Prospect Info: 6th Overall Pick Moritz Seider, Defence, DEL

[Wyzer Plan]

This is a very optimistic view. Cholo doesn't look like he has the tools to be a top pairing D guy. And Seider has never played on North American ice, form a league that has never been known to produce elite talent (Seidenberg, and Ehrhoff are the only two major players to come out of that league). The chances that they both hit as top guys is near 0. Though I am much more hopeful Seider will become a #2 defensive d-man than I am that Cholo becomes more than a #4 PMD.

I'd be thrilled if Seider was a minute munching #2 defensive dman and cholowski was a #4 pmd. Hronek might not top out as that number 1 but hes definitely going top be a number 3. That means we are a #1 defensemen away from having a really good defense.

 

[obey86]

This is a very optimistic view. Cholo doesn't look like he has the tools to be a top pairing D guy. And Seider has never played on North American ice, form a league that has never been known to produce elite talent (Seidenberg, and Ehrhoff are the only two major players to come out of that league). The chances that they both hit as top guys is near 0. Though I am much more hopeful Seider will become a #2 defensive d-man than I am that Cholo becomes more than a #4 PMD.

Just because you are slotted on a #1 pairing does not mean anyone considers you to be a "top pairing guy." For example, Joel Edmunson was the most common partner for Alex Pietrangelo this season, and he's certainly not a "top pairing guy" in the way that the word is used around here.

Teams spread out their talent from line to line and plenty of teams don't even have two true top pairing defenders ----- even if Cholowski ends up the 4th best defenseman of our future top 4 on D, he could still very well be playing on the "top pairing" next to whoever is our #1, depending on handedness, how each player's varying skill sets mesh with each other, etc.

 

[newfy]

Not bad, but nothing in the game screams to me “6 overall”.

Wait and see I guess but there were only 2 other undrafted kids playing in that tournament and they went 1 and 2 and are forwards. The fact that he played well for a dman in that tournament but didnt do anything crazy is a pretty good sign. This is definitely going to be a guy that people watch for a few years to see what happens with him. Its pretty hard to gauge these late risers until they get some more game time in.

A lot of people are going off of lists made by scouting publications. But just an example of why to take these with a grain of salt. Pronman didnt ranked Stutzle (highly rated for 2020 draft) in his preliminary list because he hasnt seen him at all yet. Stutzle has played internationally in what I would consider 2 pretty major tourneys and he played junior in Mannheim where Seider was drafted from. Pronman is generally considered a pretty good prospect guy on here but he hasnt seen this kid at all. If he hasnt seen that kid at all in Manheim, how many times do you think he saw Seider as well?

Late riser who basically the entire wings org got eyes on before picking 6th overall but drafted out of a league/region that doesnt get scouted much (especially by media types vs teams). Theres also reports that at least 2 other teams were very interested in him in the top 10 so a couple other NHL front offices had him rated pretty highly.... This guy is the definiton of wait and see. At least one NHL team thought he was worthy of being picked 6th overall and another couple had him as a top 10 prospect but hes difficult to watch games of. Hopefully hes in GR next year (or the wings even) and we can all judge fairly.

I could see himb eing in Grand Rapids pretty easily. Hes huge and already used to playing against men

 

[Frk It]

even if Cholowski ends up the 4th best defenseman of our future top 4 on D, he could still very well be playing on the "top pairing" next to whoever is our #1, depending on handedness, how each player's varying skill sets mesh with each other, etc.

This was exactly my point. We are probably looking at having a top 4 by committee. We are not going to have a Lidstrom level guy where you can stick Ian White or whoever next to and he just makes them look 10x better than they are. But we can form a group that complements each other really well, moves the puck well, and is tough to play against. Kind of like what Carolina has assembled.

 

[muchbetterthanlada]

I've never seen Seider play and couldn't find any 'shift-by-shift' videos, so I had a look at the Germany vs Slovakia game from the Worlds and compiled his shifts into a vid for whoever is interested... It immediately got blocked on youtube, so streamable will have to do.

(#21, White)

 

[obey86]

This was exactly my point. We are probably looking at having a top 4 by committee. We are not going to have a Lidstrom level guy where you can stick Ian White or whoever next to and he just makes them look 10x better than they are. But we can form a group that complements each other really well, moves the puck well, and is tough to play against. Kind of like what Carolina has assembled.

