Post-Game Talk: #8 - 10/21/18 | flames @ RANGERS | 7:00 - MSG

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I feel like you're using the term "built around them" wrong here.

To me "built around them" implies that we aim to win with those guys at the core. This is the opposite of what's going on. management literally came out last season and said "We're going to suck, we're going to rebuild while we suck" and these were the guys left over. management KNOWS that you won't build a winner around these guys. But some of them are great vets and locker room leaders who bust their ass and couldn't return a lot in a trade and so they were kept.
There are a few like Kreider and Hayes who still could have potentially blossomed in a larger role. So if there were no significant trade offers, why force them out before now? You need SOME vets and we couldn't get a good enough offer for some of these guys (Zucc, Zib) so they remain.



I haven't seen this happen as much as I think you're implying it happens .

I don't think too many people were legitimately hoping for any of our current guys to suddenly morph into a bona fide top 20 forward with amazing production and game breaking ability. Maybe a few scattered souls were chatting up Mika and Kreider but I really haven't seen much besides doubt and skepticism regarding those two.



I think we need to clarify your definition of first line talent.

I agree that this roster is not designed to win and the skepticism(justifiably so) surrounding the like of Kreider and Mica is real. My issue is, management must have sat down and decided who would stay and who would go before the trade deadline last year and before we all received that missive. I recognize that it’s not fantasy hockey and players can’t just be moved overnight, but to some extent, these are the players that management chose to move forward with. These are the same guys management believed would take huge leaps in 2015,2016,2017 and have, year after year, been hanging their hats on the likes of Kreider, Hayes and Zucc. Almost every year, their play is inconsistent at best. I imagine this is “the core” because these are the guys that management has always believed capable of far more than what they actually have produced.

Here’s the way I look at it- if these 3 guys were up for grabs via trade when they still had potential, would they have fetched more in return than what they do now that their potential has turned into a dream and reality is much less? To me the answer is clear, absolutely yes! If that’s the case, this team has no core and to me, that’s absolutely worse and hints that this rebuild will be far more painful than it could be.

I also struggle to see how a team that has historically bad draft picks in the first round, is now going to put faith in their ability to identify top end talent. That’s the key— this is not about getting that 5th rounder who makes it to the NHL. This is about identifying, scouting and selecting top end talent in the first 10 picks of the draft. Nothing else matters at this point because without game changing talent this team will suffer for as many years as that’s lacking.
 
It's not a quantum leap when.
Too me, this is just wrong and every qualifier you mention COULD be important but is not important yet because

10 games in

Maybe this could improve after sometime but 10 games in and we've seen nothing out of many players. I don't think this will all of a sudden change substantially. Hockey does not work like that.
1) I think you might have a very strange definition of "nothing" for many of those players
2) It's not supposed to all of a sudden change. Why would it be something that has to change all of a sudden? It's slow and gradual. It's a rebuilding process. I think you're mistaken if you think this will ever change all of a sudden. It will be a slog for most of this year and next year a few key players will either be signed or promoted from the minors to compliment some of the guys who grow this year. The year after that we have even more additions and even more growth. At that point, we will likely be competing for the PO's again.
 
These games have been the evidence we need that the team was on the precipice last season, and keeping Nash, McDonagh, and Grabner around would not have saved this team from collapse.

It's not a purely effort or coaching thing, it was that the bill had truly come due and the team didn't have the aggregate talent any more.



It’s a rebuild...
 
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Players who need development are in lower level hockey. By the time players reach the NHL they basically are “developed” in my mind. I struggle to see how many on this roster will ever develop to beyond low end NHL talent or high end AHL talent.

This is patently false and easily disproved by the many, many examples over the years of players who did, in fact, improve from year to year as young players. Do you honestly believe 19 year old Chytil is a finished product, that this is as good as he will ever be? Or Pionk, who has played all of 34 games in the NHL? Or Howden, who has played 8 games? Remember, improvements don't come just in the form of points scored. Maybe none of our guys will be the next William Karlsson, but we absolutely should be expecting improvements from many of them. If they don't improve, that's on them, but to suggest that they can't improve is silly.
 
Where did you see 5.1?

I saw them at around 6 and a half earlier today but maybe that was prior to yesterday and a slow update

9 5v5 sounds crazy high

Yeah, 9 was too high.

7.7-8 is average. Anything below 7 is terrible. Anything below 6 is historically bad. The Rangers are in danger of going below 5 with one more bad game, so yeah, they're shooting absurdly low.

They're 4th in expected goals and 25th in actual goals.
 
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My issue is, management must have sat down and decided who would stay and who would go before the trade deadline last year and before we all received that missive.

