Blue Jays Discussion: A 7-run lead is the most dangerous lead in baseball.

[KapG]

Goins was pulled for Valencia in the 8th, offensive sub because we were down a run. We had nobody left on the bench.

Should have kept goins in there.

 

[Suntouchable13]

One thing I want to know. Would you trust Cecil in a one run game in the playoffs? Or even in a late season game with the playoffs on the line? I would be scared as hell. No way, Jays need an upgrade. You can't deny it.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

Should have kept goins in there.

You should be a manager.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

One thing I want to know. Would you trust Cecil in a one run game in the playoffs? Or even in a late season game with the playoffs on the line? I would be scared as hell. No way, Jays need an upgrade. You can't deny it.

What I like about this post is its timeliness.

Whom would you like to acquire, and for what?

 

[LaCarriere]

It's easy in hindsight, but part of that loss has to belong to Gibbons -- he just ended up over-managing in a NL game when it probably would have been better to just do less.

Valencia at 2B? If they had somebody with a decent amount of 2B experience the offensive sub makes sense -- heck they should have just put Martin there like the did earlier in the season -- he's probably a better 2B than Valencia.

Carrera playing at the fence -- especially with the runner on the move on a 3-2 pitch with a lefty pull hitter? If Carrera gets beat playing normal depth by Duda going oppo then whatever, but to let a bloop fall in because Carrera is basically sitting on the fence was dumb.

It was just a silly way to lose such an important game.

 

[hoglund]

What I like about this post is its timeliness.

Whom would you like to acquire, and for what?

Cecil saved two games in the 11 game winning streak, Papelbon from Phillies has been rumoured, I'm not sure what they want for him, I think Cecil didn't pitch too badly yesterday, he got the easy game ending double play ball grounder and the defense blew it, not Cecil.

 

[Discoverer]

It's easy in hindsight, but part of that loss has to belong to Gibbons -- he just ended up over-managing in a NL game when it probably would have been better to just do less.

Valencia at 2B? If they had somebody with a decent amount of 2B experience the offensive sub makes sense -- heck they should have just put Martin there like the did earlier in the season -- he's probably a better 2B than Valencia.

Carrera playing at the fence -- especially with the runner on the move on a 3-2 pitch with a lefty pull hitter? If Carrera gets beat playing normal depth by Duda going oppo then whatever, but to let a bloop fall in because Carrera is basically sitting on the fence was dumb.

It was just a silly way to lose such an important game.

I don't think you would be saying "then whatever" if that happened. If Carrera played shallow and had a ball hit over his head, we would all be saying "Why weren't they playing no-doubles defense with the Mets best power hitter up so they can cut the run off at the plate?"

Same with Valencia... it was a calculated risk that backfired. The pitcher was a lefty, and Valencia is one of the best hitters in all of baseball against lefties. It didn't work out, but it was a bold (but smart) move. Gibbons was playing to win by bringing in a vastly better hitter rather than playing to keep the game tied by letting Goins hit.

 

[Mach85]

Familia has been one of the best closers in the game this year, and he blew the save last night. We took two from Robertson, one of the best arms out there. It happens. If this becomes a trend, then I'd talk about it. But let's be real: we just won 11 of 12, and lost this last one in a game that's about as close as it gets. A knee-jerk reaction is not helpful at all. I don't think anyone disputes that we need another quality bullpen arm if we're going to be true contenders. But Cecil is not the problem, it's overall depth.

 

[topched]

I don't think you would be saying "then whatever" if that happened. If Carrera played shallow and had a ball hit over his head, we would all be saying "Why weren't they playing no-doubles defense with the Mets best power hitter up so they can cut the run off at the plate?"

Same with Valencia... it was a calculated risk that backfired. The pitcher was a lefty, and Valencia is one of the best hitters in all of baseball against lefties. It didn't work out, but it was a bold (but smart) move. Gibbons was playing to win by bringing in a vastly better hitter rather than playing to keep the game tied by letting Goins hit.

Definitely was the right move strategically, no doubles D is common practice.

But I'd like to actually see some evidence it is a smart strategy or if no doubles actually translates into more singles.

I look at the Valencia tag out and wonder if they really would have gotten the DP with Goins in there. The ball wasn't hit super hard by the time the flip and exchange happen I don't know if they get the guy at 1st. The real issue in the last inning was the walk by Cecil, that unnecessary base runner is probably what's eating at him today.

 

[Swervin81]

I don't think you would be saying "then whatever" if that happened. If Carrera played shallow and had a ball hit over his head, we would all be saying "Why weren't they playing no-doubles defense with the Mets best power hitter up so they can cut the run off at the plate?"

Same with Valencia... it was a calculated risk that backfired. The pitcher was a lefty, and Valencia is one of the best hitters in all of baseball against lefties. It didn't work out, but it was a bold (but smart) move. Gibbons was playing to win by bringing in a vastly better hitter rather than playing to keep the game tied by letting Goins hit.

Except Duda, a dead pull power hitting lefty, hits far more shallow floaters and popups than liners when it's hit into LF. The percentages would dictate LF playing at normal depth was the right move.

 

[KapG]

You should be a manager.

It's not like goins has been that terrible offensively the last bunch of games.

Anyways, putting Valencia in there sure worked...

I like to think goins would have turned that double play. Oh well.

The bigger problem is having Cecil as the closer. I don't think his fastball is good enough for that role. Way too much nibbling at the edges too.

 

[Suntouchable13]

Cecil saved two games in the 11 game winning streak, Papelbon from Phillies has been rumoured, I'm not sure what they want for him, I think Cecil didn't pitch too badly yesterday, he got the easy game ending double play ball grounder and the defense blew it, not Cecil.

