According to Moneypuck, the Calgary Flames are a favorite to win the Stanley Cup
- Thread starter thaman8765678
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They’d be around my 15th choice. But I’m not using analytics. Lol.
Realgud
Jersey ads are a disgrace
Toronto with the third best odds to "make 2nd round" kek
The West is terrible and of the teams projected to make it they have a decent path and matchup well. I guess their play deceives their underlying stats.
Would it be so surprising if another Darryl Sutter team grinded their way to a cup?
Would it be so surprising if another Darryl Sutter team grinded their way to a cup?
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
I was going to go into a spiel about "paths to the Cup" not being equal, but something really does seem off with their metrics.
Calgary is in a race with a handful of teams for the final wildcard spot.
So, I get that the model could be saying that Calgary is due for a big breakout and is actually the best of these 5 teams. But how is it that they have so much better of a Cup chance than Edmonton, who has a much better chance of making the playoffs in the first place?
Then looking at who they would be playing in the first round:
Moneypuck has Calgary as a substantial favorite to advance past those teams, despite being the road team, finishing lower in the standings, and having a much lower chance of even being in the first round to begin with.
It seems like they're basically saying Calgary is due to run the table in March and April, and that all the teams ahead of them are due to implode. It's hard to square the numbers here with the reality of how these teams are actually playing, so I can only guess it's based on the idea that 2021-22 was the "real Flames" and that they are all going to break out and start replicating those stats any day now.
Calgary is in a race with a handful of teams for the final wildcard spot.
| Place | Team | Points Pct | Make Playoffs % | Win Cup % |
| WC1 | Edmonton | .596 | 92.1 | 9.4 |
| WC2 | Minnesota | .580 | 70.5 | 4.6 |
| out | Calgary | .563 | 83.2 | 10.7 |
| out | Nashville | .537 | 9.6 | 0.2 |
| out | St. Louis | .491 | 1.0 | 0 |
So, I get that the model could be saying that Calgary is due for a big breakout and is actually the best of these 5 teams. But how is it that they have so much better of a Cup chance than Edmonton, who has a much better chance of making the playoffs in the first place?
Then looking at who they would be playing in the first round:
| Place | Team | Points Pct | Make Playoffs % | Win Cup % |
| 1st | Vegas | .643 | 93.7 | 4.3 |
| 2nd | Dallas | .632 | 94 | 2.8 |
Moneypuck has Calgary as a substantial favorite to advance past those teams, despite being the road team, finishing lower in the standings, and having a much lower chance of even being in the first round to begin with.
It seems like they're basically saying Calgary is due to run the table in March and April, and that all the teams ahead of them are due to implode. It's hard to square the numbers here with the reality of how these teams are actually playing, so I can only guess it's based on the idea that 2021-22 was the "real Flames" and that they are all going to break out and start replicating those stats any day now.
Over the last 2 months, Calgary is 13-7-5 which is good but not great, but at 5v5 during that stretch they are 1st in CF%, 1st in SF%, 2nd in xGF%, and 5th in goals for. They are being tanked hard this season by having the 9th worst powerplay and the 2nd worst PDO. Money puck really values 5v5 play and the West is viewed as an extremely easy path so that’s why the model loves Calgary so much.
Basically Calgary has been one of the best teams in the league at tilting the ice 5v5 as the season progressed, but the execution just seems off. There’s really no way of quantifying that, so to stats and models they are a top contender who is just extremely unlucky so far.
Basically Calgary has been one of the best teams in the league at tilting the ice 5v5 as the season progressed, but the execution just seems off. There’s really no way of quantifying that, so to stats and models they are a top contender who is just extremely unlucky so far.
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I think the advanced stats are flawed. We shoot from anywhere and most of our shots are actually low danger.
If you have 40 shots from the point with no screen and the other team has 3 breakawys, I would take the breakaways every time.
tarheelhockey
Offside Review Specialist
Speaking as a fan of a team which was routinely overvalued by these metrics, for some reason the models simply cannot wrap their head around the idea of a bad goalie or a bad power play staying bad. There seems to be this assumption that the Dan Vladars of the world (.901 this year, .902 career) are just going to suddenly regress to the league average, and the same with dysfunctional PP units.
edit: and to @thaman8765678 's point above, same with shooting%. Canes have made a tradition of crushing the Corsi metrics because they just take random shots from all over the place. Prior to picking up several elite shooters, the models were telling us that a bunch of grinders were due for 30-goal breakouts.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
That's pretty whack, but I imagine it has a lot to do with how shitty the West is regarded, and how crowded the field of contenders is in the East. You might have to play two or three tough rounds to make the Finals out of the East.
