Prospect Info: 5th Overall Pick, Alex Turcotte, C, USNTDP UPDATED: Signs 3 Year ELC 3/11/20
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The issue is not Durzi or Roy,
The issue is that we don't trade for JT Miller at all
ScoreZeGoals
Boooorrrrriiiinnnnng
- Jun 29, 2010
- 17,662
- 7,679
Miller's age and needing a big new contract makes it far from a no brainer
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Yes, coming from the genius who refuses to call Vilardi or Turcotte even disappointments for not being NHL caliber players in their D+5 and D+2 picks, yup they are both right on the correct path to development, got it. And also the who was laughed off the main board for saying Quinton Byfield is a more valuable asset than Quinn Hughes. Speaking of a lack of brain cells, your takes are consistently among the worst on the board.
@johnjm22 , why could the Kings not make the contract work?
They lose Brown and Quick before the extension kicks in, the replacement value for those two guys is probably about $5 million where as they are making around $12m. You'd have only one year of Kopitar/Doughty/Miller on expensive deals before Anze's contract ends. If the best case scenario happens and Byfield, Kaliyev and Spence all become stars their contracts would end the same year as Kopitar's and his $10m could be more evenly spread out to those players in that best case scenario. The Kings do not project to be in any kind of cap hell anytime in the near future. They would have plenty of cap cushion. Who are you concerned about losing due to cap issues should the Kings trade for and extend JT Miller? Can you identify one player?
How else do you figure to address the scoring concerns? Do you really think it's going to come internally based on thee current results?
Are you concerned with what they are giving up? A likely middle six winger and a 3rd pairing defenseman, I know trading the first is a bit scary but the Kings would be a very good team next season adding Miller and returning Doughty, the odds of the Kings having a Sharks/Stutzle situation are extremely small.
ScoreZeGoals
Boooorrrrriiiinnnnng
- Jun 29, 2010
- 17,662
- 7,679
Trading for a guy exiting his prime and then giving him a big contract coming off a career outlier season is exactly what the Kings should not be doing. The Kings need to address scoring, but Miller isn't the guy
Herby
How could Blake have known?
So I read through a lot of this thread, and it was interesting to read from June 2019 to the current some of the takes. There were some that were very good, and some (myself included) that aged about as well as Tara Reid.
A lot of lineup projections had Kopitar as the 3C right now playing behind Vilardi and Turcotte. Three years later and Kopitar is still the 1C and both those guys have switched to wingers and are not NHL players.
Someone correctly pointed out that if the Kings were to draft Byfield or Stutzle in the next draft it could lead to Vilardi and Turcotte being wingers (good call)
Someone posted a Top 20 prospects list that didn’t include Jordan Spence (the most successful Blake draft pick IMO) and had Durzi outside the Top 15. Three years later both are playing a key role on the defense as the team nears the playoffs and none of the players from that Top 5 list project to be in the Kings lineup when the playoffs start. (Vilardi, Turcotte, Bjornfot, Kupari, JAD). Not that anyone should have had Spence or Durzi that high, but just shows you how fast things change with NHL prospects. I think a fact that gets lost on this board to often. If today someone asked could only keep Turcotte or Spence who would you take? And that is two players taken #5 and #100 only 3 years ago.
I had forgotten just how overwhelming the feelings were on this board that he should have been signed after his freshman year. Very few took the other side on that debate, I’d say 80-90% of the posts wanted him in the AHL at 19 and out of Wisconsin. A lot of talk about both him and Caufield and whether they would both leave/stay etc. And it’s interesting, both wanted to leave school, one team obliged and offered a contract and one didn’t. In the two years since one player has won a Hobey Baker, lead his team to a conference championship in the NCAA then that same season played a key role in winning a conference championship in the NHL and has now established himself as a dangerous scorer at the NHL level and the other has gone in a completely different direction. It’s hard to look at this evidence and say that decision had drastically negative long-term ramifications for Turcotte. But it’s really not fair to criticize Blake for the development decisions with a lot of these prospects when they were largely cheered on here. I’d have to check the QB thread but I am pretty sure the attitude to having him in the AHL last year was positive.
Everyone thought Wisconsin was a dumpster fire and wanted him out of a losing atmosphere. Wisconsin ended up going 20-10-1 and winning the Big Ten while the Reign went 17-19-4 and early the next season the coach who was supposed to help with his development mutually parted ways with the team. Turcotte would have obviously gained way more playing a large role on a Big Ten champion team than a smaller one on a bad AHL team. Again, why it’s more important to trust historical results and paths of development than to make poor decisions that go against the norms.
