Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXIV -- The Doggiest Days (Woof!) 2017

[twabby]

Thats your slant.

I think its GMBM saying "We have one year left w Barry, lets give him who he wants and see what happens. If it fails, we have our core tied up, I can much more easily get rid of one year of Orpik than 2, and i can use his monies to resign Carlson and go from there, with our core locked up and a new coach (Rierdon) given a chance to see what we can do"

Buying out Orpik now means they should have fired Trotz now. They didnt. Get over it.

They should have fired Trotz IMO. He clearly isn't on the same page as the players when it comes to their past, on top of the obvious lack of Xs and Os come playoff time. So yes, they should have fired him and bought out Orpik.

Not buying Orpik out meant losing Johansson AND Schmidt this offseason. Given the figures Orlov and Kuznetsov came in at it looks like Johansson likely was gone either way, but they still could have chosen to keep Schmidt at the expense of Orpik. As I mentioned earlier they would have had nearly $4.5M in cap space to sign Schmidt and surely he will not come in over that figure.

Unless you think Orpik provides more value than Schmidt now, it was a boneheaded decision in both the short and long-term.

 

[Stewie G]

It's not steep when you consider what Schmidt brings both now to this as a semi contending team and in the future as a rebuilding team. They've pretty much slammed the door on contending shut by losing Schmidt barring some absolutely miraculous out of the blue deal for a similar player.

From an pure asset management standpoint it absolutely is.

It also doesn't make sense to assign pick value to Grubauer in an expansion draft scenario where he's left unprotected. And it's obvious he doesn't have much value around the league beyond that right now.

Sure it does, if the point was to use Mojo as incentive to not draft Schmidt and take a lesser forward since most, if not all, of the other teams that traded with Vegas to not draft certain players ended up losing an asset with less value than Grubauer. He isn't going to fetch much RIGHT NOW due to the goaltender carousel being full, but based on previous deals around the league, I imagine his value at a minimum is a 2nd rounder. The goalie carousel isn't going to be full forever.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Buyout Orpik!

I miss Schmidt!


Same stuff different day. Lot's of warranted 2nd guessing of management and ownership. They did not handle this well. When Schmidt signs, we can see how or even if they could have worked the numbers to keep him if they didn't lose him. I'm not convinced the $ was there without the bad business decision of an Orpik buyout. Caps clearly place a lot of value on his leadership and locker room presence. Right or wrong. That must be maddening for those who don't believe or completely discount the value of intangibles.

 

[hockeykicker]

 

[g00n]

I just doubt very much that McPhee would do any favors for the team that fired him and the guy who replaced him. The ask was probably way too high and once Mojo was on the table word got out and the Caps were vulnerable to vultures, both in terms of GMs and agents.

 

[um]

LOL. the salary cap wouldnt have allowed the team to hold onto one of them, without waiving goodbye to Oshie (or someone else), or doing something stupid like having dead cap space (buy buying out Orpik).

Until we all see what Schmidt signs for, to "Woe is me we screwed ourselves by losing MaJo and Schmidt for NOTHING" excuse is crap.

We have zero cap space, Schmidt may sign for 3m a year. We probably couldnt have kept him no matter what!

Your math is off, Mojo + Wilson/Grubauer = 6.0 - 6.5 million. We could have easily afforded Schmidt.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

Championship (AHL)!

 

[henkenorrswede]

i dont Think Before the management of the club are willing to change captain
there will be any big Changes in attitude surrounding this team .

ONe thing is sure noone=team is interested taking on Ovechkins caphit ...
so a trade not going to happen.

But.
They need to change captains coz no matter how much love there is in this forum for ovechkin, lets face it !
Hes not a leader!
he doesnt make the players around him better!
His work ethic is poor and to have a captain that takes long shifts never huzzle back for a lineshift u are sending out the wrong signals to teammates.

Ovechkin is not even the number one guy on the team anymore thats Backstrom/Kuznetsov.
i give ovechkin one thing, he is an unique goalscorer but thats it and thats not good enough for being a teamcaptain.

New captain i say is Niklas Backstrom.
and forwards line are :havent considered if the play lw or rw.
Burakovsky-Backstrom-Oshie
Ovechkin-Kuznetsov-Wilson
Conolly-Eller-Smith-Pelly/vrana
Vrana/smith-pelly-Boyd/graovac-Beagle
its not a Deep forward pool and with injuries well Washington in trouble again ,,

Washington will have big problem to fill out a full roster coz of caps problems..

