6 in 5 Tracker

[ERYX]

Took some vacation time that involved very little access to devices and only cursory attention paid to the Jets ... don't have time to do the "full write up" but wanted to keep this thread going. The last two five game segments did a good job of demonstrating why this model "works" and why we shouldn't get too high or low.

Pts	gathered	needed
Last 5	2	6
Total	43	42

So that was a poor one and we depleted some of the points we'd accumulated above the 6 in 5 line. Only +1 after that rough patch. But then we ...

Pts	gathered	needed
Last 5	10	6
Total	53	48

So we bounced right back up to +5 with a solid four more points collected than needed in the last five.

Even though the West is "weak" we're 7th overall in the whole league with games in hand on many above us. 1 point behind Dallas with one game in hand, 3 points behind Vegas with two games in hand.

 

[BoneDocUK]

Took some vacation time that involved very little access to devices and only cursory attention paid to the Jets ... don't have time to do the "full write up" but wanted to keep this thread going. The last two five game segments did a good job of demonstrating why this model "works" and why we shouldn't get too high or low.

Pts	gathered	needed
Last 5	2	6
Total	43	42

So that was a poor one and we depleted some of the points we'd accumulated above the 6 in 5 line. Only +1 after that rough patch. But then we ...

Pts	gathered	needed
Last 5	10	6
Total	53	48

So we bounced right back up to +5 with a solid four more points collected than needed in the last five.

Even though the West is "weak" we're 7th overall in the whole league with games in hand on many above us. 1 point behind Dallas with one game in hand, 3 points behind Vegas with two games in hand.

This is great stuff! Thanks @ERYX for taking the time to keep this 6/5 counter up to date as a service to the board -- it's been a constant reference in seasons where we were in the playoff hunt, and is super useful as a sober measuring stick for where the team is / where it needs to be.

 

[ps241]

Took some vacation time that involved very little access to devices and only cursory attention paid to the Jets ... don't have time to do the "full write up" but wanted to keep this thread going. The last two five game segments did a good job of demonstrating why this model "works" and why we shouldn't get too high or low.

Pts	gathered	needed
Last 5	2	6
Total	43	42

So that was a poor one and we depleted some of the points we'd accumulated above the 6 in 5 line. Only +1 after that rough patch. But then we ...

Pts	gathered	needed
Last 5	10	6
Total	53	48

So we bounced right back up to +5 with a solid four more points collected than needed in the last five.

Even though the West is "weak" we're 7th overall in the whole league with games in hand on many above us. 1 point behind Dallas with one game in hand, 3 points behind Vegas with two games in hand.

I really enjoy this and think its as very meaningful. The good thing is we are back on pace after dipping, then serging, and working through a heavy injury stage. The other part of the story is is the longer this goes the less games there are to fall off the pace. We are now down to 42 games left in the season. Just like seasons in the past when we were chasing it I found it was always so tough to make up ground and get back to 6 in 5 I am sure the reverse is true to. At some point this is kind of who you are as a team.

Great news for us this season.

 

[ghyrti]

Last two teams hit 40GP last night. In addition to points in previous 10 GP, will include ranking change from game 30 for playoff teams. Not a lot of changes with 9 of the top 11 teams all getting 12-15 points.

Pacific
54 Vegas (13)
52 Seattle (15)
48 LA (14) - up from WC2

Central
53 Winnipeg (12)
52 Dallas (13)
48 Minnesota (12) - up from WC1

Wildcard
45 Calgary (13) - up from 9th
44 Edmonton (10) - down from P3

44 Nashville (14)
43 Colorado (7) - down from C3
41 St Louis (12)
37 Vancouver (8)
32 San Jose (9)
31 Arizona (6)
28 Anaheim (11)
26 Chicago (8)

Adding 538 sports end of season projections at game 40 (change from game 30 in brackets).