Somehow the discussion on Alex Turcotte morphed into one on fish tacos. Three years later I still say blackened mahi-mahi is way better than beer battered whatever.
In closing, I just hate when the Kings make bad development decisions on players. If a player disappoints because an evaluation is off (and I think with Turcotte everyone was a bit off on his ceiling) If anyone has been a fan of this team for a long time we have seen so many of them with top prospects. Berg was handled poorly, Storr was handled poorly, Jokinen was handled poorly, Moller was handled poorly, Vilardi was handled poorly, Brown was handled poorly (thankfully came out ok because the lockout forced him to the AHL), they wanted to rush Kopitar but luckily Anze’s own people made sure he spent his D+1 in Sweden getting better and bigger.
A lot of lineup projections had Kopitar as the 3C right now playing behind Vilardi and Turcotte. Three years later and Kopitar is still the 1C and both those guys have switched to wingers and are not NHL players.
Someone correctly pointed out that if the Kings were to draft Byfield or Stutzle in the next draft it could lead to Vilardi and Turcotte being wingers (good call)
Someone posted a Top 20 prospects list that didn’t include Jordan Spence (the most successful Blake draft pick IMO) and had Durzi outside the Top 15. Three years later both are playing a key role on the defense as the team nears the playoffs and none of the players from that Top 5 list project to be in the Kings lineup when the playoffs start. (Vilardi, Turcotte, Bjornfot, Kupari, JAD). Not that anyone should have had Spence or Durzi that high, but just shows you how fast things change with NHL prospects. I think a fact that gets lost on this board to often. If today someone asked could only keep Turcotte or Spence who would you take? And that is two players taken #5 and #100 only 3 years ago.
I had forgotten just how overwhelming the feelings were on this board that he should have been signed after his freshman year. Very few took the other side on that debate, I’d say 80-90% of the posts wanted him in the AHL at 19 and out of Wisconsin. A lot of talk about both him and Caufield and whether they would both leave/stay etc. And it’s interesting, both wanted to leave school, one team obliged and offered a contract and one didn’t. In the two years since one player has won a Hobey Baker, lead his team to a conference championship in the NCAA then that same season played a key role in winning a conference championship in the NHL and has now established himself as a dangerous scorer at the NHL level and the other has gone in a completely different direction. It’s hard to look at this evidence and say that decision had drastically negative long-term ramifications for Turcotte. But it’s really not fair to criticize Blake for the development decisions with a lot of these prospects when they were largely cheered on here. I’d have to check the QB thread but I am pretty sure the attitude to having him in the AHL last year was positive.
Everyone thought Wisconsin was a dumpster fire and wanted him out of a losing atmosphere. Wisconsin ended up going 20-10-1 and winning the Big Ten while the Reign went 17-19-4 and early the next season the coach who was supposed to help with his development mutually parted ways with the team. Turcotte would have obviously gained way more playing a large role on a Big Ten champion team than a smaller one on a bad AHL team. Again, why it’s more important to trust historical results and paths of development than to make poor decisions that go against the norms.
Somehow the discussion on Alex Turcotte morphed into one on fish tacos. Three years later I still say blackened mahi-mahi is way better than beer battered whatever.
In closing, I just hate when the Kings make bad development decisions on players. If a player disappoints because an evaluation is off (and I think with Turcotte everyone was a bit off on his ceiling) If anyone has been a fan of this team for a long time we have seen so many of them with top prospects. Berg was handled poorly, Storr was handled poorly, Jokinen was handled poorly, Moller was handled poorly, Vilardi was handled poorly, Brown was handled poorly (thankfully came out ok because the lockout forced him to the AHL), they wanted to rush Kopitar but luckily Anze’s own people made sure he spent his D+1 in Sweden getting better and bigger.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Who is then?
The Kings had chances to address scoring at the draft (particularly 2017 and 2019) and ended up drafting the wrong players. Sorry, I know people will get mad but that is just a fact, we are in this spot offensively mostly because players expected to be 1st or 2nd line players by now aren't even NHL caliber players. We aren't in it with one of Thomas, Norris, Suzuki, Zegras, Caufield, Boldy etc. Do you believe the scoring issues will be addressed internally?
