Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick, Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP UPDATED: Signs 3 Year ELC 3/11/20

[Herby]

I know they need a bigger fish, but that's not the point of what I'm saying. I'm talking about value. To RV's credit, he is putting up elite 5v5 offensive metrics - top 3% in the league. You also have to consider age, salary, and term, which are all working more in his favor vs JT Miller. Regardless, yes, Kings need a true first line talent.

It's not a "bit dishonest" at all. Turcotte is indeed a top 5 draft pick. We can debate how much he has depreciated back and forth all day, but the fact of the matter is that a #1 pick + a young RHD who is already playing 20+ minutes on a playoff team (with good offensive analytics and actual production) + a top 5 pick from 2 drafts ago is a much pricier package than what wingers were going for last season.

Which is fine, if you're getting someone who is worth it.

A winger who just scored 30 goals for the first time in his life who, again, has 1 year left til UFA, who is likely to decline as early as next season, is not the guy to give up this type of package for. That's the point. He is not the guy to overpay for.

This is also a player that has scored at a 100 point pace this season and scored at an 85 point pace during 19-20. If you take his 3 years in Vancouver in his age 26/27, 27/28 and 28/29 seasons he has put up 30G, 50A, 88Pts over a full 82. He isn't small so the weirdos obsessed with that shouldn't complain, he isn't soft so the weirdos obsessed with that shouldn't complain either. I do agree it would be more ideal to get a Laine type as the Kings lack finishers, but we aren't getting Laine for anything close to this package. Again if we can get FF or Gaudreau that is more optimal, but we are the Kings, when have we won a FA battle?

I think you are waiting on a unicorn.

Still lose me on how draft status has anything to do with value. I am guessing you think Spence is a much less valuable asset than I probably do?

Am I crazy to place more value on Spence than I do Turcotte and Vilardi?

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

This is also a player that has scored at a 100 point pace this season and scored at an 85 point pace during 19-20. If you take his 3 years in Vancouver in his age 26/27, 27/28 and 28/29 seasons he has put up 30G, 50A, 88Pts over a full 82. He isn't small so the weirdos obsessed with that shouldn't complain, he isn't soft so the weirdos obsessed with that shouldn't complain either. I do agree it would be more ideal to get a Laine type as the Kings lack finishers, but we aren't getting Laine for anything close to this package. Again if we can get FF or Gaudreau that is more optimal, but we are the Kings, when have we won a FA battle?

I think you are waiting on a unicorn.

Still lose me on how draft status has anything to do with value. I am guessing you think Spence is a much less valuable asset than I probably do?

Am I crazy to place more value on Spence than I do Turcotte and Vilardi?

I think if you can get Laine, you do it, 2 1sts, Vilardi, and Durzi....done like dinner....

 

[Herby]

I think if you can get Laine, you do it, 2 1sts, Vilardi, and Durzi....done like dinner....

What piece here moves the needle for Columbus though?

The Kings pick this year is around 18 in a meh draft.

The Kings pick next year with Laine and Doughty is probably 20< in a very good draft.

Vilardi, I just think people here are just beyond wrong on what his value is. But maybe we will see this summer. He isn't a kid anymore. The waiver rules are designed for that reason. Players around his age cease to be prospects. Would Casey Mittlestadt, Michael Rasmussen, Lias Anderson, Filip Zadina, Nolan Patrick or Cody Glass move the needle if you were trading a 24 year old point-per-game player with all-world skill? I'm guessing the answer for most everyone here is a "no", so why would Vilardi?

Durzi, he has been pretty good for the Kings and probably has ok value but he is what he is.

edit: sorry Columbus

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Turcotte's value as of today is likely on par with Lias Andersson, at most.

 

[Herby]

If we’re gonna be getting bent over for talent from another team I’d prefer Forsberg over Miller

Forsberg is an UFA.

We either get him for nothing or don't get him at all.

 

[GoldenBearHockey]

What piece here moves the needle for Columbus though?

The Kings pick this year is around 18 in a meh draft.

The Kings pick next year with Laine and Doughty is probably 20< in a very good draft.

