Prospect Info: 33rd overall Roby Jarventie LW FIN

[SpezDispenser]

I really thought this guy would be in the Chiasson mold (big winger who can score, but relies on others to create for him) but his start to the season has been nothing short of phenomenal. Seems to have more of a toolbox than I was giving him credit for. It's fun to watch him put up big numbers across the pond, but I'll be really interested to see him coming over to NA and see where he's at compared to the teams collection of young wingers.

It's his release too, wow. Chiasson never had a release period, let alone that kind of snipe!

 

[SensFactor]

Jarventie is having a great start no doubt. I will be comparing his development against Peterka who was my pick at 33rd OA.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Why go through this trouble comparing apples to oranges? All these guys played different leagues in D and/or D1. There's a reason why Jarventie went second round and these guys went at the absolute top.

Why not compare him to Teraveinen instead? They played in same leagues at the same ages, both had late birthdays, and were drafted near each other. Still a very favorable comparison and you don't need to do any contortions or hypotheticals about birthdays. All that's missing is the world junior comparison.

It isn't an apples to oranges comparison. All players listed played in Liiga. Using draft year or the year after the draft is still a reasonably close comparison. The point is to compare Jarventie with the best Finnish players in recent years to see how they performed in Liiga in a similar age range. This kind of approach is just a heuristic; it is a way to try to guess upside.

So far Jarventie is producing at a roughly equivalent (and in some cases superior) rate to Rantenen, Laine, Barkov and Kakko in their draft year. Jarventie is producing at this rate in his D+1 season but he has a late birthday so you can calibrate that any way you like.

For Roope Hintz I used his D+2 season because of how well Jarventie is producing. Hintz was drafted in 2015 in the 2nd round. Here are his stats after being drafted:
2015-2016: 33 GP 8 G 12 A 20 PTS
2016-2017: 44 GP 19 G 11 A 30 PTS

Based on Jarventie's current production he is on track to not only outperform Hintz in terms of production in his D+1 season but also in his D+2 season.

 

[JD1]

It isn't an apples to oranges comparison. All players listed played in Liiga. Using draft year or the year after the draft is still a reasonably close comparison. The point is to compare Jarventie with the best Finnish players in recent years to see how they performed in Liiga in a similar age range. This kind of approach is just a heuristic; it is a way to try to guess upside.

So far Jarventie is producing at a roughly equivalent (and in some cases superior) rate to Rantenen, Laine, Barkov and Kakko in their draft year. Jarventie is producing at this rate in his D+1 season but he has a late birthday so you can calibrate that any way you like.

For Roope Hintz I used his D+2 season because of how well Jarventie is producing. Hintz was drafted in 2015 in the 2nd round. Here are his stats after being drafted:
2015-2016: 33 GP 8 G 12 A 20 PTS
2016-2017: 44 GP 19 G 11 A 30 PTS

Based on Jarventie's current production he is on track to not only outperform Hintz in terms of production in his D+1 season but also in his D+2 season.

Your comparisons hit the mark for me and provide insight. Keep up the good work

 

[Xspyrit]

Why go through this trouble comparing apples to oranges? All these guys played different leagues in D and/or D1. There's a reason why Jarventie went second round and these guys went at the absolute top.

Why not compare him to Teraveinen instead? They played in same leagues at the same ages, both had late birthdays, and were drafted near each other. Still a very favourable comparison and you don't need to do any contortions or hypotheticals about birthdays. All that's missing is the world junior comparison.

