CheckingLineCenter
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Salary Cap: 24-25 Salary Thread Crosbicles Volume MXVI: End of season wrap up
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DesertPenguin
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- Apr 22, 2015
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Karlsson out, run Letang, Timmins, Dumba on the right. Timmins already demonstrated the ability to play LD, so if someone pushes for time like Brunicke, St. Ivany etc on the right side, you can still use everyone.
Dumba is indeed ass, and I don't see him as a long term solution to anything, but if he helps us get Borque and plugs a hole for a year, I am for it. Who knows, you may even rehabilitate him into a TDL rental, a la Glass, Beavillier etc.
On the other hand I think we have enough guys in the fold right now that even is we subtract a Rust or Rakell, we don't need wing plugs. Koivunen and McG will get a chance to stick. Tomasino should be given a shot to take the next step. Novak can play wing, or even play C while Geno slides over. Hallander, Broz, Ponomarev all deserve shots to get into the show. Heck, I havent even mentioned Poulin, Puustinen, Avery Hayes, and the hangers on like Heinen and Kevin Hayes that can still fill in as a 3rd line winger on a non playoff team.
Point is there's an abundance of potential options to try, and an abundancy of fall back veterans if those go south. Wing depth is the one area we have no need to add at. Let the kids play.
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I don't think we're going to be the worst or second worst team in the league but bottom 5 seems like a real possibility. We were almost that this year already, and now we're looking at a roster where Sidney Crosby is going to be 38 coming into the season. And it certainly seems like Dubas isn't going to be making major adds this summer to the roster. If anything I think it's more likely he subtracts from the roster by moving out someone like a EK for a lesser player + picks/prospects. Maybe a new coach bump causes rebounds in the likes of Jarry/Graves/etc and makes the team better than this year, but I wouldn't count on it. Our roster is ass.
And I don't think either Koivunen or McGroarty make an instant impact on forward. I think there's going to be a lot of growing pains there. There will be flashes of good from them this year but it's going to be a struggle.
But as I've mentioned before in order to have a legit shot at McKenna you're looking at wanting to be the absolute worst team. That puts you at 25% which is still not nearly as high as I'd like but it's substantially higher than even the odds that #2 gets. So I don't consider hoping for McKenna to be a strategy we can rely on. It'd be fan-fing-tastic if it happened, but it probably won't.
But hopefully we get a high pick and there's other good players available in the event the McKenna balls don't bounce our way.
And I don't think either Koivunen or McGroarty make an instant impact on forward. I think there's going to be a lot of growing pains there. There will be flashes of good from them this year but it's going to be a struggle.
But as I've mentioned before in order to have a legit shot at McKenna you're looking at wanting to be the absolute worst team. That puts you at 25% which is still not nearly as high as I'd like but it's substantially higher than even the odds that #2 gets. So I don't consider hoping for McKenna to be a strategy we can rely on. It'd be fan-fing-tastic if it happened, but it probably won't.
But hopefully we get a high pick and there's other good players available in the event the McKenna balls don't bounce our way.
DesertPenguin
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Ask me again on July 3rd where we are going to land. I could see us being really bad, or I could see a new coach, a lot of youth injected and some key trades for young players making us a borderline playoff team.
Moneyball wise: We finished with a -50 goal differential on the year. By rights we should have ended up even lower in the standings. Montreal made it in with a -20, Minnesota with a -11. On the flip side Columbus missed at +5. So to be a fringe playoff team, you end up being about even on goal differential, and see how the chips fall. So that means we need to recover about 50 goals, either scored or saved to be a playoff team. Seems like a lot, but I think we get there without doing a whole lot.
3.5GAA and a 0.891 save percentage are the culprit for most of that. Jarry was historically bad even for him, Ned didn't perform and Blom wasn't ready. I don't expect goaltending to be good, per say, next year, but I think this was a statistical outlier that will regress to the mean.
2025 - 3.50GAA and 0.891S%
2024 - 3.02GAA and 0.901 S%
2023 - 3.21GAA and 0.907 S%
Im going to assume that a 3.2GAA is achievable next year. Jarry looked better at the end, the kids are getting better, and Dubas has committed to improving the defense in front. That alone claws back 24.6, round up and say 25 goals without really even trying.
