Speculation: Acq./Rost. Bldg./Cap/Lines etc. Part LXXVIII (It's Working! Let's Fix It.)

[trick9]

Well the limitations are the concern. If we're talking about depth and upgrades in a system that now apparently involves just about everyone playing every inch of the ice as needed, it's hard to hang your hat on a guy who needs specific linemates and has to be in front of the net to avoid being a liability. It's a massive risk, imo. Not saying it won't work, but like you say it's a huge wildcard.

If we're going to shuffle the deck here it has to be for a CLEAR upgrade that can fill in all over the place like just about everyone else on the roster.

What makes it worth considering is that you don't have to give up the backups (Vrana, for example) in that trade. Besides there are lots of guys who need certain system to succeed. Carl Hagelin is one of them and look at the impact he had when he was traded. This is where the pro scouting comes to huge effect. Is Vanek a good fit to this team and system? If that strikes out, are we willing to put Jakub Vrana to top-9 role in the Playoffs? If the answers to both are clear no's, then there is no point in considering this (see: Curtis Glencross).

Vanek is a guy worthy of consideration because that doesn't require shuffling the deck too much. 1-for-1 kind of move. You don't get a bigger potential upgrade from anywhere with this cap situation without shuffling the deck more than that. Besides, you aren't going to get a clear upgrade like Vanek in a perfect fit would be mid-season.

We are talking about a guy who had 40-goal pace and over a PPG during the lockout season, and who had 109 points (9th among all wingers) in 116 games playing for 3 different teams, before moving to the dumpster fire that was (pre: this season) Minnesota Wild. 30 points in 33 games this season when he finally left the Wild. Only Backstrom has better PPG rate this season from the Capitals.

All about the system and the style fit. If you strike gold, that's your Phil Kessel on a bargain contract right there. In my scenario, if you don't, then it's time to put your eggs on to the Jakub Vrana -basket.

 

[Jags]

Brett Connolly being on the roster still is an over-achievement for him.

The kid has been bounced all over the lineup, scratched a bunch of times, and still performs. His 7 goals in 30 games is a 19-goal pace over a full season, and he's played well on both sides of the ice. Give him some credit.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

We like our team.

 

[Jags]

We acquire him with Cap retained, even then he's not the only option out there. And do you really believe Connolly is better than Vanek, there's no way you can type that out with a straight face. Don't get the Connolly fandom on these boards, he's a forth liner that can jump to the third if needed, but still a weak third liner.

You talk like retaining salary is a common thing. It really isn't. Vanek is going to be a key TDL target, and you want them to give up money, too? Not happening.

The only way I see us getting Vanek is by giving up a roster player, and given how well Connolly has played, I'd honestly part with Wilson first.

I love what Wilson brings to the table physically, but his offensive IQ is often a liability.

IF we can get Vanek for Wilson + our 1st + maybe a second-tier prospect? Vanek can play both wings (right shot that typically plays LW), plug anywhere into our top-9, enabling us to show a lot of different looks without sacrificing offensive punch, improves our PP depth, and we'd cut Wilson's $2m off our cap next year, which we'll need.

This would make our 4th line Winnik/Beagle/Connolly, which would miss Wilson's punishing play (and the PK would miss him too), but it'd also be more offensively potent, letting us roll 4 lines more equally, keeping us fresher late into games and OT.

Doesn't seem like a bad move to me and it'd fit under our cap as-is.

Vanek could reasonably plug into any wing spot we have, except Ovechkin's.

How much would you miss Wilson?

 

[Corby78]

You talk like retaining salary is a common thing. It really isn't. Vanek is going to be a key TDL target, and you want them to give up money, too? Not happening.

The only way I see us getting Vanek is by giving up a roster player, and given how well Connolly has played, I'd honestly part with Wilson first.

I love what Wilson brings to the table physically, but his offensive IQ is often a liability.