Understand your point but just to be exact on the players ages used in Rafi's post. I'll also add more comparisons

Mikko Rantanen 2014-2015 (3 months older than Jarventie):
56 GP 9 G 19 A 28 PTS

Patrick Laine 2015-2016 (8 months younger than Jarventie):
46 GP 17 G 16 A 33 PTS

Aleksander Barkov 2012-2013 (13 months younger than Jarventie):
53 GP 21 G 27 A 48 PTS

Kaapo Kakko 2018-2019 (6 months younger than Jarventie):
45 GP 22 G 16 A 38 PTS

Roope Hintz 2016-2017 (3 months younger than Jarventie):
42 GP 5 G 12 A 17 PTS

Jesperi Kotkaniemi 2017-18 (11 months younger than Jarventie):
57 GP 10 G 19 A 29 PTS

Markus Granlund 2011-12 (4 months older than Jarventie):
47 GP 15 G 19 A 34 PTS

Jori Lehterä 2006-07 (8 months older than Jarventie):
28 GP 6 G 6 A 12 PTS

Olli Jokinen 1996-97 (4 months younger than Jarventie):
50 GP 14 G 27 A 41 PTS

Mikael Granlund 2009-10 (6 months younger than Jarventie):
43 GP 13 G 27 A 40 PTS

Teemu Pulkkinen 2010-11 (7 months older than Jarventie):
55 GP 18 G 36 A 54 PTS

Teuvo Teräväinen 2012-13 (1 month younger than Jarventie):
44 GP 13 G 18 A 31 PTS (it was his 2nd year in Liiga though : 40 GP 11 G 7 A 18 PTS in 2011-12)

Artturi Lehkonen 2012-13 (11 months younger than Jarventie):
45 GP 14 G 16 A 30 PTS

Mikko Koivu 2001‑02 (5 months older than Jarventie):
48 GP 4 G 3 A 7 PTS

Valtteri Filppula 2003‑04 (17 months older than Jarventie):
49 GP 5 G 13 A 18 PTS

Sebastian Aho 2015‑16 (same age):
45 GP 20 G 25 A 45 PTS

Joonas Donskoi 2010‑11 (4 months older than Jarventie):
52 GP 16 G 11 A 27 PTS

Joel Armia 2010‑11 (10 months younger than Jarventie):
48 GP 18 G 11 A 29 PTS

Kasperi Kapanen 2014‑15 (same age):
41 GP 11 G 10 A 21 PTS (it was his 2nd year in Liiga though : 47 GP 7 G 7 A 14 PTS in 2013-14)


Many of these guys were high picks, we could add where they were drafted. That is some valuable info to keep track

 

[ijif]

It isn't an apples to oranges comparison. All players listed played in Liiga. Using draft year or the year after the draft is still a reasonably close comparison. The point is to compare Jarventie with the best Finnish players in recent years to see how they performed in Liiga in a similar age range. This kind of approach is just a heuristic; it is a way to try to guess upside.

So far Jarventie is producing at a roughly equivalent (and in some cases superior) rate to Rantenen, Laine, Barkov and Kakko in their draft year. Jarventie is producing at this rate in his D+1 season but he has a late birthday so you can calibrate that any way you like.

For Roope Hintz I used his D+2 season because of how well Jarventie is producing. Hintz was drafted in 2015 in the 2nd round. Here are his stats after being drafted:
2015-2016: 33 GP 8 G 12 A 20 PTS
2016-2017: 44 GP 19 G 11 A 30 PTS

Based on Jarventie's current production he is on track to not only outperform Hintz in terms of production in his D+1 season but also in his D+2 season.

Yes, Jarventie has an August birthday, but Barkov was a before cut-off September birthday, so my calibration tells me that they are not comparable.

Laine is about four months older than Jarventie in any given development year, but Laine smoked him in his DY. In Laine's DY+1, he dropped 35 goals in the NHL.

Kakko is about 6 months older than Jarventie in any given development year, but again, he is well ahead of Jarventie. Kakko was trash in the NHL, but he still managed to pace for roughly 30 points. Jarventie's scoring in his DY+1 is about equal to Kakko's DY, but now Kakko is the younger player, so he is ahead. It's closer than Barkov, but it is still clearly a Kakko lead.

Rantanen seems like a fair comparison, but the issue here is that Rantanen played on a very poor offensive team. Five players on Jarventie's team are PPG or better. Nobody on Rantanen's team was PPG. The goal leader on Rantanen's team had 13 in 35 games. Somebody on Jarventie's team already has 13 goals in 15 games. Rantanen's team had 122 GF in 60 games (2.03). Roby's team has scored 62 goals in 15 games (4.13). Rantanen's team also gave up 2.87 goals per game. Roby's team is giving up 2 goals per game. Rantanen's team was the second-worst team in Liiga. Jarventie's team is the best team this year.

