Post-Game Talk: Point taken

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

No one believes Skinner is a .920 goalie. He'll have these little hot peaks when the team around him is locked in defensively, same thing as last season, and then he'll have a stretch where he reverts back more to the mean and is an adventure in the playoffs.

We get what we pay for 2.6 million, for about 27th best in save percentage in the league is about right.

Unfortunately we don't spend the money saved on goaltending on anything smart which makes the whole thing moot.

There's only 4 of those in the league right now that have played a significant portion of the season. Wasn't it previously "He's not even a .900 goalie"?

 

[Soundwave]

your boy John Gibson has a worse save % than Skinner since December 1st

You want to take a guess what Skinner's save percentage would be on Anaheim because you're smoking crack if you think it would be the same as here. It would be below .890 probably, he wouldn't even be the back up in Anaheim, he'd be the third string behind Dostal and Gibson sitting in the AHL.

Don't kid yourself.

His numbers here are inflated playing insulated behind one of the best defensive systems in the league.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

On the basis of continuing to rag on his play from October, we really should still be carving up the following players because what they've done since doesn't matter apparently.

McDavid
Hyman
RNH
Bouchard
Nurse
Skinner (the new cult favourite)
Emberson
Etc

Using the same standards, all of these players should also continue to be on the hit list because of "full season" stats.



Why are we still completely fixated on October when they have been objectively good and improving since?

Isn’t McDavid like top 5 in scoring though? That’s not comparable to skinner.

RNH and hyman haven’t been good enough this year on the whole but have much better track records of great - elite play.

We saw skinner almost single handedly try to lose us a playoff series.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

You want to take a guess what Skinner's save percentage would be on Anaheim because you're smoking crack if you think it would be the same as here. It would be below .890 probably, he wouldn't even be the back up in Anaheim, he'd be the third string behind Dostal and Gibson sitting in the AHL.

Don't kid yourself.

His numbers here are inflated playing insulated behind one of the best defensive systems in the league.

I wager Draisatl's numbers would be significantly less on Anaheim too. And probably most of our players. But Skinner's not on Anaheim, he's on the Oilers. Maybe McDavid puts up 100 goals a year on the Colorado Avalanche. We'll never know.

 

[guymez]

On the basis of continuing to rag on his play from October, we really should still be carving up the following players because what they've done since doesn't matter apparently.

McDavid
Hyman
RNH
Bouchard
Nurse
Skinner (the new cult favourite)
Emberson
Etc

Using the same standards, all of these players should also continue to be on the hit list because of "full season" stats.



Why are we still completely fixated on October when they have been objectively good and improving since?

Thanks for posting this.
I was going to suggest looking at the breakdown using 3 equal segments of 17 games which brings us to 51 games.
That will provide some numbers that wont be so skewed by the underwhelming early season performances.
A much fairer way to detrmine performance...especially for a goalie.

I guess though that wouldnt feed into the cult objective to villainize Skinner because it would clearly show that his game has improved immensely since the initial 17 games.
I havent looked but I would bet that Skinners numbers (over the most recent 17 games) are in the top 10- 15 in the League. Pretty damn good value for one of the lowest paid starting goalies in the NHL.

 

[Soundwave]

I wager Draisatl's numbers would be significantly less on Anaheim too. And probably most of our players. But Skinner's not on Anaheim, he's on the Oilers. Maybe McDavid puts up 100 goals a year on the Colorado Avalanche. We'll never know.

It means we're not getting the most out of the defensive system we play. He's a sub .900 goalie on most teams in this league, the only teams he would maybe start for is Philly, Pittsburgh, maaaybe Buffalo, and eh maybe Columbus?

Even those 4 teams I somewhat doubt he wouldn't get outplayed by someone else there, he would crater hard without the elite defensive structure that Knob/Coffey have brought here and the fact that McDavid/Drai tilt the ice for a huge chunk of every game.

 

[K1984]

He is what he is, if we face a good goalie who's really on their game in the playoffs, probably that will be really, really tough. Stu isn't up to elevating his game that high.