IF we can get Vanek for Wilson + our 1st + maybe a second-tier prospect? Vanek can play both wings (right shot that typically plays LW), plug anywhere into our top-9, enabling us to show a lot of different looks without sacrificing offensive punch, improves our PP depth, and we'd cut Wilson's $2m off our cap next year, which we'll need.

This would make our 4th line Winnik/Beagle/Connolly, which would miss Wilson's punishing play (and the PK would miss him too), but it'd also be more offensively potent, letting us roll 4 lines more equally, keeping us fresher late into games and OT.

Doesn't seem like a bad move to me and it'd fit under our cap as-is.

Vanek could reasonably plug into any wing spot we have, except Ovechkin's.

How much would you miss Wilson?

As we sit right now I'm in agreement with you. Last year I didn't want to lose him. But this year, now with a 2mil contract, his hitting is down, his points are down, and he seems to be constantly getting "reputation" penalties. I'd be fine with giving him up. I think we have the players to fill the PK hole and outside that, I'm not seeing him contribute much.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I'm going to (probably rightly) assume that no "key deadline target" is coming to D.C. via trade with Tom Wilson going the other way as the NHL roster player our trade partner would covet. I also don't think the Caps move their 1st unless it's for a player with some contract time left beyond this season. Just a hunch. The better they play, the less likely impactful moves will be made imo.

 

[Jags]

I'm going to (probably rightly) assume that no "key deadline target" is coming to D.C. via trade with Tom Wilson going the other way as the NHL roster player our trade partner would covet. I also don't think the Caps move their 1st unless it's for a player with some contract time left beyond this season. Just a hunch. The better they play, the less likely impactful moves will be made imo.

I don't think it happens either, but it's even sillier to make the Vanek/Connolly comparison I replied to, since if we DID somehow manage to get Vanek it'd have to be with a roster guy going the other way, and that guy would definitely not be Connolly. Senseless to ponder the either/or situation when you'd be WAY more likely to have both guys.

Also, I think a lot of teams would like Tom Wilson. He's taken a huge step forward on the forecheck and PK over the last two seasons, still only 22, demonstrated a lot of potential upside prior to his NHL debut that might still emerge, and is on a short list of the toughest guys in the league. Big motor, great size/frame, plenty of speed, restricted... There's really no bad news there. He has real value.

The Caps 1st this year will most likely be a late 1st in a weak draft. It's basically a 2nd-rounder in actual value. I don't think the Caps would hesitate to part with it for an impact rental.

 

[Revelation]

Vanek would be sick with Backstrom or Kuzy

Garbage goal machine with out of this world hands.

 

[txpd]

Which RW is that we are trying to push out of the lineup? Wilson? That ain't happening.

 

[Mackinnonen]

This team is almost perfect. Just need to bring this elite play in the playoffs.

 

[Revelation]

Which RW is that we are trying to push out of the lineup? Wilson? That ain't happening.

Then we can enjoy more reffing like last night's since the whole team is tainted by Wilson's reputation.

Whatever the hell Wilson brings anymore isn't worth the rest of the team getting penalized every time they get mugged or cheapshot.

It would probably be Connolly since Vanek is a LW. But I could care less which of Connolly, Winnik or Wilson a PPG vet with good net front play pushes out of the lineup if it elevates the team.

Ovechkin Backstrom Oshie
Vanek Kuznetsov Williams
Johansson Eller Burakovsky
Winnik Beagle Wilson

Connolly as inevitable injury/loafing player replacement

Also denying Vanek to the Pens could be the type of move that gets us past them. Imagine if we denied them Daley last year or Kunitz the year they won the cup.

 

[Ridley Simon]

The intention of Malkin and Ovechkin is to show the Caps only really have one elite player that is better than theirs. The Penguins depth is compared to ours is insane. Why would you not want to add a player that can improve the chances of beating the penguins. In a 7 game series their depth takes over, just look why we have not made it out of the second round, everyone has more depth. A player like Ducehene checks all the boxes and their isnt a player in Hershey or draft picks that I wouldn't give up for him. Speed, depth, scoring, playmaking, everything we need for when Kuznetsov, Burakovsky, Eller, Oshie, or Williams, etc. don't show up in the playoffs. Crosby can not show up for an entire series and the Pens could still win because of Kessel and Malkin. If Ovechkin doesn't show up who takes over for him????

