Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[Jags]

I always figured Grubauer was the on that would get taken in the expansion draft....now Im worried its going to be Schmidt.

I think a big part of it will be Fleury's play for the rest of the playoffs, so pummeling him in Game 7 would be a good idea if we want to increase Grubauer's value. He's been pretty stellar this postseason, so odds are good Vegas sees him as a potential starter. They have to select 3 goalies though, so Grubauer remains a strong candidate for selection.

Schmidt's play this year, especially lately, could gum up the works. Anything the Caps can do to nudge them toward Grubauer would be advisable. I think getting them to take Orpik is unrealistic, but who knows?

 

[artilector]

Schmidt has played so well that it may be worthwhile to try to trade him if they're about to lose him to Vegas. Although, I don't know how many potential suitors there are who don't already have 3 defensemen that they really want to protect.

Hopefully Caps find a way to keep him...

 

[BrooklynCapsFan]

Schmidt has played so well that it may be worthwhile to try to trade him if they're about to lose him to Vegas. Although, I don't know how many potential suitors there are who don't already have 3 defensemen that they really want to protect.

Hopefully Caps find a way to keep him...

Losing Schmidt is going to suck. He will grow into a top pairing damn.

 

[RandyHolt]

Losing 88 would suck. Many think Grubby is a top backup and a likely target for the tire kicker. Lighting up MAF helps his chances. 88 had ~11TOI last night.

Don't worry, we will make George take Orpik and throw in a 4th

 

[Raikkonen]

McPhee should be feeling some guilt after Forsberg debacle.

And with many top-4 pretenders he will gather from NHL teams he will need at least one good vet with credibility and leadership.

How would Kuzy react to his BFF being traded? I think he should be fine in the end.

 

[stanleycaps18]

Dumb question....why can't they protect Schmidt and expose Orpik?

 

[Efactor]

or

 

[Stewie G]

Orpik will be exposed. No doubt about that. The issue is the Caps will likely be taking the option that allows for protecting only 3D, and those slots will presumably be taken by Niskanen, Carlson, and Orlov.

 

[kicksavedave]

Dumb question....why can't they protect Schmidt and expose Orpik?

They can only protect 3 defensemen. So, Carlson, Orlov and Schmidt could work, but that leaves Alzner exposed.

Here are the complete rules for anyone interested:

The following rules were approved for the 2017 Expansion Draft:

Protected Lists
* Clubs will have two options for players they wish to protect in the Expansion Draft:

a) Seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender

b) Eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goaltender

* All players who have currently effective and continuing "No Movement" clauses at the time of the Expansion Draft (and who to decline to waive such clauses) must be protected (and will be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

* All first- and second-year professionals, as well as all unsigned draft choices, will be exempt from selection (and will not be counted toward their club's applicable protection limits).

Player Exposure Requirements
* All Clubs must meet the following minimum requirements regarding players exposed for selection in the Expansion Draft:

i) One defenseman who is a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

ii) Two forwards who are a) under contract in 2017-18 and b) played in 40 or more NHL games the prior season OR played in 70 or more NHL games in the prior two seasons.

iii) One goaltender who is under contract in 2017-18 or will be a restricted free agent at the expiration of his current contract immediately prior to 2017-18. If the club elects to make a restricted free agent goaltender available in order to meet this requirement, that goaltender must have received his qualifying offer prior to the submission of the club's protected list.

* Players with potential career-ending injuries who have missed more than the previous 60 consecutive games (or who otherwise have been confirmed to have a career-threatening injury) may not be used to satisfy a club's player exposure requirements, unless approval is received from the NHL. Such players also may be deemed exempt from selection by the League.

Regulations Relating to Expansion Franchise
* The Las Vegas franchise must select one player from each presently existing club for a total of 30 players (not including additional players who may be acquired as the result of violations of the Expansion Draft rules).

* The Las Vegas franchise must select the following number of players at each position: 14 forwards, nine defensemen and three goaltenders.

* The Las Vegas franchise must select a minimum of 20 players who are under contract for the 2017-18 season.

* The Las Vegas franchise must select players with an aggregate Expansion Draft value that is between 60-100% of the prior season's upper limit for the salary cap.

* The Las Vegas franchise may not buy out any of the players selected in the Expansion Draft earlier than the summer following its first season.