Yep. Teams rarely load up their top pairing or their top line with all their best players ala Colorado last year. I don't buy into the "He's not good enough to play on that line!" He's (not talking about anyone specifically, just in general) not good enough to be the driver of a #1 line, but he's certainly good enough to be a complimentary/secondary player on a line anchored by someone else.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I've never seen Seider play and couldn't find any 'shift-by-shift' videos, so I had a look at the Germany vs Slovakia game from the Worlds and compiled his shifts into a vid for whoever is interested... It immediately got blocked on youtube, so streamable will have to do.

(#21, White)

Thank you so much. This is awesome... Not to be greedy, but if you decide to do this with any other Seider games, I'd watch them all.

 

[Retire91]

totally cool dude thanks!

Just so this isn't a lame nothing post I did a quick informal count. In Worlds I counted around 12 players under 20. And only three 18 year olds. I think that says a lot of what the management thinks. I didn't count Hughes that freak of nature lol

 

[Avery Rule]

Remember back when Brett Lebda was going to be the next number 1?

 

[Ezekial]

Remember back when Brett Lebda was going to be the next number 1?

No, I don't remember when undrafted FA Brett Lebda was gonna be a #1.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

No, I don't remember when undrafted FA Brett Lebda was gonna be a #1.

The only "next #1s" I remember were

Jiri Fischer before his heart betrayed him.
Jakub Kindl before we realized he played like a kitten.
Brendan Smith before we realized he dumb.
Ryan Sproul before we realized that he didn't know what defense was.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

This was exactly my point. We are probably looking at having a top 4 by committee. We are not going to have a Lidstrom level guy where you can stick Ian White or whoever next to and he just makes them look 10x better than they are. But we can form a group that complements each other really well, moves the puck well, and is tough to play against. Kind of like what Carolina has assembled.

I think we have to get to a point where we realize that having a guy like Lidstrom just isn't going to happen. D men like that almost literally don't exist in the current NHL. Even the best of the best have some flaw in their game. Subban, Karlsson, Weber, Suter, Doughty... All of them have some achilles heel. Nick Lidstrom was the unicorn of all unicorns and we need to not chase after him. That's why it's misguided to be overly wary of guys who have shown top pairing upside like Trouba or Subban. Perfect Humans don't grow in bunches.

 

[Steve Yzerlland]

The only "next #1s" I remember were

Jiri Fischer before his heart betrayed him.
Jakub Kindl before we realized he played like a kitten.
Brendan Smith before we realized he dumb.
Ryan Sproul before we realized that he didn't know what defense was.

This is true and depressingly hilarious. Besides Fischer of course.

 

[vladdy16]

It's not depressing. Cholowski, Seider and Hronek are clearly way better prospects than all those except Fischer.

21 and 17 did more in their half seasons as red wings than any of the other guys ever did.

Cholowski and Hronek are closer to Zetterberg and Datsyuk level finds than they are Jesse Wallin or Maxim Kuznetsov.

 

[ricky0034]

I think we have to get to a point where we realize that having a guy like Lidstrom just isn't going to happen. D men like that almost literally don't exist in the current NHL. Even the best of the best have some flaw in their game. Subban, Karlsson, Weber, Suter, Doughty... All of them have some achilles heel. Nick Lidstrom was the unicorn of all unicorns and we need to not chase after him. That's why it's misguided to be overly wary of guys who have shown top pairing upside like Trouba or Subban. Perfect Humans don't grow in bunches.

is there actually anyone anywhere seriously expecting that?

there's debate over where exactly in that 2-5 kinda range he falls but Lidstrom is pretty much universally regarded as a top 5 defenseman all time,this is going back like a hundred years

 

[ShanahanMan]

It's not depressing. Cholowski, Seider and Hronek are clearly way better prospects than all those except Fischer.

21 and 17 did more in their half seasons as red wings than any of the other guys ever did.

Cholowski and Hronek are closer to Zetterberg and Datsyuk level finds than they are Jesse Wallin or Maxim Kuznetsov.