Add on top of that the rumor of the Pens looking into Landeskog and the Caps have to add someone. Why were the Yankees so dominate in baseball, they were aggressive and when the Red Sox made a splash trade the Yankees made a tidal wave move. They knew that to get to the World Series they had to beat the Red Sox. Whatever happened after that was won on momentum.

How do they afford Duchene's contract?

What has Duchene done in the playoffs, since he's replacing all the supposed playoff losers? 6 assists in 8 games makes him "the guy" to take over versus Pittsburgh?

Are you sure this is well thought out? Or a knee jerk to a game where Pitt scored at minumum 2 puck luck goals and 1 illegal goal?

And they still blew a 2 goal lead in the 3rd to the Caps, and won due to a skills competition.

Ok brother. Step away from the ledge. Far far away.

 

[Ridley Simon]

While I am a huge supporter of bringing on Matt Duchene he isn't the only player that fits the bill. There are several players that I think this team should look into, they are in a similar spot as to when we traded for Oshie. Duchene is the obvious number 1 candidate with others being players like Jordan Eberle who would help this team this year and also make losing Oshie in the off-season more bearable. Maybe swinging for a player like Bjugstad, Simmonds, or Ryan make a splash. This team needs playmaking, speed, and size. The game is passing players like Vanek or Hanzel by because they don't have the speed or net front play that is needed

For the love of Christ, can you address those players salaries and how you fit them under the cap?

 

[Ridley Simon]

I know of a potential top 4 defenseman the Capitals could acquire for literally nothing: Nate Schmidt. IMO he's been the most improved player on the team and deserves a top 4 shot right now.

Here's a post I made about how Schmidt has been incredibly good at suppressing quality chances against

Yes he's had easier deployments than the other D in the top 4, but he's killing those easy deployments. When someone does an excellent job at an easier task it's time to give him a harder task and see if he can do it. Orlov was given the opportunity to get top 4 time after being sheltered last season and has been very good at it, time to give Schmidt the same opportunity.

I could honestly see an Alzner-Schmidt pairing being a good shutdown duo while ALSO being at 50% or better at shot-attempt differential. That would also allow an Orpik-Carlson pairing which has had more success in the past than the current Alzner-Carlson pairing.

9-2
27-88
44-74/4 (depending on when Carlson gets healthy)

I think this could work and might optimize the pairings even further. Either way Nate Schmidt has vastly outplayed both Carlson and Alzner at even strength and it would be a shame to see him stuck on the 3rd pairing for the rest of the season.

You are stealing my pairings idea

 

[Revelation]

While I am a huge supporter of bringing on Matt Duchene he isn't the only player that fits the bill. There are several players that I think this team should look into, they are in a similar spot as to when we traded for Oshie. Duchene is the obvious number 1 candidate with others being players like Jordan Eberle who would help this team this year and also make losing Oshie in the off-season more bearable. Maybe swinging for a player like Bjugstad, Simmonds, or Ryan make a splash. This team needs playmaking, speed, and size. The game is passing players like Vanek or Hanzel by because they don't have the speed or net front play that is needed

The game is passing Vanek, who is ~PPG this year and leading his team in points and whose game is BASED on net front play? As opposed to Bobby Ryan, who is an all around lazy slug/healthy scratch with 16 points on the year?

(Mod)

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

Which RW is that we are trying to push out of the lineup? Wilson? That ain't happening.

Wilson being pushed out of the lineup shouldn't prevent us from making a move. He's getting outplayed by almost everyone on the team.

This team is almost perfect. Just need to bring this elite play in the playoffs.

Almost. You said it, there's always room for improvement. I like the Caps the way they are built, but if there's an opportunity to improve at the TDL, we should be ready to sacrifice anything for what will be our last big shot at the Cup.

