A look back at Sidney Crosby's defense over the past decade

[BillyOcean]

If you actually read what I wrote, I said "Crosby began falling further and further from the ROSS winner". Yes he won a rocket, but he didn't challenge for it in any of the 6 prior or 3 next seasons so that's clearly an outlier. The pens won 2 cups, not Crosby. Also the 16 smythe was a joke and perfect proof of media hype. Let me know when a player won the smythe despite being a minus and below PPG?

Not bitter about anything.

Yes he did, but was still 30pts behind the ross winner and double digits behind the other contenders, which is exactly what I said. He's not relevant in that race anymore so y'all hyping up his "defense".

It's just media hype to keep his name in the spotlight because he's no longer relevant in ross or rocket races.

Whoops!

 

[Ugene Magic]

I have no issue saying guys like Datsyuk and others are more defensively better, but considering games played and what Sid has done both regular season and playoffs doesn't mean Sid wasn't solid defensively.

There was a time (a brief 3/4 years) Datsyuk was close to being on the scale of Crosby, but he wasn't as consistent as Crosby keeping those aspects moving forward. Crosby's later years are like Datsyuk's prime years.

Datsyuk was a complete player in the truest form of the word. Crosby was just on another planet the other way and defensive enough. Also noting Datsyuk's late start. Almost a full decade age wise. When Crosby came into the league Datsyuk was already 27.

Bergeron? Same as Datsyuk. Just on a smaller scale.

Kopitar? Really?

These guys had to be defensively good for their teams success.

Crosby is in the discussion, but was never lambasted as the best in the first place.

Crosby is/was twice the player any of these guys were when they came into the league.

So Datsyuk, Bergeron and Kopitar are better at a aspect expected of them, and I think Crosby was, too.

That's a lot of finals appearances/cups that span that group of players. Something like 12 finals and 8 cups

Crosby - 4 finals and 3 cups
Datsyuk - 3 finals and 2 cups
Bergeron - 3 finals and 1 cup
Kopitar - 2 finals and 2 cups

You don't do that if you are defensively inept.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

It's just media hype to keep his name in the spotlight because he's no longer relevant in ross or rocket races.

Whoops!

OK so has he been relevant in the rocket race the last 2 seasons (3 including the current one)?

Whoops!

 

[Empoleon8771]

People are aware that actual defensive analytics have Crosby on par defensively with guys like Toews, Kopitar, Zetterberg and Kesler from 2010-2019, right? No duh Crosby isn't on par with Bergeron and Datsyuk defensively, no one is. The analytics have Crosby as being right on par with other players who are constantly getting Selke votes. If you want to spin that into "Crosby sucks defensively" somehow, then you just have a blatantly clear agenda. Which is exactly what OP has, a blatantly clear agenda.

I think the best chart to look at from that data is the relTM xGA/60:

Ovechkin: +0.18
Kopitar: -0.02
Toews: +0.08
Bergeron: -0.16
Datsyuk: -0.23
Crosby: +0.06

I think this gives a reasonable description of Crosby's defensive ability. Datsyuk and Bergeron were amazing defensively and way better than Crosby, but I think everyone knew that, and there isn't a massive difference between Crosby and guys like Toews, Kopitar, Zetterberg and Kesler (last 2 were names I looked up, Kesler was at +0.06 and Zetterberg was at +0.03). With that, I feel like Crosby's reputation of being good defensively, just not on par with Bergeron and Datsyuk, is totally fair. Based on the fact that Toews, Kesler and Kopitar combined for 4 Selkes, Crosby probably should have had more Selke votes in the last decade.

 

[caps4cup]

I don’t think Crosby is as good defensively as the Penguins fans who claim he’s an elite defensive forward, nor is he as bad as the OP suggests. He’s definitively better than Ovechkin defensively. His reputation/legacy doesn’t rely on him being an elite defensive forward, nor should it.

