Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

[Alexander the Gr8]

Citation is needed for this.

Yep. I've seen Kuzy turn guys like Duncan Keith or Marc-Edouard Vlasic inside out. These guys are the best of the best defensively and Kuzy made them look like traffic cones.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Are we suggesting when paired with Ovy, Kuzy is always producing at an elite level an no D pair has ever neutralized him? Seems unlikely.

 

[Coldplay619]

Our record over the last two playoff series against the Penguins when Ovechkin and Backstrom were together was 2-6, and when apart 3-2.

I don't understand the aversion to splitting them up.

Not only does it create match-up problems but it also gives our franchise players a 40 minute window to work with every game instead the 20 minutes they get when they play on the same line.

That's a big reason why Chicago and Pittsburgh have had so much success.

Kane/Toews and Malkin/Crosby are on the ice for two thirds of every game.

In some seasons the option to split them up wasn't there because either we didn't a legitimate 2C option or if we did (Ribeiro or Grabovski) it then meant that we didn't have a legitimate wing man for Backstrom.

I have nightmares thinking about the Laich-Backstrom-Brouwer line Oates rolled out.

But the option has been there over the last few years with the great job GMBM has done filling out the roster and Kuznetsov's emergence as a top centre.

Yet still they're joint at the hip, despite there being better options available for both of them.

Here's a great article on the Kuznetsov and Ovechkin combo:

with Kuznetsov, Ovechkin’s shooting percentage goes from 8.5% to 12.1%.

That’s a huge jump, especially for a player who can shoot a ton like Ovechkin. That 12.1% would have given Ovechkin 23 5-on-5 goals last season, nine more than what he actually scored.

The great thing is that Kuznetsov doesn’t just improve Ovechkin’s shooting percentage but also his shot totals. When playing with Kuznetsov, Ovechkin has one shot every 4.2 minutes of playing time at even strength. With Backstrom, it’s one shot every 6.4 minutes. That’s a difference between 9.3 shots per 60 minutes and 14.2 shots per 60 minutes. That may seem small, but it pays dividends over a whole season.

https://novacapsfans.com/2017/08/14/how-to-get-alex-ovechkin-to-40-50-goals-again/#more-113256

 

[twabby]

Are we suggesting when paired with Ovy, Kuzy is always producing at an elite level an no D pair has ever neutralized him? Seems unlikely.

It's more rejecting the idea that Kuznetsov can't be effective against the opposition's best when there's no real evidence to suggest that's true.

Also as Coldplay noted above Ovechkin has simply been better alongside Kuznetsov than Backstrom. It's not a slight on Backstrom, they just seem to play a different game nowadays.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

It's more rejecting the idea that Kuznetsov can't be effective against the opposition's best when there's no real evidence to suggest that's true.

Also as Coldplay noted above Ovechkin has simply been better alongside Kuznetsov than Backstrom. It's not a slight on Backstrom, they just seem to play a different game nowadays.

Look at the game logs when he's paired with Ovy. If he and his line mates didn't produce, there's evidence they were rendered ineffective.

Now I'll be the first to admit I'm not chasing that data, just speculating that there have been some of D pairs who kept them off the board.

I really don't care who plays with who. It's the coach's decision. I have no aversions to anything myself. All I know is 92 better put up a minimum of 25/75 this season and every season going forward assuming healthy.

 

[lakai17]

Where does Connolly fit in the line-up?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Look at the game logs when he's paired with Ovy. If he and his line mates didn't produce, there's evidence they were rendered ineffective.

Now I'll be the first to admit I'm not chasing that data, just speculating that there have been some of D pairs who kept them off the board.

I really don't care who plays with who. It's the coach's decision. I have no aversions to anything myself. All I know is 92 better put up a minimum of 25/75 this season and every season going forward assuming healthy.

A lot of lines are useless if they don't produce. They're not shut down players. Anyone can be shutdown. I don't expect Kuzy to win all the matchups and be on the board every night.

Where does Connolly fit in the line-up?

Connolly should be on the 3rd line with the likes of Eller, Vrana or Wilson.