Then we can enjoy more reffing like last night's since the whole team is tainted by Wilson's reputation.

Whatever the hell Wilson brings anymore isn't worth the rest of the team getting penalized every time they get mugged or cheapshot.

It would probably be Connolly since Vanek is a LW. But I could care less which of Connolly, Winnik or Wilson a PPG vet with good net front play pushes out of the lineup if it elevates the team.

Ovechkin Backstrom Oshie
Vanek Kuznetsov Williams
Johansson Eller Burakovsky
Winnik Beagle Wilson

Connolly as inevitable injury/loafing player replacement

Also denying Vanek to the Pens could be the type of move that gets us past them. Imagine if we denied them Daley last year or Kunitz the year they won the cup.

Stop worrying about them. We can't just buy every player on the market to prevent our rivals from making a big deadline acquisition.

 

[CapitalsCupReality]

I don't think it happens either, but it's even sillier to make the Vanek/Connolly comparison I replied to, since if we DID somehow manage to get Vanek it'd have to be with a roster guy going the other way, and that guy would definitely not be Connolly. Senseless to ponder the either/or situation when you'd be WAY more likely to have both guys.

Also, I think a lot of teams would like Tom Wilson. He's taken a huge step forward on the forecheck and PK over the last two seasons, still only 22, demonstrated a lot of potential upside prior to his NHL debut that might still emerge, and is on a short list of the toughest guys in the league. Big motor, great size/frame, plenty of speed, restricted... There's really no bad news there. He has real value.

The Caps 1st this year will most likely be a late 1st in a weak draft. It's basically a 2nd-rounder in actual value. I don't think the Caps would hesitate to part with it for an impact rental.

Sure a lot of teams like Tom Wilson well enough, but as the core NHL roster player coming back in a trade where the trade partner is giving up their impact trade chip? I'd think someone could better the offer you're suggesting if this is really an impact player who will probably have other bidders.

Historically the Caps have rarely parted with their 1st rounders. Historically they've shown they favor their own guys over a lot of the more costly deadline options and historically they've been more inclined to add affordable depth as insurance when the team is playing really well like they are now.

I'm starting to feel like much more roster shaping won't happen, but I'd love an upgrade to the D myself.

 

[Bananas]

Sure a lot of teams like Tom Wilson well enough, but as the core NHL roster player coming back in a trade where the trade partner is giving up their impact trade chip? I'd think someone could better the offer you're suggesting if this is really an impact player who will probably have other bidders.

Historically the Caps have rarely parted with their 1st rounders. Historically they've shown they favor their own guys over a lot of the more costly deadline options and historically they've been more inclined to add affordable depth as insurance when the team is playing really well like they are now.

I'm starting to feel like much more roster shaping won't happen, but I'd love an upgrade to the D myself.

And historically we've dink/dunked at the deadline and fallen flat on our faces in the playoffs. Let's do things differently this time...

It starts at the deadline just like it has the last two years. Show the team, and the world, that we're not ****ing around anymore and our intention is to win the Cup ... THIS YEAR.

 

[Corby78]

Watching the Blackhawks vs Avalanche......

Go get Matt Duchene

 

[Revelation]

Stop worrying about them. We can't just buy every player on the market to prevent our rivals from making a big deadline acquisition.

They got past us twice after getting players that would have filled holes for our roster as well but yeah, lets not learn anything from that.

 

[Revelation]

If the Wings are out of it they probably put Brendan Smith on the market as well. He's not a worldbeater but he's an underrated borderline top 4, could be the Schultz/Daley of last year. At the very least he's a good skater who plays hard, can play both sides and raises his game in the playoffs. Known for some boneheaded defense sometimes though... so a lot like Daley/poor man's Jack Johnson. Having him step in over Chorney in case of injury or to replace Schmidt/Orpik/Orlov if one of them struggles for whatever reason could be big. Vanek and Smith package deal with salary retained could be just the thing.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

They got past us twice after getting players that would have filled holes for our roster as well but yeah, lets not learn anything from that.