His xGA/60 relative at 5v5 hasn’t been anything special the last 8 years. He’s had 4 positive seasons and 4 negative seasons in that time frame, having likely been slightly positive overall (without doing the math). He’s been really good this season, having his 2nd best season of his career in that regard. It seems like he’s perfectly fine defensively, not elite but certainly not terrible, which there is nothing wrong with. He’ll have his moments where it looks like he’s lazy or bad defensively like pretty much any other player and he’ll have his moments where he looks like a Selke winner (especially with the tools he has). Probably not worth arguing that he is in the Selke category or the Ovechkin category of defense though.

 

[GreatGonzo]

People are aware that actual defensive analytics have Crosby on par defensively with guys like Toews, Kopitar, Zetterberg and Kesler from 2010-2019, right? No duh Crosby isn't on par with Bergeron and Datsyuk defensively, no one is. The analytics have Crosby as being right on par with other players who are constantly getting Selke votes. If you want to spin that into "Crosby sucks defensively" somehow, then you just have a blatantly clear agenda. Which is exactly what OP has, a blatantly clear agenda.

Maybe over the last couple of seasons but definitely not over the last decade. Especially Zetterberg and Kopitar who were obviously better defensively. If that’s not the case, provide the data that shows this because Crosby didn’t start getting any recognition defensively until around 2016, where his playoff run hype established himself as a “two way” player, which was very overrated in itself.

I hate it when selke votes are used to prove how good he is defensively. The most significant votes Crosby has gotten was this past year. Finishing 9th and 10th with very minimal votes isn’t exactly solid. Even in 2018, he finished with ONE top 3 vote.....but people simply look at a 9th place finish and try to make it significant.

I’m not saying he sucks defensively, only that it gets very overrated at times and many like to use the “small” or “overlooked” things that he does to qualify him as being a stand out defensive player. But he is hardly a shut down center, doesn’t play the PK really at all, and his offense and possession abilities are really where any “defense” is, and it all stems from how he is with the puck.

 

[TopG]

Poor OP. All those Crosby Player of the Decade awards has really gotten to him

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Let's take a deeper look at some of the aspects of even-strength performance over the past decade. I've compiled data for most of the decade's top 15 scorers. To make things simpler, I've excluded the data for the three scorers in the top fifteen who have switched teams (specifically - John Tavares #7, Phil Kessel #9 and Blake Wheeler #12). I also included Patrice Bergeon, Jonathan Toews, and Connor McDavid out of interest.

TABLE 1 - ES GOALS FOR PER 60 MINUTES

Player	GP	ES TOI	On-Ice EV GF	ES GF/60 min
Connor McDavid	287	4,999	321	3.85
Sidney Crosby	653	10,720	679	3.80
Steven Stamkos	667	10,350	597	3.46
Evgeni Malkin	610	9,394	535	3.42
Jonathan Toews	727	11,281	634	3.37
Patrick Kane	741	12,511	703	3.37
Alex Ovechkin	760	12,223	672	3.30
Jamie Benn	745	11,001	603	3.29
Patrice Bergeron	725	10,247	558	3.27
Ryan Getzlaf	687	11,232	598	3.19
Joe Thornton	730	10,889	562	3.10
Nicklas Backstrom	731	11,221	576	3.08
Claude Giroux	776	11,873	607	3.07
Anze Kopitar	767	12,349	618	3.00
Joe Pavelski	755	11,438	568	2.98

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

McDavid and Crosby are far ahead of the pack. I'm not sure that people fully appreciate how good of a scorer McDavid is at even strength. Dating back to World War II, only three players have ever led the NHL in ES scoring by a 25% margin - Gordie Howe, Wayne Gretzky, and Connor McDavid.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 2 - ES GOALS AGAINST PER 60 MINUTES