He's .902-ish this year and that's about right. On many other teams he would be sub-.900, and he's a starter on maybe 4 or 5 teams tops in the league, we're the only playoff team he'd be a starter for.

The fact that this is the concern tells us everything we need to know.

A goalie really on their game in the playoffs should not be a hurdle that this team can't jump over. That isn't a Skinner issue to solve, that's a (purportedly) one of the best scoring teams in the world problem to overcome.

Similar to last night, if Skinner has a quality start, but we finish absolutely nothing, that is not Skinner's fault. If we go into a playoff series and Skinner plays well, but we lose the series because we can't cash more than 1 or 2 per game, that is not Skinner's fault.

The goal posts get constantly moved here as it pertains to him. First it's SV%, then when SV% is fine for a long stretch and the majority of the season, it's "full season" stats we have to look at. Then when those start to improve, it starts to become his fault that the group in front can't finish anything.

 

[brentashton]

They'll turn it around and say that the Oilers just don't play well against top teams

You’re rolling today!

 

[Soundwave]

The fact that this is the concern tells us everything we need to know.

A goalie really on their game in the playoffs should not be a hurdle that this team can't jump over. That isn't a Skinner issue to solve, that's a (purportedly) one of the best scoring teams in the world problem to overcome.

Similar to last night, if Skinner has a quality start, but we finish absolutely nothing, that is not Skinner's fault. If we go into a playoff series and Skinner plays well, but we lose the series because we can't cash more than 1 or 2 per game, that is not Skinner's fault.

The goal posts get constantly moved here as it pertains to him. First it's SV%, then when SV% is fine for a long stretch and the majority of the season, it's "full season" stats we have to look at. Then when those start to improve, it starts to become his fault that the group in front can't finish anything.

Goaltending makes a massive difference, as an example we had no business beating the Red Wings in 2006, they were hands down probably the best team in the league with a loaded forward group that could run circles around us.

We won because we had Roloson in net and they had the Skinner-esque Manny Legace in net.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

It means we're not getting the most out of the defensive system we play. He's a sub .900 goalie on most teams in this league, the only teams he would maybe start for is Philly, Pittsburgh, maaaybe Buffalo, and eh maybe Columbus?

Even those 4 teams I somewhat doubt he wouldn't get outplayed by someone else there, he would crater hard without the elite defensive structure that Knob/Coffey have brought here and the fact that McDavid/Drai tilt the ice for a huge chunk of every game.

Who knows? It's useless to speculate who might do what on what team. Maybe John Gibson turns into Khabibulin here. Or Jason LaBarbera, or post Kings series Mike Smith. Or Ilya Bryzgalov.

 

[K1984]

Isn’t McDavid like top 5 in scoring though? That’s not comparable to skinner.

RNH and hyman haven’t been good enough this year on the whole but have much better track records of great - elite play.

We saw skinner almost single handedly try to lose us a playoff series.

He'd be #1 if he didn't dog it in October.

Just like Skinner would have really nice "full season" stats had he also not dogged it in October.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

He'd be #1 if he didn't dog it in October.

Just like Skinner would have really nice "full season" stats had he also not dogged it in October.

Remember when McDavid scored 60 goals a couple years ago? That was nice...

 

[Soundwave]

Who knows? It's useless to speculate who might do what on what team. Maybe John Gibson turns into Khabibulin here. Or Jason LaBarbera, or post Kings series Mike Smith. Or Ilya Bryzgalov.

Yeah I think when you are getting to this point of performing mental gymnastics you know the argument is true, you just don't want to admit it.

He would not be a starter on any other playoff team, the only reason he is here is because his only competition is Pickard, a literal AHL goalie.

I don't think on Anaheim he's even the back-up. He's not outplaying Dostal or Gibson, we all see how his game is prone to crater when the D here is not playing relatively tight, he breaks hard, imagine that being the game to game reality for him, he probably would wash out of the league fast.

