Speculation: A Pretty Long List of 'Own Rentals' (those that have walked to UFA). Trending...

[RoadWarrior]

Here you go Gary What do I win?

I suspect the leafs management is of the same belief now. The problem is that they're stuck because of the way they sold the Marner contract to ownership. Trading Marner would be an admission of failure and mismanagement. The only way you trade Marner is firing the management team and doing a re-build which quite frankly they should seriously consider because this team as it is currently constructed is not a contender and is touch and go to make the playoffs.

 

[egd27]

I suspect the leafs management is of the same belief now. The problem is that they're stuck because of the way they sold the Marner contract to ownership. Trading Marner would be an admission of failure and mismanagement. The only way you trade Marner is firing the management team and doing a re-build which quite frankly they should seriously consider because this team as it is currently constructed is not a contender and is touch and go to make the playoffs.

IMO your stance on Marner is too extreme. I can see a path that includes moving him, but it's certainly not addition by subtraction.

Point is moot anyway, MLSE has decided Kid Kyle gets at least one more kick at the can, so Marner is going nowhere unless they are basically out of it by the TDL. (and even that's a stretch)

 

[Gary Nylund]

It's the job of the GM to properly evaluate his team. Dubas' over rates his teams. This team won't win a cup so why do rentals and give up picks when you are cap strapped? That backend isn't good enough and if Reilly walks the wheels fall off. He will fetch 8 mill easy as Ufa.

I agree completely. Would be nice to have more assets in the cupboard right about now and spending rentals on a team that can't get past the 1st round shows that Dubas was mistaken about how good this team is.

To the discussion above, I did think Dubas was supposed one of these new types of GMs who never go all in and always consider carrying forward some asset values to keep the team healthy and vibrant and youthful. I also thought he wasn't going to dip below 7 picks per draft just do some savvy manipulations with the draft picks. I wasn't completely sold on this philosophy but I did think that was how he was sold. Instead he has spent his draft picks like a sailor on furlough.

I thought so too. I'm also very disappointed that it hasn't gone down that way as I'm a big believer in this philosophy.

I suspect the leafs management is of the same belief now. The problem is that they're stuck because of the way they sold the Marner contract to ownership. Trading Marner would be an admission of failure and mismanagement. The only way you trade Marner is firing the management team and doing a re-build which quite frankly they should seriously consider because this team as it is currently constructed is not a contender and is touch and go to make the playoffs.

This team should cruise to the playoffs pretty easily IMO. As for contender, that's a nebulous term so I'll just say that it's hard to see this team going all the way.

 

[4thline]

This team should cruise to the playoffs pretty easily IMO. As for contender, that's a nebulous term so I'll just say that it's hard to see this team going all the way.

Definitely hard to give anything more than a "Darkhorse" ranking without something like a President's Trophy calibre season

 

[RoadWarrior]

I agree completely. Would be nice to have more assets in the cupboard right about now and spending rentals on a team that can't get past the 1st round shows that Dubas was mistaken about how good this team is.



I thought so too. I'm also very disappointed that it hasn't gone down that way as I'm a big believer in this philosophy.



This team should cruise to the playoffs pretty easily IMO. As for contender, that's a nebulous term so I'll just say that it's hard to see this team going all the way.

This team is no lock to make the playoffs. I think you're underestimating the value of a two way player like Zach Hyman, especially on the PK.

Losing Bogosian will hurt on the third pairing.

This team has no depth at all and are very easy to play against.

 

[RoadWarrior]

IMO your stance on Marner is too extreme. I can see a path that includes moving him, but it's certainly not addition by subtraction.

Point is moot anyway, MLSE has decided Kid Kyle gets at least one more kick at the can, so Marner is going nowhere unless they are basically out of it by the TDL. (and even that's a stretch)

Of course it's addition by subtraction. Trading any player being paid more than their actual worth is addition by subtraction in the salary cap era. The challenge is to get some kind of asset in return without eating too much salary.

Trading Tavares would be addition by subtraction but that's impossible with his no move clause.

Teams frequently swap bad contracts of underachieving players in hopes that the change of scenery will spark some improvement. It's a faint hope but sometimes it works.

That's why they kept Justin Holl - because he's on a decent value contract.

 

[Gary Nylund]

This team is no lock to make the playoffs. I think you're underestimating the value of a two way player like Zach Hyman, especially on the PK.

Losing Bogosian will hurt on the third pairing.

This team has no depth at all and are very easy to play against.