Player	GP	TOI	On-Ice EV GA	ES GA/ 60 min
Patrice Bergeron	725	10,247	379	2.22
Joe Pavelski	755	11,438	445	2.33
Anze Kopitar	767	12,349	493	2.40
Nicklas Backstrom	731	11,221	455	2.43
Joe Thornton	730	10,889	449	2.47
Jonathan Toews	727	11,281	470	2.50
Ryan Getzlaf	687	11,232	490	2.62
Alex Ovechkin	760	12,223	548	2.69
Sidney Crosby	653	10,720	481	2.69
Claude Giroux	776	11,873	550	2.78
Jamie Benn	745	11,001	525	2.86
Patrick Kane	741	12,511	599	2.87
Evgeni Malkin	610	9,394	454	2.90
Steven Stamkos	667	10,350	511	2.96
Connor McDavid	287	4,999	270	3.24

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

For those wondering how closely this corresponds to the numbers in the original post - the OP has Crosby at 2.69, Bergeron at 2.22, Ovechkin at 2.69, Toews at 2.50, and Kopitar at 2.40. Those are all identical to what I've posted - so the numbers in the original post, at least relating to ES GA data, are correct.

As I mentioned in a previous post, we're ignoring some important context here. Specifically, we don't know how good a player's teammates are in terms of goal prevention. That being said, I think there's still some interesting information in here. For example, look at some of the teammate pairings. This shows that Backstrom, Toews and Crosby are on the ice for fewer ES goals against per minute than their teammates Ovechkin, Kane, and Malkin, respectively.

TABLE 3 - ES GOALS AGAINST PER 60 MINUTES vs TEAM AVERAGE

Player	Games	ES GA/ 60 min	Team ES GA/ 60 min	RATIO
Joe Pavelski	755	2.33	2.34	1.00
Patrice Bergeron	725	2.22	2.18	1.02
Jonathan Toews	727	2.50	2.42	1.03
Joe Thornton	730	2.47	2.34	1.06
Nicklas Backstrom	731	2.43	2.29	1.06
Anze Kopitar	767	2.40	2.17	1.11
Sidney Crosby	653	2.69	2.42	1.11
Claude Giroux	776	2.78	2.49	1.11
Ryan Getzlaf	687	2.62	2.34	1.12
Jamie Benn	745	2.86	2.48	1.15
Alex Ovechkin	760	2.69	2.29	1.18
Steven Stamkos	667	2.96	2.51	1.18
Patrick Kane	741	2.87	2.42	1.19
Evgeni Malkin	610	2.90	2.42	1.20
Connor McDavid	287	3.24	2.68	1.21

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is the same data as in the previous table, but with the team's ES GA data included as well. It helps provide context. For example, we see that Crosby and Ovechkin are on the ice for the same number of ES goals against per 60 minutes - but Crosby played in front of defense and goaltending that allowed more ES goals against per minute. Superficially, it might look like their defensive performances were equal, but that's only if the context of their team is ignored.

Once again we see certain players - specifically Toews, Backstrom and Crosby - fare better than other, less defensively-minded teammates - specifically Kane, Ovechkin, and Malkin.

For all the flak Toews takes for his "intangibles", the numbers clearly demonstrate that Toews is an excellent defensive forward at even-strength. His numbers weren't overly impressive in Table 2, but as we see here, once we take into account the fact that the Black Hawks are much weaker at goal prevention than the Bruins (primarily on account of goaltending), there's not much that separates Toews and Bergeron defensively.

McDavid still doesn't look great here, even once we take into account how poor the Oilers have been. But he's not far off from one-way forwards like Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kane and Malkin - as opposed to being far behind every else, which is what the data in Table 2 incorrectly suggested.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 4 - ES RATIO "ON"

Player	GP	On-Ice EV GF	On-Ice EV GA	ON ICE
Patrice Bergeron	725	558	379	1.47
Sidney Crosby	653	679	481	1.41
Jonathan Toews	727	634	470	1.35
Joe Pavelski	755	568	445	1.28
Nicklas Backstrom	731	576	455	1.27
Anze Kopitar	767	618	493	1.25
Joe Thornton	730	562	449	1.25
Alex Ovechkin	760	672	548	1.23
Ryan Getzlaf	687	598	490	1.22
Connor McDavid	287	321	270	1.19
Evgeni Malkin	610	535	454	1.18
Patrick Kane	741	703	599	1.17
Steven Stamkos	667	597	511	1.17
Jamie Benn	745	603	525	1.15
Claude Giroux	776	607	550	1.10

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This table looks at how many ES goals for versus ES goals against a player is on the ice for. The problem with this number is it doesn't take into account how good the player's team is. Look at Connor McDavid as an example - according to this metric, he's not quite as good as Ryan Getzlaf at ES (which is clearly wrong, and is a result of McDavid playing on awful teams - see Table 5 for further analysis).

