Honest series synopsis:
Washington has been hot. We have been hot. We've played slightly easier opponents, but we'd be ranked far higher had we played the Canadian teams when they began to slump and we were peaking... as opposed to playing them when we were slumping and they were peaking.
Ovechkin is gonna be a match up nightmare. Even with Staal. Theres no guarantee he's in playoff shape, or even if he's in shape to play. After his dramatic come back against the Flyers in the WC last year i'm not ruling out a comeback in the 1st game of the playoffs... If he can come back, and be dominant, our defense becomes scary. Anyway, back to Ovechkin. He'll be a nightmare against Girardi and McDonough together, he'll be double and triple shifted every game too. He has really elevated his game.
But this series won't be won by him. It'll be won in the trenches and by the tenders. Players like Chimaera and Hagelin are gonna be key. The goalies are going to be huge. Holtby has not looked as dominant as he did last year. He stole 3 games for them last year. Lately, he's been rather meh. Our offense is clicking at the right time, and most importantly Henrik is clicking at the right time.
Washington isn't the best match up for us, but we're also not the best match up for them. I think Holtby is going to be BARRAGED with shots from this Rangers team. The way the defense has been chipping in lately, my lord, this series is all going to come down to how well the goalies play. The top 2 lines are going to stay the same heading into this series. Clowe and Dorsett (yes I think both will be back by game 1) returning will mean our 3rd line is going to be a solid checking line, and so will our 4th. Additionally, the main reason we're not a good match up for them... We've now played them 4/5 years with the same coach. He knows what works best 5/5. Why they've been so successful this year... their powerplay. Its downright unreal. Stay out of the box, this series is a cake walk. Go in the box... it'll be short and we'll be golfing before May 10.
Hope that Staal is able to come back, purely for pairing purposes. Can't rely on Girardi to play 30+ minutes like he did in Carolina. Otherwise, the keys to this series: 1) STAY OUT OF THE BOX 2) Win the trenches 3) Henrik has to be exponentially better than Holtby.
It's a winnable series. Its a losable series. This isn't like when we played the Thrashers as a 6 seed years ago. We'll lose if we're not focused and allowing power play chances and crazy odd man rushes. We'll win if we play like we did against the Penguins and Maple Leafs to begin this streak we've had going into the playoffs.
