Speculation: A Pretty Long List of 'Own Rentals' (those that have walked to UFA). Trending...

[4thline]

If you could provide me a feasible trade proposal that makes us a better team next year that involves mitch going the other way I am all ears.

The trade itself doesn't have to make us better today if it's part of a sequence that does.
Ex. Marner to the Rangers for Buchnevich + futures, use the cap difference to sign Saad/Schwartz.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Some are of the belief that moving Marner is simply addition by subtraction.

I call BS. I'll bet you can't even find one person who thinks that, never mind "some".

I thought Dubas was supposed to be some kind of forward thinking, new-age GM that would do things differently to the rest of the pack, like moving impending UFAs for picks/prospects when applicable.

He seems to act like all the other GMs who are dinosaurs, yet doesn't quite get as good results.

I've had similar thoughts myself. Maybe his innovations are so deep we can't see them?

The trade itself doesn't have to make us better today if it's part of a sequence that does.
Ex. Marner to the Rangers for Buchnevich + futures, use the cap difference to sign Saad/Schwartz.

Good point! This is exactly what I think every time someone craps on the idea of getting back futures in any trade saying "but we want to win now".

 

[Twine Tickler]

I don't care about winning or losing trades, I care about winning the cup.

I totally agree, but usually winning trades gives you a better chance at winning cups. I am OK with any deal that is heavily futures focused for Mitch. But trading for 3x 3's or 2x 6's is the exact type of thing that lead Boston to have nothing to show for them trading Jumbo. You can referance their 2011 cup all you want, but it was no where near a result of that trade. It's kind of like losing your job because you were caught stealing, only to find a better paying job 6 years down the line and then attributing your success to stealing. It's something that should not be replicated, because 99 times out of 100 it will not yield the same results.

Some are of the belief that moving Marner is simply addition by subtraction.

I hope you are not part of that sum of people lol

The trade itself doesn't have to make us better today if it's part of a sequence that does.
Ex. Marner to the Rangers for Buchnevich + futures, use the cap difference to sign Saad/Schwartz.

Agreed. It doesn't need to help us today, and yes I agree that cap savings is a commodity itself. Maybe that proposal that you have suggested along with those potential signing could have been a deal that works in the now and in the later. I hear you. But I just don't know if Saad and Shwartz for 5 years is something that helps us in the end. It just seems like wasted money. But I hear your point, maybe this free agent class was a poor example. But if there was an opportunity to exploit this in years to come, It could be a way to remain competitive by addition in UFA as well as acquire the futures in potential Marner deal. It is a risk though, because a Marner deal would likely have to come before the signings, as we would not be in as great of position post signings to negotiate a trade. As teams would know we need to shed cap

 

[Racer88]

This is literally every team that does not win the cup.. trade for a FA/keep FA's then risk having them walk.

Nope. I reserve this distinction for teams that think they are contenders then massively choke away a 3-1 lead in games

 

[Torontonian]

Good GM's can have foresight and make tough decisions, its easy to keep JVR, Bozak, Gardiner, Andersen and let them walk for nothing, what is tough is saying I don't think this team has what to takes to make a run at the cup and trade these guys today, so tomorrows team is better. It's called asset management. I forget which GM said it is the worst thing a GM can do is fall in love with his players and over estimate their abilities... Dubas his guys a little too much...

It's a simple question, keeping all those "own rentals" helped next years team how?

The difference is YOU might think the team is not good enough to compete for the cup today but Dubas believes his team is good enough to complete for the cup. So yes, its easy for you and me to say "the team isn't good enough now, sell off the UFA's to make tomorrow's team better." But he clearly thinks its not worth wild selling off the UFA's because he thinks they can win.

 

[Menzinger]

It's an issue of perhaps how the league SHOULD be run rather than how it IS run by GMs.

The vast majority of GMs tend to be fairly conservative with their approach to asset Management, hence why most teams that are even in the hunt for a playoff spot (let alone be a lock or even a contender) don't sell off assets, other than a few outlier examples.