Kunitz, I'll give you that, he was the kind of player we needed in 2009. Even then, he didn't fill our biggest needs (defense, goaltending).
Daley and Schultz would've made 0 difference on last year's Capitals roster. They're good offensively but garbage in their own end. Schultz is looking better this year but he won the Stanley Cup while watching from the press box. Trading for Hagelin was a wise move, but we didn't have what Anaheim asked for in return.

I'll tell you why they won the Cup last year. It's not Daley and Schultz. It's the depth guys popping out of nowhere. The guys like Sheary, Rust, Kuhnhackl, Dumoulin filling instantly the holes in their roster made the biggest difference. And of course, Matt Murray playing Vezina caliber goaltending in the playoffs.

 

[Revelation]

Kunitz, I'll give you that, he was the kind of player we needed in 2009. Even then, he didn't fill our biggest needs (defense, goaltending).
Daley and Schultz would've made 0 difference on last year's Capitals roster. They're good offensively but garbage in their own end. Schultz is looking better this year but he won the Stanley Cup while watching from the press box. Trading for Hagelin was a wise move, but we didn't have what Anaheim asked for in return.

I'll tell you why they won the Cup last year. It's not Daley and Schultz. It's the depth guys popping out of nowhere. The guys like Sheary, Rust, Kuhnhackl filling instantly the holes in their roster made the biggest difference.

The biggest thing that happened to them was trading Scuderi for Daley. It single handedly changed their defense from being a plodding dead puck abomination to one of the most mobile in the NHL. Schultz, yeah, we wouldn't have turned him around (he was meh for them even last season), but Daley is more than adequate defensively if used properly (as a puck rushing RD) with a mobile stay at home type (like Dumolin, or in our case Alzner/Schmidt/Orpik). There was also the story with his mother being terminally ill that affected him (and which he worked through while with the Pens). Daley is not good enough to excel in any system but he's good enough to excel in the right one. It's the same way that Orpik looked ECHL tier his last year with the Pens but actually plays well for the caps (though way overpaid still but he's not Erskine bad like he was for them).

Given that we lost to the Pens because our defensemen couldn't move the puck at all while their defense freely skated/airmailed it up the ice (their depth scoring was a byproduct of that), hell yeah Daley would have made a difference.

Hagelin worked out for them because they decided to pivot to a speed based system and he's an elite north south forechecker. We consciously made our bottom 6 slow and plodding by sticking Richards at 3C and Mojo out of position at RW. Unless they made Mojo 3C instead of Richards Hagelin wouldn't have done much for us. Daley definitely had a spot on our team over Weber, Chorney, Orpik, Schmidt and even Orlov the way they were playing towards the end of last season

Lightning quick puck movement from defense to offense runs the table now, which is why PMDs or even guys like Larsson who can at least play a competent transition game without necessarily being good offensively go for such an absurd premium. Forwards get stood up at the blue line while defensemen get plenty of space to accelerate and are almost impossible to check well through the neutral zone. The main reason we look better right now than we did last year is because Orlov-Niskanen is better at rushing the puck than any pairing we had then. Bura/Eller/Connolly being offensively reliable being reason #2 and helped by good defensive puck movement.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

The biggest thing that happened to them was trading Scuderi for Daley. It single handedly changed their defense from being a plodding dead puck abomination to one of the most mobile in the NHL. Schultz, yeah, we wouldn't have turned him around (he was meh for them even last season), but Daley is more than adequate defensively if used properly (as a puck rushing RD) with a mobile stay at home type (like Dumolin, or in our case Alzner/Schmidt/Orpik). There was also the story with his mother being terminally ill that affected him (and which he worked through while with the Pens). Daley is not good enough to excel in any system but he's good enough to excel in the right one. It's the same way that Orpik looked ECHL tier his last year with the Pens but actually plays well for the caps (though way overpaid still but he's not Erskine bad like he was for them).

Given that we lost to the Pens because our defensemen couldn't move the puck at all while their defense freely skated/airmailed it up the ice (their depth scoring was a byproduct of that), hell yeah Daley would have made a difference.