Pacific
Vegas - 104 (+1)
Seattle - 102 (+8)
LA - 98 (+5)

Central
Dallas - 105 (+3)
Winnipeg - 103
Minnesota - 100

Wildcard
Colorado - 96 (-10)
Calgary - 96 (+2)

Edmonton - 94 (-3)
St Louis - 92 (+1)
Nashville - 90 (+3)
Vancouver - 82 (-2)
Arizona - 70 (-5)
San Jose - 69
Anaheim - 63 (-1)
Chicago - 62

 

[ERYX]

Last two teams hit 40GP last night. In addition to points in previous 10 GP, will include ranking change from game 30 for playoff teams. Not a lot of changes with 9 of the top 11 teams all getting 12-15 points.

Pacific
54 Vegas (13)
52 Seattle (15)
48 LA (14) - up from WC2

Central
53 Winnipeg (12)
52 Dallas (13)
48 Minnesota (12) - up from WC1

Wildcard
45 Calgary (13) - up from 9th
44 Edmonton (10) - down from P3

44 Nashville (14)
43 Colorado (7) - down from C3
41 St Louis (12)
37 Vancouver (8)
32 San Jose (9)
31 Arizona (6)
28 Anaheim (11)
26 Chicago (8)

Adding 538 sports end of season projections at game 40 (change from game 30 in brackets).

Pacific
Vegas - 104 (+1)
Seattle - 102 (+8)
LA - 98 (+5)

Central
Dallas - 105 (+3)
Winnipeg - 103
Minnesota - 100

Wildcard
Colorado - 96 (-10)
Calgary - 96 (+2)

Edmonton - 94 (-3)
St Louis - 92 (+1)
Nashville - 90 (+3)
Vancouver - 82 (-2)
Arizona - 70 (-5)
San Jose - 69
Anaheim - 63 (-1)
Chicago - 62

Thanks for compiling this. Continues to look like the Jets are "for real" and this isn't just a mirage.

Also, I'm not going to lie ... I will enjoy it very much if this prediction is true and Edmonton ends up outside the playoffs.

 

[ghyrti]

Thanks for compiling this. Continues to look like the Jets are "for real" and this isn't just a mirage.

Also, I'm not going to lie ... I will enjoy it very much if this prediction is true and Edmonton ends up outside the playoffs.

And wouldn't Dallas/Winnipeg/Minnesota/Calgary be a great playoff bracket?

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

And wouldn't Dallas/Winnipeg/Minnesota/Calgary be a great playoff bracket?

To Quote Kevin Wildes on first things first:

"If the playoffs started today, which would be very weird, because it's January 13th, these would be the matchups"

 

[ghyrti]

Standings at 50. Points in previous 10 GP in brackets. Edmonton jumps from 9th in the west to 3rd in Pacific dropping the Flames out of the playoffs.

Pacific
63 Seattle (11)
61 Vegas (7)
60 Edmonton (16)

Central
65 Dallas (13)
63 Winnipeg (10)
58 Minnesota (10)

Wildcard
60 Los Angeles (12)
58 Colorado (15)

57 Calgary (12)
56 Nashville (12)
49 St Louis (8)
44 Vancouver (7)
39 San Jose (7)
38 Arizona (7)
37 Chicago (11)
37 Anaheim (9)


538 Sports end of season projections as of today. Change from Jan 13 in brackets.
Pacific
Edmonton - 101 (+7)
Las Vegas - 100 (-4)
Seattle - 98 (-4)

Central
Dallas - 104 (-1)
Colorado - 102 (+6)
Winnipeg - 101 (-2)

Wildcard
Los Angeles - 97 (-1)
Minnesota - 96 (-4)
Calgary - 95 (-1)
Nashville - 92 (+2)

 

[Zhamnov5GoalGame]

Standings at 50. Points in previous 10 GP in brackets. Edmonton jumps from 9th in the west to 3rd in Pacific dropping the Flames out of the playoffs.

