Prospect Info: 33rd overall Roby Jarventie LW FIN

[BondraTime]

I think cost comes into it. Lots are struggling to admit but limited funds for travel definitely influence decisions. Also. Goodwill. Taking guys that have been passed over. Sometimes twice. Definitely created goodwill.

Travel budget for scouting is essentially a non factor, it's an extremely, extremely small number in the whole picture. In the thousands.

That's another narrative that's going to be thrown around for a while unfortunately

Goodwill? What? Drafting overagers doesn't create goodwill, there are like 50 drafted every draft by most teams

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Travel budget for scouting is essentially a non factor, it's an extremely, extremely small number in the whole picture

That's another narrative that's going to be thrown around for a while

Goodwill? What? Drafting overagers doesn't create goodwill, there are like 50 drafted every draft

Do other teams do it as often as us? Overagers way off consensus. And that’s nhl consensus.

I think it does. If you’re a kid who’s been passed up I think you’re definitely more likely of being loyal to the team that takes that shot on you. More so than regular.

I’m spit balling on our strategy. The past few years. Outside the 1st/2ns round has been odd.

do you think our strategy is strictly BPA at every spot? I don’t.

 

[BondraTime]

Do other teams do it as often as us? Overagers way off consensus. And that’s nhl consensus.

I think it does. If you’re a kid who’s been passed up I think you’re definitely more likely of being loyal to the team that takes that shot on you. More so than regular.

I’m spit balling on our strategy. The past few years. Outside the 1st/2ns round has been odd.

do you think our strategy is strictly BPA at every spot? I don’t.

Leafs drafted 2 (5 the previous 2 drafts), Habs 2 (5 the previous 2 drafts), just a quick glance at our 2 rivals this year.

Sens have taken less overagers (6) since the 2018 draft than both the Leafs and Habs,and I'm sure quite a few more

Guy taken right after Sokolov was also an overager, for people saying we picked an overager too high..

Overaged picks have a higher success rate after the first 60 picks, which is a reason so many teams are employing that. It's not just the Sens.

There is no goodwill, anyone drafted by a team, at any age, will go about business as usual. No teams are drafting guys for goodwill, none.

BPA based on the Sens internal list, with adjustments made depending on where they're ranked and where they think they will be available.

 

[MrInvidious]

Do other teams do it as often as us? Overagers way off consensus. And that’s nhl consensus.

I think it does. If you’re a kid who’s been passed up I think you’re definitely more likely of being loyal to the team that takes that shot on you. More so than regular.

I’m spit balling on our strategy. The past few years. Outside the 1st/2ns round has been odd.

do you think our strategy is strictly BPA at every spot? I don’t.

Thinking their strategy isn't exactly taking the BPA at every position compared to thinking that the team actively takes overagers with the hopes that it will create good will are two very different stances.

There's no way an NHL GM is making the decision to draft a player in the mid-late rounds of an NHL draft because "he's older so he'll owe us one". Even one that's working under Eugene Melnyk.

Instead, the realistic alternative is that a GM may see more value in late-blooming players in terms of their developmental path. NHL scouts are human beings as well. They want to be the people who find the diamond in the rough. They get attached to certain guys who may be under-valued by others. If every team were to just draft off of consensus, we wouldn't need scouts or a draft. We could just assign ranked players to teams based on standings.

At the end of the day, Pierre Dorion, Trent Mann and the scouting staff are drafting the players they believe have the best chance at being impactful NHL players. Not even this gongshow of an organization is worrying about "good will" with a mid-late round pick.

 

[aragorn]

If they hit a couple of home runs with these overagers who hopefully are NHL ready around the same time as their higher drafted prospects, they could be looking for a very young team maturing around the same time to go on a deep run. Overagers tend to know that they are still in junior for a reason & if they want to make hockey a career they have to outwork everyone else. Ottawa could have a very young team in a couple of yrs with potentially a lot of good hard working players throughout the lineup hopefully starting to peak around the same time.

 

[SpezDispenser]

If they hit a couple of home runs with these overagers who hopefully are NHL ready around the same time as their higher drafted prospects, they could be looking for a very young team maturing around the same time to go on a deep run. Overagers tend to know that they are still in junior for a reason & if they want to make hockey a career they have to outwork everyone else. Ottawa could have a very young team in a couple of yrs with potentially a lot of good hard working players throughout the lineup hopefully starting to peak around the same time.

It's almost a certainty. The only thing getting in the way of it is they either get impatient and start trading youth, or the bulk of the prospects bomb.

 

[Ippenator]

Why are you guys so much talking about drafting overagers in Roby Järventie’s thread? I mean he’s no overager and I don’t really get it what he has to do so much with overage draftees.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Why are you guys so much talking about drafting overagers in Roby Järventie’s thread? I mean he’s no overager and I don’t really get it what he has to do so much with overage draftees.

rules shmooles.