So in retrospect it's certainly a frustrating look back at opportunities lost, but there's a reason why this team stopped selling UFAs the moment Matthews was drafted in the summer of 2016

 

[CupcakeSprinkles]

Nope. I reserve this distinction for teams that think they are contenders then massively choke away a 3-1 lead in games

Sure and no one has a crystal ball to say assets will pan out at the deadline is the point.

-Harvard Business Graduate

 

[Menzinger]

Your saying that Lilly/Sandin can't beat out Holl, Dermott or Marincin? Robertson can't beat out Engvall, Mikheyev, Spezza, Simmonds, Jumbo? And that is the talent that is boxing them out?

Complimentary bottom of the lineup fringe NHLers does not make our prospects deep, it makes them pretty common and pretty easy to replace in the UFA market.

Bunting, freaking Bunting got a NHL job with the Leafs before Robertson, that should tell you what the brass think of Robertson.

This isn't a great way to evaluate prospects though. The decision about whether or not a prospect makes the lineup should always be first and foremost about their development. For example, Robertson getting 1st line minutes in the A for at least half a season is probably better than him in the 4th line in the NHL. That doesn't make him any lesser beacuse of that

 

[FiveHoleo]

I totally agree, but usually winning trades gives you a better chance at winning cups. I am OK with any deal that is heavily futures focused for Mitch. But trading for 3x 3's or 2x 6's is the exact type of thing that lead Boston to have nothing to show for them trading Jumbo. You can referance their 2011 cup all you want, but it was no where near a result of that trade. It's kind of like losing your job because you were caught stealing, only to find a better paying job 6 years down the line and then attributing your success to stealing. It's something that should not be replicated, because 99 times out of 100 it will not yield the same results.

They used the cap space to sign Chara in free agency. The Boston cup was not possible without the Thornton deal to clear the space. Having said that, I think trading Marner is dumb and has nothing whatsoever to do with our horrible history of combining own rentals with real rentals for a 1st round exit.

 

[ShaneFalco]

The trade itself doesn't have to make us better today if it's part of a sequence that does.
Ex. Marner to the Rangers for Buchnevich + futures, use the cap difference to sign Saad/Schwartz.

Exactly

 

[ShaneFalco]

Sure and no one has a crystal ball to say assets will pan out at the deadline is the point.

-Harvard Business Graduate

Managers are hired and paid to get results. Or should we give all gms a free pass because they can't predict the future?

 

[ShaneFalco]

The difference is YOU might think the team is not good enough to compete for the cup today but Dubas believes his team is good enough to complete for the cup. So yes, its easy for you and me to say "the team isn't good enough now, sell off the UFA's to make tomorrow's team better." But he clearly thinks its not worth wild selling off the UFA's because he thinks they can win.

Based on his awesome track record?
He's too damn arrogant and stubborn to even listen

 

[egd27]

Some are of the belief that moving Marner is simply addition by subtraction.

I call BS. I'll bet you can't even find one person who thinks that, never mind "some".

Here you go Gary What do I win?

The mistake here was not trading him when his last contract expired. However in the case of Marner it's addition by subtraction because his cap space is far more valuable than he is as a player. You take what you can get, use the cap space to add better all around players who compete in the playoffs and move on. Lesson learned.

 

[Racer88]

Sure and no one has a crystal ball to say assets will pan out at the deadline is the point.

-Harvard Business Graduate

Who s the Harvard Business Graduate

 

[Gary Nylund]

I totally agree, but usually winning trades gives you a better chance at winning cups. I am OK with any deal that is heavily futures focused for Mitch. But trading for 3x 3's or 2x 6's is the exact type of thing that lead Boston to have nothing to show for them trading Jumbo. You can referance their 2011 cup all you want, but it was no where near a result of that trade. It's kind of like losing your job because you were caught stealing, only to find a better paying job 6 years down the line and then attributing your success to stealing. It's something that should not be replicated, because 99 times out of 100 it will not yield the same results.

Just because Boston made a bad trade doesn't mean we have to make a bad trade. But it's also been pointed out the Boston cleared cap space which allowed them to sign Chara so in the end it didn't turn out so bad, kind of like how we traded for Barrie who didn't work out so well but then when he left we had the cap space for Brodie. Anyhow, I see no reason we'd have to lose that trade.