Pacific
63 Seattle (11)
61 Vegas (7)
60 Edmonton (16)

Central
65 Dallas (13)
63 Winnipeg (10)
58 Minnesota (10)

Wildcard
60 Los Angeles (12)
58 Colorado (15)

57 Calgary (12)
56 Nashville (12)
49 St Louis (8)
44 Vancouver (7)
39 San Jose (7)
38 Arizona (7)
37 Chicago (11)
37 Anaheim (9)


538 Sports end of season projections as of today. Change from Jan 13 in brackets.
Pacific
Edmonton - 101 (+7)
Las Vegas - 100 (-4)
Seattle - 98 (-4)

Central
Dallas - 104 (-1)
Colorado - 102 (+6)
Winnipeg - 101 (-2)

Wildcard
Los Angeles - 97 (-1)
Minnesota - 96 (-4)
Calgary - 95 (-1)
Nashville - 92 (+2)

Well that prediction model outcome sucks. Hopefully the Jets can outpace Dal & Col the rest of the way and then figure out how to beat Minny in round 1.

 

[ghyrti]

Standings at 60. Points in previous 10 GP in brackets. Jets/Seattle the big losers in the past 10.

Pacific
76 - Vegas (15)
74 - Los Angeles (14)
72 - Edmonton (12)

Central
75 - Dallas (10)
73 - Colorado (15)
72 - Minnesota (14)

Wildcard
72 - Seattle (9)
71 - Winnipeg (8)

68 - Nashville (12)
66 - Calgary (9)
57 - St Louis (8)
53 - Vancouver (9)
51 - Arizona (13)
48 - San Jose (9)
47 - Chicago (10)
45 - Anaheim (8)

538 Sports end of season projections as of today. Change from Feb 12 in brackets.
Pacific
Las Vegas - 103 (+3)
Los Angeles - 101 (+4)
Seattle - 99 (+1)

Central
Colorado - 104 (+2)
Dallas - 104 (-)
Minnesota - 101 (+5)

Wildcard
Edmonton - 98 (-3)
Winnipeg - 96 (-5)
Nashville - 92 (-)
Calgary - 90 (-5)

 

[ghyrti]

Last one of these posts with the standings at 70. Points in previous 10 GP in brackets. Only Chicago and San Jose worse than Winnipeg that stretch. Note that if Winnipeg would have played even with Arizona over the past 20 games they would be battling for the western conference #1 seed and not the last wild card spot.

Pacific
92 - Vegas (16)
90 - Los Angeles (16)
86 - Edmonton (14)

Central
89 - Dallas (14)
88 - Colorado (15)
88 - Minnesota (16)

Wildcard
85 - Seattle (13)
81 - Winnipeg (10)

80 - Nashville (12)
77 - Calgary (11)
68 - St Louis (11)
67 - Vancouver (14)
65 - Arizona (14)
(e) 56 - Anaheim (11)
(e) 54 - Chicago (7)
(e) 52 - San Jose (4)

538 Sports end of season projections as of today. Change from Mar 5 in brackets.
Pacific
Las Vegas - 108 (+5)
Los Angeles - 105 (+4)
Edmonton - 103 (+5)

Central
Colorado - 105 (+1)
Dallas - 104 (-)
Minnesota - 103 (+2)

Wildcard
Seattle - 99 (-)
Winnipeg - 96 (-)
Nashville - 92 (-)
Calgary - 91 (+1)

 

[ghyrti]

Now that everyone in the west has hit the 20 game mark, posting standings at 20 games. Tiebreakers considered for playoff positioning only.

Pacific
30 - Vegas
29 - Los Angeles
27 - Vancouver

Central
28 - Colorado
28 - Dallas
26 - Winnipeg

Wildcard
23 - St Louis
20 - Nashville

20 - Arizona
19 - Calgary
19 - Seattle
18 - Anaheim
16 - Minnesota
15 - Edmonton
14 - Chicago
8 - San Jose

ABC shut down the sports department at 538polls. Haven't really looked to see what else is out there for end of season prediction models but sportsclubstats NHL page is back being updated after a couple of years so going to use that model (Playoff % as of Nov 29 in brackets).