 

[Xspyrit]

It’s not worrying at all that our euro strategy was letting our guy just pick a guy he knew knowing we didn’t cover much ground Over there? That’s my point.

It's just one pick, a 4th round pick

Some of these scouts work full time for your organization, for years. At some point, you have to "listen" to them. That european scout must have made a really great selling job on Lodin. Don't think he had to put his head on the chopping block as it was a 4th round pick.

If Lodin never pans out (as it looks right now), it's just a swing and a miss, like it actually happens in the vast majority of cases outside of the 1st round.

But you didn't answer my questions

Where do you take your information when you say "way off nhl consensus board"
Who are those "NHL certified expert talking heads" you are talking about?

Yes, Jarventie has an August birthday, but Barkov was a before cut-off September birthday, so my calibration tells me that they are not comparable.

Laine is about four months older than Jarventie in any given development year, but Laine smoked him in his DY. In Laine's DY+1, he dropped 35 goals in the NHL.

Kakko is about 6 months older than Jarventie in any given development year, but again, he is well ahead of Jarventie. Kakko was trash in the NHL, but he still managed to pace for roughly 30 points. Jarventie's scoring in his DY+1 is about equal to Kakko's DY, but now Kakko is the younger player, so he is ahead. It's closer than Barkov, but it is still clearly a Kakko lead.

Rantanen seems like a fair comparison, but the issue here is that Rantanen played on a very poor offensive team. Five players on Jarventie's team are PPG or better. Nobody on Rantanen's team was PPG. The goal leader on Rantanen's team had 13 in 35 games. Somebody on Jarventie's team already has 13 goals in 15 games. Rantanen's team had 122 GF in 60 games (2.03). Roby's team has scored 62 goals in 15 games (4.13). Rantanen's team also gave up 2.87 goals per game. Roby's team is giving up 2 goals per game. Rantanen's team was the second-worst team in Liiga. Jarventie's team is the best team this year.

Ok but your post is directed as if Rafi's post was an intent to say that Jarventie's is favoraby comparing to all these guys. I saw it as food for thought and something to keep track on. That's why I made post #605 to be more exact on age comparisons.

It's great that Jarventie is in this discussion already!

 

[Burrowsaurus]

It's just one pick, a 4th round pick

Some of these scouts work full time for your organization, for years. At some point, you have to "listen" to them. That european scout must have made a really great selling job on Lodin. Don't think he had to put his head on the chopping block as it was a 4th round pick.

If Lodin never pans out (as it looks right now), it's just a swing and a miss, like it actually happens in the vast majority of cases outside of the 1st round.

But you didn't answer my questions

Where do you take your information when you say "way off nhl consensus board"
Who are those "NHL certified expert talking heads" you are talking about?

kleven was ranked high on bobs list. that list is the closest to how the draft usually goes. we picked him there. the older internet scouts that still have NHL contact had him aroun dthere as well. sportsnet had hi around there as well.

Mervilainen, basically no one knows him lol... sokolov was a reach according to bobs list.. daoust, engstrand, reinhardt, i dont see anywhere,. i could just be missing them.

so 4 picks way off board, alledgedly. im not saying these are BAD picks. im just asking WHY are they our picks. you and bondratime have offered explanations, and theyre fine explanations. i just wonder if they still would have been our picks if we had more feet on the ground in europe lets say, and that brings me back to the lodin pick from last year. again an explanation has been given for that. fine. the explanation is fine, but that doesnt make the thought process into picking him or anyone else any more right.

like i said i just wish we heard the indiidual scouts talk about the picks more

 

[Sweatred]

kleven was ranked high on bobs list. that list is the closest to how the draft usually goes. we picked him there. the older internet scouts that still have NHL contact had him aroun dthere as well. sportsnet had hi around there as well.

