According to Moneypuck, the Calgary Flames are a favorite to win the Stanley Cup

[snipes]

Volume perimeter shooting low percentage shots skews the model.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Hey, let's do an article about who has the best chance at winning bases on this formula we created !

**results**

You know what, let's not post that article and pretend we didn't do this

 

[Number8]

Will Calgary’s Analytics Cup Parade be real or virtual?

 

[Fantomas]

Add Dustin Wolf to the mix and profit.

 

[ijuka]

Flames have been overrated by sportsbooks, and analytics models such as Moneypuck, all season.

Flames have done well in analytics, but their results have been terrible. And no, a streak like 13-7-5 is not great either - that's just barely over 50% winrate.

The issue is, analytics assume that advanced stats are worth the same for every team. In reality, some teams are better at taking advantage of expected goals than others.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

2nd in shots for and against. The only team in the Pacific other than the Oilers that scare you when they are playing their game imo

2nd seems wayyyy too high though

Add Dustin Wolf to the mix and profit.

True he could be a game changer but that just isn’t the Flames way unfortunately

 

[njdevil26]

This site is crazy. The Devils have the 14th best odds to win the cup despite being the 3rd best team in the league... and being the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league the entire season.

They are 14-3-2 in their last 19 games so it's not like they are dropping currently.

I'm not sitting here saying the Devils are going to win the cup or anything... but these numbers are wild.

 

[93LEAFS]

It's a glitch for sure. They are two points out of the wildcard and only a +5 goal differential team on the year. There's not an analytical formula alive where that makes sense at this point in the season.

They are top 3 in pretty much all shot based metrics at 5v5. Historically those teams have done well in the playoffs, I believe when the Kings won a cup as an 8 seed under Sutter they were a dominant puck possession team by shot metrics top 4 in both CF% and FF%.

Do I think that will repeat itself here and the Flames should be the 2nd favorite? No. But, Calgary being strong in those metrics combined with having one of the easier paths division/conference wise has skewed it.

 

[ijuka]

They are top 3 in pretty much all shot based metrics at 5v5. Historically those teams have done well in the playoffs, I believe when the Kings won a cup as an 8 seed under Sutter they were a dominant puck possession team by shot metrics top 4 in both CF% and FF%.

Do I think that will repeat itself here and the Flames should be the 2nd favorite? No. But, Calgary being strong in those metrics combined with having one of the easier paths division/conference wise has skewed it.

Yeah, that's what happens when you constantly take low danger shots. Flames constantly lose while outshooting the opposing goaltender.

And that might be true in 5on5, however if we look at all situations, Calgary is a clear standout in comparison to the entire league in "quantity over quality". Leafs, by the way, are the opposite - quality over quantity. No wonder they're doing much better.

 

[SUX2BU]

2nd?

 

[WetcoastOrca]

It would be crazy if they did!
The first time in history that a non playoff team won the Cup.

 

[thaman8765678]

I guess our playoff chances go down to 84% after today's game.

 

[ijuka]

I guess our playoff chances go down to 84% after today's game.

I bet the cup chances will go up though, Flames really dominated Flyers in 5on5 corsi.

 

[madmike77]

NHL Playoff Odds -MoneyPuck 2023 Playoff & Cup Odds

According to Moneypuck, the Flames are 2nd only to the Carolina Hurricanes in Stanley Cup chances. They are ahead of teams like the Bruins and Avalanche apparently.

How can this website be so delusional? How can a team that is a coin flip to make the playoffs be a contender for the cup?

I think websites like this which rely on analytics have major flaws. I have watched every Flames game this year, and I give the team a 0% chance to win 2 rounds if they were to sneak in.

That makes no sense. I mean if you’re using advanced stats, the Flames are a much better team than their record. But their awful goaltending likely isn’t going to change. I’d guess they miss the playoffs entirely.

 

[AceKing21]

NJ is 3rd in the league in points and MP has them #13 in their power rankings.

NYR is 5th in the league in points and MP has them #20 in their power rankings.

CGY is 16th in the league in points and MP has them #3 in their power rankings.

FLA is 19th in the league and MP has them #6 in their power rankings.

Thats crazy. Make it make sense! smh

 

[madmike77]

What analytics show Calgary being cup contenders? not a single one.

If you’re a big believer in Corsi then technically they’re a top-5 team. But their goaltending and PP suck. They’re also awful at burying their scoring chances.