Pacific
Los Angeles (99.6)
Vancouver (99.1)
Las Vegas (96.3)

Central
Colorado (97.3)
Dallas (93.2)
Winnipeg (86.8)

Wildcard
Nashville (68.8)
Arizona (52.7)
St Louis (45.6)
Calgary (24.5)
Edmonton (13.1)
Seattle (10.8)
Minnesota (6.3)
Anaheim (3.1)
Chicago (3.0)
San Jose (0.0)

 

[ghyrti]

Updated to 30 game mark...
Sportsclubstats playoff chances in brackets

Pacific
45 - Vegas (98.3)
42 - Los Angeles (99.8)
41 - Vancouver (99.9)

Central
40 - Dallas (97.1)
39 - Winnipeg (99.0)
38 - Colorado (94.9)

Wildcard
34 - Nashville (51.6)
32 - Arizona (51.9)

31 - St Louis (22.1)
30 - Minnesota (33.3)
29 - Edmonton (31.9)
27 - Calgary (14.0)
25 - Seattle (6.0)
22 - Anaheim (0.2)
21 - San Jose (0.0)
19 - Chicago (0.0)

 

[Whileee]

Updated to 30 game mark...
Sportsclubstats playoff chances in brackets

Pacific
45 - Vegas (98.3)
42 - Los Angeles (99.8)
41 - Vancouver (99.9)

Central
40 - Dallas (97.1)
39 - Winnipeg (99.0)
38 - Colorado (94.9)

Wildcard
34 - Nashville (51.6)
32 - Arizona (51.9)

31 - St Louis (22.1)
30 - Minnesota (33.3)
29 - Edmonton (31.9)
27 - Calgary (14.0)
25 - Seattle (6.0)
22 - Anaheim (0.2)
21 - San Jose (0.0)
19 - Chicago (0.0)

One factor in the playoff odds is remaining strength of schedule. Jets have one of the easiest remaining schedules, based on current team standings.

That might actually underestimate the ease, since a lot of the lower ranked teams will go into full tank mode in the second half.
NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

 

[jokesondee]

One factor in the playoff odds is remaining strength of schedule. Jets have one of the easiest remaining schedules, based on current team standings.

That might actually underestimate the ease, since a lot of the lower ranked teams will go into full tank mode in the second half.
NHL Strength of Schedule Rankings

This kinda scares me though. The Jets seem to always play down to their opponents. Drives me nuts. The Anaheim, San Jose, and Canadians games come to mind.

 

[KingBogo]

This kinda scares me though. The Jets seem to always play down to their opponents. Drives me nuts. The Anaheim, San Jose, and Canadians games come to mind.

All fan bases say this. The truth is the worst teams win approximately 1/3 of their games and the best teams lose about 1/3 and the distribution Of those games seems almost random. Just go through any week of games and there will be lots of upsets.

 

[KingBogo]

Just to take the discussion do the Jets play down to their opposition, I ran the numbers on all their regulation wins, OT wins and any SO wins and also ran the numbers on all their regulation, OT and SO loses.

The average points % of teams we have won against is 0,549% (90.04 points over a season).

The average points % of the teams we have lost against is .589% (96.60 points over a season).

Taking out subjective opinion we have tended to win more against weaker teams, and have lost more against stronger teams.

 

[surixon]

Just to take the discussion do the Jets play down to their opposition, I ran the numbers on all their regulation wins, OT wins and any SO wins and also ran the numbers on all their regulation, OT and SO loses.

The average points % of teams we have won against is 0,549% (90.04 points over a season).

The average points % of the teams we have lost against is .589% (96.60 points over a season).

Taking out subjective opinion we have tended to win more against weaker teams, and have lost more against stronger teams.

Which I'm sure is pretty standard across the board.