I don't think this must be the case at all. I think they had a list of people to shop and they were likely willing to part only for specific amounts of picks or prospects. They likely also decided to keep a specific amount of vets because you absolutely must have some vets to at LEAST demonstrate work habits and give the kids a chance to play sheltered minutes.

I recognize that it’s not fantasy hockey and players can’t just be moved overnight, but to some extent, these are the players that management chose to move forward with.
Nothing wrong with that. It depends what they expect while moving forward with them All signs point to them having the right expectations.

These are the same guys management believed would take huge leaps in 2015,2016,2017 and have, year after year, been hanging their hats on the likes of Kreider, Hayes and Zucc. Almost every year, their play is inconsistent at best. I imagine this is “the core” because these are the guys that management has always believed capable of far more than what they actually have produced.
Wait how do you know managent absolutely expected huge leaps and from each and every one of them? What if they hoped for a huge leap from one or more of them but projected, reasonably, for them to continue to produce at their normal pace? Besides PR spin I doubt there's any evidence to support what you're saying. I was saying before, why not consider that this is less of a core and more of a few vets to help eat minutes and shelter the kids as they grow? Vets who can be traded if the right offer comes along.


Here’s the way I look at it- if these 3 guys were up for grabs via trade when they still had potential, would they have fetched more in return than what they do now that their potential has turned into a dream and reality is much less? To me the answer is clear, absolutely yes! If that’s the case, this team has no core and to me, that’s absolutely worse and hints that this rebuild will be far more painful than it could be.
I think you're making some massive leaps in logic. They can't carry the load themselves when surrounded by kids. Many of these same guys, when surrounded by more experienced, more competent players, were a part of cup contending teams. Some of them can be a small part of a better team again in the future. In the meantime, they can be vets doing what I mentioned before.

I also struggle to see how a team that has historically bad draft picks in the first round

What? I think you came to a completely unsupported opinion.

This is about identifying, scouting and selecting top end talent in the first 10 picks of the draft. Nothing else matters at this point because without game changing talent this team will suffer for as many years as that’s lacking.
Until literally last year we had a sample size of 1 in terms of this scouting staff having a crack at a top 10 pick. How are you coming to this assumption?

Right now, under this specific management regime Lias and Kravtsoff our only top 10 picks are looking really, really good. So 100% of the sample size that we have for this management team picking in the top 10 flies completely against your conclusion.

Chytil, a late first, is struggling as a teenage NHL rookie but has also looked great as a prospect.

Skjei was a late first who is a 2nd pair D man
JT Miller was a middle 6 winger
Where are these historic failings? We could talk about the back end of the draft but the 1st round is where the NYR have excelled.
 
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Pionk clicking around at over a half a point a game in the nhl so I think hes a definate bright spot. Chytil just turned 19 he really shouldnt even be in the nhl yet. We are all getting way to far ahead of this rebuild. This team wont compete for atleast 2 more years. Embrace it, enjoy the games even if we lose them. I'm encouraged that it appears as though the players care as the effort is there and there seems to be a commitment to getting better. I enjoyed most of that game last night because they worked hard and played for each other, and even if it cost a goal I liked that Skjei stood up for Zuc, even if it was his suicide pass that got him hit, that never would have been allowed last year.
 
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Yeah, 9 was too high.

7.7-8 is average. Anything below 7 is terrible. Anything below 6 is historically bad. The Rangers are in danger of going below 5 with one more bad game, so yeah, they're shooting absurdly low.

They're 4th in expected goals and 25th in actual goals.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they finish below 7. I think below average is a given with this group even with their xGF being where it is.

On the plus side, the system seems to be working. I’m with you on them not being too far out if things break their way - we have players at the forward position who are going to be very good, just need a ring leader.

The D will sort itself out over time.
 
This is patently false and easily disproved by the many, many examples over the years of players who did, in fact, improve from year to year as young players. Do you honestly believe 19 year old Chytil is a finished product, that this is as good as he will ever be? Or Pionk, who has played all of 34 games in the NHL? Or Howden, who has played 8 games? Remember, improvements don't come just in the form of points scored. Maybe none of our guys will be the next William Karlsson, but we absolutely should be expecting improvements from many of them. If they don't improve, that's on them, but to suggest that they can't improve is silly.

I think people are miss understanding my point. Of course players improve— I’d be a fool to assert otherwise. My point is, the Rangers need top end talent. Devoid of top end talent, they will continue to be “rebuilding” and I don’t believe top end talent can be developed. Players either have it or they don’t.

If people want to argue that the roster we have now can be developed into “better” than sure I’ll agree but how on earth can anyone believe that anything on this roster will develop into top end talent( like Crosby, Malkin, McDavid) or anywhere even sub super star player to the level of high end talent, I believe is kidding themselves.
 
