
2011-12: 19 (tie)
2012-13: 23 (tie)

But hey, by all means, if you want older, more expensive, average players. Have at it.

As opposed to cheaper, crappier players...got it.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

As opposed to cheaper, crappier players...got it.

Holtby being crappier is a shaky stance to take, at best, especially when their save percentages are .001 apart in similar situations.

And yes, the "cheaper, crappier players" are preferable when you take into consideration the price it would take to acquire someone like Miller, and how much his cap hit would hamstring any other moves the Caps could make.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Caps aren't making any landmark moves as you would have us all imagine.

Can't be hamstrung by what doesn't exist.

 

[Ovechkins Wodka]

In new salary cap NHL it's really not the great to have 5mill plus goalie. That's why you see guys like loungo and miller being shopped. I'll take holtby at 1m and spend 5 on a skater day.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Caps aren't making any landmark moves as you would have us all imagine.

Can't be hamstrung by what doesn't exist.

Acquiring Miller (assuming Holtby's going the other way), bringing back Hendricks an Fehr, qualifying Kundratek and Johansson, and extending Alzner at $3M/year gives the Caps about $3M in cap space to work with.

You'll note that that scenario doesn't include Ribeiro, since there'd be absolutely no way to bring him back with Miller in the fold.

So yeah, nothing to do with landmark moves. It would prevent the Caps from filling any significant holes. No 2C. No top-4 LD. No scoring winger without moving salary out.

Miller's worth that?

 

[Halpysback*]

Luongo is 5x the goalie Miller is and no one here wants to touch him with a 10 foot pole.

Captain Merica blinders on full display.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

You see guys like Miller and Lungo shopped because of the good young guys ready to be starters behind them AND their cost. Without that young player being ready, they wouldn't be on the market.

Would I prefer to pay a goalie north of $5-6 mil a season? Hell no. Would the Caps benefit from the upgrade to a Luongo (who I've suggested in the past)? Hell YES.

if you're a defensive/coin flip team, averaging a soft goal a game kills you.

 

[BobRouse]

So he's a goalie version of Laich and Brouwer?

Miller is in a league of his own with his dumbazzery. He says some of the stupidest things ever.

Brouwer is like Miller-lite but he does back it up on the ice with some scoring and bringing a consistent physical game.

Laich does talk but nothing inflammatory for the most part or blatently stupid.

Come on...no where to go but up? Like Jim Carey up?

Actually if you recall...Carey, Kolzig and Dafoe were all young promising goalies. Sorta like what we have now. The more you have the more chances one turns out to be your franchise goalie.

Carey and Kolzig both won a vezina and Dafoe was a solid NHL goalie.

Carey just didn't love the game and true he tanked. But thats the beauty of not putting all your eggs in one basket and waiting for them to hatch

You see guys like Miller and Lungo shopped because of the good young guys ready to be starters behind them AND their cost. Without that young player being ready, they wouldn't be on the market.

Would I prefer to pay a goalie north of $5-6 mil a season? Hell no. Would the Caps benefit from the upgrade to a Luongo (who I've suggested in the past)? Hell YES.

if you're a defensive/coin flip team, averaging a soft goal a game kills you.

You know at one point Luongo was a prospect...some great GM out there decided rather than letting him develop to go out for a new shiny toy.

All the goalies in the league were prospects at one point. You have to have patience with young players or you will be likened to Mike Milbury and his parade of impatient trades.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Acquiring Miller (assuming Holtby's going the other way), bringing back Hendricks an Fehr, qualifying Kundratek and Johansson, and extending Alzner at $3M/year gives the Caps about $3M in cap space to work with.

You'll note that that scenario doesn't include Ribeiro, since there'd be absolutely no way to bring him back with Miller in the fold.

So yeah, nothing to do with landmark moves. It would prevent the Caps from filling any significant holes. No 2C. No top-4 LD. No scoring winger without moving salary out.

Miller's worth that?

Ribeiro isn't going to be here anyway. People better start accepting that.

Not sure why it's so hard to conceptualize multiple player moves to form the roster next season. You mentioned Fehr (who may have already priced himself out of DC) and Mojo and guy who could easily be moved out based upon a pathetic season so far. I could see the Caps stuffing him into that 2C role to replace Ribs. McPhee loves to "try our own"...

A simple redistribution of the $9 mil from Poti, Schultz and Hamrlik will help and there are other moves to be made beyond those if they're not enough.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Ribeiro isn't going to be here anyway. People better start accepting that.

Not sure why it's so hard to conceptualize multiple player moves to form the roster next season. You mentioned Fehr (who may have already priced himself out of DC) and Mojo and guy who could easily be moved out based upon a pathetic season so far. I could see the Caps stuffing him into that 2C role to replace Ribs. McPhee loves to "try our own"...

A simple redistribution of the $9 mil from Poti, Schultz and Hamrlik will help and there are other moves to be made beyond those if they're not enough.

Run the numbers yourself. Return everyone minus Ribeiro and don't bring in Miller, and there's upwards of $9M in cap space. Return everyone minus Ribeiro and bring in Miller, and it's $3M.

Fehr has very little effect on those numbers, since I had him at the $600K he's on now. Any roster replacement would be at least that much. But bring him back with a raise, and the cap space gets even smaller. Without Miller, you can add significantly. With him you can't.

And there's still the whole thing with him being an average goalie. Considering his average save percentage rank over his career is 15.25, that's a pretty safe statement to make.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Actually if you recall...Carey, Kolzig and Dafoe were all young promising goalies. Sorta like what we have now. The more you have the more chances one turns out to be your franchise goalie.