At F, I think you're going to see a vastly improved group over last year.
Rakell - Crosby - Rust is a wash, assuming they are still here.
McGroarty and Koivunen are going to outperform whatever combination of Bunting, Beavillier and DOC we had trotted out there, and Malkin will benefit from consistent wingers. Easy 10-15 goal improvement there.
Get 10 more goals out of a bottom 6 that now has Novak, a whole season of Tomasino, and youth like Hallander, Ponomarev, Broz etc added instead of the Acciaris and Nietos of the world and you're there.
Top if off with new coach and new system and it's conceivable they get into the wild card.
Yes I could change my mind depending on what Dubas does this summer of course. Based on our roster now and what I project Dubas doing with it, I'm expecting a pretty bad season next year.
I'll believe it when I see it with Jarry. He played well to end the year but it's easy to play well when the games don't matter and there's no pressure. We've seen Jarry fall apart time and time again when the games mean something and I don't expect next year to be any different.
Ned isn't any good either.
Is it possible they both rebound and play better? Sure. Maybe a new coach makes all the difference. Would I bet on it? No.
The other thing is like I mentioned above I wouldn't be surprised if EK gets shipped out. And however many hatchet job articles Yohe writes about EK I still don't see any way that actually helps us overall as a team in the short term. We will be worse both defensively and offensively if EK is moved.
Eh, I'm highly skeptical. People are ready to pencil McGroarty and Koivunen into the top 9 because they had nice ends to the season but I think people forget how f-ing hard it is to succeed in the NHL. There's going to be some growing pains with those two.
Sid and Malkin are also both going to be a year older. Sid looks great at the WC so maybe he just puts up 90 points again. Who knows. I wouldn't bet against him at this point. But eventually there will be some more age related decline there. It's inevitable.
Could also easily see Rakell backsliding in terms of production.
We could see a bottom 6 bump with the likes of Tomasino and Novak and other young players getting a shot. It's certainly possible.
I dunno, on balance I just see a LOT of question marks with this team. Sure it could all come together Washington-style and result in a playoff spot or a near miss. But I could just as easily see it going the other way and I think we're more likely to be bottom 5 than we are to be a playoff team - at least based on the current roster.
Perhaps it's premature to even think about this because Dubas is likely to make some sweeping changes to the roster this off season.
Mind you, way the East is right now, there's not all that much between bottom 5 and playoff team...
They also lost Pettersson. Not sure why the GA would necessarily improve when he's gone and 58 and 65 are continuing to decline
HandshakeLine
A real jerk thing
It's gonna be wild if this team comes out of the gate looking better and playing better than they have in years.
HandshakeLine
A real jerk thing
But I will shed no tears for Marcus "What the f*** did he even look like again" Pettersson. He is dead to me and buried in a pauper's grave.
Dubas will add a decent LD and help Letang. I also see Graves with ST Ivany as the third pair. Pickering and Timmins as well as Timmins plays his normal RD. Karlsson is moved and now the top 9 is better as Koivunen and McGroarty bring needed skill and some juice to the mix. I think the Pens can be a decent team in a weaker Metro.
Sidney the Kidney
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I just found people started to overrate how good he was for us. Sure, he was "good" in the sense he's a solid #4 defensive defenseman who adds very little offense. But people were talking about him like he's an ace shutdown guy like Jaccob Slavin. On an actual contender he's probably the #4 guy (or similar to Dumoulin, play on a top pairing as long as you've got an elite stud like a Makar or Quinn Hughes).
Honour Over Glory
Sully Fired!!! Joyous Day!
- Jan 30, 2012
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I will keep mentioning Sullivan being fired because it still brings a smile to my face to say those words together in any sentence - "Sullivan fired."
Honour Over Glory
Sully Fired!!! Joyous Day!
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Dumba is f***ing atrocious. If Dallas wants to dump his ass, they better be offering a 2nd round pick. Or at worst, a 3rd and Hyry.
How big is your smile gonna be the first time the Rangers blow a 3 goal lead against the Pens trying to play Sully sit on the lead defense?