I'm not underestimating the loss of Hyman at all, quite the opposite in fact and I agree losing Bogo will also hurt. But Sandin and Liljegren might take steps forward to mitigate the loss of Bogo and since Andersen was so bad last season, there's reason to believe that our goaltending will be better, perhaps much better. We'd have to regress a fair bit to miss the playoffs, I don't see it happening myself.

Of course it's addition by subtraction. Trading any player being paid more than their actual worth is addition by subtraction in the salary cap era. The challenge is to get some kind of asset in return without eating too much salary.

Trading Tavares would be addition by subtraction but that's impossible with his no move clause.

Teams frequently swap bad contracts of underachieving players in hopes that the change of scenery will spark some improvement. It's a faint hope but sometimes it works.

That's why they kept Justin Holl - because he's on a decent value contract.

It's not quite that simple. You can't just subtact him and say we're better - you could make the argument that we're spending our cap space better I guess but if we're spending 11M less than before, we're sure as hell not a better team. If Marner goes, then there's still the question of who replaces him and to make room for the new guys, some players will have to be moved out and there's no guarantee that the end result will be any better than what we have now.

There's also the fact that Marner is a 1st team all-star so he wasn't even bad value during the regular season and there's no guarantee that he'll suck in the playoffs forever.

 

[Racer88]

IMO your stance on Marner is too extreme. I can see a path that includes moving him, but it's certainly not addition by subtraction.

Point is moot anyway, MLSE has decided Kid Kyle gets at least one more kick at the can, so Marner is going nowhere unless they are basically out of it by the TDL. (and even that's a stretch)

I think if they are out of it by Christmas Keefe will be turfed as a last ditch effort for Dubas to save his job.
If they are out of it by trade deadline Dubas will be gone in a last ditch effort for Shanny to keep his job

 

[egd27]

Trading any player being paid more than their actual worth is addition by subtraction in the salary cap era.

It really isn't.....cap space in and of itself does not make the team better, therefore it's not necessarily an addition. It provides opportunity, but until it is used, it is nothing.

While overpaid, Marner will provide 90-100 points to the team on the ice, $11M will provide investment income for MLSE off the ice.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I'm not underestimating the loss of Hyman at all, quite the opposite in fact and I agree losing Bogo will also hurt. But Sandin and Liljegren might take steps forward to mitigate the loss of Bogo and since Andersen was so bad last season, there's reason to believe that our goaltending will be better, perhaps much better. We'd have to regress a fair bit to miss the playoffs, I don't see it happening myself.



It's not quite that simple. You can't just subtact him and say we're better - you could make the argument that we're spending our cap space better I guess but if we're spending 11M less than before, we're sure as hell not a better team. If Marner goes, then there's still the question of who replaces him and to make room for the new guys, some players will have to be moved out and there's no guarantee that the end result will be any better than what we have now.

There's also the fact that Marner is a 1st team all-star so he wasn't even bad value during the regular season and there's no guarantee that he'll suck in the playoffs forever.

There's always risk in every move but it doesn't change the fact that without meaningful changes this team is going nowhere in the playoffs. The argument that the leafs won't spend to the cap is ridiculous. Marner's $10.5M would be spent on other players.

Management's current stance tells me that winning a championship is just not a priority. If winning a Stanley Cup isn't your top priority and an NHL executive then you should consider a career change.

 

[RoadWarrior]

I think if they are out of it by Christmas Keefe will be turfed as a last ditch effort for Dubas to save his job.
If they are out of it by trade deadline Dubas will be gone in a last ditch effort for Shanny to keep his job

Dubas is a smart man but his lack of experience, hiring of sycophants and pandering to player agents basically killed him.

He should find a career as a chief scout.

 

[Gary Nylund]

There's always risk in every move but it doesn't change the fact that without meaningful changes this team is going nowhere in the playoffs. The argument that the leafs won't spend to the cap is ridiculous. Marner's $10.5M would be spent on other players.

Management's current stance tells me that winning a championship is just not a priority. If winning a Stanley Cup isn't your top priority and an NHL executive then you should consider a career change.

We can't predict the future, so we don't know for sure what this team will or won't do.

I never said we won't spend to the cap, you've completely misunderstood my post so perhaps you should try reading what I said a bit more carefully.

If I was in charge, I would have put Marner on the market the minute the season ended, but giving him away for nothing would be completely absurd. If you think we wouldn't get a ton back for him in a trade, you're just wrong. Sorry but this notion of addition by subtraction is nonsense.