Vilardi, I just think people here are just beyond wrong on what his value is. But maybe we will see this summer. He isn't a kid anymore. The waiver rules are designed for that reason. Players around his age cease to be prospects. Would Casey Mittlestadt, Michael Rasmussen, Lias Anderson, Filip Zadina, Nolan Patrick or Cody Glass move the needle if you were trading a 24 year old point-per-game player with all-world skill? I'm guessing the answer for most everyone here is a "no", so why would Vilardi?

Durzi, he has been pretty good for the Kings and probably has ok value but he is what he is.

edit: sorry Columbus

Depends on where they see themselves, 2 1sts, Turcotte, Walker and Kupari, the pieces are intermitten, but CBS isn't competing with Laine and Werenenski, and that is where they are at now.....it just depends on if they see it or not.

 

[Sol]

Forsberg is an UFA.

We either get him for nothing or don't get him at all.

I keep forgetting that.

Pay him whatever he wants.

 

[BringTheReign]

So I read through a lot of this thread, and it was interesting to read from June 2019 to the current some of the takes. There were some that were very good, and some (myself included) that aged about as well as Tara Reid.

A lot of lineup projections had Kopitar as the 3C right now playing behind Vilardi and Turcotte. Three years later and Kopitar is still the 1C and both those guys have switched to wingers and are not NHL players.

Someone correctly pointed out that if the Kings were to draft Byfield or Stutzle in the next draft it could lead to Vilardi and Turcotte being wingers (good call)

Someone posted a Top 20 prospects list that didn’t include Jordan Spence (the most successful Blake draft pick IMO) and had Durzi outside the Top 15. Three years later both are playing a key role on the defense as the team nears the playoffs and none of the players from that Top 5 list project to be in the Kings lineup when the playoffs start. (Vilardi, Turcotte, Bjornfot, Kupari, JAD). Not that anyone should have had Spence or Durzi that high, but just shows you how fast things change with NHL prospects. I think a fact that gets lost on this board to often. If today someone asked could only keep Turcotte or Spence who would you take? And that is two players taken #5 and #100 only 3 years ago.

I had forgotten just how overwhelming the feelings were on this board that he should have been signed after his freshman year. Very few took the other side on that debate, I’d say 80-90% of the posts wanted him in the AHL at 19 and out of Wisconsin. A lot of talk about both him and Caufield and whether they would both leave/stay etc. And it’s interesting, both wanted to leave school, one team obliged and offered a contract and one didn’t. In the two years since one player has won a Hobey Baker, lead his team to a conference championship in the NCAA then that same season played a key role in winning a conference championship in the NHL and has now established himself as a dangerous scorer at the NHL level and the other has gone in a completely different direction. It’s hard to look at this evidence and say that decision had drastically negative long-term ramifications for Turcotte. But it’s really not fair to criticize Blake for the development decisions with a lot of these prospects when they were largely cheered on here. I’d have to check the QB thread but I am pretty sure the attitude to having him in the AHL last year was positive.

Everyone thought Wisconsin was a dumpster fire and wanted him out of a losing atmosphere. Wisconsin ended up going 20-10-1 and winning the Big Ten while the Reign went 17-19-4 and early the next season the coach who was supposed to help with his development mutually parted ways with the team. Turcotte would have obviously gained way more playing a large role on a Big Ten champion team than a smaller one on a bad AHL team. Again, why it’s more important to trust historical results and paths of development than to make poor decisions that go against the norms.

Somehow the discussion on Alex Turcotte morphed into one on fish tacos. Three years later I still say blackened mahi-mahi is way better than beer battered whatever.

In closing, I just hate when the Kings make bad development decisions on players. If a player disappoints because an evaluation is off (and I think with Turcotte everyone was a bit off on his ceiling) If anyone has been a fan of this team for a long time we have seen so many of them with top prospects. Berg was handled poorly, Storr was handled poorly, Jokinen was handled poorly, Moller was handled poorly, Vilardi was handled poorly, Brown was handled poorly (thankfully came out ok because the lockout forced him to the AHL), they wanted to rush Kopitar but luckily Anze’s own people made sure he spent his D+1 in Sweden getting better and bigger.

I'll quickly agree with everything here, but I just wanted to add that Turcotte's ceiling wasn't just wrongly evaluated by the Kings. A majority of the public scouting sphere had him going in the top 5 if not at #3 to the Hawks. Then again, Dach has hit a bit of a rut too, but it's always funny to look back on.