 

[Ouroboros]

Well... at least this has yet to turn into yet another Colin White thread.

 

[Alf Silfversson]

Well... at least this has yet to turn into yet another Colin White thread.

 

[GCK]

I see Jarventie supplanting White at RW before White’s contract expires.

 

[Tuna99]

Roby Goalventie

 

[Alf Silfversson]

I see Jarventie supplanting White at RW before White’s contract expires.

We're going to need him to, once White inevitably moves to #1C!!!

 

[Xspyrit]

Drafting an overager simply means that you are drafting a guy that would have been drafted before if his development had been more "standard". If you're drafted as an overager, it's most likely because you are a "late bloomer" that had a recent steep development curve. Sokolov is a prime example. He was always on NHL teams radar but too slow and not productive/efficient enough to be worth a pick. He broke out in a major way in his 19 y/o season and got drafted 61st as a result.

Like Bondratime demonstrated, Sens are not doing anything special in regards to overagers. Not sure why the narrative comes back over and over again. Drafting overagers has been a NHL thing for a long time, not a Sens thing.

Instead, a trend that should be noticed is that the Sens are really focused on drafting "risers". That's why they will not care about "couch scouting" because it's not about what the draftee has done so far but what they see him do in the future. Something they did pretty well with Formenton, Batherson, Pinto, Jarventie, etc... even if most of those picks were criticized at first glance.

They do not care, because they know they are actually pretty good at "projecting". Of course, their batting average won't be 1.000 but I don't know, it looks pretty damn good vs most teams since 2008

Look at where good teams find their best players in general : top of the draft and UFA market. For example, the Leafs got their best players from top-8 picks or UFA signings. They are not finding guys like Pageau, Stone, Hoffman in later rounds, or even guys like Chabot and Karlsson in the middle of the 1st.

Opposedly, a team like Tampa Bay is able to find good players anywhere (ex : Kucherov, Point) and that has paid off.

Do other teams do it as often as us? Overagers way off consensus. And that’s nhl consensus.

I think it does. If you’re a kid who’s been passed up I think you’re definitely more likely of being loyal to the team that takes that shot on you. More so than regular.

I’m spit balling on our strategy. The past few years. Outside the 1st/2ns round has been odd.

do you think our strategy is strictly BPA at every spot? I don’t.

Based on the fact that your other arguments are not grounded in reality whatsoever, I think we can also put that to rest. Travel budget, goodwill, overagers, not drafting BPA, etc. That is a lot of spit balling

Read what I wrote above. Sens are focused on risers, but even more than that, they are projecting their BPAs, not at the moment of the draft but down the road. Some teams might prefer to go the safer route and take the "proven junior player" but in the end, it doesn't necessarily guarantee anything.

Yes the Sens make a lot of "gutsy" picks but that's because they have a lot of confidence in what they're doing.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Drafting an overager simply means that you are drafting a guy that would have been drafted before if his development had been more "standard". If you're drafted as an overager, it's most likely because you are a "late bloomer" that had a recent steep development curve. Sokolov is a prime example. He was always on NHL teams radar but too slow and not productive/efficient enough to be worth a pick. He broke out in a major way in his 19 y/o season and got drafted 61st as a result.

Like Bondratime demonstrated, Sens are not doing anything special in regards to overagers. Not sure why the narrative comes back over and over again. Drafting overagers has been a NHL thing for a long time, not a Sens thing.

Instead, a trend that should be noticed is that the Sens are really focused on drafting "risers". That's why they will not care about "couch scouting" because it's not about what the draftee has done so far but what they see him do in the future. Something they did pretty well with Formenton, Batherson, Pinto, Jarventie, etc... even if most of those picks were criticized at first glance.

They do not care, because they know they are actually pretty good at "projecting". Of course, their batting average won't be 1.000 but I don't know, it looks pretty damn good vs most teams since 2008

Look at where good teams find their best players in general : top of the draft and UFA market. For example, the Leafs got their best players from top-8 picks or UFA signings. They are not finding guys like Pageau, Stone, Hoffman in later rounds, or even guys like Chabot and Karlsson in the middle of the 1st.

Opposedly, a team like Tampa Bay is able to find good players anywhere (ex : Kucherov, Point) and that has paid off.



Based on the fact that your other arguments are not grounded in reality whatsoever, I think we can also put that to rest. Travel budget, goodwill, overagers, not drafting BPA, etc. That is a lot of spit balling

Read what I wrote above. Sens are focused on risers, but even more than that, they are projecting their BPAs, not at the moment of the draft but down the road. Some teams might prefer to go the safer route and take the "proven junior player" but in the end, it doesn't necessarily guarantee anything.

Yes the Sens make a lot of "gutsy" picks but that's because they have a lot of confidence in what they're doing.

based in relity lol, im guessing as to why we draft the way we do for better or for worse.