With that caveat in mind - Bergeron is on top of the list. Essentially this number means that for every 3 ES goals he's on the ice for, he's on the ice for 2 ES goals against. As we'll see in the next chart, he played on a very strong team, and that boosted his numbers. But even taking that into account, his ES performance over the past decade is still tremendous.

There's not a big gap between Backstrom and Ovechkin here, but look at how much farther Crosby and Toews are, compared to Malkin and Kane. This shows that, even when playing in front of the same goaltending and the same defense core, two teammates can drive very different results at even strength. It also gives statistical evidence that Crosby and Toews are great two-way players (at least compared to Malkin and Kane, who are indifferent defensive players) - this shouldn't surprise anybody.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 5 - ES RATIO "OFF"

Player	GP	Team ES GF	Team ES GA	OFF ICE
Alex Ovechkin	760	1792	1502	1.17
Nicklas Backstrom	731	1792	1502	1.16
Evgeni Malkin	610	1800	1575	1.13
Patrice Bergeron	725	1736	1447	1.10
Patrick Kane	741	1814	1607	1.10
Steven Stamkos	667	1776	1632	1.05
Jonathan Toews	727	1814	1607	1.04
Sidney Crosby	653	1800	1575	1.02
Joe Thornton	730	1680	1555	1.01
Joe Pavelski	755	1680	1555	1.00
Claude Giroux	776	1644	1613	0.98
Ryan Getzlaf	687	1610	1528	0.97
Anze Kopitar	767	1517	1419	0.97
Jamie Benn	745	1647	1626	0.95
Connor McDavid	287	692	747	0.78

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This table shows the ES ratio when the player is off the ice. Ovechkin and Backstrom have basically the same result (which makes sense, since they almost always play together at ES). It shouldn't surprise anyone that the two Washington players have the best R-OFF ratio, since the Capitals have been the best regular season team over the past decade.

On the other end of the spectrum, we have McDavid, who's Oilers have been horrendous. They've been clearly the worst team over the past decade (only the Sabres have been anywhere close).

(For those wondering the source of the data - all the ES GF and GA numbers, and team ES TOI, are coming from naturalstattrick.com. The numbers above equal the full decade's worth of data for each team - except the Oilers, where I'm only looking at 2016 through 2019, ie McDavid's tenure).

 

[Hockey Outsider]

TABLE 6 - PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER - ES RATIO "ON/OFF"

Player	GP	ON ICE	OFF ICE	RATIO
Connor McDavid	287	1.19	0.78	1.53
Sidney Crosby	653	1.41	1.02	1.38
Patrice Bergeron	725	1.47	1.10	1.33
Jonathan Toews	727	1.35	1.04	1.30
Anze Kopitar	767	1.25	0.97	1.29
Joe Pavelski	755	1.28	1.00	1.27
Ryan Getzlaf	687	1.22	0.97	1.25
Joe Thornton	730	1.25	1.01	1.24
Jamie Benn	745	1.15	0.95	1.21
Claude Giroux	776	1.10	0.98	1.13
Steven Stamkos	667	1.17	1.05	1.11
Nicklas Backstrom	731	1.27	1.16	1.09
Patrick Kane	741	1.17	1.10	1.06
Alex Ovechkin	760	1.23	1.17	1.04
Evgeni Malkin	610	1.18	1.13	1.04

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Let's put it all together. This metric looks at each player's R-ON ratio, and compares it to their R-OFF ratio. In other words, it looks at how their team performed when they're on the ice, compared to when they're not.