Mervilainen, basically no one knows him lol... sokolov was a reach according to bobs list.. daoust, engstrand, reinhardt, i dont see anywhere,. i could just be missing them.

so 4 picks way off board, alledgedly. im not saying these are BAD picks. im just asking WHY are they our picks. you and bondratime have offered explanations, and theyre fine explanations. i just wonder if they still would have been our picks if we had more feet on the ground in europe lets say, and that brings me back to the lodin pick from last year. again an explanation has been given for that. fine. the explanation is fine, but that doesnt make the thought process into picking him or anyone else any more right.

like i said i just wish we heard the indiidual scouts talk about the picks more

Feels like an under powered scouting staff would rely on general consensus picks ? Pretty safe to take a consensus kids rated at 20 who falls to 33.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Feels like an under powered scouting staff would rely on general consensus picks ? Pretty safe to take a consensus kids rated at 20 who falls to 33.

if youre trying to make the point that we shoudl get back to talking about jarventie lol. Im not saying we rely on conensus. and im not saying we dont. we obviously hve scouts that watch these guys at one time or another.

 

[Sweatred]

if youre trying to make the point that we shoudl get back to talking about jarventie lol. Im not saying we rely on conensus. and im not saying we dont. we obviously hve scouts that watch these guys at one time or another.

Nope, I just feel if the Sens don’t have enough boots they grab Peterka or Gunler types at that pick. They obviously felt confident to pass on those type for RJ.

 

[Xspyrit]

kleven was ranked high on bobs list. that list is the closest to how the draft usually goes. we picked him there. the older internet scouts that still have NHL contact had him aroun dthere as well. sportsnet had hi around there as well.

Mervilainen, basically no one knows him lol... sokolov was a reach according to bobs list.. daoust, engstrand, reinhardt, i dont see anywhere,. i could just be missing them.

so 4 picks way off board, alledgedly. im not saying these are BAD picks. im just asking WHY are they our picks. you and bondratime have offered explanations, and theyre fine explanations. i just wonder if they still would have been our picks if we had more feet on the ground in europe lets say, and that brings me back to the lodin pick from last year. again an explanation has been given for that. fine. the explanation is fine, but that doesnt make the thought process into picking him or anyone else any more right.

like i said i just wish we heard the indiidual scouts talk about the picks more

At the end of the day, teams take the players they have the most faith in becoming "something" or becoming something more than another guy they could have picked at that spot. There's no right or wrong on draft day, it becomes right or wrong eventually

A scouting team has several voices and the GM has the responsibility to listen to these voices. If he doesn't, might as well fire the scout and hire someone else that he might listen.

Bob's list is the closest thing there is to NHL concensus but it does NOT respresent the average of all 31 teams draft lists, only a certain %

Knowing that, I have no idea how you still determine that 4 picks were "way off board"

Sens just went with different picks than the lists you saw/like, everybody and their dog has a different list. Who is more right than others? Only time will tell because in the end, a re-draft is what the list should have looked like

I suggest you take a look at various re-drafts, you might realize how concensus doesn't exist as it is NOT an exact science.

The only concensus might happen at the top of the draft (vast majority of scouts and people had Lafreniere at #1) but even starting at #2, concensus stop existing as a lot of people were divided between Byfield and Stuetzle

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Nope, I just feel if the Sens don’t have enough boots they grab Peterka or Gunler types at that pick. They obviously felt confident to pass on those type for RJ.

gunler was never ever going to be a sens pick that early. even if we had a million boots on the ground.

 

[Micklebot]

kleven was ranked high on bobs list. that list is the closest to how the draft usually goes. we picked him there. the older internet scouts that still have NHL contact had him aroun dthere as well. sportsnet had hi around there as well.