 

[Coldplay619]

Kuzy is 4th in EV strength production over the last two years.

His numbers should rise with more PP time.

I've been thinking about lineups a lot this summer, I'd probably go with something like this to start:

65-19-43
8-92-77
13-20-10
12-83-18

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I expect hm to win the matchup and be on the scoreboards most nights. Why pay a guy that $ if your expectations are low? The notion that nobody has or can shut him down is just silly IMO.

 

[g00n]

Kuzy is 4th in EV strength production over the last two years.

His numbers should rise with more PP time.

I've been thinking about lineups a lot this summer, I'd probably go with something like this to start:

65-19-43
8-92-77
13-20-10
12-83-18

$23M second line... I'm not so sure. If those 3 are together they're getting the most ice time which puts them on the top line.

 

[Coldplay619]

$23M second line... I'm not so sure. If those 3 are together they're getting the most ice time which puts them on the top line.

Sure.

Nicky will get his PP time too so it all evens out.

All I know is that I never want to see 8-19-77 again.

8-19 and something works, just as 19-77 does.

 

[um]

Ovechkin and Backstrom are to slow to be kept together, I'd like if every line had speed and 8-19-77 had very little.

65-19-77
8-92-43
10-20-13
??-83-??

not a huge fan of Wilson in the top 6 but he fits that line well and his defense is needed.

 

[Coldplay619]

Ovechkin and Backstrom are to slow to be kept together, I'd like if every line had speed and 8-19-77 had very little.

65-19-77
8-92-43
10-20-13
??-83-??

Yeah, that's another combo I'd be fine with.

8-92-43 showed some chemistry in the two games they played together last season, and 65-19-77 were great in the playoffs last year.

Will probably need to pick up a top-six winger at the deadline though.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

I expect hm to win the matchup and be on the scoreboards most nights. Why pay a guy that $ if your expectations are low? The notion that nobody has or can shut him down is just silly IMO.

He's going to be on the scoreboard most nights but he won't win the matchup most nights. Backstrom who is super good and a top 5 center in the game doesn't always win his matchups. Kuzy is a low end #1C, which means that any #1C in the league is good enough to win a matchup against him, and a few #2Cs could do it too.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

He's going to be on the scoreboard most nights but he won't win the matchup most nights. Backstrom who is super good and a top 5 center in the game doesn't always win his matchups. Kuzy is a low end #1C, which means that any #1C in the league is good enough to win a matchup against him, and a few #2Cs could do it too.

If he's not winning the matchup most nights, he's going to be underwhelming and over-criticized. Hope you're wrong there.

I expect Kuzy to develop into a top-10 1C at a minimum at his cost.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

If he's not winning the matchup most nights, he's going to be underwhelming and over-criticized. Hope you're wrong there.

I expect Kuzy to develop into a top-10 1C at a minimum at his cost.

He's a top 10 C by salary right now but two years from now, he'll be paid like the top 20 C that he is.

Kuzy will get criticised for sure. The bar is too high at the moment.

 

[hockeykicker]

if anyone cares

 

[txpd]

Citation is needed for this.

you can not seriously be suggesting that the best shutdown defense pairs are ineffective against the elite talent they are matched against in every game they play?

Its not a knock against Kuznetsov. If opposing coaches were stupid enough to regularly put 2nd pair coverage defensemen against Ov, he would eat them alive.
This is not even to mention the defensive line coverage and that fact that each team game plans Ov while giving far less attention in the RS elsewhere.

There is the other fact that Ov is the featured player on his line. Playing center for him is a supporting role position. Kuznetsov should be the featured player on his line. The go to player there. Let somebody else be supporting player for him.

Backstrom does not want to be the featured player. We all know that. He is very content to let Ov and Oshie get the attention. Move Backstrom to the 2 and you force him to become that featured player that carries the line. That is not his strong suit. Never has been.

 

[txpd]

Kuzy will get criticised for sure. The bar is too high at the moment.

The bar is not too high. He has shown the ability to play 40-50 game chunks of seasons as a 70-80pt player. He is adding 1pp minutes now which should bring him a points boost.

season before last Kuzy lead the team in points even after going dark the last quarter of the season. I see no reason why he should score at or near a point per game this season.