 

[Ridley Simon]

Your math is off, Mojo + Wilson/Grubauer = 6.0 - 6.5 million. We could have easily afforded Schmidt.

How so? MaJo is gone. Grubs is at 1.5m right now, and we have like 500k left of space. Schmidt would have needed to come in at 2m or under. I am not sure he will.

So maybe no Connolly (which is fine), but someone else would have had to have gone to fit a 2.5 or 3m a year Schmidt.

 

[Hivemind]

How so? MaJo is gone. Grubs is at 1.5m right now, and we have like 500k left of space. Schmidt would have needed to come in at 2m or under. I am not sure he will.

So maybe no Connolly (which is fine), but someone else would have had to have gone to fit a 2.5 or 3m a year Schmidt.

The someone else is whoever Vegas picks up in expansion (Wilson, Eller, Grubauer).

 

[Ridley Simon]

The someone else is whoever Vegas picks up in expansion (Wilson, Eller, Grubauer).

as stated, Grubauer would be gone. his 1.5m. Still would have been short, if Schmidt was coming in at 2.5m or higher. Someone else would need to go.

 

[Ridley Simon]

and imagine the outrage on this board if they had traded MaJo for nothing to Vegas to force them to take Wilson or Eller.

"We lost MaJo and Wilson(Eller) for nothing!!...GMBM is an imbecile!!! He could have let Vegas take just Schmidt and we'd still have our 2 top 9 forwards!!!"

There is no winning here. None.

 

[Hivemind]

In the terrible situation they backed themselves into by not planning ahead, agreed they weren't left with many good options. But teams like the Wild, Ducks, and Islanders were able to steer around troubled protection lists pretty effectively by engaging in dialogue with Vegas before the protection lists were due. That's the problem most of us have, is their lack of foresight pushed them into a corner. They risked everything on Vegas selecting Grubauer, and were completely burned by it, despite the fact that other franchises were able to avoid similar pit falls by starting trade negotiations with Vegas prior to protection lists being due. McPhee obviously knew he was targeting selecting the bare minimum of goaltenders ahead of time, given that his trade with the Islanders was built around picking Berube to satisfy his goalie minimums (and allowing Berube to walk afterwards).

Instead of having to dangle Johansson to protect Schmidt, they could have either traded Johansson ahead of time and protected Schmidt, or simply threatened to do just that and settled on an agreeable trade with Vegas.

as stated, Grubauer would be gone. his 1.5m. Still would have been short, if Schmidt was coming in at 2.5m or higher. Someone else would need to go.

Depends on if they take Grubauer or another player. And I don't think Schmidt has that much RFA leverage to drive up his contract if Washington needed to keep it under a certain figure (although I also thought Wilson didn't have much leverage). They could probably afford to take him to arbitration, given that his comparables wouldn't do him many favors.

 

[g00n]

In the terrible situation they backed themselves into by not planning ahead, agreed they weren't left with many good options. But teams like the Wild, Ducks, and Islanders were able to steer around troubled protection lists pretty effectively by engaging in dialogue with Vegas before the protection lists were due. That's the problem most of us have, is their lack of foresight pushed them into a corner. They risked everything on Vegas selecting Grubauer, and were completely burned by it, despite the fact that other franchises were able to avoid similar pit falls by starting trade negotiations with Vegas prior to protection lists being due. McPhee obviously knew he was targeting selecting the bare minimum of goaltenders ahead of time, given that his trade with the Islanders was built around picking Berube to satisfy his goalie minimums (and allowing Berube to walk afterwards).

Instead of having to dangle Johansson to protect Schmidt, they could have either traded Johansson ahead of time and protected Schmidt, or simply threatened to do just that and settled on an agreeable trade with Vegas.



Depends on if they take Grubauer or another player. And I don't think Schmidt has that much RFA leverage to drive up his contract if Washington needed to keep it under a certain figure (although I also thought Wilson didn't have much leverage). They could probably afford to take him to arbitration, given that his comparables wouldn't do him many favors.

Again, what makes you think McPhee wanted to give the Caps a square deal?? How do we know he wasn't feeling them out for the guy they LEAST wanted to lose?

This entire "X teams made deals with Vegas" angle hinges on McPhee treating the Caps fairly. I don't think we can take that as a given.