Mervilainen, basically no one knows him lol... sokolov was a reach according to bobs list.. daoust, engstrand, reinhardt, i dont see anywhere,. i could just be missing them.

so 4 picks way off board, alledgedly. im not saying these are BAD picks. im just asking WHY are they our picks. you and bondratime have offered explanations, and theyre fine explanations. i just wonder if they still would have been our picks if we had more feet on the ground in europe lets say, and that brings me back to the lodin pick from last year. again an explanation has been given for that. fine. the explanation is fine, but that doesnt make the thought process into picking him or anyone else any more right.

like i said i just wish we heard the indiidual scouts talk about the picks more

I really like the stratedgy of taking overager picks in the 3rd round and later. Seems like a good way to get guys that are systemically undervalued. Had we picked Sokolov in his first year of eligibility people would be talking about him the same way the did Batherson and Formenton a year or two after they were drafted.

Goalies are voodoo so i try not to judge them as picks because im wrong about them far mor often then i am right, but that's the one i question.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I really like the stratedgy of taking overager picks in the 3rd round and later. Seems like a good way to get guys that are systemically undervalued. Had we picked Sokolov in his first year of eligibility people would be talking about him the same way the did Batherson and Formenton a year or two after they were drafted.

Goalies are voodoo so i try not to judge them as picks because im wrong about them far mor often then i am right, but that's the one i question.

I'd say this is KIND OF true. IIRC nobody , the the exception of @BondraTime , was that high on Batherson after the draft. And that was as a 4th rounder. People got really excited when he had a really good dev (or rookie) camp and then was dominant as a 19 year old. Sokolov hasn't had that chance because he was drafted at 20. No slight on him as I think there is good upside with him. If he has a really good training camp I'll get really excited about this pick.

And Formenton wasn't that hyped up because he never had crazy stats in junior but he was also drafted as a 17 year old. I was always excited about his speed and he looks like he's developing well but he's far from a lock to be an impact player in the NHL. I think he will but there's no certainty there.

The draft is a crap shoot and while I didn't really like a few of the Sens picks we won't know for several years how well they did.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

I really like the stratedgy of taking overager picks in the 3rd round and later. Seems like a good way to get guys that are systemically undervalued. Had we picked Sokolov in his first year of eligibility people would be talking about him the same way the did Batherson and Formenton a year or two after they were drafted.

Goalies are voodoo so i try not to judge them as picks because im wrong about them far mor often then i am right, but that's the one i question.

mm i disagree on sokolov. i dont think he would be viewed that way or else he would have went higher this year.

i dont know if thats why teams like over agers. could be their age has nothing to do with it they just like the player.

 

[Micklebot]

I'd say this is KIND OF true. IIRC nobody , the the exception of @BondraTime , was that high on Batherson after the draft. And that was as a 4th rounder. People got really excited when he had a really good dev (or rookie) camp and then was dominant as a 19 year old. Sokolov hasn't had that chance because he was drafted at 20. No slight on him as I think there is good upside with him. If he has a really good training camp I'll get really excited about this pick.

And Formenton wasn't that hyped up because he never had crazy stats in junior but he was also drafted as a 17 year old. I was always excited about his speed and he looks like he's developing well but he's far from a lock to be an impact player in the NHL. I think he will but there's no certainty there.

The draft is a crap shoot and while I didn't really like a few of the Sens picks we won't know for several years how well they did.

What I'm saying is after Batherson's draft+1 season, his 19 year old season in 2017-2018 people were thrilled with him.

Batherson put up 77 pts in 51 games, as a 19 year old. That summer, our boards prospect rankings had him as our 5th best prospect right between Colin White and Formenton.

Sokolov just put up 92 pts in 52 games as a 19 year old, but we've voted him our 16th best prospect (albeit in a much deeper pool).

Apples to Apples comparison, both guys in their 19 year old season, had we drafted 18 year old Sokolov like we did with Batherson, would we be voting him higher in our pool because of the massive Batherson like jump in his production?

 

[Alf Silfversson]

What I'm saying is after Batherson's draft+1 season, his 19 year old season in 2017-2018 people were thrilled with him.

Batherson put up 77 pts in 51 games, as a 19 year old. That summer, our boards prospect rankings had him as our 5th best prospect right between Colin White and Formenton.

