A lesson in advanced stats please...

[Doggy]

I actually think this could be an ongoing thread for Q&A to help those of us who don't understand all of it...

I was talking with a Habs fan about Laine and he was gloating about how good he has been and I had remarked that I had heard he was a power play beast but really poor at even strength. He said no, that Laine had been really good at even strength.

So I was looking at PuckPedia today and realized they offer up some advanced metrics and so I glanced at Laine's page. I think it confirms what I was stating but I am not really sure. Was wondering if someone could clarify what I am looking at. The link is: https://puckpedia.com/player/patrik-laine

GF% (35.7): I assume this means that at even strength (5v5, 4v4 and 3v3), when Laine is on the ice the Habs score 35.7% of the goals and the opponent scores 64.3% of the goals?

DFF% (39.10): I know I am going to word this wrong but I think I understand. Without going into the metrics of how they determine the danger-osity of a shot, this tells me when Laine is on the ice the Habs get 39.1% of the danger-osity and the opponent gets 60.9% of the danger-osity? Seems like this should track similar to the xGF%. I think I just like saying danger-osity

Relative DFF% (-12.6): Does this tell me that when Laine is on the ice the Habs DFF% is 39.1% and when he is not on the ice the Habs DFF% is 51.7% (Laine's DFF% + 12.6%)?

CF% (40.10): Corsi I get, that's like Advanced Metrics 101. When Laine is on the ice, the Habs take 40.1% of the shots and the opponent 59.9% of the shots. Does this include power play time? If it does, then that would make his even strength numbers even shittier than they already are.

Relative CF% (-11.4): I assume this tracks like Relative DFF%. When Laine is on the ice the Habs CF% is 40.10 so when Laine is not on the ice their CF% is 51.5%?

Are G/60 and P/60 only even strength? Because he has eight goals this season but his G/60 is blank. I assume that means he has 8 PP goals and not a single goal at even strength.

Click to read more...

 

[Viqsi]

I can at least confirm that all 8 of his goals so far have been on the power play.

The rest of your impressions appear accurate to me as well, but the site itself would have to clarify further.

 

[joybang]

FWIW on Laine’s JFresh card (which is a 3 year weighted average) he ranks 39% for even strength offense and 15% defense.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

jumping in to point out that laine's 5v5 metrics in the two years here under larsen were quite good and that those were arguably the best version of laine that we've seen at the NHL level. but our power play was bad, so we didn't get all those highlights of laine clapping bombs.

now it switched – he's awful again at 5v5 but scoring a ton on the power play, and everyone's talking about a laine resurgence. feels like i'm going crazy. he stinks now and is a net negative at 5v5, while playing with (arguably) better linemates than he often did here.

 

[Doggy]

Question about GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). Is that a cumulative stat? I hear people cite it but it seems to me a GSAx/Game would be a more useful stat. If Player A has a GSAx of 5 and has played 30 games and Player B has a GSAx of 3 but has played just 15 games, then Player A has the higher GSAx but per game Player B has been better.

Am I understanding this statistic correctly? Shouldn't people be citing GSAx/Game and not GSAx?

 

[Aaaarrgghh]

Question about GSAx (Goals Saved Above Expected). Is that a cumulative stat? I hear people cite it but it seems to me a GSAx/Game would be a more useful stat. If Player A has a GSAx of 5 and has played 30 games and Player B has a GSAx of 3 but has played just 15 games, then Player A has the higher GSAx but per game Player B has been better.

Am I understanding this statistic correctly? Shouldn't people be citing GSAx/Game and not GSAx?

There is a GSAx/60 metric. I'm not really an analytics guy, but I tend to think of GSAx the same way you think about goals. Yes, 15 goals in 15 games is theoretically scoring at a higher pace than 49 goals in 50 games, but the latter is definitely more impressive.