McDavid's ON/OFF ratio is stratospheric. His personal metric (which we saw in table 3) wasn't stellar, but that's because he's playing in front of poor defense and goaltending. Nobody has had a bigger impact on their team than McDavid at even-strength. (I've done some research into historical ON/OFF results and a ratio of 1.53 is among the highest results I've ever seen - he really is that good).

Among players who have actually played the entire decade, Crosby is at the top of the list, ahead of Bergeron, Toews and Kopitar by a small but clear margin. If we're comparing Crosby to Bergeron, the Boston centre has better personal results, but also played in a more favourable environment (i.e. on a stronger team). Crosby generates more offense and is weaker defensively (this should surprise no one), so they get their results in different ways, but the results are fairly close, though still clearly in Crosby's favour. (Before someone suggests that Bergeron is actually the best forward of the past decade, remember that this looks at ES only - not only did Crosby have a more favourable ratio at ES, he also outscored Bergeon by 114 points on the powerplay - and although Bergeron played far more on the penalty kill, I'd have a hard time accepting that Bergeron's penalty killing was worth that much powerplay production).

Evgeni Malkin is tied for last. I think this metric might be somewhat unfair to him. Since he usually doesn't play with Crosby at ES, his R-OFF number contains a lot of Crosby's performance. You see the same thing with Mark Messier in Edmonton - his R-OFF contains a lot of Wayne Gretzky, so his ON/OFF ratio wasn't very good. I think, in a case like this, we can probably conclude that this metric isn't fair for Malkin (it wasn't fair for Messier either, until Gretzky was traded away).

Alex Ovechkin is also tied for last. This metric suggests that the Capitals do better when he's on the ice than when he's not, but only by a small margin - at least at even strength. I don't think this is a controversial finding. After a stellar start to his career, Ovechkin has reinvented himself as a player who relies on the powerplay. Out of the top 100 highest-scoring forwards from the past decade, 95 of them have scored a lower percentage of their points on the powerplay. Ovechkin's excellent production with the man advantage isn't reflected here, so it would be inaccurate to state that Ovechkin is the worst player on this list - but I think it's fair to say that he isn't anywhere close to the game-changer at even strength that he was when he was at his peak.

Going back to the question in the original post - the data clearly indicates that Crosby is an excellent player at even-strength (possibly the best of the past decade, depending on how much weight we want to give to McDavid's last 3.5 years). Isolating defense specifically, if we look at how he's done relative to the strength of his team (Table 3), Crosby's performance is similar to Anze Kopitar's. True, he's not as good defensively as Patrice Bergeron, but nobody has suggested that's a reasonable comparison (Bergeron has been a Selke finalist eight years in a row, with three wins, while Crosby has never been a finalist for that trophy). Crosby wasn't used much on the penalty kill, and in my opinion that should preclude him from winning the Selke trophy - but again, he's never even been a finalist for that award. A decent comparison for Crosby might be late-career Peter Forsberg - who didn't play much on the PK but was an extraordinary two-way player at even strength (on account of outstanding offense and fairly good defense).

 

[Gurglesons]

Weird how when someone runs the data without an agenda it shows Crosby is in the Kopitar range which is what most sane Penguins fan say.

 

[Filthy Dangles]

OPs obsession with Sidney Crosby is unhealthy

 

[GreatGonzo]

Weird how when someone runs the data without an agenda it shows Crosby is in the Kopitar range which is what most sane Penguins fan say.

Where? When? So your suggesting that Crosby is on Kopitars level defensively over the last decade? Those a charts showing ES production.

And people wonder why many say he’s overrated defensively. Proof right here.

 

[Gurglesons]

Where? When? So your suggesting that Crosby is on Kopitars level defensively over the last decade? Those a charts showing ES production.

And people wonder why many say he’s overrated defensively. Proof right here.

