Prospect Info: 9OA: Nate Danielson

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This site is definitely unique in that regard. I mean you go look at a random prospect's thread who is rated in the teens on the prospect sub and people will say their floor is some all star player and their ceiling is some superstar player. That is one thing people are super out of touch with, the floor of these respective players. Most players that get drafted are not exempt from completely flaming out. There is a wider range of outcomes with prospects than most want to believe, and part of that spectrum includes outright failing.

That said, I think on this sub in particular, outlook is shaped by our situation. We literally have to have our prospects exceed expectations for the rebuild at hand to work. If every player became exactly what was the typical outcome for their draft slot, we would end up a shitty hockey team.... period. So yeah, people are going to have higher expectations for draft picks and probably in some cases just try to focus on the optimistic side of things. And I understand why that might be. But there's also nothing wrong with reminding people of what that draft slot usually yields too. I can see both sides of that.

Even then, most people don’t even know what exceeding expectations looks like. On average, about two players drafted in the second round each year go on to become Top 6 F/ Top 4 D. Yzerman has selected eleven F/D in the second round since becoming GM, if one of those players becomes a Top 6 F/ Top 4 D, we would technically be exceeding expectations. If two players from that group become Top 6 F/ Top 4 D, we’d be smashing expectations. I’d assume most here think getting two Top 6 F/ Top 4 D out of eleven second round draft picks would be a disappointment.

 

[Dotter]

Damn, didn't realize my comment was going to goat so many members!
The safe bet to "look good" here on this forum is to count everyone a bust or a subpar NHLer. Because in the most likely scenario in drafting is finding the next Slater Koekkoek (10th overall) than drafting the next Filip Forsberg (11th overall).

So always bet on Slater Koekkoek being the flop, and never say Filip Forsberg might be a star - if you call Forsberg a bad pick after the draft, no one will remember. That's a wise strategy for popular votes.

I usually don't overrate prospects:

• I never seen anything special about Zadina.
• Never seen anything special about Berggren (I called him a bust).
• Never seen anything special about Bertuzzi (what is he doing now?).
• I don't think Edvinsson will ever reach Hronek levels of impact.
• I do think (edvinsson will be a solid top4).
• I don't see anything special with Kasper other than being a tough to play against gnat that can contribute to offense - but will have an NHL career.
• I think Rasmussen is special as in the the big force that will go beast mode in the playoffs and in big games. Not a scoring Lindros... but a big shut down guy that frustrates the other team and scores timely clutch goals.

But... with Danielson... I see something special. Burn me at the stake!

 

[stillwater]

I never saw much in The Tragically Hip or Rush as a young man. (super dumb)

 

[Our Lady Peace]

I don't have any issues seeing Danielson become a 30/45/75 guy with great 200 foot play. Many complained about the pick in June, and by September's end we all watched him nearly crack the opening night roster. I think it speaks to the quality of hockey brain he already has.

He's a player that just gets the game. So all of us are pretty much on board with him becoming at least a shutdown 3C. His upside, understandably is much harder to pin as we are all going to see and value different things in his play.

Personally, watching that first goal with Portland I think you have to pay attention to the route he took to getting to the front of the net and scoring that goal.
- Protected the puck heading up the right side to the blueline where he handed it off in tight space with a guy draped over him
- Routed himself slowly along the blueline and then the left circle as his guy set the puck for himself.
- By then, Danielson completely lost the defense and timed himself perfectly to give his guy a passing lane right to the front of the net
- He receives the difficult pass and exemplifies a deft touch and finish and didn't miss a stride. Not to mention his strides are silky smooth and he gets around effortlessly.

He did the same things last year in Brandon, he's just pretty raw offensively. He's innately a smart player and you can see him experimenting game by game. This season he got NHL action, went back to the same dysfunctional system. He didn't look worse, I just think he was held back. I think we can also all agree that he was one of the better and more consistent players on a WJC team that lacked a killer instinct unlike recent years.

During the summer, I had liked his upside more than anyone than isn't Edvinsson (now ASP is genuinely pushing that envelope, he's amazing). Danielson will be a guy that we debate his upside for a few years but eventually as a 24 or 25 year old he starts hitting 70+ point offensive numbers and shutting down better players. He leads by example, is well spoken, and seems to have that "Captain" vibe to him. He'll eventually be wearing a letter for this franchise I think.