Sokolov just put up 92 pts in 52 games as a 19 year old, but we've voted him our 16th best prospect (albeit in a much deeper pool).

Apples to Apples comparison, both guys in their 19 year old season, had we drafted 18 year old Sokolov like we did with Batherson, would we be voting him higher in our pool because of the massive Batherson like jump in his production?

Possibly, but like I said, Batherson had that great camp thrown in there.

Who knows. I liked what I heard and saw from Batherson but only got REALLY excited once I saw him against men in the AHL. Hopefully Sokolov gets the chance to wow as in the same capacity soon.

 

[aragorn]

What I like about drafting overagers or late bloomers is that hopefully they could be NHL ready sooner & maybe around the same time as the team's other good prospects that are coming through the system. While they can't all make the team in the same yr, they should be able to add 3 or 4 good prospects per yr moving forward.

I expect that at some future point Batherson, Norris, L. Brown, Formenton, Pinto, Stuetzle, Jarventie, Sokolov, JBD, Sanderson, Kleven, 2021 1st & 2nd rd pick(s) & a handful of maybes to join Chabot, Tkachuk & maybe White if he is still around. Ottawa needs to use their assets to acquire at least another 2021 mid 1st rd pick to draft the best RD they can.

 

[Micklebot]

Possibly, but like I said, Batherson had that great camp thrown in there.

Who knows. I liked what I heard and saw from Batherson but only got REALLY excited once I saw him against men in the AHL. Hopefully Sokolov gets the chance to wow as in the same capacity soon.

Maybe he wouldn't be as hyped as batherson was but i think he's definately underatted when you compare

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Maybe he wouldn't be as hyped as batherson was but i think he's definately underatted when you compare

Probably right there. He's huge, obviously can shoot the puck and when you hear about how hard he's working he's an intriguing prospect for sure.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Yes, Jarventie has an August birthday, but Barkov was a before cut-off September birthday, so my calibration tells me that they are not comparable.

Laine is about four months older than Jarventie in any given development year, but Laine smoked him in his DY. In Laine's DY+1, he dropped 35 goals in the NHL.

Kakko is about 6 months older than Jarventie in any given development year, but again, he is well ahead of Jarventie. Kakko was trash in the NHL, but he still managed to pace for roughly 30 points. Jarventie's scoring in his DY+1 is about equal to Kakko's DY, but now Kakko is the younger player, so he is ahead. It's closer than Barkov, but it is still clearly a Kakko lead.

Rantanen seems like a fair comparison, but the issue here is that Rantanen played on a very poor offensive team. Five players on Jarventie's team are PPG or better. Nobody on Rantanen's team was PPG. The goal leader on Rantanen's team had 13 in 35 games. Somebody on Jarventie's team already has 13 goals in 15 games. Rantanen's team had 122 GF in 60 games (2.03). Roby's team has scored 62 goals in 15 games (4.13). Rantanen's team also gave up 2.87 goals per game. Roby's team is giving up 2 goals per game. Rantanen's team was the second-worst team in Liiga. Jarventie's team is the best team this year.

Good to know. Clearly they aren't perfect comparisons. The point is that if Jarventie in his D+1 season can produce as good if not better than what players like Barkov, Laine, Kakko and Rantenen did in their draft years then it is a good sign. Trent Mann said that Jarventie will be a project pick with a lot of things to work on, so it is more trying to get a read on what raw potential is there. Comparing Jarventie's production to the draft year production of those top Finnish players is a way of trying to achieve that.

Simply on production alone he is producing at a rate superior to Roope Hintz in Hintz's D+1 and D+2 season. From a pure potential perspective Jarventie may have more raw potential than Hintz and his upside might be much closer to Rantenen, Barkov, Laine and Kakko than it is to Hintz. So it is possible that Jarventie may be showing signs that he has similar upside to those players but just a lower probability of achieving it and as a consequence much more challenges.