On a legit bad team he would bomb.

2.6 million is about fair for Stu, we're getting what we pay for. Cam Talbot is better than him and he makes about 2.5.

 

[guymez]

The fact that this is the concern tells us everything we need to know.

A goalie really on their game in the playoffs should not be a hurdle that this team can't jump over. That isn't a Skinner issue to solve, that's a (purportedly) one of the best scoring teams in the world problem to overcome.

Similar to last night, if Skinner has a quality start, but we finish absolutely nothing, that is not Skinner's fault. If we go into a playoff series and Skinner plays well, but we lose the series because we can't cash more than 1 or 2 per game, that is not Skinner's fault.

The goal posts get constantly moved here as it pertains to him. First it's SV%, then when SV% is fine for a long stretch and the majority of the season, it's "full season" stats we have to look at. Then when those start to improve, it starts to become his fault that the group in front can't finish anything.

I agree.
I see it as a lazy (and woefully incomplete) way to try and determine the teams issues.

 

[Soundwave]

He'd be #1 if he didn't dog it in October.

Just like Skinner would have really nice "full season" stats had he also not dogged it in October.

October is basically what Skinner would look like on a lot of other teams.

The Oilers have to play with a stick up their ass to make it work with him, which they can but they're not in that groove after a 3 month lay off, that's where the "this is what Skinner would look like on a more average team" shows its face.

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

Yeah I think when you are getting to this point of performing mental gymnastics you know the argument is true, you just don't want to admit it.

He would not be a starter on any other playoff team, the only reason he is here is because his only competition is Pickard, a literal AHL goalie.

I don't think on Anaheim he's even the back-up. He's not outplaying Dostal or Gibson, we all see how his game is prone to crater when the D here is not playing relatively tight, he breaks hard, imagine that being the game to game reality for him, he probably would wash out of the league fast.

On a legit bad team he would bomb.

2.6 million is about fair for Stu, we're getting what we pay for. Cam Talbot is better than him and he makes about 2.5.

Maybe, maybe not. Again, useless to speculate. Maybe McDavid breaks Gretzky's records if he's playing for another team. Skinner isn't preventing the team from scoring more goals.

 

[K1984]

October is basically what Skinner would look like on a lot of other teams.

The Oilers have to play with a stick up their ass to make it work with him, which they can but they're not in that groove after a 3 month lay off, that's where the "this is what Skinner would look like on a more average team" shows its face.

Now we're blaming him for not playing on a worse team.

He doesn't though, so.

Also absurd to suggest that he was basically playing at the same level as now in October and it was just the team in front that caused him to play bad. We had zero saves on the PK through the first 3/4 games on about 5 shots. He was bad, then improved. Just like everyone else.

 

[Soundwave]

Maybe, maybe not. Again, useless to speculate. Maybe McDavid breaks Gretzky's records if he's playing for another team. Skinner isn't preventing the team from scoring more goals.

Stop comparing Skinner to freaking McDavid, lol. McDavid is the best player in the world and maybe the 3rd best player to ever play, Skinner is 27th in the league for save percentage, barely better than Pickard who is an AHL goalie, lol.

This is a ridiculous comparable. After getting married and dealing with the dissapointment of winning the Conn Smythe but not having the Cup to go with it, McDavid has more than enough leash to be granted a bad October.

 

[K1984]

Stop comparing Skinner to freaking McDavid, lol. McDavid is the best player in the world and maybe the 3rd best player to ever play, Skinner is 27th in the league for save percentage, barely better than Pickard who is an AHL goalie, lol.

This is a ridiculous comparable.

Skinner wouldn't be 27th if he didn't suck in October.

Just like McDavid would be first in scoring if he didn't suck in October.

 

[Soundwave]

Skinner wouldn't be 27th if he didn't suck in October.

Just like McDavid would be first in scoring if he didn't suck in October.

Not even Stuart Skinner's mom believes he's a top 10 goalie, Skinner is properly ranked. McDavid is pacing himself, he doesn't need to prove anything to anyone by winning another scoring title, he has multiple.