 

[ACC1224]

There's always risk in every move but it doesn't change the fact that without meaningful changes this team is going nowhere in the playoffs. The argument that the leafs won't spend to the cap is ridiculous. Marner's $10.5M would be spent on other players.

Management's current stance tells me that winning a championship is just not a priority. If winning a Stanley Cup isn't your top priority and an NHL executive then you should consider a career change.

You don't think they want to win?
I think you're confusing indifference with incompetence.

 

[deprw]

Barrie should have been moved without question, he did not have more value to the team than in trade. He didn't play that well for the Leafs and the team was very inconsistent all year and looked like crap at many times. I thought it was obvious that a deep playoff run was very unlikely, and a message should have been delivered by being sellers.
Also would have carried assets over and salvaged the Kadri trade.

At the time I thought it would be good to move JVR as well since it was obvious he wasn't going to be kept and the team was still so young and developing. Would have been able to fetch a great package(Probably a decent prospect and a decent pick) that could have included young assets that might have still been on cheap contracts last year, when the team looked ready to be a real threat

Am I wrong when I remember that we had discussions about trading Barrie, but couldn't find suitable package and he had also injury problems at TDL. He or Gardiner would have been suitable candidates for trades, but Gardiners back ruined that plan completely. Problem with Bozak and JVR was that we had pretty stacked offense back then and had cheap ELC stars, so it was kind of good chance to go for it. We tried to acquire Brodie instead of Barrie and I don't think there were any better trades available before the season.

I think if there would have been chance to trade our UFA forwards for suitable dman Lou or Dubas would have done that. Top4 d is sought after commodity on the market. No one really wants to sell those cost controlled and progressing top4 dman.

In overall this is hindsight at worst, when we were top8 in the regular season you can't trade away your players. What kind of message you send to your players or UFAs? We are kind of contending, but if we aren't happy at TDL we ship you out. Have faith buddies and good luck!

 

[Gary Nylund]

In overall this is hindsight at worst, when we were top8 in the regular season you can't trade away your players. What kind of message you send to your players or UFAs? We are kind of contending, but if we aren't happy at TDL we ship you out. Have faith buddies and good luck!

I know this is a popular view that has been expressed here many times but I'm not sure I buy it as I think players are pretty savvy these days and are able to think past the current season. I also think that players don't need to be "sent messages", they're professionals and should be doing their job to the best of their abilities no matter what "messages" are or aren't sent. Players play, coaches coach and managers manage, at least that's the way it should be. JMHO.

 

[deprw]

Just because Boston made a bad trade doesn't mean we have to make a bad trade. But it's also been pointed out the Boston cleared cap space which allowed them to sign Chara so in the end it didn't turn out so bad, kind of like how we traded for Barrie who didn't work out so well but then when he left we had the cap space for Brodie. Anyhow, I see no reason we'd have to lose that trade.

Technical point - I didn't say you couldn't find anyone, I said he couldn't. And he didn't so looks like I was right.

How many Charas there have been on free agency since that? Early cap years were bit different and there were some opportunities like Chara then. You have to be pretty sure to cash out that lottery ticket to trade away player just to make room for that kind of opportunity that might happen and you might be the lucky suitor. If all stars align. I'd say this years UFA crop was bad enough for us not to trade Marner, since we couldn't have utilized that cap space effectively enough.

 

[Gary Nylund]

How many Charas there have been on free agency since that? Early cap years were bit different and there were some opportunities like Chara then. You have to be pretty sure to cash out that lottery ticket to trade away player just to make room for that kind of opportunity that might happen and you might be the lucky suitor. If all stars align. I'd say this years UFA crop was bad enough for us not to trade Marner, since we couldn't have utilized that cap space effectively enough.

I agree with all that and I'm not saying trade Marner just to free up cap space, I was just pointing out that losing a trade isn't necessarily the end of the world. I would much prefer to have a trade work out like the Lindros trade - give up something very valuable and get something very valuable in return (and I said in the post you quoted that I see no reason we would to lose the trade).

 

[deprw]

I know this is a popular view that has been expressed here many times but I'm not sure I buy it as I think players are pretty savvy these days and are able to think past the current season. I also think that players don't need to be "sent messages", they're professionals and should be doing their job to the best of their abilities no matter what "messages" are or aren't sent. Players play, coaches coach and managers manage, at least that's the way it should be. JMHO.