 

[Hivemind]

Again, what makes you think McPhee wanted to give the Caps a square deal?? How do we know he wasn't feeling them out for the guy they LEAST wanted to lose?

This entire "X teams made deals with Vegas" angle hinges on McPhee treating the Caps fairly. I don't think we can take that as a given.

You're trying to get me to prove a negative here. At this point it's purely speculation that McPhee wants to screw over the Capitals in some way.


But it's a moot point. Even if GMBM can't strike a deal with Vegas, he can still deal Johansson away to another team (say, New Jersey) prior to the protection lists being submitted to the league, and then roll with a 4-4-1 protection.

 

[g00n]

You're trying to get me to prove a negative here. At this point it's purely speculation that McPhee wants to screw over the Capitals in some way.


But it's a moot point. Even if GMBM can't strike a deal with Vegas, he can still deal Johansson away to another team (say, New Jersey) prior to the protection lists being submitted to the league, and then roll with a 4-4-1 protection.

No I'm not trying to prove a negative, we don't need indisputable evidence to examine the potential bargaining landscape. I'm saying you can't assume a level playing field when coming up with these Monday morning GM "coulda shoulda" scenarios. We don't know the shot.

How many comparable trades were there in the days before the draft? A handful? There weren't many comparable player trades and the returns weren't really any better than what gmbm got for Mojo. And for all we know they could've been dangling Mojo to Vegas right up until the draft deadline which would've prevented other trade possibilities. We can't even really call it a buyer's market because there just wasn't much real movement due to the x-factor of expansion.

Regardless, maybe it's just time to accept that this organization values Tom Wilson over Mojo and was looking for a way to minimize the damage from the draft and the FA costs.

 

[usiel]

So Mojo was probably for the chop no matter what. NJ probably heard he was offered up to Vegas and knew gmbm was desperate for a cap dump. Hence the lowball price.

In other news, GMGM wanted Schmidt more than Mojo, who many thought would be snapped up by McPhee if exposed.

Protecting Schmidt would've meant leaving too many other forwards exposed, so this appears to be gmbm's only course of action. Keeping in mind we know some things in hindsight he wouldn't have known, what else would have been a reasonable option?

More confirmation the vegas simply wanted Schmidt on their D core. I get the teeth gnashing and hindsight 20/20 stuff. Pretty clean the team wanted to keep Eller to keep strength down the middle when coming with their expansion strategy. Still surprised vegas didn't take Grubauer. Maybe winning the presidents trophy twice didn't with having a very solid team did him no favor in vegas's eyes.

 

[Langway]

No I'm not trying to prove a negative, we don't need indisputable evidence to examine the potential bargaining landscape. I'm saying you can't assume a level playing field when coming up with these Monday morning GM "coulda shoulda" scenarios. We don't know the shot.

But if it wasn't a level playing field they still should have established that prior to the expansion draft lists being submitted if they were indeed greatly concerned by losing Schmidt. Their statements after the fact reinforce the belief they were generally comfortable rolling the dice on Vegas picking Grubauer. They either weren't greatly concerned about losing Schmidt or didn't do their due diligence prior to losing leverage. MacLellan's characterization of trade talks make it sound as though Vegas had their target locked in and there was nothing he could do about it. But there are always choices available.

One thing I'd put in MacLellan's favor is it's very possible New Jersey wasn't interested in Johansson prior to the expansion draft and even into the very early stages of UFA, not only due to wanting to keep cap space open for a Shattenkirk potentially but also in going 4-4-1 themselves. We don't necessarily know if there were other offers entertained for 90 or that he was ever shopped to teams as anything but a salary dump. Limiting themselves to draft picks likely did limit the market for the player and, again, for that they only have themselves to blame.

My guess is they basically don't care about how any of this was executed beyond hushing modest initial fanbase reaction. They signed their big priority FAs, dealt with what had to happen for cap reasons and that's that. I expect them to continue to deal with business in the same piecemeal fashion for the foreseeable future.

 

[RandyHolt]

How did we convince ourselves Grubby would be taken? Nothing against him but he is not proven as a starter. Telling ourselves he is the best backup in the league reeks of overvaluing our own player; I don't know how one can come to that conclusion with so few a starts under his belt. He hasn't really flashed to me, outside of the odd shutout. Never forget who he is playing for, one of the most defensive coaches in the league.

