Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXXI -- Will we even care by July 1?

[Alexander the Gr8]

Anyone else think Shattenkirk has been one of our best defenseman since he's been a Cap? First couple weeks he definitely had some adjusting - but since then he's been on point

Between him and Niskanen

 

[MrGone]

He's been great. Even aside from his stellar PP contributions he's been good at both ends at ES. Assuming he keeps up his play through the postseason I hope the Capitals can find a way to make a run at re-signing him.

Even Mike Green who was a shadow of the hero most believed him to be was good with PP time and sheltered minutes.

 

[twabby]

Mike Green should have won the Norris at least once and his career was derailed by very significant injuries right after that.

I'm not really sure what Mike Green has to do with the discussion about Shattenkirk. It's a lazy comparison if you're trying to say they're the same player.

 

[amjay13]

Mike Green should have won the Norris at least once and his career was derailed by very significant injuries right after that.

I'm not really sure what Mike Green has to do with the discussion about Shattenkirk. It's a lazy comparison if you're trying to say they're the same player.

Agree. Green was very good pre-injuries.

As far as Shattenkirk goes, all things being equal I'd keep him over Alzner, but he's going to cost much more.

 

[MrGone]

Mike Green should have won the Norris at least once and his career was derailed by very significant injuries right after that.

I'm not really sure what Mike Green has to do with the discussion about Shattenkirk. It's a lazy comparison if you're trying to say they're the same player.

As far as the comparison goes they are both closer to being a 4th wing than a stay home defender. And both are being used the same way.

If you follow along you will see someone said Shattenkirk has been our best defender. And just like Mike Greens last season on the team he is getting offensive zone starts and playing against lesser competition.

How can someone getting sheltered minuets be the best defender? He is doing next to none of the heavy lifting.

 

[txpd]

Anyone else think Shattenkirk has been one of our best defenseman since he's been a Cap? First couple weeks he definitely had some adjusting - but since then he's been on point

no. before I want to keep 22, I want to see him in defensive situations and success at them. I will say that he appears to get his minutes but that is partly because Carlson has been out and even with that is still not getting any prime defensive ice time.

 

[twabby]

As far as the comparison goes they are both closer to being a 4th wing than a stay home defender. And both are being used the same way.

If you follow along you will see someone said Shattenkirk has been our best defender. And just like Mike Greens last season on the team he is getting offensive zone starts and playing against lesser competition.

How can someone getting sheltered minuets be the best defender? He is doing next to none of the heavy lifting.

I wouldn't agree that he's closer to a winger than a stay at home D. That's really stretching it just because he's a solid puck moving and transition defenseman.

He's getting easier deployments due to a coach's decision, not because he can't handle them. People said the same thing about Orlov not being able to handle tough assignments last year and lo and behold, he was even better this season against tougher opponents.

Quality of competition is likely an overstated factor in a player's performance because eventually every defenseman is going to see every opposing forward due to on the fly changes and not being able to hard match all of the time, especially on the road. And zone starts are similar because while everyone says he gets the easiest starts, the vast majority of D's shifts start on the fly.

Niskanen is still the best all around D on the team but it's pretty hard to say that Shattenkirk has been anything but a huge upgrade on the roster. He brings a dimension that others don't and if he keeps it up I think the Caps need to look at keeping him in the offseason.

 

[txpd]

The Caps wont be an option for Shattenkirk. The experience of playing with the Caps would have to change his mind. The Caps aren't going to play him what he can get on the open market and the Caps are not in New York.

Shattenkirk has been good with Brooks Oprik, but you wouldn't want to keep that pair as a 2nd pair. Would you?

 

[Langway]

Shattenkirk has said that the system suits him a lot better than in St. Louis. That could be a consideration for him, although no doubt the Caps will have to make some moves to keep him. The system comment and what he's said about the hunger in the room are positives that could keep the door open for him to return. I do find it doubtful but if PP1 helps fuel a deep run and he's solid 5-on-5 they've got to at least consider it. That decision probably has to hand-in-hand with a longer-term decision on Carlson. Can they move him and pick up quality expansion-exempt, NHL-ready assets?

Carlson is a more well-rounded defenseman in comparison but Shattenkirk is the better possession player and the PP1 value could end up being of significant impact in the playoffs (fewer PPs or not).

 

[RandyHolt]

I don't think KSK will cost all that much more than Alzner. Calgary or someone will be willing to pony up 5+ for Karl. KSK will be only 2M more IMO.

Funny thing, the Blues got better after KSK - made the playoffs even. KSK didn't even score for what, 29 games. He is really good on the PP but want to see him on D in the playoffs before thinking he will get 8+

 

[twabby]

The Caps wont be an option for Shattenkirk. The experience of playing with the Caps would have to change his mind. The Caps aren't going to play him what he can get on the open market and the Caps are not in New York.