Also, that Wisconsin team his freshman year was absolutely listless. I watched 7-8 games and it was comical how poorly they played and seemed to be coached. I'd reckon that was a huge reason why so many people here wanted him to sign. We'll never know, but maybe in a universe where he signed and C19 didn't happen it was the right call regardless (though your point about historical paths is a sound one).

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

No one wants to get rid of Turcotte for “anything we can”. But its a fact that if the Kings want to accelerate their march back to “contender“ status, they need a bonafide scorer and it’ll cost one or two of our “prized” prospects.

Understand the hesitance with Miller since he’s about to enter the twilight zone of his 30s but JT has a lot to offer not just scoring and it’s clear he’s quietly maturing to become a leader. Ass backwards is say you trade for Gallagher.

Herby would have traded him the moment he stepped on Wisconsin ice if he could have for a sandwich and a lottery scratcher.

it's not about his ability; it's about his age, UFA status, and opportunity cost.

Odds are he's getting worse from here, not better, especially given this year's increased scoring; Odds are he's looking to cash out as a UFA next year since this is his first shot at the big bucks and chance to decide where he goes; and if you're giving up a blue chip prospect and other premium assets, they have to be for things coming back that will be here for longer than essentially a rental. You don't get a second chance at trading those guys. It just lines up to be a nightmare whether he signs or not.

 

[tbrown33]

I think you are waiting on a unicorn.

Still lose me on how draft status has anything to do with value. I am guessing you think Spence is a much less valuable asset than I probably do?

Am I crazy to place more value on Spence than I do Turcotte and Vilardi?

I am not waiting on a unicorn. I just don't want to trade 3 good assets for JT Miller, and I have very good reasons, which I've covered ad nauseum.

I like Spence a lot. More than Durzi. My favorite RHD prospect after Clarke. Not sure why you would guess that, unless you are just trying to create strawmen. Doesn't have anything to do with Turcotte being a top 5 draft pick two drafts ago. I haven't even given my opinion on Turcotte in this thread. It also has nothing to do with me not wanting to trade those assets for a player I don't think makes sense for the Kings.

 

[Herby]

Turcotte's value as of today is likely on par with Lias Andersson, at most.

Lias Anderson #7 overall 2017
D1, D2, D3 years since drafted

NHL totals: 56 GP, 3G, 5A, 8 Pts
AHL totals: 74GP, 15G, 24A, 39 Pts
WJC: 14GP, 9G, 1A, 10 Pts

Alex Turcotte #5 overall 2019
D1, D2, D3 years since drafted

NHL totals: 8GP, 0G, 0A, 0 Pts
AHL totals: 58GP, 12G, 27A, 39 Pts
WJC: 12GP, 3G, 7A, 10 Pts

Close, but Turcotte is probably better offensively and is more gritty.

Lias was traded to the Kings for the 60th overall pick in the draft 3 years later (2020). I'd probably want a 2nd from a pretty bad team for Turcotte (top 40 pickj). I think I'd keep him before trading him for the 60th this year.

 

[BigKing]

He's basically hit all of the "cons" of his scouting profile: is he injury prone and does he have that top-end #1C offensive ceiling?

So far, it looks like the answers are yes and no to those questions. He's had a blah year at Wisconsin, a shortened D + 2 development year and now a mostly lost D+3 season. Meanwhile, three guys taken after him in that draft--including a 4th rounder--are on the NHL roster with all three of those guys arguably being more impactful at the AHL level as well.

It looks like a total whiff of a pick at this point. Blake was never going to be able to keep all of these prospects. This year was supposed to be a big year as far as identifying which prospects to hang on to and which ones to use for a known quantity or two. Turcotte and Vilardi look like guys to dangle but their values are highly questionable. Vilardi is waiver eligible next season so he's gone or--at worst---a healthy scratch in LA. Probably best to hope Turcotte can rehab some value but shit...the guy misses two weeks at a time after just falling down on a face-off.

 

[Herby]

Herby would have traded him the moment he stepped on Wisconsin ice if he could have for a sandwich and a lottery scratcher.

it's not about his ability; it's about his age, UFA status, and opportunity cost.

