I think this is very good value for Casey. Absolutely would've gambled on him in this spot, and even a little earlier. I had him ranked 34.
I find that he's one of those prospects that there's no way of having a good idea how his career will turn out. The draft is considered a crapshoot, and Casey is someone who epitomizes that. I've watched him play as much as any player in this draft probably or close to it, and I still have no clue what to think of him.
The one thing I am pretty confident about his his skating. He skates very well. Incredible change of direction. Great skater in all directions. Can pivot easily with no difficulty. Has good, not great, speed for his size. He doesn't have Luke or Jack type of speed, but it's pretty good for an undersized player.
The other parts of his game, I have my guesses, but I'd be lying if I said I have any idea. He came into the NTDP with a big offensive reputation as a potential offensive superstar. While his offensive game was good, it never looked elite. It always looked pretty good. You could see him being a guy that scores points in the NHL. He's a good facilitator, he has an underrated shot, and he has above-average puck skills, but Hutson was the defenseman that showed that highly skilled offensive ability from the back-end, and probably also Chesley is also a better offensive player. I do think he'll be a PP guy in the NHL, if he makes it, but I'm not 100% convinced he makes it a regular. The other area of his game that had a great reputation and I saw some really nice plays, but never thought it looked consistently great was his hockey sense. Some of his decisions, his patience, some of the plays he'd see, it'd be really high level and the type of plays that only the guys with the very good hockey sense make. But it wasn't consistent. I have no clue what to think about his hockey-sense. Could end up elite. Could end up average.
I find him pretty underrated defensively actually. His defensive game was a lot better than I thought it'd be coming into the NTDP. It's funny how he had this big offensive reputation, and I found that his offense and defensive abilities were much closer than the reputation. Saying that, he's still 5'10 and leans more towards a puck-moving/offensive type, so there's a real question of can he be any better than average defensively in the NHL.
I guess the big question becomes what is his role. There is a lot about Casey's game that you could project as being very good. He's a very good skater. He has offensive ability, and he's underrated defensively. But you can also turn that around, and say his offensive ability isn't good enough for what it'd need to be, and it's very hard for him to be anything other than a below-average defensive player, given his size. Wouldn't surprise me if he's like a Ryan Ellis type. I see how that comes together. I also see how it comes together that he plays 150 NHL games, and doesn't have a foothold in the league.
The other question is how good he actually is. I don't remember very many games at the NTDP where I said he was outplaying the other defensemen. I thought the fourth round pick for you guys Leddy probably was the better player over the course of two years than Casey. Casey's game was always about potential and some nice plays he'd make, but he never happened to make that game to game impact where he was one of the best players.
He may end up being one of those players where you want to like his game because its the type of player that is exciting to watch, but doesn't add up at the end of a game and a season to a productive player. It's a good gamble though, but I warn that Casey is the epitome of boom-bust.