Salary Cap: '24-'25 Salary Thread: Crosbicles Volume MMXXVI: Sid is Still Goat

[Turin]

I’m pretty sure they want to be competitive by 2027. I don’t think they’ve got a plan to be true Cup contenders by then, but they want to be winning games with the younger players being mentored by Sid. All that depends on free agency/the next two drafts.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

I don’t see FSG or Dubas waiting 5 years whether right or wrong.

I don't know about FSG, but KD IMO doesn't really care about it taking a long time with that contract he has in place. And he probably sold them that idea anyways when they hired him and told him that if he can't fix things in the first year or two, this was inevitable in the long run. I hope something happens and FSG leaves and 66 comes back into the mix of things!

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

is it even possible to truly know the answer to this until we see what happens in July?

More data can always lead to a more accurate result. But based on current evidence its before the next decade starts.

Also what could possibly happen in that timeframe would upend that. Unless they trade everyone for 2029 draft picks?

Moving Karlsson doesnt change it. Even moving Rakell doesnt change it big picture

 

[Randy Butternubs]

I cannot wait for Friday at 3pm.

Same. I'll be tripping balls then.

 

[IcedCapp]

More data can always lead to a more accurate result. But based on current evidence its before the next decade starts.

Also what could possibly happen in that timeframe would upend that. Unless they trade everyone for 2029 draft picks?

Moving Karlsson doesnt change it. Even moving Rakell doesnt change it big picture

if we keep the picks and have a quiet FA, we're going full, long-term rebuild.

If we trade picks and go after big names, we're going for a much quicker turnaround.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I’m pretty sure they want to be competitive by 2027. I don’t think they’ve got a plan to be true Cup contenders by then, but they want to be winning games with the younger players being mentored by Sid. All that depends on free agency/the next two drafts.

I just don't understand why they didn't keep Guentzel or Pettersson if this was their plan. To replace those two, you need to either strike gold on a prospect, trade for them or sign them in UFA. Now if they sign Marner in UFA to replace Guentzel and Chychrun in UFA to replace Pettersson, I can see that, but I think it's a very difficult sell to actually be able to do that.

Not only that, but their actions in FA last year don't suggest they're going to be going crazy in UFA like that either.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't know about FSG, but KD IMO doesn't really care about it taking a long time with that contract he has in place. And he probably sold them that idea anyways when they hired him and told him that if he can't fix things in the first year or two, this was inevitable in the long run. I hope something happens and FSG leaves and 66 comes back into the mix of things!

Dubas is going to be 3 years into his contract next year. If he continues to lose the organization money in years where they expected to be competitive I guarantee you see a shift in his job security.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

The Penguins have plenty of money to have been able to afford both Pettersson and Guentzel. Guentzel's raise was $2 million a year and Pettersson's raise was like $1.5 million a year. How does trading those guys rather than just paying them those pretty minor raises suggest this team is trying to contend anytime soon?

The Penguins could have had the money to pay for Guentzel's raise with simply just not trading for Hayes, Hayes' $3.5 million plus Bunting's $4.5 million would have covered an $8 million extension for Guentzel. If they were trying to contend anytime soon, why does trading a prime aged top line winger for futures make any sense? Same exact thing with Pettersson, they have even more money to keep him with the skyrocketing cap but they didn't even entertain re-signing him.

You're acting like reports of the Penguins being interested in trading a 1st for a young NHL player somehow counts for more than the Penguins literally trading prime aged players they had the money to keep for that 1st in the first place.

It's really this simple: if the Penguins planned on contending before 2028, Guentzel and Pettersson would still be here. They would have been re-signed rather than be traded for futures.

Goal post moved to 2028?

Thanks for agreeing with me. Rackell is under contract in 2028. Which is my entire point.

Also as an aside, knowing you need to rebuild (trading ufas)Doesnt mean that aim of that rebuild has to be 6 years later. If anything the return for Guentzel soeaks to the timeframe they are looking at. Again so maybe you listen this time, nooot the 2030s

 

[Turin]

I know Rust is an organizational darling but he’s arguably somebody the Pens should look to trade more than Rakell. What are the odds he falls off hard the next couple seasons? 50/50? 70/30. It’s high with his age, style and injury history.

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I’m pretty sure they want to be competitive by 2027. I don’t think they’ve got a plan to be true Cup contenders by then, but they want to be winning games with the younger players being mentored by Sid. All that depends on free agency/the next two drafts.