Odds are he's getting worse from here, not better, especially given this year's increased scoring; Odds are he's looking to cash out as a UFA next year since this is his first shot at the big bucks and chance to decide where he goes; and if you're giving up a blue chip prospect and other premium assets, they have to be for things coming back that will be here for longer than essentially a rental. You don't get a second chance at trading those guys. It just lines up to be a nightmare whether he signs or not.

The bolded part is true, and you say it as an insult but wouldn't it ave been the right move in hindsight? Yes, I would have traded him immediately after seeing him play in the NCAA because he was never going to live up to where he was taken in the draft but still had value around the league where someone would have given the Kings something good. Now here we are 30 months later and the Kings wouldn't get close to that type of concern. I acknowledge tbrown bringing up the "Top 5 Pick" thing in saying he still has value, but value based on where someone was drafted depreciates significantly with each passing year, and as we saw with Lias 3 years later its not really a factor at that point.

Was I wrong on my complaints and concerns, I see you finally acknowledged earlier in this thread today that scoring upside is a concern, guess we aren't disputing that anymore?

I am not waiting on a unicorn. I just don't want to trade 3 good assets for JT Miller, and I have very good reasons, which I've covered ad nauseum.

I like Spence a lot. More than Durzi. My favorite RHD prospect after Clarke. Not sure why you would guess that, unless you are just trying to create strawmen. Doesn't have anything to do with Turcotte being a top 5 draft pick two drafts ago. I haven't even given my opinion on Turcotte in this thread. It also has nothing to do with me not wanting to trade those assets for a player I don't think makes sense for the Kings.

It's not a strawman. If you still place value on Turcotte as a Top 5 pick three years later wouldn't it be fair to also place skepticism on Spence due to being the #100 pick in the same draft? If we trust the rankings on Turcotte why aren't we doing the same on Spence?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

The bolded part is true, and you say it as an insult but wouldn't it ave been the right move in hindsight? Yes, I would have traded him immediately after seeing him play in the NCAA because he was never going to live up to where he was taken in the draft but still had value around the league where someone would have given the Kings something good. Now here we are 30 months later and the Kings wouldn't get close to that type of concern. I acknowledge tbrown bringing up the "Top 5 Pick" thing in saying he still has value, but value based on where someone was drafted depreciates significantly with each passing year, and as we saw with Lias 3 years later its not really a factor at that point.

Was I wrong on my complaints and concerns, I see you finally acknowledged earlier in this thread today that scoring upside is a concern, guess we aren't disputing that anymore?

Congratulations, Herby, our lottery prospect isn't panning out as hoped. Bet that feels great.

No, my concerns aren't about his actual ability as yours are, but the repeated injuries slowing his development. A lot harder to reach a scoring ceiling that way. But I have zero doubt he's going to be a very effective NHLer where you're convinced he'll be lucky to tie anyone's skates in the league.

And I definitely think it's a bad idea to trade him for a near-UFA near 30. That's where the trade comment comes from.

 

[ru4reals]

I'm not willing to give up on Turcs. He's still my favorite prospect. I've paid for AHLtv just to watch him QB and AK34 play. I've watched all of his games since coming to the Reign and a few Badger games. I believe he has the skills to make it one day. But man it's been disheartening reading all the posts about Turcotte. Why?Because It's becoming more and more true by the day. I hope you guys are all wrong. Prove us all wrong kid!!!

 

[Herby]

Congratulations, Herby, our lottery prospect isn't panning out as hoped. Bet that feels great.

No, my concerns aren't about his actual ability as yours are, but the repeated injuries slowing his development. A lot harder to reach a scoring ceiling that way. But I have zero doubt he's going to be a very effective NHLer where you're convinced he'll be lucky to tie anyone's skates in the league.

And I definitely think it's a bad idea to trade him for a near-UFA near 30. That's where the trade comment comes from.

See you think I root against the prospect, that is what is funny. People like you and Kinghock hype up prospects no matter what, say a player is the next Toews, make the excuses when they don't produce and then call people with more realistic expectations and evaluations "haters" or "living rent free". And then when those people are proven right you can just conveniently say they aren't true fans of the team by saying "bet it feels great".