Sidney the Kidney
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cygnus47
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He had a solid season and a half of #2 play but outside of that yeah. He was definitely on the downswing again when he was traded.
cygnus47
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I agree he's nothing special, but the Penguins right now are lacking even #4 caliber guys.
Empoleon8771
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I'm going to be very happy if Dubas stays out of the UFA market and only makes trades this off-season. Anything more than 1 year deals should only be for RFA aged players.
This is also why I can't wrap my head around anyone advocating for signing any of the non-Marner UFAs this year. The contract will be heinously bad by the time the Penguins are actually competing again, singing Bennett to a 7 year, $8 million AAV deal will be an anchor around their neck in 4 years when they're trying to be good again. I think it's entirely possible that Marner's deal ends up so bad that the Penguins shouldn't sign him, either.
molon labe
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Bennett assuredly is going to be a boat anchor of a contract.
The rest of the lot - it's not that big of a take. We all know GMs are gonna do it- teams will be saddled with absolute 'mid' in their lineups - and combined, it will get gross. 2-3 guys making 7-9 potting 40 points in a good season ....meanwhile the next young lot will come up, go to FA, or fall out of favor with their clubs and the cycle will repeat where those former clubs wonder why oh why can't they have these great players.
If we swing and miss [and I mean swing 'respectively' not with insanity]...I genuinely think Dubas should go to everyone with trade protections, Sid included, and have genuine conversations if they'd rather gracefully go elsewhere by August. If this is gonna be Malkin's last season (not guaranteed yet)...I would hate to see him saddled with gutter trash for 80 games. But maybe we suck and the new coach puts him up there with Sid who knows.
I'm sure that's the plan based on rumors of him and Sullivan not being on the same page in terms of how soon the Pens should compete.
Big Friggin Dummy
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I still don't see any way Marner makes sense, man. I really don't think it's gonna happen, so it's kinda whatever, but he's gonna be like 33 and out of his prime by the time this team's even starting to stand on its own again realistically, and he doesn't strike me as a dude who has any interest or ability to be the guy or a mentor in the bridge years post-Sid/Geno, prior to being rebuilt.
Empoleon8771
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I think the argument for Marner is that he's a star player and won't fall off during the length of his deal, so even if he declines a bit, he's still going to be a top player. Basically adding an equivalent player to a 28 year old Letang, who will still likely be good at ~32 when the team is turning a corner. Marner should be a top player throughout the entirety of his deal even with a 7 year deal, and should still be good for another couple of years after it.
The bigger issue I see there is do you really want to be paying Marner $15 million a year when half of his deal is going to be during a rebuild/retool? And will he still be worth $15 million when the team is ready to turn a corner again in like 2030? You can argue it's silly to differentiate like this, but I feel way differently about that for Marner at $12 million versus Marner at $15 million.
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Big Friggin Dummy
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Yeah, I mean, Marner's not gonna become Harkins or anything but you're burning like 4 or 5 years of that 7 year deal just kinda sitting around waiting to build back up to contention. He's good enough to screw up your draft position alongside Sid until he retires, so that's even more of a waste imo.
Either way, dude's getting huge money, and for sure a full NMC. So if something happens or he wants out to chase a Cup when Sid hangs 'em up in two years, you're f***ed. You've accomplished nothing in terms of the here and now (realistically), you've f***ed over a couple years worth of 1st rounders by likely sitting 15th or so in the draft, and now you've gotta navigate an impossible trade scenario where he's making a huge chunk of money and has all the power as to where he ends up.
Empoleon8771
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Yeah the best way I can put it is this, I wouldn't hesitate to give Marner a 7 year deal at a good AAV that I think he'd still be worth at age ~32 and in the last 3-4 years of his deal. I wouldn't hesitate at all if he's coming in at like $12 million or $12.5 million with that. But LeBrun said earlier today that he's definitely coming in at above $13 million, and I can really see a team going full stupid in free agency and offering him a ridiculous amount. If he's coming in at above $13 or $14 million, I'm seriously questioning why I'm signing Marner now rather than trying to sign another guy like Marner in 2-4 years from now.
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