It just seems a mistake to think George would take him over other players he hand selected. Especially a PMD. Common sense says don't take the backup G off the perennial presidents team. The guy that likely contributed the least to our annual feat. Holts was nothing short of bad this loffs, yet Grubby got no starts.

I thought it all along that George would do us no favor, taking him. No favors should have been expected from the guy we fired.

Oh and a random prediction, if we bought out Orpy, you'd hate the guy that replaced him just as much.

 

[Roughing]

I hated the Orpik signing... but buying him out now makes zero sense. BMac got that one right. He just screwed up the Nate thing. Badly. Unless he really couldn't move Mojo pre-exp-draft and really likes Wilson more than Nate.

 

[Melskiloco]

How did we convince ourselves Grubby would be taken? Nothing against him but he is not proven as a starter. Telling ourselves he is the best backup in the league reeks of overvaluing our own player; I don't know how one can come to that conclusion with so few a starts under his belt. He hasn't really flashed to me, outside of the odd shutout. Never forget who he is playing for, one of the most defensive coaches in the league.

It just seems a mistake to think George would take him over other players he hand selected. Especially a PMD. Common sense says don't take the backup G off the perennial presidents team. The guy that likely contributed the least to our annual feat. Holts was nothing short of bad this loffs, yet Grubby got no starts.

I thought it all along that George would do us no favor, taking him. No favors should have been expected from the guy we fired.

Oh and a random prediction, if we bought out Orpy, you'd hate the guy that replaced him just as much.

Ive been saying this in my head for the past week. Wish I had seen it sooner!

 

[Ridley Simon]

How did we convince ourselves Grubby would be taken? Nothing against him but he is not proven as a starter. Telling ourselves he is the best backup in the league reeks of overvaluing our own player; I don't know how one can come to that conclusion with so few a starts under his belt. He hasn't really flashed to me, outside of the odd shutout. Never forget who he is playing for, one of the most defensive coaches in the league.

It just seems a mistake to think George would take him over other players he hand selected. Especially a PMD. Common sense says don't take the backup G off the perennial presidents team. The guy that likely contributed the least to our annual feat. Holts was nothing short of bad this loffs, yet Grubby got no starts.

I thought it all along that George would do us no favor, taking him. No favors should have been expected from the guy we fired.

Oh and a random prediction, if we bought out Orpy, you'd hate the guy that replaced him just as much.

Bingo to the last comment. And Caps would be stuck w 4yrs of Dead Cap Space. Buying out Orpik is such an "I need instant gratification!!" thought process. It's plowing ahead with one initiative and ignoring half a dozen downsides.

All based on a year of sheltered minutes for the teams bottom pair (or #7) Defenseman.

In my mind, it was always Orlov or Schmidt. Not Orpik or Schmidt. One guy played his way into a 30m contract, the other got exposed in the draft. It is what it is.

 

[RandyHolt]

What were Orpiks 5 worst plays last season?

1. Taking an extra stride towards the boards vs Pitt, when Alzner too let Hags pass by.
2. Cross checking guys into Holtby?
3.
4.
5.


I don't think he had as bad a season as the mob implies he had.

 

[Ridley Simon]

What were Orpiks 5 worst plays last season?

1. Taking an extra stride towards the boards vs Pitt, when Alzner too let Hags pass by.
2. Cross checking guys into Holtby?
3.
4.
5.


I don't think he had as bad a season as the mob implies he had.

He didn't have a bad season at all. And he helped turn Orlov and Schmidt into much better players. Those that don't want to believe that are ignoring what the team has been saying for 3 years now.

If Orpik was getting paid 3m (space left after the buy out), no one would be complaining. No one. And we still would have likely lost Schmidt in a cap crunch. So much Monday AM QB'ing going on here, somewhat based on suppositions.

 

[artilector]

I'm impressed you guys have the energy to debate these what-ifs.

Glossy mediocrity. That's all that now comes up for me when I think of the Caps. I.e. lipstick on a pig.

Owner who means well but knows nothing about sports. GM who can make some nice local moves but doesn't seem to have an overall plan. Coach who's made an art of playing just well enough to lose respectably. Players who flatline in Game 7s. A roster that failed again and then got worse.

This team needs a big change for things to become meaningful again. I'm gonna be impressed if this season the players can still muster a good effort.

Maybe Bura-Eller-Connolly can get hot again. That's about the only thing I'm curious about, lol. Until there's some big change, somehow.

Is anybody actually excited to see something in this coming season? Share the optimism, please