 

[Frk It]

Even then, most people don’t even know what exceeding expectations looks like. On average, about two players drafted in the second round each year go on to become Top 6 F/ Top 4 D. Yzerman has selected eleven F/D in the second round since becoming GM, if one of those players becomes a Top 6 F/ Top 4 D, we would technically be exceeding expectations. If two players from that group become Top 6 F/ Top 4 D, we’d be smashing expectations. I’d assume most here think getting two Top 6 F/ Top 4 D out of eleven second round draft picks would be a disappointment.

Funny thing when you keep track of the picks you would have made every year.

You realize that most of the team even if they would have picked that guy you liked better in the 2nd round, that guy usually doesn’t end up becoming much either.

This is something I think @Rzombo4 prez has pointed out, and I know it to be true looking back on what I hav

 

[SirloinUB]

I like a lot of our prospects, but man, this forum, historically and still today….. just vastly overrates our prospects.

If this forum were even 50% right on prospects, Detroit should have about 4-5 Cups in their near future. Would be amazing.

This site is definitely unique in that regard. I mean you go look at a random prospect's thread who is rated in the teens on the prospect sub and people will say their floor is some all star player and their ceiling is some superstar player. That is one thing people are super out of touch with, the floor of these respective players. Most players that get drafted are not exempt from completely flaming out. There is a wider range of outcomes with prospects than most want to believe, and part of that spectrum includes outright failing.

That said, I think on this sub in particular, outlook is shaped by our situation. We literally have to have our prospects exceed expectations for the rebuild at hand to work. If every player became exactly what was the typical outcome for their draft slot, we would end up a shitty hockey team.... period. So yeah, people are going to have higher expectations for draft picks and probably in some cases just try to focus on the optimistic side of things. And I understand why that might be. But there's also nothing wrong with reminding people of what that draft slot usually yields too. I can see both sides of that.

This is odd framing. You are discussing a community of individuals as if its a single entity. The reality is there are 1800 members viewing this website right now (how many more throughout the year??).

You say "this forum/sub overrates our prospects" but really all you're doing is attributing a variety of different opinions to a single entity.

More simply, If you post about how great you think ASP will be, I do the same for Edvinsson, someone else does the same for Cossa, someone else posts about how great they think Wallinder will be and someone else does the same for Danielson; on aggregate we think all 5 players will be great. That doesn't mean we all, or even one of us, think all 5 are going to be great.

 

[jaster]

This is odd framing. You are discussing a community of individuals as if its a single entity. The reality is there are 1800 members viewing this website right now (how many more throughout the year??).

You say "this forum/sub overrates our prospects" but really all you're doing is attributing a variety of different opinions to a single entity.

More simply, If you post about how great you think ASP will be, I do the same for Edvinsson, someone else does the same for Cossa, someone else posts about how great they think Wallinder will be and someone else does the same for Danielson; on aggregate we think all 5 players will be great. That doesn't mean we all, or even one of us, think all 5 are going to be great.

True, and Dotter made that point earlier when he clarified that while he thinks Danielson will be Anze Kopitar+, he thinks our other prospects are crap.

Framing it as "this forum commonly and often overrates prospects" would be more accurate. And I'll still insist there is something to it, because I haven't seen the same thing happen in other hockey communities.

 

[lomekian]

Don't remember the fantastic 4 defenders? Man we were stacked!

Or Gus and Tats the saviors?

tbf having OHL and CHL award winners who weren't overage turn into nothing at all is an unexpected disappointment.

 

[lomekian]

To this day, I can't understand how all of Smith, Kindl, Ouellett, Sproul, Marchenko, and Almquist. We all knew that a couple wouldn't develop, but it seems crazy that they all stalled out completely at the same time.

Yeah - Oullette, Sproul and Almqvist all had fantastic d+1 years as well

 

[Dotter]

True, and Dotter made that point earlier when he clarified that while he thinks Danielson will be Anze Kopitar+, he thinks our other prospects are crap.

When you post blatant lies like this is why you have zero credibility on these forum under your "jaster" username. You might need to change your username so people forget how untruthful you are.

Everything you posted above is either embellished/exaggerated or a straight up lie. Anyone who read my old posts, then read yours knows you are a straight up liar. You think people are too stupid to see through your bullshit?

 

[jaster]

When you post blatant lies like this is why you have zero credibility on these forum under your "jaster" username. You might need to change your username so people forget how untruthful you are.