But we are a competitive team now, the chances of drafting a player who will fix our scoring with picks beyond the Top 15 are not very good.
You want to go down the free agency path? How has that worked out historically for LA? I mean sure if you can sign Gaudreau without giving up assets you do it, but LA has never really been able to get free agents for a variety of reasons the two biggest being travel and taxes, which aren't going away. And Gaudreau is only 6 months younger than Miller.
So if the draft is unlikely and free agency is a long shot then what path is there besides trading?
And since you oppose trading for and paying for a 29 year old I am assuming that you wish for someone younger? Ok that is fine, lets say hypothetically Kyle Connor goes to Winnipeg and says he wants out, younger and on a cheaper contract, great. But are you prepared to trade QB and Clarke for him? Maybe a different Winnipeg player, maybe PLD is put on the market, would you move QB for him? That is what people are going to ask for players under 26-27 years old (should ones even be on the market this summer). The Kings are not getting young 1st line forwards for pieces like Turcotte, Vilardi, Durzi, Kupari.
I am genuinely curious how you fix this teams woeful scoring by not
1. Bringing in older players and paying them
2. Trading away key pieces of the future like QB and Clarke.
Is there a particular player you have in mind?
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
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Again, he'd be 31 in the first year of his new contract.
The Kings could make it work, as in fit it under the cap, but that doesn't make it a good idea.
Miller in his early to mid 30's is probably a declining 20ish goal scorer. That doesn't really do much to help the Kings scoring issues.
I don't have any problem giving up that package, or even adding to it, but if the Kings make a trade it needs to be for a player in a better situation.
Cant speak for others but you can maybe pry Laine from Columbus with a 1st, Roy/Iafallo, and one or two of Turcotte/Vilardi/Durzi/Kupari.
I think Forsberg Fiala and Laine are good fits. Cheaper options like Debrusk, Konecny, Olofssen, Kapanen without giving up as much in hopes they can put it together here.
Or you can maybe take a chance on a swap like Vilardi for guys like Kravtsov, Zadina, add a bit for Necas and hope to hit on a scorer that hasnt found their groove in their current situation.
Paying a high price for Miller isnt the only option.
Sol
Smile
- Jun 30, 2017
- 25,052
- 21,320
If we’re gonna be getting bent over for talent from another team I’d prefer Forsberg over Miller
Herby
How could Blake have known?
I know you said you would add, but you aren't getting a player under 27 years old for anything close to that package. The package is one of the key reasons why the trade is a no-brainer. A declining asset, a surplus RHD and what is likely a late 1st for a 100 point player.
If you were to try and trade for Connor you are looking at probably adding QB to that package to make Winnipeg do it. He's probably not going to be available anyways.
Maybe Barzal is available this summer, again he is going to cost QB+ and the Kings need a finisher more than a playmaker anyways (although I wouldn't be against having him).
Unless you can convince Gaudreau to sign with LA I just don't see how you address the massive hole without having some potential issues.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
Laine has been addressed a ton here, and most of this board has wanted absolutely nothing to do with him for some reason. Columbus might trade him but the return is going to be a lot. Are you prepared to send QB to the Jackets as part of the deal if they do move him?
DeBrincat might be available according to reports in Chicago, but again, the return is going to involve QB. The Kings don't have the blue chip pieces beyond him to move the needle. Don't believe me, go over to the Hawks board and see how receptive they are to a Cat deal that involves the Kings secondary assets.
Forsberg and Fiala are UFA. Hey just like Gaudreau if we can get one of them for nothing as an UFA sure, lets do it. But historically that has never worked out for LA. What if you pass up on hypothetical deals before the draft for Miller, DCat and Laine in the hopes of getting Forsberg, Fiala or Gaudreau and then strike out. We are back at square one with the lack of offense.
Trading one disappointment for another in a change of scenery trade is a possibility and might be tried with Vilardi and Turcotte this summer, it has been tried before but most of the time both the traded players continue to be disappointments. I wouldn't be very optimistic that Filip Zadina or Vitaly Kravstov are going to do much to move the needle for the Kings offense. More than likely just another Lias type.
The realistic options are just very limited, I just don't see how you turn down that offer if it were hypothetically proposed.
I think as of now both Turcotte and Durzi are long-shots to regulars next season.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
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Players pop up on the trade market every year that no one is expecting. Best to keep your powder dry for when a good opportunity arises.