Carey and Kolzig both won a vezina and Dafoe was a solid NHL goalie.

Carey just didn't love the game and true he tanked. But thats the beauty of not putting all your eggs in one basket and waiting for them to hatch



You know at one point Luongo was a prospect...some great GM out there decided rather than letting him develop to go out for a new shiny toy.

All the goalies in the league were prospects at one point. You have to have patience with young players or you will be likened to Mike Milbury and his parade of impatient trades.

I'm suggesting platooning Holtby with a Lungo or Miller, not ditching him. Give the guy a mentor. Something the Caps don't believe in apparently....thus their amazing player development path and history.

I'm all for patience, but this team has a window (or rather had one) and patience and the wrong moves have lead us to where we are today. If you're suggesting we just continue to be a cellar dweller, then by all means, stick with average, inexperience goalies. They've done us well so far.


Good thing the Bruins didn't take Kolzig instead as he was offered.

 

[Capsman]

I don't understand this argument. Does anyone believe we are a Miller or Luongo away from a SC championship? That is a Fat Albert'esque approach. Let out young goalies continue to develop and see what happens when our projected 2014-15 lineup comes to fruition. Who knows they may be as good or better than Miller/Luongo at a cheaper price. If not we will have the talent to make a trade.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Run the numbers yourself. Return everyone minus Ribeiro and don't bring in Miller, and there's upwards of $9M in cap space. Return everyone minus Ribeiro and bring in Miller, and it's $3M.

Fehr has very little effect on those numbers, since I had him at the $600K he's on now. Any roster replacement would be at least that much. But bring him back with a raise, and the cap space gets even smaller. Without Miller, you can add significantly. With him you can't.

And there's still the whole thing with him being an average goalie. Considering his average save percentage rank over his career is 15.25, that's a pretty safe statement to make.

And that's why you do that thing...I think they call them TRADES. But whatever, by all means, lets stick with the younger, cheaper underperforming guys and tank a few more seasons so Ovechkin requests a trade.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

You want a mentor, sign Backstrom. He's been at least as good as Miller, won't cost assets to acquire, and will come with a cheaper cap hit.

 

[BobRouse]

I'm suggesting platooning Holtby with a Lungo or Miller, not ditching him. Give the guy a mentor. Something the Caps don't believe in apparently....thus their amazing player development path and history.

I'm all for patience, but this team has a window (or rather had one) and patience and the wrong moves have lead us to where we are today. If you're suggesting we just continue to be a cellar dweller, then by all means, stick with average, inexperience goalies. They've done us well so far.


Good thing the Bruins didn't take Kolzig instead as he was offered.

Yeah that would have been horrible re: Kolzig.

Platooning is fine but you will create a MESS with what you suggest. Luongo and Miller are not the type of "platooning" goalies you want. Getting a vet can alot of times undermine the confidence of a young goalie (Vokoun / Neuvirth).

Miller and Luongo would create a huge distraction and are signed for a million years.

No..what you want is to expedite the process and go get a high price name goalie to take over and be the starter for the forseeable future.

Thats what I call impatient. Holtby won't develop playing 15-20 games a year.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

And that's why you do that thing...I think they call them TRADES. But whatever, by all means, lets stick with the younger, cheaper underperforming guys and tank a few more seasons so Ovechkin requests a trade.

If you're considering two players, both underperforming, why on Earth wouldn't you want the younger, cheaper one who has some upside, rather than the older, overpaid one?

You can do more of those things they call TRADES if you don't acquire the older, massively overpaid underperformer.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

3 years ago I'd have been OK with a Backstrom signing. He's 35 now. This team needs less vets who come in for 1-2 years and vanish and more core guys to build around.

 

[Maryland17]

Backstrom/Ovechkin vs. Getzlaf/Perry

Since Perry and Getzlaf both resigned with ANA, what tandem would you rather have for next 8 years?

Backstrom at 25 yo and Ovechkin at 27 yo - Cap Hit - 16.25

or

Getzlaf at 27 yo and Perry at 27 yo - Cap Hit - 16.8

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Miller's 33 in July, with 130 more games in his career than Backstrom. He's got more wear on his tires. He'd also vanish in one year when his contract is up.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

If you're considering two players, both underperforming, why on Earth wouldn't you want the younger, cheaper one who has some upside, rather than the older, overpaid one?

You can do more of those things they call TRADES if you don't acquire the older, massively overpaid underperformer.

Miller has 1 year left....it's not the end of the salary cap world. Stop trying to make it out to be some deathblow to all our offseason moves. You know, the imaginary ones McPhee rarely makes.

 

[NobodyBeatsTheWiz]

Miller has 1 year left....it's not the end of the salary cap world. Stop trying to make it out to be some deathblow to all our offseason moves. You know, the imaginary ones McPhee rarely makes.

Your making the same assumption that there'd be these 'imaginary' moves made.

If you get Miller, you don't even have the option to significantly improve this ****** team without significant movement out, which is more unlikely than bringing FA salary in.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

No, I'm suggesting that a GOOD GM, COULD make the necessary moves and not be hamstrung like you're suggesting.

I think a front line starter WOULD improve this team quite a bit.

 

[ChibiPooky]

I'm against bringing in a clear starting goaltender, but I'd be OK with a solid veteran to play maybe 30 games. Dan Ellis comes to mind, has a current cap hit under $1M, and is UFA this summer.