Here you go Gary What do I win?

Technical point - I didn't say you couldn't find anyone, I said he couldn't. And he didn't so looks like I was right.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Based on his awesome track record?
He's too damn arrogant and stubborn to even listen

listen to whom?

 

[ottomaddox]

It's an issue of perhaps how the league SHOULD be run rather than how it IS run by GMs.

The vast majority of GMs tend to be fairly conservative with their approach to asset Management, hence why most teams that are even in the hunt for a playoff spot (let alone be a lock or even a contender) don't sell off assets, other than a few outlier examples.

So in retrospect it's certainly a frustrating look back at opportunities lost, but there's a reason why this team stopped selling UFAs the moment Matthews was drafted in the summer of 2016

Many good points here.

If Dubas is as conservative as the other GMs and a man of his word (we can and we will) what will he do with Rielly?

 

[Racer88]

Many good points here.

If Dubas is as conservative as the other GMs and a man of his word (we can and we will) what will he do with Rielly?

Simple…….he can’t and he won’t. Lol

 

[ACC1224]

Here you go Gary What do I win?

 

[darrylsittler27]

We might have more assets. We might have some assets we might have something entirely different. We are talking about something that didn't happen. However, to really understand which choice is better. We need hindsight ( we have that for our oun rentals) and we need to experience an existence where we traded those players for picks or prospects or a combination of them.

 

[justashadowof]

...towards letting Rielly walk too. This was speculated by both Justin Bourne and JD Bunkis (SN Leafs Hour Aug 5th). That Dubas might be losing his job, so he's going to hang on to Rielly until his contract runs out. In doing so he risks not re-signing him and losing him to another team.

Here's some of the significant players that have walked at the end of their contract:

Freddy Andersen
Zack Hyman
JVR
Tyler Bozak
Leo Komarov
Jake Gardiner
Ron Hainsey
Roman Polak
Tyson Barrie

Please feel free to add to my list if I missed someone.

I know there is still time, but I don't trust KD. He is a man of his word. He can't possibly keep the big 4 and rielly.

What do you think is going to happen?

I feel like 2020-21 Freddy Andersen has been reasonably replaced.
Hainsey was near the end of the line as was Polak.
Gardiner was a bullet dodged (I wanted him back myself, would have been a mistake).

Left with Hyman, JVR, Bozak, Komarov and Barrie.
Barrie is that classic offensive defender who is a net zero when producing and a net negative when not, the trade was the mistake then riding him out instead of cutting bait mid-season with another sucker.
Komarov is the type of player the Leafs miss in the playoffs. If only he had been replaced in some reasonable way.
Bozak was nice center depth the team couldn't afford any longer.
The Leafs lost in tight scoring when JVR left and now even more of it with Hyman gone. Who on this team other than Tavares can score in tight on the goal? Hopefully Ritchie. If not, I think defending the Leafs' PP has gotten even easier.

Add to list Ceci.

 

[darrylsittler27]

It's the job of the GM to properly evaluate his team. Dubas' over rates his teams. This team won't win a cup so why do rentals and give up picks when you are cap strapped? That backend isn't good enough and if Reilly walks the wheels fall off. He will fetch 8 mill easy as Ufa.

 

[justashadowof]

To the discussion above, I did think Dubas was supposed one of these new types of GMs who never go all in and always consider carrying forward some asset values to keep the team healthy and vibrant and youthful. I also thought he wasn't going to dip below 7 picks per draft just do some savvy manipulations with the draft picks. I wasn't completely sold on this philosophy but I did think that was how he was sold. Instead he has spent his draft picks like a sailor on furlough.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Instead he has spent his draft picks like a sailor on furlough.

Dubas has had 30 draft picks over his 4 years, which is more than teams originally get.

 

[Nylanderthal]

Mgmt is under the gun to get results. Playoff results.

If Dubas wanted to trade Rielly, he would've done so the past month or two. He didn't. Dubas is going to sink or swim this year with Rielly and then sign him to a bloated contract.

Management is u set no such pressure. Unless you’re aware of something the rest of us are not.
I’d say it’s pretty obvious the core is under the gun to get results this season.