I’m surprised you are talking negatively about Sidney Crosby in a Midnight Judges thread. Rarity.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

Damn Pavelski graded out crazy strong in that

 

[GreatGonzo]

I’m surprised you are talking negatively about Sidney Crosby in a Midnight Judges thread. Rarity.

And once again not surprised of your inability to NOT jump the gun and make statements/start arguments that I have nothing to do with the topic at hand. It you honestly believe Crosby is close to Kopitar defensively, then that’s your right. Just be prepared to back up your claim, something your not good at, at all.

“Ya Crosby isn’t as good as those guys defensively, but how many scoring titles do those guys have?! What’s their PPG like!”

“*sees a chart showing ES production(in other words offense).* what do you know! Crosby is on Kopitars level defensively!”

You seriously don’t think things through before you start typing. Your quick to defend when it isn’t necessary and quick to criticize when it’s not going your way.

I made it clear that comparing Crosby to those players is OBVIOUSLY bias against Crosby and completely unfair. Adding Ovechkin only further showed that. That’s why I named the players I did trying to suggest that these players would be more suitable to match him with when comparing. And what did you say?...”THEY ARENT EVEN CLOSE TO CROSBY OFFENSIVELY!!” I’m on your side and you still had to overreact and lash out over literally nothing.

seriously, chill out. We get it, you have an infatuation with Crosby and can’t control yourself when the discussion is about him. Your emotional attachment to him only leaves you looking some type of way.

 

[drugold]

Imagine?I totally understand, I’m married.

Imagine being obsessed with someone you hate. The misery of OP makes sense when you think about it.

I feel bad for you, Midnight Judges. You're a sad case.

 

[Yackiberg8]

And once again not surprised of your inability to NOT jump the gun and make statements/start arguments that I have nothing to do with the topic at hand. It you honestly believe Crosby is close to Kopitar defensively, then that’s your right. Just be prepared to back up your claim, something your not good at, at all.

“Ya Crosby isn’t as good as those guys defensively, but how many scoring titles do those guys have?! What’s their PPG like!”

“*sees a chart showing ES production(in other words offense).* what do you know! Crosby is on Kopitars level defensively!”

You seriously don’t think things through before you start typing. Your quick to defend when it isn’t necessary and quick to criticize when it’s not going your way.

I made it clear that comparing Crosby to those players is OBVIOUSLY bias against Crosby and completely unfair. Adding Ovechkin only further showed that. That’s why I named the players I did trying to suggest that these players would be more suitable to match him with when comparing. And what did you say?...”THEY ARENT EVEN CLOSE TO CROSBY OFFENSIVELY!!” I’m on your side and you still had to overreact and lash out over literally nothing.

seriously, chill out. We get it, you have an infatuation with Crosby and can’t control yourself when the discussion is about him. Your emotional attachment to him only leaves you looking some type of way.

The bolded is very ironic.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Going back to the question in the original post - the data clearly indicates that Crosby is an excellent player at even-strength...

Uh no. That is absolutely not the question in the original post.

The question was about preventing goals at ES and with a man advantage, in the regular season and in the playoffs, and penalty killing - otherwise known as defense.

Nobody is questioning Crosby's offensive ability, or even that his offensive ability far outweighs his defensive deficiencies.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Weird how when someone runs the data without an agenda it shows Crosby is in the Kopitar range which is what most sane Penguins fan say.

The data absolutely doesn't say that though. You are not comprehending it. Kopitar's baseline is a better baseline defense than Crosby's - meaning he is being held to a higher standard. Same goes for Ovie and Backstrom.

Kopitar takes on a shutdown role, and penalty kills 2 minutes per game in the regular season and playoffs. Sidney Crosby has never shut anyone down, and penalty kills 1/4 as much as Kopitar in the regular season and 1/10th as much in the playoffs.

Kopitar's defense on the powerplay is also far superior to Crosby's.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Well, it shouldn’t be a debate. It is raw data, the issue is the poster used on ice data and goals against which shows nothing. Goals are scored randomly.

"Goals are scored randomly."

That's gotta be one of the greatest quotes in HF history.