He did not inspire any confidence in me at all last night or ever. I'd be a lot more confident if he pounded the zone and gave up a home run instead.

 

[Discoverer]

It's not like goins has been that terrible offensively the last bunch of games.

Anyways, putting Valencia in there sure worked...

I like to think goins would have turned that double play. Oh well.

Goins has a career 41 wRC+ against lefties.
Valencia has a career 141 wRC+ against lefties.

Whether it worked out or not, putting Valencia in gave the Jays a much, much better chance of winning the game.

 

[Discoverer]

Except Duda, a dead pull power hitting lefty, hits far more shallow floaters and popups than liners when it's hit into LF. The percentages would dictate LF playing at normal depth was the right move.

Not true at all.

The arrow points to his hit last night. There are no other hits even remotely in the same vicinity. They played the percentages well.

 

[Paris in Flames]

https://www.facebook.com/stephenamell/videos/871501656268436

If Oliver Queen can't save this...nobody can!

 

[Radiohead]

Actually about $570k of pool savings to date, with 3 slotted players left to sign (worth about $1.6m of slot value)

Or, as Radiohead noted, they would have about $770k left to spend at the moment before they triggered the 5% overage tax that starts costing draft picks. Obviously that $770k would have to all be spent on unslotted players otherwise the # changes based on slotted signings.

I think you might be underestimating the budget available just a tad bit. According to this tracker,

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/introducing-the-2015-blue-jays-draft-pick-signing-tracker/

there's about $578,900 in savings so far. Coupled with the 5% overage ($270,550), that should be about $849,450 under budget.

EDIT: Looks like there might be an error in your pool allotment number. It should be $5,411,000 instead of $3,803,700.

 

[Swervin81]

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/17/s...rdinals-hack-astros-fbi.html?smid=tw-bna&_r=1

So apparently, the Cardinals are being investigated for hacking into the Astros. So THAT is how they draft and evaluate so well

 

[Longshot]

I think you might be underestimating the budget available just a tad bit. According to this tracker,

http://www.bluejaysplus.com/introducing-the-2015-blue-jays-draft-pick-signing-tracker/

there's about $578,900 in savings so far. Coupled with the 5% overage ($270,550), that should be about $849,450 under budget.

EDIT: Looks like there might be an error in your pool allotment number. It should be $5,411,000 instead of $3,803,700.

Can somebody explain why it matters that they save money signing their draft picks under "slot"?

Does it give them more money to spend next year? Did they draft a bright high school prospect in the later rounds who has committed to college that they can now throw extra money at to try and sign?

I'm just curious as to why anybody would care how much they're saving on their draft pick signings.

 

[Diamond Joe Quimby]

It's not like goins has been that terrible offensively the last bunch of games.

Anyways, putting Valencia in there sure worked...

I like to think goins would have turned that double play. Oh well.

The bigger problem is having Cecil as the closer. I don't think his fastball is good enough for that role. Way too much nibbling at the edges too.

Trevor Hoffman's fastball peaked at 88 mph.

 

[KapG]

Goins has a career 41 wRC+ against lefties.
Valencia has a career 141 wRC+ against lefties.

Whether it worked out or not, putting Valencia in gave the Jays a much, much better chance of winning the game.

True enough. I just like what goins had been doing at the plate the last series and a bit and his defense is the best we have on the team.

Oh well, none of that should have mattered if Cecil didn't **** the bed.

Has Osuna been tried as the closer yet? Wouldn't mind seeing him instead of Cecil, at least for a little.

 

[Swervin81]

Not true at all.

The arrow points to his hit last night. There are no other hits even remotely in the same vicinity. They played the percentages well.

I stand corrected. Jeez, I didn't even notice how shallow it was.

 

[RayzorIsDull]

Not true at all.

The arrow points to his hit last night. There are no other hits even remotely in the same vicinity. They played the percentages well.

Why wasn't Carrera playing shallower then? Spray chart shows very few fly balls to the warning track.

 

[Longshot]

The bigger problem is having Cecil as the closer. I don't think his fastball is good enough for that role. Way too much nibbling at the edges too.

The issue with Cecil, at this point, is: we don't know if he can be the closer.

I'm not worried about his "stuff". He has a long track record of getting guys out in the big leagues. But we all know there are plenty of examples of solid middle relief pitchers that haven't been able to transition into the closer's role. It happens all the time, it's a job that's not for everybody.

I think the Jays made a huge error when they pulled him from the closer's role earlier in the season and gave it to Castro. He had no opportunity to settle into the role at all. Then they had that big long streak of games with no saves and suddenly it's mid-June, the team is in contention and it has no idea if its closer can really do the job.

The way I see it: Cecil could reel off ten straight saves over the next few weeks and this will cease to be an issue. Or he will struggle, blow some games they should have won and by the time the team realizes it needs to make a move in that role it will have blown a bunch of winnable games.

It's a delicate situation and really is proof that if you want to be a contender you can't really have players "auditioning" for their roles.

 

[topched]

Why wasn't Carrera playing shallower then? Spray chart shows very few fly balls to the warning track.

Traditionally no doubles defense the idea is to prevent balls over the OF head. A regular depth ball and Carerra has no problem making the catch. Even a ball that is more left-centre Carerra runs in and holds Duda to a single. The combination of left field and ultra shallow was pretty much the only indefensible area on the field in that alignment. If you watch the replay, a stronger relay by Carerra and Donaldson has a very good chance of nailing Cuddyer at home

 

[KapG]

Trevor Hoffman's fastball peaked at 88 mph.

Cecil is no Hoffman. That's pretty apparent.