It's probably a lesser number in the West, especially for any competent team to reside in the Pacific, a team that seems built for the playoffs (where the checking is tighter and defense is at a premium). That could explain giving a Pacific team better odds than, say, one of the Atlantic teams. The Atlantic teams are better, but they're going to have to beat up on each other first to reach the third round.
Still, it''s too high. I think all would agree on that. It's not much of a commentary on how the oddsmakers perceive other Pacific teams like Edmonton, for example.
It's probably a lesser number in the West, especially for any competent team to reside in the Pacific, a team that seems built for the playoffs (where the checking is tighter and defense is at a premium). That could explain giving a Pacific team better odds than, say, one of the Atlantic teams. The Atlantic teams are better, but they're going to have to beat up on each other first to reach the third round.
Still, it''s too high. I think all would agree on that. It's not much of a commentary on how the oddsmakers perceive other Pacific teams like Edmonton, for example.
Foppberg
Registered User
The Flames are more likely to miss completely than contend for the cup.
DickSmehlik
Registered User
Quick, someone tweet this article to Allan Walsh for his thoughts.
AfroThunder396
[citation needed]
NJ is 3rd in the league in points and MP has them #13 in their power rankings.
NYR is 5th in the league in points and MP has them #20 in their power rankings.
CGY is 16th in the league in points and MP has them #3 in their power rankings.
FLA is 19th in the league and MP has them #6 in their power rankings.
NYR is 5th in the league in points and MP has them #20 in their power rankings.
CGY is 16th in the league in points and MP has them #3 in their power rankings.
FLA is 19th in the league and MP has them #6 in their power rankings.
Uncle Scrooge
Hockey Bettor
Analytics overvalue quantity. Not only because it affects your scoring chances positively, but it’s also tied to possession numbers that in turn make you look like a better defensive team.
Flames should be punished in some statistical ways for not turning those stats into good enough results, yet it mostly just shows in their record.
Flames should be punished in some statistical ways for not turning those stats into good enough results, yet it mostly just shows in their record.
SeanMoneyHands
Registered User
- Apr 18, 2019
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If there’s one team this year who has underachieved and could turn it around in the playoffs with the flick of the switch, it’s the Flames. But they have too many what ifs. Their coaching is shot, their starter is shot, their offense is shot. Decent blueline but this team is struggling big time to create offense. Losing to basement teams in the season is never a good sign for any team.
WhereAreTheCookies
Registered User
Their odds formula is completely messed up. Back on December 8th the Sabres had a 12-13-1 record, and somehow had the 5th best odds to win the cup. This was not long after their 8 game losing streak, but the day after they blew out the Jackets. At the same time, on December 8th the Devils were 21-4-1, and somehow had worse odds than the Sabres to win the cup or to make the final despite better odds for every other round.
Broken formula is broken.
Broken formula is broken.
InfinityIggy
Zagidulin's Dad
Just let us have this it’s the only hopium we have left alright.
That was a legitimate concern at the start of the season, but a lot of fans had that narrative stuck in their head and didn’t notice Calgary actually vastly improved at creating dangerous looks. Over the last 2 months they are 6th in scoring chances for, and as I already pointed out are 5th when it comes to actually scoring goals at 5v5. They also just happen to own the third worst team save percentage league wide during that stretch, and a powerplay that’s doing nothing to help either.
Money pucks philosophy is seemingly whoever tilts the ice most at 5v5 will generally win most games. Calgary is amongst the leagues best at that. What they seemingly don’t care about is Calgary not being able to buy a save this season and a horrific powerplay (with the 5th highest disparity between short handed and powerplay time to boot)
Jumptheshark
Rebooting myself
PensandCaps
Beddy Tlueger
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WarriorofTime
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It's a glitch for sure. They are two points out of the wildcard and only a +5 goal differential team on the year. There's not an analytical formula alive where that makes sense at this point in the season.
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GeeoffBrown
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I don't think delusional is the right word. I assume they are just using some mathematical formula that doesn't account for the fact that the Flames can't bury their scoring chances or get average goaltending