 

[Krauser]

Top 10 NHL teams on Dec 31st by winning percentage in games decided in regulation
(regulation wins vs regulation losses, no OT or shootout results)

.720 Bruins 18-7
.692 Kings 18-8
.690 Jets 20-9, Rangers 20-9
.688 Canucks 22-10
.667 Avalanche 22-11
.625 Panthers 20-12, Stars 15-9
.615 Golden Knights 16-10
.565 Islanders 13-10

Last year, the Jets winning percentage in regulation on Dec 31st was .552 (16-13). They had 7 OT wins by that point in the year (7-1 in OT, no shootouts). This year, they're 2-3 in OT plus 0-1 in shootouts, but their record is a full 4 games better in regulation. That's a big improvement.

The Leafs dropoff is also notable by this metric. Last year on Dec 31st, they were at .714 in regulation (20-8). This year, they're an even .500 (10-10) -- 14 of their 34 games so far have gone to OT (7-7 including 4-1 in shootouts).

 

[Krauser]

After putting up 10 points in their last 5 games, Jets are now 8.4 points ahead of the "6 in 5" pace. They're actually slightly ahead of a "7 in 5" pace (which would be 53.2 points in 38 games -- Jets have 54 points).

Jets already have 23 regulation wins, more than the Leafs (11) and Wild (11) combined.

 

[Buffdog]

How many points in 5 games (based on historical average) to win the central?

 

[ghyrti]

Updated to 40 game mark...
Sportsclubstats playoff chances in brackets.

Pacific
55 - Vancouver (100)
51 - Vegas (89.2)
50 - LA (95.5)

Central
58 - Winnipeg (100)
53 - Colorado (99.0)
53 - Dallas (98.7)

Wildcard
49 - Edmonton (90.3)
45 - Nashville (36.1)

43 - Seattle (25.1)
43 - St Louis (9.3)
42 - Arizona (20.4)
39 - Calgary (34.6)
38 - Minnesota (1.7)
29 - Anaheim (0)
26 - Chicago (0)
21 - San Jose (0)

Some interesting notes on those simulations is that the most likely scenario has the Jets finishing with 115 points and winning the central as the 2 seed behind Vancouver. The most likely top wild card team in those simulations is Vegas.

 

[WolfHouse]

Updated to 40 game mark...
Sportsclubstats playoff chances in brackets.

Pacific
55 - Vancouver (100)
51 - Vegas (89.2)
50 - LA (95.5)

Central
58 - Winnipeg (100)
53 - Colorado (99.0)
53 - Dallas (98.7)

Wildcard
49 - Edmonton (90.3)
45 - Nashville (36.1)

43 - Seattle (25.1)
43 - St Louis (9.3)
42 - Arizona (20.4)
39 - Calgary (34.6)
38 - Minnesota (1.7)
29 - Anaheim (0)
26 - Chicago (0)
21 - San Jose (0)

Some interesting notes on those simulations is that the most likely scenario has the Jets finishing with 115 points and winning the central as the 2 seed behind Vancouver. The most likely top wild card team in those simulations is Vegas.

Gonna be a tough playoff match up against Minnesota hahah

 

[Krauser]

Jets already have 23 regulation wins, more than the Leafs (11) and Wild (11) combined.

11 days later, the Jets now have 27 regulation wins, more than the Leafs (13) and Wild (12) combined.

With 8 points in their last 5 games, they've moved even further ahead of a "7 in 5" pace (which is basically a 115 point pace over 82 games).

 

[ghyrti]

Took a while for Edmonton to finally play their 50th game...

Pacific
73 - Vancouver
64 - Vegas
63 - Edmonton

Central
68 - Colorado
68 - Dallas
67 - Winnipeg

Wildcard
58 - LA
56 - St Louis

54 - Nashville
52 - Seattle
51 - Calgary
50 - Arizona
49 - Minnesota
38 - Anaheim
32 - San Jose
30 - Chicago

After last nights games the most probable playoff matchups (with end of season point totals) according to sportsclubstats...

Vancouver (120) vs St Louis (93)
Edmonton (104) vs Vegas (104)

Dallas (111) vs LA (99)
Winnipeg (109) vs Colorado (104)