Skinner in October is what Skinner would look like on a lot of teams that don't have the top end defensive structure we have.

 

[K1984]

Not even Stuart Skinner's mom believes he's a top 10 goalie, Skinner is properly ranked. McDavid is pacing himself, he doesn't need to prove anything to anyone by winning another scoring title, he has multiple.

I never said he's a top 10 goalie.

You don't agree that he would be well north of 27th in SV% if he posted somewhere between a .900-.920 in October like he's done every month since?

 

[MessierII]

Not even Stuart Skinner's mom believes he's a top 10 goalie, Skinner is properly ranked. McDavid is pacing himself, he doesn't need to prove anything to anyone by winning another scoring title, he has multiple.

Skinner in October is what Skinner would look like on a lot of teams that don't have the top end defensive structure we have.

He shouldn’t need to be a top 10 goalie. There are dozens of goalies paid more than him. Why does everyone else get a pass for starting the season like garbage?

 

[Soundwave]

I never said he's a top 10 goalie.

You don't agree that he would be well north of 27th in SV% if he posted somewhere between a .900-.920 in October like he's done every month since?

I don't because October Stu is part of who Stu is.

It's impossible for basically any team to play 100% in sync defensively in October after a long lay off, he doesn't have the ability to weather those stretches because he's simply not good enough. If the team is just a bit off defensively Skinner's game will go to shit in a hurry.

So his play in October is indicative of his overall game.

His numbers are overall inflated here by playing on one of the best defensive systems in the league. If we had like 2016 Cam Talbot here right now with this team + coaching staff + defensive buy-in, we'd be running away with the President's Trophy. .902 or whatever he is today is actually inflated, I don't think he would be .902 on many other teams.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

There's the problem. People ripping him because of what they think will happen, not what he's actually doing. This just hasn't happened yet since mid-November.

If/when that happens I'll be the first one to call him out. Still think we need a better backup. In the interim, I can't possibly understand the fixation some have on spinning his play as bad no matter what he does.

There’s maybe 5-6 goalies in the league who hold the type of consistent play people expect from Skinner. The rest of them struggle with the exact same inconsistencies as Skinner. Look at the game logs for Gibson of Vejmelka, it’s basically a bad start for every 2-3 good starts and there’s even stretches of 2/3 bad starts in a row over a 5-6-7 game stretch. Almost every single goalie is like this. And I know when faced with the reality of other goalies inconsistencies people will look to move the goal post and go to the team argument but look at the anointed one, Mackenzie Blackwood, that many were so upset the Oilers missed out on. He went from a bottom feeder to a contender and he’s in the midst of an inconsistent stretch where he’s been averaging like a .880

Of course if the Oilers did trade for another goalie say a Gibson or Vejmelka and we put him under the microscope of every second in every game as we do with Skinner and they inevitably showed inconsistencies, had bad games and gave up bad goals, the refrain would the shift to “management just didn’t trade for the right goalie”.

We all know Skinner is an average goalie but swapping him out for another average goalie isn’t going to drastically change the teams fortunes. The best option is trading for a proven top flight goalie, and they aren’t always available, or trading for another average goalie to tandem with Skinner and hoping that between the two of them you can get consistent goaltending.

 

[K1984]

I don't because October Stu is part of who Stu is.

It's impossible for basically any team to play 100% in sync defensively in October after a long lay off, he doesn't have the ability to weather those stretches because he's simply not good enough.

So his play in October is indicative of his overall game.

His numbers are overall inflated here by playing on one of the best defensive systems in the league. If we had like 2016 Cam Talbot here right now with this team + coaching staff + defensive buy-in, we'd be running away with the President's Trophy.

Right, so everyone else gets a break and excused for starting the season a month late, but Skinner is the only guy that should have been on point from day 1.

Play in October is indicative of his game, but not the 3 months since. No, the one month is a better sample than the 3. For sure.