 

[Sweatred]

We're going to need him to, once White inevitably moves to #1C!!!

Hasn’t that already been handed to him?

 

[Xspyrit]

based in relity lol, im guessing as to why we draft the way we do for better or for worse.

Why the lol? You said it yourself, you're spitballing

A definition for that term :

"To make a suggestion loosely, often one that goes against common logic."

After spitballing on travel budget for scouting, "goodwill" and overagers, you said "do you think our strategy is strictly BPA at every spot? I don’t.", which doesn't sound realistic at all. You took several swings and struck out each time.

Why wouln't a team draft the player they have the most faith in, or that they project better down the road? So they could save 200 K$ yearly on a contract down the road? Or because it was 1000$ less expensive to scout prospect X instead of prospect Y?

Like every team, the Sens take the BPA on their list. They determine their BPAs based on several factors and all teams have similar and different trends. A lack of depht at certain positions in the organization can have some influence or a lack of particular skills, overagers in the later rounds seems like a trend (for many NHL teams), players with family ties with the NHL, big risers, guys that will attend UND, guys that will soon have a much bigger opportunity, etc.

Scouting is not about reading a stat line, it's about projecting.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Why the lol? You said it yourself, you're spitballing

A definition for that term :

"To make a suggestion loosely, often one that goes against common logic."

After spitballing on travel budget for scouting, "goodwill" and overagers, you said "do you think our strategy is strictly BPA at every spot? I don’t.", which doesn't sound realistic at all. You took several swings and struck out each time.

Why wouln't a team draft the player they have the most faith in, or that they project better down the road? So they could save 200 K$ yearly on a contract down the road? Or because it was 1000$ less expensive to scout prospect X instead of prospect Y?

Like every team, the Sens take the BPA on their list. They determine their BPAs based on several factors and all teams have similar and different trends. A lack of depht at certain positions in the organization can have some influence or a lack of particular skills, overagers in the later rounds seems like a trend (for many NHL teams), players with family ties with the NHL, big risers, guys that will attend UND, guys that will soon have a much bigger opportunity, etc.

Scouting is not about reading a stat line, it's about projecting.

yes exactly spitballing. you said my statements were not grounded in reality.. of course not as i do not know the reality i havent spoken to the scouts. so yeah, spitballing.

i have no idea what goes on in there... it is funny how the kleven pick has been called a great pick here becasue they got him right where he was ranked by nhl consensus... but when we go way off nhl consensus board for a double overager later on its also called great pick becuse we "have lots of confidence in what we are doing".... why the Lodin pick? why daoust? why reinhardt?

kleven it was "LOOK HES CLEARLY THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE LOOK AT NHL CONSENSUS" for these guys its 'CLEARLY THE SENS FELT HE WAS THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE NHL CONSENSUS BE DAMNED". I mean i feel we make more picks the last couple years that have people going "mm who?" and yes that includes the NHL certified expert talking heads. i would like to know why.. do we scout MORE than other teams maybe im way off and we actually travel more. or have a larger scouting crew than other teams and we just get the jump on these guys, i have no idea. And do we think its always just a coincidence the guy we drafts used to be friends the current player or the pick was the backup goalie on the same team as one of our prospects or yada yada

i miss when we used to let all the scouts talk about their picks. instead of just Mann or just Dorion.

 

[BondraTime]

yes exactly spitballing. you said my statements were not grounded in reality.. of course not as i do not know the reality i havent spoken to the scouts. so yeah, spitballing.

i have no idea what goes on in there... it is funny how the kleven pick has been called a great pick here becasue they got him right where he was ranked by nhl consensus... but when we go way off nhl consensus board for a double overager later on its also called great pick becuse we "have lots of confidence in what we are doing".... why the Lodin pick? why daoust? why reinhardt?

kleven it was "LOOK HES CLEARLY THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE LOOK AT NHL CONSENSUS" for these guys its 'CLEARLY THE SENS FELT HE WAS THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE NHL CONSENSUS BE DAMNED". I mean i feel we make more picks the last couple years that have people going "mm who?" and yes that includes the NHL certified expert talking heads. i would like to know why.. do we scout MORE than other teams maybe im way off and we actually travel more. or have a larger scouting crew than other teams and we just get the jump on these guys, i have no idea. And do we think its always just a coincidence the guy we drafts used to be friends the current player or the pick was the backup goalie on the same team as one of our prospects or yada yada

i miss when we used to let all the scouts talk about their picks. instead of just Mann or just Dorion.

Lodin pick because our Swedish scout had been following him intently for the past 5 years, and they went with his call, much to early and was a bad pick.

Reinhardt pick because they spent a significant amount of time scouting Brandon, and the obviously liked what they saw from him. I have nothing to add, because I’ve never seen him play, have you?