And so the implication that now is that I am happy that the Kings likely whiffed on a Top 5 pick? A top 5 pick that I was happy with at the time of the pick and a top 5 pick that I drove an hour each way to see play 6 times as a freshman. But yes, I am happy with the results, because you know I've been posting on Kings forums online for 20+ years because I hate the team and root against them. I should have seen him play at UW and ignored the red flags, ignored how he looked compared to previous first line players in the same conference, ignored the fact that his teammate taken 10 picks later was just a worlds better prospect and instead just said like Baghdad Bob that "everything is ok", because that is what "real fans" would do. Right? Sorry I've said it a million times, I evaluate Kings prospects I watch the same way IU evaluate Blue Jackets, Golden Knights, Sabres, Canadiens etc. If that makes me not a true fan of the team so be it.

When did I ever say he wasn't going to be an NHL player? Seriously cite one example of me saying he wasn't going to be an NHL player when we were having our debates on him while at UW and I will Venmo $1000 to any charity you want. You are just making up non-sense again. Now suddenly challenging your awful analysis that he was going to be Jonathan Toews or Mike Richards or that "his offense is what you expect from a top-5 pick" makes me say he isn't going to be an NHL'er?. I have said for the past 2 years that he was going to be a Cogliano-Copp type player, are those guys not worthy of tying anyones skates? My only gripe with Turcotte is where he was taken, a player like him should go 15-25, not top 5.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

See you think I root against the prospect, that is what is funny. People like you and Kinghock hype up prospects no matter what, say a player is the next Toews, make the excuses when they don't produce and then call people with more realistic expectations and evaluations "haters" or "living rent free". And then when those people are proven right you can just conveniently say they aren't true fans of the team.

And so the implication that now is that I am happy that the Kings likely whiffed on a Top 5 pick? A top 5 pick that I was happy with at the time of the pick and a top 5 pick that I drove an hour each way to see play 6 times as a freshman. But yes, I am happy with the results, because you know I've been posting on Kings forums online for 20+ years because I hate the team and root against them.

When did I ever say he wasn't going to be an NHL player? Seriously cite one example of me saying he wasn't going to be an NHL player when we were having our debates on him while at UW and I will Venmo $1000 to any charity you want. You are just making up non-sense again. Now suddenly challenging your awful analysis that he was going to be Jonathan Toews or Mike Richards or that "his offense is what you expect from a top-5 pick" makes me say he isn't going to be an NHL'er?. I have said for the past 2 years that he was going to be a Cogliano-Copp type player, are those guys not worthy of tying anyones skates? My only gripe with Turcotte is where he was taken, a player like him should go 15-25, not top 5.

Holy shit dude.

Get some fresh air. I was half joking with the trade comment, didn't know it was going to trigger 3 years of repressed memories. You're the one who crafted the response seething with smug "see I was right" tripe, twice over now, instead of addressing the actual substance, the idea that it's a dumb idea to trade him for a guy approaching 30.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I think we'd all be rejoicing if Turcotte produced and became an NHL regular like Cogliano or Copp, but even that is a stretch.

The injury concerns that have plagued him for the past couple of seasons have me inclined in thinking he's going to wind up more like another once highly touted Kings prospect who was marred by injuries.

 

[KINGS17]

Players pop up on the trade market every year that no one is expecting. Best to keep your powder dry for when a good opportunity arises.

Arvidsson is probably close to as productive now as you could hope Miller would be in his 30's. And Arvy's cost was a 2nd and 3rd.

I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish by adding Miller. It doesn't make them a contender.

I agree. I would keep the powder dry. In a matter of just six months the Kings acquired a 26-year old Mike Richards, and a 27-year old Jeff Carter for a team that was much closer to winning a cup. I am not up for going after Miller, who will likely be pushing 32 or 33 years of age, before the Kings are hopefully sniffing around a cup again.

I have seen an approach that would make this kind of deal for Miller fail far too often.

 

[Herby]

Holy shit dude.

Get some fresh air. I was half joking with the trade comment, didn't know it was going to trigger 3 years of repressed memories. You're the one who crafted the response seething with smug "see I was right" tripe, twice over now, instead of addressing the actual substance, the idea that it's a dumb idea to trade him for a guy approaching 30.