That's they way it goes, though if team is in top10 of standings it's pretty bold to do those moves. I think we wanted to get into playoffs to play Capitals to gain experience, maybe then you could have traded assets away. Those Boston years we were top teams in whole league, what kind of message you send to your players and other teams when you start to subtract in that point? That would have been idiotic. Worst hindsight ever. It's easy to judge now, but if you analyze those season, there was no reason to do so. To give up.

We can debate about 2019-2020 season, when we canned Babcock and had troubles during the season. That might have been season to trade away players and do some retooling, but it's kind of hard to analyze. Covid, four months break and bubble playoffs.

Our window has been open since 2016 and it still is. At the moment best course of action is to stick our core four and if this flat cap era stays for year or two we might try to get better players from free agency if other teams are also in cap problems. Trade away Marner then. This years crop was subpar and I think this years draft was also crapshoot, because of covid. Lots of players lost season worth of games during two years, that is pretty bad for 16-17 year olds.

 

[Racer88]

Dubas is a smart man but his lack of experience, hiring of sycophants and pandering to player agents basically killed him.

He should find a career as a chief scout.

He might be book smart but as you said he lacks experience and the real world knowledge that comes with it

 

[Gary Nylund]

That's they way it goes, though if team is in top10 of standings it's pretty bold to do those moves. I think we wanted to get into playoffs to play Capitals to gain experience, maybe then you could have traded assets away. Those Boston years we were top teams in whole league, what kind of message you send to your players and other teams when you start to subtract in that point? That would have been idiotic. Worst hindsight ever. It's easy to judge now, but if you analyze those season, there was no reason to do so. To give up.

We can debate about 2019-2020 season, when we canned Babcock and had troubles during the season. That might have been season to trade away players and do some retooling, but it's kind of hard to analyze. Covid, four months break and bubble playoffs.

Our window has been open since 2016 and it still is. At the moment best course of action is to stick our core four and if this flat cap era stays for year or two we might try to get better players from free agency if other teams are also in cap problems. Trade away Marner then. This years crop was subpar and I think this years draft was also crapshoot, because of covid. Lots of players lost season worth of games during two years, that is pretty bad for 16-17 year olds.

I don't buy into this theory, sorry but I just don't so we'll have to agree to disagree here. I was loudly calling for JVR to be traded regardless of any "message" and consider this - we've been doing nothing but sending these "messages" for years, we keep all our expiring contracts as "own rentals", we bolster our lineup by trading futures at every TDL and what do we have to show for it? Since the answer to that question is absolutely nothing, that's one piece of evidence to back the idea that maybe spending futures to send these messages isn't the no brainer that some people think it is.

 

[All Mod Cons]

I think if they are out of it by Christmas Keefe will be turfed as a last ditch effort for Dubas to save his job.
If they are out of it by trade deadline Dubas will be gone in a last ditch effort for Shanny to keep his job

Can't see Kyle firing his boy. He gave him the job without any other interview. They are tied together at the hip. Sheldon goes down, and Kyle does too.

Kyle's too stubborn and fixated in his ways to consider another coach.

 

[RoadWarrior]

You don't think they want to win?
I think you're confusing indifference with incompetence.

I think they're more concerned with making the playoffs and keeping their jobs than winning a championship.

 

[RoadWarrior]

We can't predict the future, so we don't know for sure what this team will or won't do.

I never said we won't spend to the cap, you've completely misunderstood my post so perhaps you should try reading what I said a bit more carefully.

If I was in charge, I would have put Marner on the market the minute the season ended, but giving him away for nothing would be completely absurd. If you think we wouldn't get a ton back for him in a trade, you're just wrong. Sorry but this notion of addition by subtraction is nonsense.

As I stated earlier you can get players in return who are on the outs with their current team or demanding a trade etc. A Marner for Eichel scenario is plausible. Both players need a fresh start.

 

[ACC1224]

I think they're more concerned with making the playoffs and keeping their jobs than winning a championship.

Why not try and do all 3?

 

[Gary Nylund]

As I stated earlier you can get players in return who are on the outs with their current team or demanding a trade etc. A Marner for Eichel scenario is plausible. Both players need a fresh start.

I believe what you stated was that getting rid of Marner would be addition by subtraction which implies that he has negative trade value. Now you want Eichel for him, sounds like you think Eichel has negative trade value as well.

For the record, I completely disagree. Marner and Eichel are both very valuable commodities, both would fetch a huge return in a trade and the concept of addition by subtraction applies to neither of these players.