Again this form of comparison is just a heuristic; it is a mental shortcut to make a simplified analysis. Jarventie is producing at a good rate this season. The question then is what is a good benchmark for determining what "good production" looks like. All of Rantenen, Barkov, Laine and Kakko were highly touted Finnish prospects that have seen success in the NHL. Therefore their Liiga production becomes a relative benchmark for what "good production" looks like. The fact that their production is in their draft year and Jarventie's production is in his D+1 season is relevant but with a limited number of successful NHL players who are Finnish, were drafted within the last 10 years and played in Liiga the options are more limited. Their Liiga production is useful for trying to estimate a rough upside of a Finnish prospect.

With that said, I like that you have provided a more thorough analysis because it evolves this discussion from a relative benchmark heuristic into something more comprehensive and potentially more predictive. I still think this relative benchmark is useful so t might be worth considering a calibration metric. If the D season is the benchmark then how should production be weighted in a D+1 season? Or, like you have initiated, maybe a detailed analysis of the D seasons of those players is needed to properly calibrate Jarventie's production.

My objective here is to try to get a rough estimate on Jarventie's upside. Across all leagues and multiple drafts D season production might not be the best benchmark. There are plenty of examples of prospects that had strong D seasons and either never amounted to NHL players or whose upside was much lower than their D season would have suggested. There are also multiple examples of some of the best point producing NHL players where they didn't have an outstanding D season but their D+1 or D+2 or even AHL season revealed the extent of their upside. So it may make sense in some contexts to compare a D season of one player to a D+1 season of another player. Or maybe there is an entirely different metric for making such a prediction of upside that I haven't mentioned here.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Good to know. Clearly they aren't perfect comparisons. The point is that if Jarventie in his D+1 season can produce as good if not better than what players like Barkov, Laine, Kakko and Rantenen did in their draft years then it is a good sign. Trent Mann said that Jarventie will be a project pick with a lot of things to work on, so it is more trying to get a read on what raw potential is there. Comparing Jarventie's production to the draft year production of those top Finnish players is a way of trying to achieve that.

Simply on production alone he is producing at a rate superior to Roope Hintz in Hintz's D+1 and D+2 season. From a pure potential perspective Jarventie may have more raw potential than Hintz and his upside might be much closer to Rantenen, Barkov, Laine and Kakko than it is to Hintz. So it is possible that Jarventie may be showing signs that he has similar upside to those players but just a lower probability of achieving it and as a consequence much more challenges.

Again this form of comparison is just a heuristic; it is a mental shortcut to make a simplified analysis. Jarventie is producing at a good rate this season. The question then is what is a good benchmark for determining what "good production" looks like. All of Rantenen, Barkov, Laine and Kakko were highly touted Finnish prospects that have seen success in the NHL. Therefore their Liiga production becomes a relative benchmark for what "good production" looks like. The fact that their production is in their draft year and Jarventie's production is in his D+1 season is relevant but with a limited number of successful NHL players who are Finnish, were drafted within the last 10 years and played in Liiga the options are more limited. Their Liiga production is useful for trying to estimate a rough upside of a Finnish prospect.

With that said, I like that you have provided a more thorough analysis because it evolves this discussion from a relative benchmark heuristic into something more comprehensive and potentially more predictive. I still think this relative benchmark is useful so t might be worth considering a calibration metric. If the D season is the benchmark then how should production be weighted in a D+1 season? Or, like you have initiated, maybe a detailed analysis of the D seasons of those players is needed to properly calibrate Jarventie's production.

My objective here is to try to get a rough estimate on Jarventie's upside. Across all leagues and multiple drafts D season production might not be the best benchmark. There are plenty of examples of prospects that had strong D seasons and either never amounted to NHL players or whose upside was much lower than their D season would have suggested. There are also multiple examples of some of the best point producing NHL players where they didn't have an outstanding D season but their D+1 or D+2 or even AHL season revealed the extent of their upside. So it may make sense in some contexts to compare a D season of one player to a D+1 season of another player. Or maybe there is an entirely different metric for making such a prediction of upside that I haven't mentioned here.

Isn't this similar to what Byron Bader and others do through NHLe?