Hagelin worked out for them because they decided to pivot to a speed based system and he's an elite north south forechecker. We consciously made our bottom 6 slow and plodding by sticking Richards at 3C and Mojo out of position at RW. Unless they made Mojo 3C instead of Richards Hagelin wouldn't have done much for us. Daley definitely had a spot on our team over Weber, Chorney, Orpik, Schmidt and even Orlov the way they were playing towards the end of last season

Lightning quick puck movement from defense to offense runs the table now, which is why PMDs or even guys like Larsson who can at least play a competent transition game without necessarily being good offensively go for such an absurd premium. Forwards get stood up at the blue line while defensemen get plenty of space to accelerate and are almost impossible to check well through the neutral zone. The main reason we look better right now than we did last year is because Orlov-Niskanen is better at rushing the puck than any pairing we had then. Bura/Eller/Connolly being offensively reliable being reason #2 and helped by good defensive puck movement.

That's doing history backwards. As the Caps were constructed last year, they weren't ready to play a speed puck possession game. There's no guarantee that Daley would've fit well with us. I don't think I would've traded for him anyway. It's not like we had a Scuderi to get rid of.

We shouldn't try to be what we aren't. The Penguins have their identity, it's time to make ours. Right now we're a fast team, not quite as fast as they are but still faster than the majority of the league. On top of that, we're stingy as hell defensively, which is a plus compared to them. I know it didn't show in yesterday's loss but all the previous games we were allowing 1 goal or less.

 

[Revelation]

That's doing history backwards. As the Caps were constructed last year, they weren't ready to play a speed puck possession game. There's no guarantee that Daley would've fit well with us. I don't think I would've traded for him anyway. It's not like we had a Scuderi to get rid of.

We shouldn't try to be what we aren't. The Penguins have their identity, it's time to make ours. Right now we're a fast team, not quite as fast as they are but still faster than the majority of the league. On top of that, we're stingy as hell defensively, which is a plus compared to them. I know it didn't show in yesterday's loss but all the previous games we were allowing 1 goal or less.

We could have just offered up Chorney for Daley and the Hawks would have taken it in a flash, even with a little retention. They just needed cap sapce.

Caps were lacking mobility on defense just like the Pens before getting Daley. They lost because Orpik, Weber and Carlson were skating in mud, and Schmidt and Orlov were overextended to compensate despite being nowhere near ready (Schmidt a weak rookie and Orlov having lost a year and starting his development from scratch). The only pairing that looked good was Alzner Niskanen, and that was because they could actually skate with the Pens (even though they were still inferior in the puck moving department).

Bruins were the last team to win the cup with immobile defensemen, and theirs were on a different level than ours. You need Chara/Pronger level D to pull off winning with subpar skating defensemen.

If our identity is based on winning 2-1 games you might as well throw in the towel, since this team is not gonna be giving up 1-2 goals a game in the playoff against the pens+refs or rags+refs lol. Being stingy in the regular season when teams aren't paying the price to break your shell every damn play doesn't directly carry over into the playoffs when it's 110% effort all the time. Their only chance is to win 4-1 games and hope it holds up to 3-2 in the playoffs. Have 3 scoring lines any of which could score at any moment (like the Pens) with a 4th line that can chip in offensively (getting a top 6 F like Vanek would go a long way, there's others but he's been the best and costs only 2 mil), and defensemen that can move the damn puck up, preferably be able to skate it up if there's an opening (since that generates better offensive chances than passing through the neutral zone). Pens got freebie goals because Daley and Letang would just skate the puck in, and when we adjusted after struggling with it they started airmailing it. Our defense is good if everyone is healthy but if someone goes down we don't have any top 6 caliber replacements, while most playoff teams do. If we make a move on F/D/both then we're a more mobile Sharks with better goaltending and hopefully that's good enough this year. We simply don't have the personnel on D for playing exhausting zone defense and boxing other teams out for half the game.