My view is that I would like to See Ov with Backstrom and Wilson and Kuzy with Burt and Oshie. Wilson will provide space for Ov. Backstrom will provide Wilson opportunity to establish a scoring game. At the same time Ovechkin and Wilson are pounding the opposing 1d pair. Meanwhile If Burt breaks out, Kuzy and Oshie create what should be the equal of any 1st line in the league.

 

[twabby]

you can not seriously be suggesting that the best shutdown defense pairs are ineffective against the elite talent they are matched against in every game they play?

Its not a knock against Kuznetsov. If opposing coaches were stupid enough to regularly put 2nd pair coverage defensemen against Ov, he would eat them alive.
This is not even to mention the defensive line coverage and that fact that each team game plans Ov while giving far less attention in the RS elsewhere.

There is the other fact that Ov is the featured player on his line. Playing center for him is a supporting role position. Kuznetsov should be the featured player on his line. The go to player there. Let somebody else be supporting player for him.

Backstrom does not want to be the featured player. We all know that. He is very content to let Ov and Oshie get the attention. Move Backstrom to the 2 and you force him to become that featured player that carries the line. That is not his strong suit. Never has been.

I'm sure top pairs will be more effective than second pairs against Kuznetsov, but that would be true against any player. It's a matter of how much less effective Kuznetsov would be against these top pairs that I think is an open question. From your comments you seemed to think his game would be completely taken away from him which I don't agree with. He's a good player whose game is still improving and IMO he's still going to perform even if his QoC is elevated. Besides, given Ovechkin might be seeing a steep decline it's not really a stretch to think that 8-92-X would see second line ES minutes regardless.

I also don't really agree with your assessment about players being the featured players on their lines. They should just optimize their lines without using preconceived notions such as some unbreakable chemistry between 8 and 19, or that 92 has to be the featured player on his line, or that 19 shouldn't be the featured player on his line because he doesn't want to be. The fact is Backstrom is probably their best forward and if he doesn't want to be the featured player on a line then maybe there is something wrong. He should be willing and able to carry a line on his own. He's a very good shooter in his own right and maybe it'd do him good to stop being so deferential to Ovechkin at even strength, for instance.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

you can not seriously be suggesting that the best shutdown defense pairs are ineffective against the elite talent they are matched against in every game they play?

Its not a knock against Kuznetsov. If opposing coaches were stupid enough to regularly put 2nd pair coverage defensemen against Ov, he would eat them alive.
This is not even to mention the defensive line coverage and that fact that each team game plans Ov while giving far less attention in the RS elsewhere.

There is the other fact that Ov is the featured player on his line. Playing center for him is a supporting role position. Kuznetsov should be the featured player on his line. The go to player there. Let somebody else be supporting player for him.

Backstrom does not want to be the featured player. We all know that. He is very content to let Ov and Oshie get the attention. Move Backstrom to the 2 and you force him to become that featured player that carries the line. That is not his strong suit. Never has been.

He can carry a line and he'll have to do it if we want to spread out the scoring. He's the best player on the team, he's got to accept the fact that the forward core no longer hinges on Ovechkin. #8 can't carry the top line at this point, but either one of #19 or #92 could do it.

 

[John Price]

Weird seeing him skate like a regular position player without the goalie pads or the mask

 

[Caps8112]

Kuzy is 4th in EV strength production over the last two years.

His numbers should rise with more PP time.

I've been thinking about lineups a lot this summer, I'd probably go with something like this to start:

65-19-43
8-92-77
13-20-10
12-83-18

whose this? better be someone worthy?

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Weird seeing him skate like a regular position player without the goalie pads or the mask

He's wearing Burakovsky's helmet, using Johansson/Backstrom/Kuznetsov gloves and the stick looks like Schmidt's. Interesting combo.

 

[twabby]

Moving Holtby to wing to bolster forward depth and making Grubauer the new #1 goalie is exactly the kind of outside-the-box thinking the Capitals need.