 

[Bevans]

Understand your point but just to be exact on the players ages used in Rafi's post. I'll also add more comparisons

Mikko Rantanen 2014-2015 (3 months older than Jarventie):
56 GP 9 G 19 A 28 PTS

Patrick Laine 2015-2016 (8 months younger than Jarventie):
46 GP 17 G 16 A 33 PTS

Aleksander Barkov 2012-2013 (13 months younger than Jarventie):
53 GP 21 G 27 A 48 PTS

Kaapo Kakko 2018-2019 (6 months younger than Jarventie):
45 GP 22 G 16 A 38 PTS

Roope Hintz 2016-2017 (3 months younger than Jarventie):
42 GP 5 G 12 A 17 PTS

Jesperi Kotkaniemi 2017-18 (11 months younger than Jarventie):
57 GP 10 G 19 A 29 PTS

Markus Granlund 2011-12 (4 months older than Jarventie):
47 GP 15 G 19 A 34 PTS

Jori Lehterä 2006-07 (8 months older than Jarventie):
28 GP 6 G 6 A 12 PTS

Olli Jokinen 1996-97 (4 months younger than Jarventie):
50 GP 14 G 27 A 41 PTS

Mikael Granlund 2009-10 (6 months younger than Jarventie):
43 GP 13 G 27 A 40 PTS

Teemu Pulkkinen 2010-11 (7 months older than Jarventie):
55 GP 18 G 36 A 54 PTS

Teuvo Teräväinen 2012-13 (1 month younger than Jarventie):
44 GP 13 G 18 A 31 PTS (it was his 2nd year in Liiga though : 40 GP 11 G 7 A 18 PTS in 2011-12)

Artturi Lehkonen 2012-13 (11 months younger than Jarventie):
45 GP 14 G 16 A 30 PTS

Mikko Koivu 2001‑02 (5 months older than Jarventie):
48 GP 4 G 3 A 7 PTS

Valtteri Filppula 2003‑04 (17 months older than Jarventie):
49 GP 5 G 13 A 18 PTS

Sebastian Aho 2015‑16 (same age):
45 GP 20 G 25 A 45 PTS

Joonas Donskoi 2010‑11 (4 months older than Jarventie):
52 GP 16 G 11 A 27 PTS

Joel Armia 2010‑11 (10 months younger than Jarventie):
48 GP 18 G 11 A 29 PTS

Kasperi Kapanen 2014‑15 (same age):
41 GP 11 G 10 A 21 PTS (it was his 2nd year in Liiga though : 47 GP 7 G 7 A 14 PTS in 2013-14)


Many of these guys were high picks, we could add where they were drafted. That is some valuable info to keep track

I agree using comps is always the best. I just get leery when people minimize the impact of draft year. I agree, physically speaking, being born in August or October is almost negligible. But the draft cut off generally makes an appreciable difference, especially when it comes with a league change. (example: Rantanen didn't play in the same league as Jarventie D or D1. Aside from being born in the same country and within a few months of each other on the calendar, I don't see him as a comparator.)

I'm confused by this list you provided. Lehtera you use his D-1 season, Hintz and Rantanen you use D, Kapanen D+1. It just makes it hard to get a fair comparison and casts too wide a net.

Jarventie is a tough guy to compare using this method in particular. He had the best U21 Mestis season of all time, has a super late birthday, and now he's playing in Liiga in a year stacked with NHL prospects on a dominant team.

He's similar to Petterson or Makar in the sense that he dominated a lower-league that draft-season guys rarely play in for a full season. That means there are almost no real comparisons other than what we can glean from a 15 game sample size in a unique Liiga season and his U16 and U18 stuff.

I understand the desire to cast a broad net, but I think there's more value to be derived from specificity, especially in such a unique case.

I think Teraveinen fills that need, I didn't go over the others with a fine comb but I'm sure there are a couple others in there.

 

[RAFI BOMB]

Isn't this similar to what Byron Bader and others do through NHLe?

Possibly. I am not familiar with Byron Bader.