Yeah, I was right on the offensive upside. So what, you win some and you lose some, I think Luke Hughes will be better than Owen Power, I might be wrong on that. I'm not right on everything and never claim to be. I was just legit surprised you brought up offensive upside because up until now you have always insisted it wasn't a concern.

And yes, I do think your comments towards me way earlier in this and other threads, calling me a hater for having an opinion on a prospect were out of line at the time and I think implying that I am somehow happy that Turcotte has disappointed three years in is also out of line. Turcotte being the Kings pick over some others makes the team worse, and you seem to think I am happy about that, I just don't understand that thinking. We are all Kings fans here.

Like I said in the other post, I am lucky enough to see a lot of prospects play in person, prospects from many different NHL teams. I enjoy talking about those players on this site and give my opinions, no matter what team they are on.

Also, how do you address the lack of skill?

Most here didn't want to trade for 23 year old Laine, he was to soft, or 25 year old Eichel who was injury prone, or 29 year old Miller who is to old. Some here said they wouldn't take Mitch Marner for free because he is soft. Others have said they want nothing to do with Gaudreau as an UFA because he's to small. With Filip Forsberg it's his shooting % is not sustainable. There is always something with someone, that is why I brought up the unicorn thing.

Are we just going to not address this again this summer?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yeah, I was right on the offensive upside. So what, you win some and you lose some, I think Luke Hughes will be better than Owen Power, I might be wrong on that. I'm not right on everything and never claim to be. I was just legit surprised you brought up offensive upside because up until now you have always insisted it wasn't a concern.

And yes, I do think your comments towards me way earlier in this and other threads, calling me a hater for having an opinion on a prospect were out of line at the time and I think implying that I am somehow happy that Turcotte has disappointed three years in is also out of line. Turcotte being the Kings pick over some others makes the team worse, and you seem to think I am happy about that, I just don't understand that thinking. We are all Kings fans here.

Like I said in the other post, I am lucky enough to see a lot of prospects play in person, prospects from many different NHL teams. I enjoy talking about those players on this site and give my opinions, no matter what team they are on.

Also, how do you address the lack of skill?

Most here didn't want to trade for 23 year old Laine, he was to soft, or 25 year old Eichel who was injury prone, or 29 year old Miller who is to old. Some here said they wouldn't take Mitch Marner for free because he is soft. Others have said they want nothing to do with Gaudreau as an UFA because he's to small. With Filip Forsberg it's his shooting % is not sustainable. There is always something with someone, that is why I brought up the unicorn thing.

Are we just going to not address this again this summer?

I'm not ready to close the book on Turcotte until he's actually getting NHL time or just injury retires, I find it a little shortsighted frankly. I disagree with you on his skill level and that in itself is fine, I feel like he's the type of brain to be better with better players, like Moverare, and has the kind of motor high skill players dont' usually have, where he'll create chances and just rack up assists of a Kaliyev like he used to with Caufield and basically anyone he played with at the NDTP.

I apologized for that three (two?) years ago, Herby. I'm not going to do it again just because you brought it up and are still apparently angry about it.

I'm happy for you that you get to see so many of the NCAA kids in person and I value your opinion on them, but I find you speak in absolutes a lot. That's fine, it just means we're going to butt heads because I'm a stubborn prick.

Re: the lack of skill it has to be addressed, but I dont' think people are out of line for being choosy about it. Laine is a prick and we got to see it first hand with CBJ, he's a finishing piece imo, not a building block. He's gonna Gaborik some team in the next few years and they'll be happy about it, but in the meantime, the dude is just a mopey bitch. Eichel is a curse, and he has done next to nothing in Vegas, I'm THRILLED to not have given up assets for him. I don't see how you can not see Miller's age as a concern, sorry. I haven't seen the Marner comments but his salary is prohibitive yet I'm sure the Kings could make it work, I'd take him over Forsberg at the same price absolutely, especially given age, and Forsberg, Miller, AND Gaudreau are going to get overpaid ot the max thanks to this season's increased scoring. I dont' think we have a shot at Johnny Hockey at all frankly, taht has Bruins or NJ written allover it. Forsberg maybe, but like Miller, it's bad timing with respect to age.