Shattenkirk has been good with Brooks Oprik, but you wouldn't want to keep that pair as a 2nd pair. Would you?

I don't know what Shattenkirk is thinking. If he's dead set on New York then nothing will change his mind, but the Capitals should at least give him a good offer and the opportunity to change his mind rather than just assuming he's going to leave and not even attempting to re-sign him (again, assuming his level of play continues through the postseason). For as good as Niskanen is in all other facets of the game he can't really QB a power-play very well. And Carlson's contract is expiring next season and is likely getting a huge raise that IMO won't be worth it so the Capitals really need to explore their options. Unlike most of their recent TDL pickups Shattenkirk has fit in very nicely and has added a new dynamic so I think it's worth it to explore keeping him around. It's not like he's very old either so even if he commands a 7 year contract, for instance, it would expire when he's 35 and could be well worth it for a majority of the contract.

I don't think Shattenkirk would necessarily have to stay paired with Brooks Orpik, but right now Orpik-Shattenkirk would be a very good second pair IMO. If Orpik keeps up his level of play then I have no problem with that as a second pair. If not I'd bet that Schmidt-Shattenkirk would be an excellent second pair.

 

[Raikkonen]

We don't have cap space. I bet there is a chance Orlov progresses further and commands hefty raise (even if next summer).

OTOH, hard to see a reason to pay Carlson 7M. Maybe he will sign for more than Nisky.. But not by much.

Carlson is bigger and potentially better top-4 dman (I'm sure he IS better) but for the sake of discussion lets say he's not yet in his prime.

Having Carlson and Niskanen for 12M makes KSK unnecessary. Cap space left should be allocated elsewhere.

What we really need from KSK's PP skills is the ****ing Cup.

 

[twabby]

We don't have cap space. I bet there is a chance Orlov progresses further and commands hefty raise (even if next summer).

OTOH, hard to see a reason to pay Carlson 7M. Maybe he will sign for more than Nisky.. But not by much.

Carlson is bigger and potentially better top-4 dman (I'm sure he IS better) but for the sake of discussion lets say he's not yet in his prime.

Having Carlson and Niskanen for 12M makes KSK unnecessary. Cap space left should be allocated elsewhere.

What we really need from KSK's PP skills is the ****ing Cup.

I don't think it's feasible to re-sign both Carlson and Shattenkirk. I think the question becomes who is a better fit for the team and what decision is best in terms of asset management? Right now it's Shattenkirk IMO, especially given that Carlson could likely fetch a huge return in the offseason given his position and team-friendly contract. But I imagine Shattenkirk's offseason desires and postseason performances for both he and Carlson will likely answer the question. The concerning thing about Carlson is that the past two seasons have been either completely derailed or severely impacted by injuries. At some point you have to suspect it's going to be a chronic issue and plan accordingly. Brooks Laich and Mike Green were never the same and it's very possible that Carlson will follow the same path. Carlson often looks lazy on the ice and while it might be perceived as simple lack of effort it's also sometimes indicative of playing through an injury. Obviously you and I have no real insight into his injury situation other than it's a LBI but hopefully the training staff and management do have a good idea of what's going on and can use past experience to give them an educated guess on what might be in store for Carlson's future.

Again, if Carlson has another standout postseason then I don't think they'll consider moving him but if he struggles like he has most of the past two regular seasons it makes sense to consider moving on from him and recovering significant assets this offseason.

 

[txpd]

If Carlson brings a "huge return", he would be healthy and playing his game. If he is healthy and playing his game which is strong in all aspects of the game, then I would much rather keep Carlson than Shattenkirk.

I realize that you think 22's pp skills trump 74's pk skills and that 22's offensive game being better trumps 74 having a better defensive game. I dont think most agree with that point of view. Shattenkirk clearly makes the pp better, but the Caps are 1st in gaa and a lot of their 3rd in ga comes directly and indirectly from being 1st in gaa

 

[twabby]

I don't think it's a stretch to say that a RHD, especially one who can QB a PP, is probably the most highly coveted position aside from stud 1Cs. Adam Larsson just returned Taylor Hall, as an example. I'd bet that there's another GM out there willing to part with a lot to get Carlson even if he was coming off a rough season. Colorado, for example, comes to mind as a team desperate for defense with valuable assets they would part with. And I'm sure there are plenty of other teams who would love to have Carlson on their roster, though it's impossible as an outsider to predict exactly who. It's all about finding inefficiencies in the market and exploiting them, much like MacLellan did with the Brouwer trade that nobody saw coming.

Also I'm not really sure why Carlson should be considered anything special defensively. The numbers suggest otherwise and his possession numbers certainly leave a lot to be desired over the course of his entire career. I honestly don't think there is much difference in the defensive abilities of Shattenkirk and Carlson given their careers to date.

 

[895]

I just don't see why so many people are opposed to moving Carlson and keeping KS.