 

[kicksavedave]

Looking at those options, I would actually consider this:

Carlson, Orlov, Schmidt, Alzner, Backie, Oshie, Kuzy, Bura and Holtby. Losing any of the other forwards, including MarJo or Ovi, would not be that bad for the future. Losing Orpik or Shatty, same. No one else, including Nisky and Wilson, are irreplaceable. Keeping in mind we'll only lose one player.

 

[Efactor]

They can only protect 3 defensemen. So, Carlson, Orlov and Schmidt could work, but that leaves Alzner exposed.

Zero percent chance Niskanen is left off the list. He is our best defenseman.

My guess is Nisky, Carly, and Orlov. They'll either get assurance of Vegas taking Grubbauer or they'll make a deal(a pick) to protect Schmidt also.

Orpik will be left unprotected and Alzner is UFA.

 

[Hivemind]

Dumb question....why can't they protect Schmidt and expose Orpik?

Orpik is not slated into anyone's projections for Capitals protections. Teams can either protect 7F, 3D, 1G or 8 total skaters at 1G. Most project the Caps will protect 7F and 3D, and the 3D will be Niskanen, Carlson, and Orlov. They could get Schmidt protected if they opt for the 8 total skaters option, but that would mean exposing more forwards that they don't want to lose. Protecting 8 total skaters (with Schmidt one of them) would mean that they can only protect four forwards, presumably Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and one other. That means they can only protect one of Johansson, Burakovsky, Oshie (UFA), Williams (UFA), Wilson, Eller, and Beagle.

 

[kicksavedave]

Zero percent chance Niskanen is left off the list. He is our best defenseman.

My guess is Nisky, Carly, and Orlov. They'll either get assurance of Vegas taking Grubbauer or they'll make a deal(a pick) to protect Schmidt also.

Orpik will be left unprotected and Alzner is UFA.

My bad, didn't realize Nisky had a NTC in his contract, so he must be protected, not optional. Bottom line is, we're going to lose one player. There isn't a single player that this franchise cannot succeed without, including Ovi. The closest may be Backstrom. They're going to lose a lot more in free agency than the expansion draft. It really is this year or bust, then partial rebuild.

 

[kicksavedave]

Orpik is not slated into anyone's projections for Capitals protections. Teams can either protect 7F, 3D, 1G or 8 total skaters at 1G. Most project the Caps will protect 7F and 3D, and the 3D will be Niskanen, Carlson, and Orlov. They could get Schmidt protected if they opt for the 8 total skaters option, but that would mean exposing more forwards that they don't want to lose. Protecting 8 total skaters (with Schmidt one of them) would mean that they can only protect four forwards, presumably Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, and one other. That means they can only protect one of Johansson, Burakovsky, Oshie (UFA), Williams (UFA), Wilson, Eller, and Beagle.

Looking at the list in bold, only Bura seems critical to protect. MoJo doesn't really bring something we cannot find elswhere, he and Bura are similar but Bura seems to show much higher ceiling and seems to be developing his upside better than MoJo. I think we've seen what MoJo will be - a solid skilled 2nd 3rd liner. Bura to me has first line potential, and he's still just 22.

 

[Hivemind]

Looking at the list in bold, only Bura seems critical to protect. MoJo doesn't really bring something we cannot find elswhere, he and Bura are similar but Bura seems to show much higher ceiling and seems to be developing his upside better than MoJo. I think we've seen what MoJo will be - a solid skilled 2nd 3rd liner. Bura to me has first line potential, and he's still just 22.

As much as I like Schmidt, I'd have a very hard time exposing a legitimate top 6 scoring winger (Johansson) to protect Schmidt. Even if Johansson never finds another gear, he's already an affordable scoring line winger who provides both playmaking and a net front presence.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I would look to deal Ovechkin in the off-season while he still has value. I love the guy,but there's no denying that he's on the downside of his career. Get a high pick and some prospects while we still can.

When was the last time the Captain of a Stanley Cup Champion was traded the offseason after his 1st Cup? See what I did there?

 

[Langway]

My bad, didn't realize Nisky had a NTC in his contract, so he must be protected, not optional. Bottom line is, we're going to lose one player. There isn't a single player that this franchise cannot succeed without, including Ovi. The closest may be Backstrom. They're going to lose a lot more in free agency than the expansion draft. It really is this year or bust, then partial rebuild.

