According to Moneypuck, the Calgary Flames are a favorite to win the Stanley Cup

[BurnabyJoe7]

Their entire formula (as is with xGF%) is based on average goaltending. Vladar and markstrom both have under .900 save percentages this year which should put the flames near the bottom of the league when it comes to goaltending.

I still think they'll finish in a WC spot but they keep losing games and are running out of time to make up ground. Luckily for them the entire western conference is a shitshow and any of the teams currently in a playoff spot could miss out if they hit a cold streak.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

You said that very confidently considering not only does money puck actually have a shooting talent stat, it takes it into account as well.

you seem to be pretty confident they're just "unlucky" despite evidence on the contrary

Regardless all of Lindholm, Mangiapane, Toffoli, Huberdeau, and Kadri have scored at or on pace for a 30 goal season in their last 2 seasons, with Coleman and Dube having played at a 20 goal pace as well. This isn’t exactly a team bereft of shooting talent to begin with until our entire team had this down year.

they're having the "down year" because they lost 2 of the their best players and replaced them with 2 lesser players

 

[Bleedred]

I'm not trying to trash this site, because I find it VERY USEFUL, but I'm a little skeptical of some of their goalie stats and some of them differ drastically from evolving hockey's.

I think money puck's goalie stats certainly flatter a few goalies and kind of shortchange some others.

They really seem to flatter Marc-Andre Fleury compared to evolving hockey. They kind of flatter Mackenzie Blackwood, which I'm not sure if they necessarily flatter him, as he's a positive in GSAx on evolving hockey also, but they seem to shortchange Vanecek while evolving hockey has him in the top-10 in GSAx this year.

They both seem to be in heavy agreement that Elvis, Spencer Martin, Hack Campbell and Jonathan Quick have all been shit, and that Ullmark, Sorokin, Hellebuyck and Vasilevskiy have all been really good.

Both sites really flatter Markstrom and have him as just above breaking even, which I find it to be really baffling.

 

[Pierce Hawthorne]

It's definitely too high.... But the Flames should be a lot better then where they are in the standings. They're getting some truly awful goaltending from Markstrom this year and have been lacking finish ability a little bit.


They're a team that, if these things balance out over the rest of the year, likely will be very dangerous down the stretch and into the playoffs.


That said, when you watch them play and specifically watch Markstrom, you have a real hard time believing that they actually will balance out. He looks completely done as an average goalie, let alone a good goalie.

 

[MikeyMike01]

Nothing so useless as advanced hockey stats

 

[Bounces R Way]

So is that like a hockey comedy site or something?

 

[Yepthatsme]

you seem to be pretty confident they're just "unlucky" despite evidence on the contrary


they're having the "down year" because they lost 2 of the their best players and replaced them with 2 lesser players

…I have been abundantly clear us not being able to get stable goaltending, the execution being off, and a terrible powerplay have been the driving reasons Calgary has been mediocre this year, no? Luck has played a part though, we’ve seemingly been missing atleast two top 4 defenseman in our lineup for 1/3 of the games this season, have the most posts hit league wide, and have an abysmal record in 1 goal games (13 for 34 now).

Gaudreau and Tkachuk had no effect on Markstrom having the worst year of his career, Mangiapane who shared the ice with Gaudreau a whopping 6% of his ice time last season having the worst year of his young career, Kylington’s personal issues, and Huberdeau/Weegar having their worst offensive seasons in a long time. Plenty of extenuating circumstances going wrong for the team this year other than the personnel swap.

 

[General Disarray]

I feel like people have been calling them dangerous, contender, best D group, etc for a few years now and each year they disappoint. Maybe this is them

 

[BruinsFan37]

Only part of Moneypuck I take 100% seriously is whether or not a team is making/missing the playoffs.

Everything else is suspect, rigged to induce betting for/against teams.

 

[madmike77]

To be fair, this is why I think the Flames should just mostly maintain what they’re doing now and see how it goes next season. I think they’re shot this season.

They have their issues but they’ve had extraordinarily bad puck luck and goaltending — both of which are fixable (especially if they give Wolf a shot). And the forwards should get better as they get used to playing with one another.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

To be fair, this is why I think the Flames should just mostly maintain what they’re doing now and see how it goes next season. I think they’re shot this season.