I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they finish below 7. I think below average is a given with this group even with their xGF being where it is.

On the plus side, the system seems to be working. I’m with you on them not being too far out if things break their way - we have players at the forward position who are going to be very good, just need a ring leader.

The D will sort itself out over time.
I agree with this. They lack elite talent up front and sent away some of their better finishers. They should finish below average.

But nobody finishes that far below average and they should be 4-4 instead of 2-6. But if they're playing well and still moving up in the lottery, it's a win-win.

Like I said, I'm more frustrated with certain guys than the team as a whole.
 
I don't think this must be the case at all. I think they had a list of people to shop and they were likely willing to part only for specific amounts of picks or prospects. They likely also decided to keep a specific amount of vets because you absolutely must have some vets to at LEAST demonstrate work habits and give the kids a chance to play sheltered minutes.


Nothing wrong with that. It depends what they expect while moving forward with them All signs point to them having the right expectations.


Wait how do you know managent absolutely expected huge leaps and from each and every one of them? What if they hoped for a huge leap from one or more of them but projected, reasonably, for them to continue to produce at their normal pace? Besides PR spin I doubt there's any evidence to support what you're saying. I was saying before, why not consider that this is less of a core and more of a few vets to help eat minutes and shelter the kids as they grow? Vets who can be traded if the right offer comes along.



I think you're making some massive leaps in logic. They can't carry the load themselves when surrounded by kids. Many of these same guys, when surrounded by more experienced, more competent players, were a part of cup contending teams. Some of them can be a small part of a better team again in the future. In the meantime, they can be vets doing what I mentioned before.



What? I think you came to a completely unsupported opinion.


Until literally last year we had a sample size of 1 in terms of this scouting staff having a crack at a top 10 pick. How are you coming to this assumption?

Right now, under this specific management regime Lias and Kravtsoff our only top 10 picks are looking really, really good. So 100% of the sample size that we have for this management team picking in the top 10 flies completely against your conclusion.

Chytil, a late first, is struggling as a teenage NHL rookie but has also looked great as a prospect.

Skjei was a late first who is a 2nd pair D man
JT Miller was a middle 6 winger
Where are these historic failings? We could talk about the back end of the draft but the 1st round is where the NYR have excelled.

New York Rangers Draft History at hockeydb.com

I think I’ll let that link speak for itself.

Dylan Mccilrath, Hugh Jessimen, and Al Montoya come to mind just to name the most obvious. I think you are giving this organization a lot of credit for horrendous drafts for the past 10 years. If we take the draft years from 2008- 2016 the Rangers, by my count have picked 56 players. A total of 8 of them played meaningful games for the team by my count. That’s a 14% success rate over 8 years. I’m not including the past 2 years because those players still could make it. I’ll hang my hat on the argument that the Rangers are a poor drafting team( although I’d be curious to read how this compares to other teams but 14% is real low.)

I hear what you are saying about keeping a veteran core around but if this is the core to teach this new group work ethics... yikes! In the end, we are saying similar things except I think you are being far more lenient to this process than I am.
 
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New York Rangers Draft History at hockeydb.com

I think I’ll let that link speak for itself.

Before that, Dylan Mccilrath, Hugh Jessimen, just to name the two most obvious. I think you are giving this organization a lot of credit for horrendous drafts for the past 10 years. If we take the draft years from 2008- 2016 the Rangers, by my count have picked 56 players. A total of 8 of them played meaningful games for the team by my count. That’s a 14% success rate over 8 years. I’m not including the past 2 years because those players still could make it. I’ll hang my hat on the argument that the Rangers are a poor drafting team( although I’d be curious to read how this compares to other teams but 14% is real low.)

I hear what you are saying about keeping a veteran core around but if this is the core to teach this new group work ethics... yikes! In the end, we are saying similar things except I think you are being far more lenient to this process than I am.
I already addressed this

"Until literally last year we had a sample size of 1 in terms of this scouting staff having a crack at a top 10 pick. How are you coming to this assumption?

Right now, under this specific management regime Lias and Kravtsoff our only top 10 picks are looking really, really good. So 100% of the sample size that we have for this management team picking in the top 10 flies completely against your conclusion.

Chytil, a late first, is struggling as a teenage NHL rookie but has also looked great as a prospect.

Skjei was a late first who is a 2nd pair D man
JT Miller was a middle 6 winger
Where are these historic failings? We could talk about the back end of the draft but the 1st round is where the NYR have excelled."

Why are you counting 2003 against this staff (Which is straight up ridiculous) but when looking at how "bad" their picks were, you ignored all of 2004-2007?
 
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I already addressed this

"Until literally last year we had a sample size of 1 in terms of this scouting staff having a crack at a top 10 pick. How are you coming to this assumption?