Only players with NMCs are must protects, assuming they don't waive it.

Schmidt is basically the blueline equivalent of an energy forward. Until he either can eat 5-on-5 minutes or be a heavier special teams player, it's not worth protecting him. He's a valuable asset given LD uncertainty beyond Orlov in the short-term but it's still very likely either going to be him or Grubauer gone. Dallas likely signing Bishop and Carolina already locking up Darling reduces the number of spots for Grubauer. Calgary is the only team with a glaring need for an upgrade it seems. A few other spots are questionable but maybe not a fit pre-expansion.

McPhee is on record as treating the expansion draft as in part an auction for other teams. They'll keep some players but maybe only about half when all is said and done. So part of the question will be which is the better asset between Schmidt and Grubauer. A somewhat limited goaltender market could mean Grubauer stays in Vegas if picked, at least for the time being. Whereas Schmidt may have more value elsewhere depending on who else Vegas winds up with on their blueline and how he finishes. There's always a premium for defense and young defenders that can skate like he does will have a market.

It it's either lose Grubauer to retain Schmidt next season or lose Schmidt and then trade Grubauer for the best futures available. Unless the Caps could get the 16th pick for Grubauer I'd guess they'll prefer the former.

 

[442]

Only players with NMCs are must protects, assuming they don't waive it.

Schmidt is basically the blueline equivalent of an energy forward. Until he either can eat 5-on-5 minutes or be a heavier special teams player, it's not worth protecting him. He's a valuable asset given LD uncertainty beyond Orlov in the short-term but it's still very likely either going to be him or Grubauer gone. Dallas likely signing Bishop and Carolina already locking up Darling reduces the number of spots for Grubauer. Calgary is the only team with a glaring need for an upgrade it seems. A few other spots are questionable but maybe not a fit pre-expansion.

McPhee is on record as treating the expansion draft as in part an auction for other teams. They'll keep some players but maybe only about half when all is said and done. So part of the question will be which is the better asset between Schmidt and Grubauer. A somewhat limited goaltender market could mean Grubauer stays in Vegas if picked, at least for the time being. Whereas Schmidt may have more value elsewhere depending on who else Vegas winds up with on their blueline and how he finishes. There's always a premium for defense and young defenders that can skate like he does will have a market.

It it's either lose Grubauer to retain Schmidt next season or lose Schmidt and then trade Grubauer for the best futures available. Unless the Caps could get the 16th pick for Grubauer I'd guess they'll prefer the former.

Agree w/ all of this

 

[g00n]

I think we're putting more value on Schmidt than the rest of the league does. Has there been any buzz around him in other parts of HF?

 

[Capitlols]

Reiterating I want Johansson off this team, among many others

 

[Langway]

Time to start over but I fully expect them to kid themselves a little while longer.

At least there are no convenient roster deficiencies to fixate over rather than the elephant(s) in the room. It's on the core. They're too slow and, when it matters, disorganized.

 

[Brian23]

I think we're putting more value on Schmidt than the rest of the league does. Has there been any buzz around him in other parts of HF?

Seen a lot of Fancy Stat guys starting to pump his tires, lotta talk about a good 2nd pairing PMD type for a Playoff team.

So after that awful loss, I think it's time we rebuild hardcore. I'd probably try and build around Backstrom and Kuznetsov down the middle, see about unloading the wingers we've got (sans Burakovsky) and seeing what we can do that way. Move Orpik and Eller, clear up some space, and take it a year at a time and hope we can get something great out of dealing 90, 8, and probably someone like 74 or 2.

 

[Capitlols]

Time to start over but I fully expect them to kid themselves a little while longer.

Frankly the drafting has been subpar recently, it'll be nice to have a completely new vision from the scouting to the GM

 

[MrGone]

I think we're putting more value on Schmidt than the rest of the league does. Has there been any buzz around him in other parts of HF?

Every team has a #4 they don't want to lose. Its like waivers list. People like there guys and are worried about losing them. Only to find out no one wanted them.

Gurb is the smart play for GMGM.

 

[Hivemind]

The BMac era has been All-In to win the cup, both in terms of the types of contracts given up as well as the asset management. Any significant moves to try and restock for the players they are about to lose are going to be difficult, and they're in a terrible position to start a wholesale rebuild.