They have their issues but they’ve had extraordinarily bad puck luck and goaltending — both of which are fixable (especially if they give Wolf a shot). And the forwards should get better as they get used to playing with one another.

man I hope so...stay away from elite talent in the draft while Kadri and Huberdeau get older

 

[Mez]

To be fair, this is why I think the Flames should just mostly maintain what they’re doing now and see how it goes next season. I think they’re shot this season.

They have their issues but they’ve had extraordinarily bad puck luck and goaltending — both of which are fixable (especially if they give Wolf a shot). And the forwards should get better as they get used to playing with one another.

Yah its not puck luck...that can be said for small samples but not 50+ games...they just lack players with skill/finish...also their system has them shoot from the bleachers which will also makes it looks like "Bad puck luck,"

 

[Machinehead]

I'm not trying to trash this site, because I find it VERY USEFUL, but I'm a little skeptical of some of their goalie stats and some of them differ drastically from evolving hockey's.

How dare you have a level-headed take that isn't "advanced stats are completely useless."

What's a better source for a playoff prediction? The pundits? Your drunk uncle? God forbid the standings which are a glorified save percentage ranking?

Honestly? I could see it. I don't know what's wrong with the Flames that they're struggling to make it, but if they get in, the West is as tough as a McDonald's ball pit and they're one of the few teams I actually find impressive on paper.

Also, I think the West is the biggest reason some of those teams have an elevated "win Cup" chance. There's fewer threats to the top teams in the West whereas any of the teams in the East can beat any of the other teams.

Just chucking shots from everywhere can actually work in the playoffs. The Kings rode it to two Cups and the Lightning have done it from time to time depending on the series.

Their love for the Panthers, I find a lot more questionable. They're a not-worth-writing-home-about 8th in xGF% and in the crazy ass East.

 

[Machinehead]

Their entire formula (as is with xGF%) is based on average goaltending. Vladar and markstrom both have under .900 save percentages this year which should put the flames near the bottom of the league when it comes to goaltending.

I still think they'll finish in a WC spot but they keep losing games and are running out of time to make up ground. Luckily for them the entire western conference is a shitshow and any of the teams currently in a playoff spot could miss out if they hit a cold streak.

Well that's the thing. It's not like Markstrom is historically a bad goaltender.

The ebb and flow of goaltending is basically random and he can just get hot tomorrow.

 

[TGOSnipes99]

This is why you only use stats as part of the equation lol

Flames take a lot of perimeter shots, especially from their dmen. They always have a high Corsi, etc. They don't get a ton of HDC and when they do, they can't finish much b/c of a lack of any elite game breaking talent.

Goaltending has also not bee great.

 

[GlassesJacketShirt]

My perception is that Calgary is an average-ish team offensively, and the analytics suggest the defense is well above average, almost top-5. I can buy that, and it should be enough to make them #2-3 team in this year's pacific division.

The outlier here has to be Markstrom. An .889 save percentage, with this defense, is absolute trash and he deserves scorn.

Cancel that, Sutter deserves the scorn for constantly going back to him.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

Well that's the thing. It's not like Markstrom is historically a bad goaltender.

The ebb and flow of goaltending is basically random and he can just get hot tomorrow.

Yeah he could but he’s also 33 years old and been terrible all year. It’s pretty unlikely at this point that he turns it around and far more likely that Father Time has caught up to him. He’s at the age where a lot of goalies start to break down.

 

[MessierII]

…I have been abundantly clear us not being able to get stable goaltending, the execution being off, and a terrible powerplay have been the driving reasons Calgary has been mediocre this year, no? Luck has played a part though, we’ve seemingly been missing atleast two top 4 defenseman in our lineup for 1/3 of the games this season, have the most posts hit league wide, and have an abysmal record in 1 goal games (13 for 34 now).

Gaudreau and Tkachuk had no effect on Markstrom having the worst year of his career, Mangiapane who shared the ice with Gaudreau a whopping 6% of his ice time last season having the worst year of his young career, Kylington’s personal issues, and Huberdeau/Weegar having their worst offensive seasons in a long time. Plenty of extenuating circumstances going wrong for the team this year other than the personnel swap.

Isn’t some adversity to be expected after literally nothing going wrong last year? You didn’t expect everyone to have a career year again and lose the least man games to injury in 16 years or whatever it was to repeat? The flames regressing hard this year was to be expected.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I was going to go into a spiel about "paths to the Cup" not being equal, but something really does seem off with their metrics.

Calgary is in a race with a handful of teams for the final wildcard spot.