Daoust was a 1st year eligible, buried on a very strong Wildcat team. He has looked very good thus far, miles better than he did last year.

I honestly don’t understand your line of thinking regarding this stuff, very strange. Teams pick players because they believe them to be the best picks at that spot, regardless of where guys are ranked online.

 

[The Devilish Buffoon]

Lodin pick because our Swedish scout had been following him intently for the past 5 years, and they went with his call, much to early and was a bad pick.

Reinhardt pick because they spent a significant amount of time scouting Brandon, and the obviously liked what they saw from him. I have nothing to add, because I’ve never seen him play, have you?

Daoust was a 1st year eligible, buried on a very strong Wildcat team. He has looked very good thus far, miles better than he did last year.

Have you been able to watch much of Daoust this season? I know you werent a huge fan on draft day.

 

[BondraTime]

Have you been able to watch much of Daoust this season? I know you werent a huge fan on draft day.

Wasn’t a fan of his whatsoever last year, would not have thought he’d have been drafted. To be fair, he’d never be a guy I focused on in the 3 or so Wildcat games I attended, and never thought of him as a draft prospect. Just saw him as an OHL cast off.

In the games I watched online this year, he’s their go to guy and has looked good doing it. He’s been their best skater outside of Spence. Looks like a guy worthy of his draft selection at this point, Sens scouts (Mann especially) showing well there thus far, as I never would have predicted that.

 

[FormentonTheFuture]

yes exactly spitballing. you said my statements were not grounded in reality.. of course not as i do not know the reality i havent spoken to the scouts. so yeah, spitballing.

i have no idea what goes on in there... it is funny how the kleven pick has been called a great pick here becasue they got him right where he was ranked by nhl consensus... but when we go way off nhl consensus board for a double overager later on its also called great pick becuse we "have lots of confidence in what we are doing".... why the Lodin pick? why daoust? why reinhardt?

kleven it was "LOOK HES CLEARLY THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE LOOK AT NHL CONSENSUS" for these guys its 'CLEARLY THE SENS FELT HE WAS THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE NHL CONSENSUS BE DAMNED". I mean i feel we make more picks the last couple years that have people going "mm who?" and yes that includes the NHL certified expert talking heads. i would like to know why.. do we scout MORE than other teams maybe im way off and we actually travel more. or have a larger scouting crew than other teams and we just get the jump on these guys, i have no idea. And do we think its always just a coincidence the guy we drafts used to be friends the current player or the pick was the backup goalie on the same team as one of our prospects or yada yada

i miss when we used to let all the scouts talk about their picks. instead of just Mann or just Dorion.

This is very false. There's a difference between "consensus" and looking at Bob McKenzie's rankings specifically. I couldn't care less about the consensus rankings. Bob's rankings are actual NHL scout opinions.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

1.10 - Dadonov and Daddy Daycare – The Common Sens Podcast – Podcast
Hailey talks about the Sens draft on here and provides some rationale to certain picks and the Sens approach to the draft going after certain profiles that can become important pieces in key roles down the road when they are ready to compete. Lets hope it works out because it was a huge opportunity. If all else fails I really like the profiles they went after in their 1st 4 picks .. but with the depth of this draft it should look good. Hard to say how the double OAs will translate their success at junior levels to the pros. The goalie at 71 ok.. I guess but probably could have had him later.

 

[Sweatred]

Hard to say how the double OAs will translate their success at junior levels to the pros. The goalie at 71 ok.. I guess but probably could have had him later.

Hard to say how any 3-5th rounder will translate their success at Junior to the pros... unless your aware of can’t miss 4th rounders ?

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Lodin pick because our Swedish scout had been following him intently for the past 5 years, and they went with his call, much to early and was a bad pick.

Reinhardt pick because they spent a significant amount of time scouting Brandon, and the obviously liked what they saw from him. I have nothing to add, because I’ve never seen him play, have you?

Daoust was a 1st year eligible, buried on a very strong Wildcat team. He has looked very good thus far, miles better than he did last year.

I honestly don’t understand your line of thinking regarding this stuff, very strange. Teams pick players because they believe them to be the best picks at that spot, regardless of where guys are ranked online.

Okay that Reinhardt point is good. They spent a lot of time watching Brandon. Reinhardt is already there. They like what they see. So they pick him. But did they have enough exposure to all The WHL? Or do they just sort of pick a few teams and really focus there.

my line of thinking is just “why”. To address xspyrits point. No. I don’t think we say “oh this is definitely NOT the BPA so let’s pick
Him. I’m saying, He Is the BPA on our list. Why is he there how do we make our list do we have the resources (which have always been in question) to create a super super comprehensive list? I don’t know.

As for Lodin. Why was our scout watching him for five years? That’s not a probing question I actually don’t know.