Right now, under this specific management regime Lias and Kravtsoff our only top 10 picks are looking really, really good. So 100% of the sample size that we have for this management team picking in the top 10 flies completely against your conclusion.

Chytil, a late first, is struggling as a teenage NHL rookie but has also looked great as a prospect.

Skjei was a late first who is a 2nd pair D man
JT Miller was a middle 6 winger
Where are these historic failings? We could talk about the back end of the draft but the 1st round is where the NYR have excelled."

True but I’ll just say again, drafting is not this teams strong suit and picking players is very hard to do! After the top few picks, I believe everyone else is just hoping to get lucky. This further speaks to my point that top end talent can not be developed— you either are top end talent or you are not.
 
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True but I’ll just say again, drafting is not this teams strong suit and picking players is very hard to do! After the top few picks, I believe everyone else is just hoping to get lucky. This further speaks to my point that top end talent can not be developed— you either are top end talent or you are not.
You have absolutely nothing to backup your assertion that this specific regime has difficulty drafting.

The first round, for the NYR has been exceptional. (when they picked). You didn't compare our success rate to other teams. You didn't weigh the value of our picks (are we comparing our success with back end picks to teams with all top 5 picks in each round for multiple years?).

Your analysis of this is leaving out mountains of crucial detail.

And I'll agree, I think the back end of our recent drafts has been flat out below acceptable. I also acknowledge that two of those drafts since 2013 featured us having zero 1st or 2nd round picks. Another two drafts featured no 1st round pick.

We still have a handful of prospects with promise from those drafts but I would say it's reasonable to feel that we missed way too many picks from them. That said, if you compare apples to apples and look at our success in rounds 2-7 compared to every other team from 2013-now, I doubt we are that far behind.
 
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From 14-15 through 16-17, the Rangers had the highest shooting percentage by some distance and scored the most goals at even strength. (Yes, the most)

They were very recently the best finishing team in the league.

People always think their team can't finish, just like everyone thinks their team can't score on backups.

How did they do against Rittich?
 
I'm willing to be happy with the effort and look forward to this lineup next year. Add in whatever we get for Zuc,Hayes, McQuaid, Vesey,Staal(if we can) Smith(if we can). That's just year 2 if we can lure Panarin here, year 3 should be even better. I'll admit Panarin or someone of that ilk is pretty important.

Panarin Zibanajad Buchnevich
Kreider Howden Chytil
Spooner Anderson Kravtsov
Letteri Namesticov Fast.

Skjei Pionk
Hajek shattenkirk
DeAngelo Smith
Staal

What’s with “Namesticov”? Is there an inside joke I’m missing? I’ve seen like a dozen of your posts with this misspell. For some reason this bothers a hell out of me, so kindly, please look it up or just trust me and go with Namestnikov.

Also, who the hell are Zibanajad, Anderson and Letteri?
 
I agree that this roster is not designed to win and the skepticism(justifiably so) surrounding the like of Kreider and Mica is real. My issue is, management must have sat down and decided who would stay and who would go before the trade deadline last year and before we all received that missive. I recognize that it’s not fantasy hockey and players can’t just be moved overnight, but to some extent, these are the players that management chose to move forward with. These are the same guys management believed would take huge leaps in 2015,2016,2017 and have, year after year, been hanging their hats on the likes of Kreider, Hayes and Zucc. Almost every year, their play is inconsistent at best. I imagine this is “the core” because these are the guys that management has always believed capable of far more than what they actually have produced.

Here’s the way I look at it- if these 3 guys were up for grabs via trade when they still had potential, would they have fetched more in return than what they do now that their potential has turned into a dream and reality is much less? To me the answer is clear, absolutely yes! If that’s the case, this team has no core and to me, that’s absolutely worse and hints that this rebuild will be far more painful than it could be.

I also struggle to see how a team that has historically bad draft picks in the first round, is now going to put faith in their ability to identify top end talent. That’s the key— this is not about getting that 5th rounder who makes it to the NHL. This is about identifying, scouting and selecting top end talent in the first 10 picks of the draft. Nothing else matters at this point because without game changing talent this team will suffer for as many years as that’s lacking.

Respectfully, for all we know, they did look to move CK and Mika; maybe no other team in the league was willing to match our asking price. A trade that is obvious to us would likely be detrimental to a counterpart — standings are a zero-sum game — and any counterpart knows that.
 
True but I’ll just say again, drafting is not this teams strong suit and picking players is very hard to do! After the top few picks, I believe everyone else is just hoping to get lucky. This further speaks to my point that top end talent can not be developed— you either are top end talent or you are not.

But, sadly, it can be wasted (see: Florida Panthers of 2000s).
 
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