Place	Team	Points Pct	Make Playoffs %	Win Cup %
WC1	Edmonton	.596	92.1	9.4
WC2	Minnesota	.580	70.5	4.6
out	Calgary	.563	83.2	10.7
out	Nashville	.537	9.6	0.2
out	St. Louis	.491	1.0	0

So, I get that the model could be saying that Calgary is due for a big breakout and is actually the best of these 5 teams. But how is it that they have so much better of a Cup chance than Edmonton, who has a much better chance of making the playoffs in the first place?

Then looking at who they would be playing in the first round:

Place	Team	Points Pct	Make Playoffs %	Win Cup %
1st	Vegas	.643	93.7	4.3
2nd	Dallas	.632	94	2.8

Moneypuck has Calgary as a substantial favorite to advance past those teams, despite being the road team, finishing lower in the standings, and having a much lower chance of even being in the first round to begin with.

It seems like they're basically saying Calgary is due to run the table in March and April, and that all the teams ahead of them are due to implode. It's hard to square the numbers here with the reality of how these teams are actually playing, so I can only guess it's based on the idea that 2021-22 was the "real Flames" and that they are all going to break out and start replicating those stats any day now.

The Moneypuck model has CGY as a strong ES xGF% team, much stronger than VGK or DAL. They also have a higher ex PP xGF%; based both on efficiency and share of PP time.

I'm less sure why they're ahead of EDM, who's even stronger in those two categories. I think it might be the difference between Even Strength and 5v5. EDM is really good at non-5v5 ES. Those situations are rare in the playoffs.

But these factors are all pretty close and can swing in a day or two. Presently it models EDM with the best chances in the west, CGY in third (WPG at 2nd). What's really crazy is the combined cup equity for the Canadian teams. Might be the True North's best chance in a while.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

If Sutter was smart, he would run with Dan Vladar in the playoffs. You ain't winning anything with Markstrom playing as bad as he is this year.

 

[Bleedred]

Yeah he could but he’s also 33 years old and been terrible all year. It’s pretty unlikely at this point that he turns it around and far more likely that Father Time has caught up to him. He’s at the age where a lot of goalies start to break down.

Maybe

But I tend to give goalies (and most players) the benefit of the doubt, until they have multiple bad years in a row. Unless they're like LATE 30's or fresh off serious injury.

Which is why I wasn't buying last year's Bobrovsky and Quick as having ''bounced back'' and I was pretty spot on with my proclamation that they would be more like they were the last several seasons this year than they were last year. Bob is back to his first two years with the Panthers, while this year's Quick is literally about as well-done as any goalie I've seen in a long time. He's like as close as it gets to the idea that a goalie that is truly bad never has good games. Somehow he even has a shutout earlier this year.

Both are has-been's that had up year's last season.

I genuinely feel bad for Quick, as almost every game turns into a blowout and it's kind of sad to see him in this state. I really hope he doesn't play next year. Fleury shouldn't either, but that's another topic.

Last year was a career year for Markstrom, which I don't think he'll ever repeat, but I also don't think he'll be this bad next year.

I mostly agree with you that he's at an age where a lot of goalies start to break down. Actually, he's older than the age most goalies start breaking down in recent years, but I don't think he's QUITE as bad as he's been this year. He may never have a good season again or he could easily have a pretty good next year and possibly the year after or he could have a pretty good season next year and have close to a repeat of this one in 24-25.

 

[80shockeywasbuns]

It's a glitch for sure. They are two points out of the wildcard and only a +5 goal differential team on the year. There's not an analytical formula alive where that makes sense at this point in the season.

I mean isn’t that the point of the analytics? To separate results (standings points, goal differential) from actual quality of play which is projectable?

 

[Bleedred]

If Sutter was smart, he would run with Dan Vladar in the playoffs. You ain't winning anything with Markstrom playing as bad as he is this year.

He hasn't been good either, but also hasn't gotten the leash to be able to suck as much as Markstrom this year or to be a whole lot better than Markstrom this year.

This could easily be the Wild in a week if they keep going back to Fleury's CREMAINS and the difference between Fleury and Gustavsson is even more stupider than the difference Brodeur and Schneider in 2013-2014. The Wild have really PUNTED a lot of points on a washed up sack of shit in Fleury this year.

 

[Figgy44]

I mean, I love the dose of hopium... but seriously though, wat?

 

[madmike77]

man I hope so...stay away from elite talent in the draft while Kadri and Huberdeau get older

They’re nowhere close to being bad enough to draft elite talent.