Without looking, I’m just assuming this site uses advanced stats as their sole determinin factor. Because yeah the Flames have had good advanced stats all year. But that counts for nothing if you have bad goaltending and don’t finish your chances.

EDIT: Yeah it’s pure Corsi. The Flames are 2nd in the league behind Carolina. So I guess that’s what they’re using.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

If you’re a big believer in Corsi then technically they’re a top-5 team. But their goaltending and PP suck. They’re also awful at burying their scoring chances.

Without looking, I’m just assuming this site uses advanced stats as their sole determinin factor. Because yeah the Flames have had good advanced stats all year. But that counts for nothing if you have bad goaltending and don’t finish your chances.

EDIT: Yeah it’s pure Corsi. The Flames are 2nd in the league behind Carolina. So I guess that’s what they’re using.

Kind of a flawed methodology to just ignore goaltending.
Markstrom has been really bad all year.

 

[zxcvnm]

This one might not be useful either.

 

[BRobMint]

The sooner people stop taking these BS advanced stat prediction sites seriously the better it’ll be for sports fans

 

[SheldonJPlankton]

I'd be curious if anyone had the Habs highly rated the year they were SC finalists?

 

[Ezekial]

Analytics overvalue quantity. Not only because it affects your scoring chances positively, but it’s also tied to possession numbers that in turn make you look like a better defensive team.

Flames should be punished in some statistical ways for not turning those stats into good enough results, yet it mostly just shows in their record.

That happens to be the perfect stat to show what a team does with their advanced metrics.

 

[Score08]

Yes but what will their e/cf% for respect level in the hs line be?
Let’s bump this thread post SC and see how accurate or effective metrics truly are in sports. This should either make or break MP as an authentic source of information or just vudoo gibberish.

Stat geeks and legalized gambling will be the death of entertainment in watching sports. F your numbers .

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

Over the last 2 months, Calgary is 13-7-5 which is good but not great, but at 5v5 during that stretch they are 1st in CF%, 1st in SF%, 2nd in xGF%, and 5th in goals for. They are being tanked hard this season by having the 9th worst powerplay and the 2nd worst PDO. Money puck really values 5v5 play and the West is viewed as an extremely easy path so that’s why the model loves Calgary so much.

Basically Calgary has been one of the best teams in the league at tilting the ice 5v5 as the season progressed, but the execution just seems off. There’s really no way of quantifying that, so to stats and models they are a top contender who is just extremely unlucky so far.

nah, cause not all shots are equal and that's where the "model" crumbles
an Alex Ovechkin shot on goal isn't the same as a Trevor Lewis shot on goal

 

[Yepthatsme]

nah, cause not all shots are equal and that's where the "model" crumbles
an Alex Ovechkin shot on goal isn't the same as a Trevor Lewis shot on goal

You said that very confidently considering not only does money puck actually have a shooting talent stat, it takes it into account as well.

Regardless all of Lindholm, Mangiapane, Toffoli, Huberdeau, and Kadri have scored at or on pace for a 30 goal season in their last 2 seasons, with Coleman and Dube having played at a 20 goal pace as well. This isn’t exactly a team bereft of shooting talent to begin with until our entire team had this down year.

 

[Bleedred]

One of the weirdest things about this site and their playoff odds chart is that at one point there was a better than 50% chance that 10 teams in the East would make the playoffs. Like 10 different teams had a greater than 50% chance to get in.

Now only 7 teams in the East they have at greater than 50%, actually only 7 teams they have either a greater than 43.2% chance of getting in. And Pittsburgh has the 7th highest odds in the East at 64% and the other top 6 teams in the East are all 97.3% or higher.

I’m thinking maybe because of how crowded it is around the bubble right now and there’s currently like 4-5 teams on pace to finish between 86 and 91 points in the East.

They love the f*** out of the Panthers, who they currently have at 38.7% and the Sabres at 43.2%. The Sabres literally have 6 games in hand on them, including two more head to head matchups with them, one this week. And when this is updated tomorrow morning with the Panthers win today, I firmly expect them to either swap spots with Buffalo or be right where Buffalo is. They’ve been calling for a Panthers second half run that rivals their late season 17-18 push, which fell short in the end.

They had the Panthers at over 50% for a while there, before they had some bad losses to St. Louis and Nashville. I sometimes call the site MoneyPanthers.

I swear the Capitals went from 60% to now currently 16.2% in like a week.