Arvidsson is probably close to as productive now as you could hope Miller would be in his 30's. And Arvy's cost was a 2nd and 3rd.
I'm not sure what you hope to accomplish by adding Miller. It doesn't make them a contender.
You can do a package like that for an elite winger, but JT Miller isn't the right forward to target...at all. Not a "no brainer" at all - he's the exact kind of guy you don't trade a package like that for considering contract status and age.
Buchnevich is an elite 26 year old winger who went for Sammy Blais and a 2nd rounder.
Buchnevich is an elite 26 year old winger who went for Sammy Blais and a 2nd rounder.
johnjm22
Pseudo Intellectual
- Aug 2, 2005
- 21,372
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A lot of it depends on what you think Miller is going to be in his 30's.
Is he going to be Joe Pavelski? If so, it's worth it to make this trade and extend him.
But players like Pavelski are outliers. We all know most forwards peak around 27-29, and start to decline from there. So if you sign Miller to a long term deal, you're making a decision with a low probability of a good outcome; it could work out well, but it probably won't.
Is he going to be Joe Pavelski? If so, it's worth it to make this trade and extend him.
But players like Pavelski are outliers. We all know most forwards peak around 27-29, and start to decline from there. So if you sign Miller to a long term deal, you're making a decision with a low probability of a good outcome; it could work out well, but it probably won't.
Yea this is all true. I think Laine could be had without giving up Byfield if first rounders, a good roster player, and multiple good prospects are offered. For me personally the only one of the players your talking about Id consider moving Byfield for is Barzal. He plays really well in the playoffs and would fit well with Kaliyev and Kempe.
The only reason I could see them not offering up Turcotte soon is if they are willing to wait it out until Kopitars contract is up to run Danault Byfield Turcotte as the centers in the top 9. Durzi I can see sticking around if him, Spence, or Roy move to the left side and they dont bring anyone in. In this case Walker would be traded and Moverare is the 7th dman.
Anderson-Doughty
Durzi-Roy
Bjornfot-Spence
Moverare
Or something like that. Though selling high on him could be an option also.
The Kings have so many assets to do as they please and it could really turn the team into a powerhouse if they play their cards right.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
You're expecting the Kings to duplicate one of the worst trades in the last couple of years? Props to St. Louis but trades that lopsided aren't common.
Also, who is the right player to target? Every time it is suggested the Kings trade for a player it is always shot down here because people didn't want to trade young assets that have since then greatly depreciated in value. The Kings probably could have had Laine for Vilardi, Turcotte and a 1st, but had it been proposed at the time it would have been universally shot down.
I don't think anyone wants to trade QB as of now (unless a legit star under 25 was coming back). But if you bring in the unicorn people are going to want that is likely going to be the cost.
Miller just turned 29, he is under contract next season in his age 29 year. Offer him a 5 year deal that covers his age 30/31/32/33/34 seasons. Yes the age 33 and 34 seasons may not return optimal value, but so what, that is the same case with Danault and no one complains about that because he has been useful this season. And is the case with most guys you wish to sign, if you sign Gaudreau for 6 years the last 2 may not be great either, just like with Kopitar and with Doughty, its just a fact of life for everyone.
Lt Dan
F*** your ice cream!
No, I'm not expecting them to duplicate that trade, but that was the market price. It's not exactly an outlier - Arvidsson was had for around slightly less value. With a first rounder, Durzi (offensive RHD with value, irrelevant that he is a surplus to us), and Turcotte (top 5 pick, depreciating or not)...you better be getting better value than a guy approaching 30 with 1 year left on his deal who has scored 30 goals one time in his entire career. Would be a classic Kings mistake that Rob Blake has given no indication that he is interested in making. I would not want to sign this player through his year 34 season at likely 7-9mill/season.
Right player to target is exactly who Blake has been saying is the type of player he'd trade for - a player who can help now and years to come. JT Miller is approaching 30 and UFA status. Lots of options at varying price points they could explore in free agency and via trade.
DoktorJeep
Luc and Rob are a waste of time and money.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
I know some of us are in a hurry to get rid of Turcotte for anything we can, but trading assets for a scorer entering his 30s is absolutely ass backwards, no matter who that scorer is.
Herby
How could Blake have known?
I love VA, but the Kings need to get a bigger fish either through trade, FA or the draft than VA. The Kings really don't have any first line players on the roster and that has to be addressed with the way the game is trending.