What? Hank and Dats were late round gems. Cholo and Hronek were early picks. I’d say they’re right around their projection with Hronek a bit better than Cholo (consider Cholo was a 1st rounder).

 

[vladdy16]

What? Hank and Dats were late round gems. Cholo and Hronek were early picks. I’d say they’re right around their projection with Hronek a bit better than Cholo (consider Cholo was a 1st rounder).

Cholo and Hronek were picked in the same spot as Smith/Wallin/Kindl/Sproul etc

Compared to those guys, Cholowski and Hroneks impact on our future will be closer to 13 and 40 imo. They are going to help transform our d core into an era long strength imo.

 

[Winger98]

This is a very optimistic view. Cholo doesn't look like he has the tools to be a top pairing D guy. And Seider has never played on North American ice, form a league that has never been known to produce elite talent (Seidenberg, and Ehrhoff are the only two major players to come out of that league). The chances that they both hit as top guys is near 0. Though I am much more hopeful Seider will become a #2 defensive d-man than I am that Cholo becomes more than a #4 PMD.

I think it also depends what we're looking for from that pairing. If they can go out and give us 20+ minutes of hockey that tilts largely in our favor, and the 2nd pairing does the same thing, I think it can work. Assuming no one is a clear cut #1/Norris level player, we just can't have our pairings have big drop offs from one to the other. They all have to be good, though none of them need be great.

 

[ShanahanMan]

Cholo and Hronek were picked in the same spot as Smith/Wallin/Kindl/Sproul etc

Compared to those guys, Cholowski and Hroneks impact on our future will be closer to 13 and 40 imo. They are going to help transform our d core into an era long strength imo.

Okay, but those are two opposite extremes. Hall of famers and total 1st round busts. I think it will be more in the middle. Also, verdict is still wayyy out on Cholo.

 

[The Zermanator]

I think it also depends what we're looking for from that pairing. If they can go out and give us 20+ minutes of hockey that tilts largely in our favor, and the 2nd pairing does the same thing, I think it can work. Assuming no one is a clear cut #1/Norris level player, we just can't have our pairings have big drop offs from one to the other. They all have to be good, though none of them need be great.

I'm not convinced that's a feasible way to win. Every team that's won the Cup in recent memory has had at least 1 very clear cut #1 dman. The only possible exception would be Pittsburgh with Letang but they also have 2 all-time great centremen. Boston this season was close, but they also benefited from an all-time great goalie performance and some very elite 2-way forwards.

So until I see an example of a team composed of a bunch of very good but not elite players win a Cup by committee it really seems like building around a few vital pieces is the way to go.

edit: Since this is the Seider thread I should specify I don't share the more pessimistic opinions of him here. I think he's our first real shot at a #1 internally in a long time. If we're not going to be making the trades for a Trouba or Subban then he's our best hope.

 

[vladdy16]

Okay, but those are two opposite extremes. Hall of famers and total 1st round busts. I think it will be more in the middle. Also, verdict is still wayyy out on Cholo.

Right, and the whole point of my comment was that if we are going to compare 17 and 21 to Smith and Sproul, we may as well compare them to 13 and 40.

If you are open to the possibility that they might be out of the league in 3 years, you should also be open to the possibility that they might be all stars.

If we're talking evaluation/projection/opinion, the consensus here is unreasonably conservative when it comes to 17 and 21 imo.

 

[ricky0034]

i'd be a lot more sold on the whole committee on defense thing if the Wings best forward was someone better than Larkin

I don't think you can have both of those things and expect to be a good team

 

[Retire91]

But you gotta start somewhere, again people are not acknowledging how much trading and signing to maintain mediocrity cost this organization. Yzerman is starting with a handful or prospects and developing players and that is it. Holland only stopped trading picks for rentals like 2-3 seasons ago. Rock bottom was really what last season?

 

[Oddbob]

i'd be a lot more sold on the whole committee on defense thing if the Wings best forward was someone better than Larkin

I don't think you can have both of those things and expect to be a good team

Yeah I agree, Larkin is brutal!

 

[ricky0034]

Yeah I agree, Larkin is brutal!

yeah man 300th best player in the league at best

f*** off you know that isn't what I meant