Everything you posted above is either embellished/exaggerated or a straight up lie. Anyone who read my old posts, then read yours knows you are a straight up liar. You think people are too stupid to see through your bullshit?

This stings. Truly. I’ll consider your recommendation.

 

[Pavels Dog]

To this day, I can't understand how all of Smith, Kindl, Ouellett, Sproul, Marchenko, and Almquist. We all knew that a couple wouldn't develop, but it seems crazy that they all stalled out completely at the same time.

I think at this point we have to some give credit to Smith.
26th in games played for his draft class, pretty much dead-on value for where he was picked.

One thing the forums are generally just not good at is identifying the holes in players' games. They see a tool or two and then dream on them.... ignoring, or downplying, the fact that the kid can't skate. Or does not compete. Or has low IQ. Or whatever other deficiency that basically makes the kid a longshot, despite that wicked shot, or silky hands. We hyper-focus on the sexy tools and neglect the boring ones. But the thing is, in hockey, the boring tools are at least as important as the sexy tools.

True, but in another part of the spectrum are prospects with complete games and no standout tools (Kasper, Mazur, Danielson, Seider, Johansson etc.) who often to get underrated compared to players with more flashy games. That's not to say they will all be successful, but I think part of recent years sometimes negative discourse on the future of the team is because we haven't gone for the obvious sexy tools in the draft.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

 

[jkutswings]

So Nate plays better... with better teammates.

Huh.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

If Kasper and this Danielson are both centers we are set up nice for the future. I hope they can be impact players that can put up points on the next level!

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

nate was 20/27 on face offs as well

 

[Gniwder]

Danielson is most likely going to end up an elite 2c who can play 1c when Larkin gets injured. A guy who can consistently hit 25-45-70 while shutting down the other team's scorers. That's my read after seeing his preseason play.

Isn't an "elite" 2C the same as a bad 1C? Why do people here overuse the word "elite"?

If Danielson indeed becomes a 70 pt player, it's more like having 1A-1B option anyways. Right now the Wings' best winger is actually playing the second line, and JT is a 50 pt center.

 

[jkutswings]

Isn't an "elite" 2C the same as a bad 1C? Why do people here overuse the word "elite"?

Totally epic take. Forum users embrace hyperbole to a life-changing degree.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Hey @jaster …
.
.
.

 

[DTR]

Scored the first goal of the game

 

[jaster]

Hey @jaster …
.
.
.

What did I miss? Was I wrong about something? It would be a first!

 

[Our Lady Peace]

He's fired up. He loves playing with actual good players lol

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Speaking of good players, this Luca Cagnoni kid is ripping it up for Portland. 53 points in 39 games... as a defenseman. SJ got him in the 2nd round. He's only 5'9, but... damn.

Luca Cagnoni at eliteprospects.com

Eliteprospects.com hockey player profile of Luca Cagnoni, 2004-12-21 Burnaby, BC, CAN Canada. Most recently in the WHL with Portland Winterhawks. Complete player biography and stats.

www.eliteprospects.com

 

[ricky0034]

Damn, didn't realize my comment was going to goat so many members!
The safe bet to "look good" here on this forum is to count everyone a bust or a subpar NHLer. Because in the most likely scenario in drafting is finding the next Slater Koekkoek (10th overall) than drafting the next Filip Forsberg (11th overall).

So always bet on Slater Koekkoek being the flop, and never say Filip Forsberg might be a star - if you call Forsberg a bad pick after the draft, no one will remember. That's a wise strategy for popular votes.

I usually don't overrate prospects:

• I never seen anything special about Zadina.
• Never seen anything special about Berggren (I called him a bust).
• Never seen anything special about Bertuzzi (what is he doing now?).
• I don't think Edvinsson will ever reach Hronek levels of impact.
• I do think (edvinsson will be a solid top4).
• I don't see anything special with Kasper other than being a tough to play against gnat that can contribute to offense - but will have an NHL career.
• I think Rasmussen is special as in the the big force that will go beast mode in the playoffs and in big games. Not a scoring Lindros... but a big shut down guy that frustrates the other team and scores timely clutch goals.

But... with Danielson... I see something special. Burn me at the stake!

there's a giant difference between thinking someone can be something or even thinking someone has a good chance of being something and thinking it's their floor though

most 1st overalls don't have 80 point floors

 

[odin1981]

I'm hopeful that he becomes a diet Bergeron. If we can get that when Larkin hits age regression he should be able to switch to 1c when Larkin becomes a 2 c.