In short, I really do feel if we're going to be trading young assets, they have to be for a 25-or-younger, preferably RFA player. Like, they were high on Flyers, I could see them trying something for a Farabee/Konecny, Sanheim/Provorov package. Sure neither of those guys are Gaudreau, but I'm not sure we're ready to throw around 10 milliion again quite yet (maybe TO crashes and burns and we can finally do that Marner-for-Doughty deal eh).

 

[YAYSAY]

I think we'd all be rejoicing if Turcotte produced and became an NHL regular like Cogliano or Copp, but even that is a stretch.

The injury concerns that have plagued him for the past couple of seasons have me inclined in thinking he's going to wind up more like another once highly touted Kings prospect who was marred by injuries.

Bring back those jerseys

 

[Herby]

I'm not ready to close the book on Turcotte until he's actually getting NHL time or just injury retires, I find it a little shortsighted frankly. I disagree with you on his skill level and that in itself is fine, I feel like he's the type of brain to be better with better players, like Moverare, and has the kind of motor high skill players dont' usually have, where he'll create chances and just rack up assists of a Kaliyev like he used to with Caufield and basically anyone he played with at the NDTP.

I apologized for that three (two?) years ago, Herby. I'm not going to do it again just because you brought it up and are still apparently angry about it.

I'm happy for you that you get to see so many of the NCAA kids in person and I value your opinion on them, but I find you speak in absolutes a lot. That's fine, it just means we're going to butt heads because I'm a stubborn prick.

Re: the lack of skill it has to be addressed, but I dont' think people are out of line for being choosy about it. Laine is a prick and we got to see it first hand with CBJ, he's a finishing piece imo, not a building block. He's gonna Gaborik some team in the next few years and they'll be happy about it, but in the meantime, the dude is just a mopey bitch. Eichel is a curse, and he has done next to nothing in Vegas, I'm THRILLED to not have given up assets for him. I don't see how you can not see Miller's age as a concern, sorry. I haven't seen the Marner comments but his salary is prohibitive yet I'm sure the Kings could make it work, I'd take him over Forsberg at the same price absolutely, especially given age, and Forsberg, Miller, AND Gaudreau are going to get overpaid ot the max thanks to this season's increased scoring. I dont' think we have a shot at Johnny Hockey at all frankly, taht has Bruins or NJ written allover it. Forsberg maybe, but like Miller, it's bad timing with respect to age.

In short, I really do feel if we're going to be trading young assets, they have to be for a 25-or-younger, preferably RFA player. Like, they were high on Flyers, I could see them trying something for a Farabee/Konecny, Sanheim/Provorov package. Sure neither of those guys are Gaudreau, but I'm not sure we're ready to throw around 10 milliion again quite yet (maybe TO crashes and burns and we can finally do that Marner-for-Doughty deal eh).

Well thanks for the response. Yes you did apologize for calling me a "Turcotte Hater" but here we go again with the comments now that it "feels great" to me to be right on Turcotte as being a more middle 6 guy than Jonathan Toews. I just think we go down a stupid path when we start saying people are rooting against players or aren't real fans. This board has enough people who continually do that in every other thread (you know who I am talking about) and I don't think more of that is needed.

The problem is a lot of you continually shoot down all these offers how do you address the holes? Everyone said the holes would be filled by the kids, but they haven't been. The refusal to accept any of these trades over the years would have been validated had Turcotte been Zegras/Caufield/Boldy or Vilardi had been Suzuki/Norris/Thomas, but they aren't. Turcotte has been a big disappointment for what you expect from that slot and Vilardi is squarely in bust territory. I won't call Turcotte a bust, never have and hopefully never will but Vilardi is really close to officially being a bust, this years camp is Gabe's last stand with the Kings.