 

[Caps8112]

I've spot-checked many (but not all) of the numbers, and it looks like what he's posted is accurate.

Some important context is missing though - what type of goaltending were these players in front of? Crosby's playoff numbers aren't very good (in terms of goals against per minute), but Marc Andre Fleury was awful four years in a row (posting numbers that would have been respectable in the 1980's). Bergeron has never played in front of goaltending that stopped fewer than 90.5% of their shots in any playoff run in the 2010's.

(That being said - there's no question that Bergeron is a better defensive player than Crosby. But I think the gap between them is smaller than the numbers suggest, because we're comparing Thomas and Rask to some truly awful years from Fleury).

In no way would I try to say Ovi is better then Sid Defensively. Two different positions with roles and responsibilities but Im curious why it matters which goalies Crosby had when hes being scored on but it doesn't matter which goalies he crucified in the playoffs in his first 5 years while Ovi played Lundqvist every damn year. Crosby was torching Ottawa and NYI goalies for pts in the playoffs when Ovi played the King. It was obviously uncontrollable for Crosby and it most likely has evened out over the last 8 years or so but which goalies Crosby had backing him up shouldn't matter if everything evens out over their careers. Caps really didn't have a playoffs goalie until Holtby showed up. Do we really want to say Huet, Theodore and the rest of the journeymen and "never were" are better then Fleury was.

 

[Midnight Judges]

TABLE 3 - ES GOALS AGAINST PER 60 MINUTES vs TEAM AVERAGE

Player	Games	ES GA/ 60 min	Team ES GA/ 60 min	RATIO
Joe Pavelski	755	2.33	2.34	1.00
Patrice Bergeron	725	2.22	2.18	1.02
Jonathan Toews	727	2.50	2.42	1.03
Joe Thornton	730	2.47	2.34	1.06
Nicklas Backstrom	731	2.43	2.29	1.06
Anze Kopitar	767	2.40	2.17	1.11
Sidney Crosby	653	2.69	2.42	1.11
Claude Giroux	776	2.78	2.49	1.11
Ryan Getzlaf	687	2.62	2.34	1.12
Jamie Benn	745	2.86	2.48	1.15
Alex Ovechkin	760	2.69	2.29	1.18
Steven Stamkos	667	2.96	2.51	1.18
Patrick Kane	741	2.87	2.42	1.19
Evgeni Malkin	610	2.90	2.42	1.20
Connor McDavid	287	3.24	2.68	1.21

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

This is the same data as in the previous table, but with the team's ES GA data included as well. It helps provide context. For example, we see that Crosby and Ovechkin are on the ice for the same number of ES goals against per 60 minutes - but Crosby played in front of defense and goaltending that allowed more ES goals against per minute. Superficially, it might look like their defensive performances were equal, but that's only if the context of their team is ignored.

Once again we see certain players - specifically Toews, Backstrom and Crosby - fare better than other, less defensively-minded teammates - specifically Kane, Ovechkin, and Malkin.

For all the flak Toews takes for his "intangibles", the numbers clearly demonstrate that Toews is an excellent defensive forward at even-strength. His numbers weren't overly impressive in Table 2, but as we see here, once we take into account the fact that the Black Hawks are much weaker at goal prevention than the Bruins (primarily on account of goaltending), there's not much that separates Toews and Bergeron defensively.

McDavid still doesn't look great here, even once we take into account how poor the Oilers have been. But he's not far off from one-way forwards like Ovechkin, Stamkos, Kane and Malkin - as opposed to being far behind every else, which is what the data in Table 2 incorrectly suggested.

It is interesting to compare to team average, but what does the defensive acumen of the 3rd or 4th line players have to do with top line players? Isn't that going to make up roughly a third to half the data? This could probably be more focused by using linemates + most likely D pairings (for example Crosby plays a lot with Letang, etc.).

It might also reflect the nature of the system they are playing in (Pens being geared more to offense), or the quality of depth players (Oilers) who are hardly ever on the ice with star players.