Turcotte being a #5 overall pick three years ago has little to do with his current value now as an AHL left-wing at age 21. Look at it this way, what would you offer to Chicago for Kirby Dach (who himself might be traded this summer). It certainly wouldn't be anything of similar value to a #3 overall pick, and that is completely fair because like Turcotte he has been a huge disappointment relative to the rest of his draft class. He is not completely worthless but if I were making an offer for Dach I would offer this years first, the value of Turcotte probably falls slightly less than that. So it's a bit dishonest to say "we are trading a #5 overall pick" just like it would be ridiculous for the Kings to trade Jordan Spence for #100 overall value or Kaliyev for 2nd round value. Three years is a long time in the hockey prospect world.
I know they need a bigger fish, but that's not the point of what I'm saying. I'm talking about value. To RV's credit, he is putting up elite 5v5 offensive metrics - top 3% in the league. You also have to consider age, salary, and term, which are all working more in his favor vs JT Miller. Regardless, yes, Kings need a true first line talent.
It's not a "bit dishonest" at all. Turcotte is indeed a top 5 draft pick. We can debate how much he has depreciated back and forth all day, but the fact of the matter is that a #1 pick + a young RHD who is already playing 20+ minutes on a playoff team (with good offensive analytics and actual production) + a top 5 pick from 2 drafts ago is a much pricier package than what wingers were going for last season.
Which is fine, if you're getting someone who is worth it.
A winger who just scored 30 goals for the first time in his life who, again, has 1 year left til UFA, who is likely to decline as early as next season, is not the guy to give up this type of package for. That's the point. He is not the guy to overpay for.
If you are going to trade assets......first, you have to target teams that need them, that are close to rebuilding, or are rebuilding, so possible teams, Toronto, St Louis, Boston, Pittsburgh, Washington, or possible teams that want to retool, Nashville, Dallas, Winnipeg, NYI, then, Bufffalo, Philly, Detroit, Ottawa etc,
Then you have to target players for me, 26 or under....and no, they won't come cheap, and there isn't a lot out there, going through the list, Thompson, Oloffson, Tuch, Debrincat, Hintz, Robertson, Bertuzzi, Barzal, Konecky, Farabee, Buchnevich, Marner, Nylander, Ehelrs, Connor,
And out of that list, maybe what, 5 maybe somewhat might be available, but you don't know if you don't do the work, so you contact them, and every single GM says no.....it is what it is, you either move on to older players, or FA etc,
But at this point, nothing is off the table, except Byflied, and Clarke..... they want Durzi, Vilardi, and Turcotte, plus 22 1st and 231st for Debrincat, sure, maybe get another body or pick thrown in etc,
It will take an overpayment to get what we need, simple as that, it's just a matter of how much and who for....and finding a team willing to do it, I see Konecky as available, Debrincat as available, Oloffsson, Bertuzzi, maybe Barzal, those would be the "realistic" ones in this type of scenario
Then you have to target players for me, 26 or under....and no, they won't come cheap, and there isn't a lot out there, going through the list, Thompson, Oloffson, Tuch, Debrincat, Hintz, Robertson, Bertuzzi, Barzal, Konecky, Farabee, Buchnevich, Marner, Nylander, Ehelrs, Connor,
And out of that list, maybe what, 5 maybe somewhat might be available, but you don't know if you don't do the work, so you contact them, and every single GM says no.....it is what it is, you either move on to older players, or FA etc,
But at this point, nothing is off the table, except Byflied, and Clarke..... they want Durzi, Vilardi, and Turcotte, plus 22 1st and 231st for Debrincat, sure, maybe get another body or pick thrown in etc,
It will take an overpayment to get what we need, simple as that, it's just a matter of how much and who for....and finding a team willing to do it, I see Konecky as available, Debrincat as available, Oloffsson, Bertuzzi, maybe Barzal, those would be the "realistic" ones in this type of scenario
TruKingFan
Two-Time Cup Winner
No one wants to get rid of Turcotte for “anything we can”. But its a fact that if the Kings want to accelerate their march back to “contender“ status, they need a bonafide scorer and it’ll cost one or two of our “prized” prospects.
Understand the hesitance with Miller since he’s about to enter the twilight zone of his 30s but JT has a lot to offer not just scoring and it’s clear he’s quietly maturing to become a leader. Ass backwards is say you trade for Gallagher.