Yes it's unlikely to happen for many reasons, but if it did, from a pure asset management standpoint it's a terrific move.

 

[txpd]

I don't think it's a stretch to say that a RHD, especially one who can QB a PP, is probably the most highly coveted position aside from stud 1Cs. Adam Larsson just returned Taylor Hall, as an example. I'd bet that there's another GM out there willing to part with a lot to get Carlson even if he was coming off a rough season..

This falls into that I know better than GM's know. You want both Alzner and Carlson gone. At present you want them both playing sheltered 3rd pair minutes. Yet, you are convinced GM's of other teams will be ready to pay a big price to get either of them.

Color me confused

 

[895]

This falls into that I know better than GM's know. You want both Alzner and Carlson gone. At present you want them both playing sheltered 3rd pair minutes. Yet, you are convinced GM's of other teams will be ready to pay a big price to get either of them.

Color me confused

Well there's no contradiction there. GMs overpay all the time. Every year.

 

[g00n]

Well there's no contradiction there. GMs overpay all the time. Every year.

As a mistake. Can't manage your own team hoping the other guy just makes a huge mistake and bails you out.

 

[Jags]

We don't have cap space.

The cap would have to go up and Mac would definitely have to make some moves, but keeping Oshie and Shattenkirk isn't impossible. For example, based on a flat cap...

1W 9.54 Ovechkin
1C 6.70 Backstrom
1W 6.00 Oshie
2W 4.58 Johansson
2C 6.50 Kuznetsov
2W 0.86 Vrana
3W 1.70 Connolly
3C 3.50 Eller
3W 3.00 Burakovsky
4W 0.58 Carey
4C 1.75 Beagle
4W 2.00 Wilson

LD 4.25 Orlov
RD 5.75 Niskanen
LD 2.25 Schmidt
RD 7.00 Shattenkirk
LD 0.80 Chorney
RD 0.70 Bowey

1G 6.10 Holtby
2G 0.80 Backup

13F 0.00 13F
7D 0.61 7D

CAP -$1,970,000 Cap Space

 

[txpd]

I just don't see why so many people are opposed to moving Carlson and keeping KS.

Yes it's unlikely to happen for many reasons, but if it did, from a pure asset management standpoint it's a terrific move.

I am not against it. I am not for it. I dont have the inside information to make that decision.

Is there any chance of signing Shattenkirk? It would seem there isn't, but....
Is Carlson struggling with an injury that has slowed him down since last season? Is he damaged goods?

If Carlson will not be returning to the quality of game that he has played in the past because of injury and Shattenkirk could be signed for what Carlson would cast to resign, I would do it.

If they are both at the top of their game, I would choose Carlson.

 

[895]

I am not against it. I am not for it. I dont have the inside information to make that decision.

Is there any chance of signing Shattenkirk? It would seem there isn't, but....
Is Carlson struggling with an injury that has slowed him down since last season? Is he damaged goods?

If Carlson will not be returning to the quality of game that he has played in the past because of injury and Shattenkirk could be signed for what Carlson would cast to resign, I would do it.

If they are both at the top of their game, I would choose Carlson.

It's not just about who's better between Carlson and Shattenkirk. I think that's Carlson by a small margin.

It's about whether or not it's better to have Shattenkirk and the assets recouped in a Carlson trade or just Carlson.

I think the answer to that is 100% Shattenkirk.

 

[txpd]

LD 4.25 Orlov
RD 5.75 Niskanen
LD 2.25 Schmidt
RD 7.00 Shattenkirk
LD 0.80 Chorney
RD 0.70 Bowey

Yikes....wow

 

[twabby]

As a mistake. Can't manage your own team hoping the other guy just makes a huge mistake and bails you out.

It's not a matter of the other GM making a huge mistake it's a matter of making a move that makes sense for Washington. Sometimes this involves fleecing another GM like in the Brouwer trade, but it could also just be swapping positions of need and making a mutually beneficial trade.

The fact is the Capitals almost surely will not be able to keep Carlson and Shattenkirk so I think it's worth it to explore keeping Shattenkirk and recovering assets from Carlson as a potential option, rather than losing Shattenkirk for nothing and potentially losing Carlson next offseason for nothing. Again, this all depends on how the postseason shakes out, what Shattenkirk's desires are, and the true nature of Carlson's injury.

 

[txpd]

It's not just about who's better between Carlson and Shattenkirk. I think that's Carlson by a small margin.

It's about whether or not it's better to have Shattenkirk and the assets recouped in a Carlson trade or just Carlson.

I think the answer to that is 100% Shattenkirk.

That would be great if sports teams were machine pieces you collect. There are actually people. Hockey teams are considered by many to be the closest of teams. Is Shattenkirk and a 1st pick and a good prospect more valuable than Carlson? Maybe. Might very well be, though, that its not the best thing for the team going forward.

In this case, we can just go back to the likelihood that Shattenkirk has other plans for next season