I still don't see how we address the lack of high-end pieces do to poor draft results without swinging a big trade. UFA has just been such a whiff for the Kings for so long and evaluating and developing forwards just flat out sucks (lets call a spade a spade). Your Philadelphia trades aren't awful, but it's just adding more contact hitters when the Kings need a homerun hitter. The Miller trade adds that kind of player, a guy who over the last 3 seasons has played at an 88 point pace, including 100 this year, a player with decent size, decent grit and two-way play and a player who has averaged 79 games played a year the last 7 years**AND** I get to keep QB, Kaliyev and Clarke? I am legit shocked so many people wouldn't do this deal.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Well thanks for the response. Yes you did apologize for calling me a "Turcotte Hater" but here we go again with the comments now that it "feels great" to me to be right on Turcotte as being a more middle 6 guy than Jonathan Toews. I just think we go down a stupid path when we start saying people are rooting against players or aren't real fans. This board has enough people who continually do that in every other thread (you know who I am talking about) and I don't think more of that is needed.

The problem is a lot of you continually shoot down all these offers how do you address the holes? Everyone said the holes would be filled by the kids, but they haven't been. The refusal to accept any of these trades over the years would have been validated had Turcotte been Zegras/Caufield/Boldy or Vilardi had been Suzuki/Norris/Thomas, but they aren't. Turcotte has been a big disappointment for what you expect from that slot and Vilardi is squarely in bust territory. I won't call Turcotte a bust, never have and hopefully never will but Vilardi is really close to officially being a bust, this years camp is Gabe's last stand with the Kings.

I still don't see how we address the lack of high-end pieces do to poor draft results without swinging a big trade. UFA has just been such a whiff for the Kings for so long and evaluating and developing forwards just flat out sucks (lets call a spade a spade). Your Philadelphia trades aren't awful, but it's just adding more contact hitters when the Kings need a homerun hitter. The Miller trade adds that kind of player, a guy who over the last 3 seasons has played at an 88 point pace, including 100 this year, a player with decent size, decent grit and two-way play and a player who has averaged 79 games played a year the last 7 years**AND** I get to keep QB, Kaliyev and Clarke? I am legit shocked so many people wouldn't do this deal.

I think you're probably right to some degree that we're not going to find the 'perfect' player and that they're likely to come with some hitch, ie Miller's age...I just think that if we trade these pieces for another big piece they're going to have to come with SOME sort of team control, IE RFA years/salary, or we're just spinning our wheels, frankly. Yet, as you point out, those 'home runs' are hard to find in that range, or would be unavailable for the most part.

JT Miller is a great fit in a vacuum but I think there are just too many concerns there between price, age, and UFA status.

 

[BigKing]

@Herby @Raccoon Jesus
The vast majority of posters fall in love with prospects: that goes for this entire website and not just the Kings forum.

The truth is that most of them are like a car: it will never be worth as much as the purchase price once you drive it off the lot and many of these prospects won't be worth as much the further away you get from the draft.

The higher the pick, the higher the hopes and the longer the torch is carried. When that gets coupled with the common phenomenon of trade proposals that feature giving away spare parts for legit assets in return, you see a lot of pushback on trading guys like Vilardi or Turcotte with the legit asset coming back receiving negative critiques of his game while the struggling prospect gets the rose colored glasses.

It's easy for us to say what we think should happen as we all have lifetime contracts as armchair GMs on HF but that isn't the case for an NHL GM. While I agree that Miller is probably not the guy to target due to age/contract, I disagree with the notion to continue to hold all these guys to see what happens.

I likened the players to stocks in an earlier Turcotte discussion and said his stock has never been as high as draft night and that is completely true. Spence was mentioned earlier in this thread and he's an example of someone whose stock has never been higher but, of course, if Blake whiffed on him then he is only whiffing on a 4th round pick. Turcotte and Vilardi stock had a high purchase price and have only been negative returns and Blake is going to need to figure out if he should cash out into a safer stock and if the rest of the prospect portfolio returns allow for it.

If he doesn't, he could wind up holding these stocks until they are basically worthless. Lombardi did the same with Hickey but the greatness of Doughty, the awesome Martinez pick (95th OA just like Spence), Voynov and the Muzzin signing made the Hickey miss irrelevant. If Clarke is a stud, Blake will be pretty set on defense. Byfield being a stud could make missing on Vilardi and Turcotte irrelevant but you can't just let them depreciate into nothing like Hickey.

You generally have to give to get but it is up to Blake to know better than another team's GM what the projection is for Kings prospects. That's when you get something like O'Sullivan for Williams.