Unless some of the current prospects really overshoot their current projections I’d hope we are in year one of three of a rebuild. Would personally try to compile picks/prospects and stink it up enough to get high (top 3-5) picks in the next 3 drafts in 2025, 2026, 2027.

Then immediately attempt to be competitive in 2027-28.

I do think you need top picks, and need to hit on them. So you do gotta be bad. But I don’t think you want to be a wasteland of a bottom 5 team for longer than 3 years.

Could feasibly accelerate it if we randomly get Faber, McAvoy, Wyatt Johnson type lucky and land a 1D or 1C outside of the top 5 picks.

 

[Turin]

I just don't understand why they didn't keep Guentzel or Pettersson if this was their plan. To replace those two, you need to either strike gold on a prospect, trade for them or sign them in UFA. Now if they sign Marner in UFA to replace Guentzel and Chychrun in UFA to replace Pettersson, I can see that, but I think it's a very difficult sell to actually be able to do that.

Not only that, but their actions in FA last year don't suggest they're going to be going crazy in UFA like that either.

Because they sucked with Guentzel and Pettersson and needed assets. Like I said they’re not trying to win the Cup in 2027 i think they are trying to have the foundation laid by them where impactful prospects are in the league concurrently with Sidney Crosby.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

I know Rust is an organizational darling but he’s arguably somebody the Pens should look to trade more than Rakell. What are the odds he falls off hard the next couple seasons? 50/50? 70/30. It’s high with his age, style and injury history.

Rust is the type of player you want come playoff time. I have no doubt he will be traded in the long run. His NTC is done after this season, so the next 3 years I expect management to ask him where he would like to go!!

 

[Empoleon8771]

Goal post moved to 2028?

Thanks for agreeing with me. Rackell is under contract in 2028. Which is my entire point.

Also as an aside, knowing you need to rebuild (trading ufas)Doesnt mean that aim of that rebuild has to be 6 years later. If anything the return for Guentzel soeaks to the timeframe they are looking at. Again so maybe you listen this time, nooot the 2030s

Your initial post:

3. Rackell WILL still be on this contract when they plan to be competitive.

I'm not moving the goalposts. I'm still responding to your initial claim that Rakell will still be on this contract when they plan to be competitive. Rakell's contract expires after the 2027-2028 season. If that was actually the case, they wouldn't have traded Pettersson and Guentzel for futures rather than re-signing them, when they had the money to keep them and they're extremely difficult (more with Guentzel) to replace.

 

[WheresRamziAbid]

if we keep the picks and have a quiet FA, we're going full, long-term rebuild.

If we trade picks and go after big names, we're going for a much quicker turnaround.

I still dont think that necessarily means its post 2030 goal.

This summers picks certainly could fit an accelerated window depending on a variety of factors. Also not spending big this summer doesnt necessarily point to any long term rebuild. I mean we know theyre gonna suck next year. The idea might be to really suck for the packed 2016 draft and spend like theyre on shore leave next year or through hit ticket trade acquisitions.

 

[eXile3]

Dubas is going to be 3 years into his contract next year. If he continues to lose the organization money in years where they expected to be competitive I guarantee you see a shift in his job security.

If Mike Sullivan can talk them into keeping him several years past his expiration date I don’t doubt Dubas can as well.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Because they sucked with Guentzel and Pettersson and needed assets. Like I said they’re not trying to win the Cup in 2027 i think they are trying to have the foundation laid by them where impactful prospects are in the league concurrently with Sidney Crosby.

I don't think there is any way that the prospects this team needs are ready by the 2027-2028 season for this team to be competitive based on those prospects.

You basically have to hit on big fishes via trades or UFA for that idea to even be possible. Like I said, you basically need to pull off Marner and Chychrun in UFA to replace Guentzel and Pettersson while also having those prospects take pretty quick jumps to notable contributors. And at that point, if you were relying on that strategy you should have just kept Guentzel and Pettersson when you had them.

 

[IcedCapp]

I still dont think that necessarily means its post 2030 goal.

This summers picks certainly could fit an accelerated window depending on a variety of factors. Also not spending big this summer doesnt necessarily point to any long term rebuild. I mean we know theyre gonna suck next year. The idea might be to really suck for the packed 2016 draft and spend like theyre on shore leave next year or through hit ticket trade acquisitions.

i'm not hung up on dates so much as full rebuild v re-tool/quick turnaround. Chicago got Bedard but I don't think they're any closer to truly competing. You can set a date for yourself, but the date is just based around your philosophy.

 

[BusinessGoose]

For the foreseeable future, the most important time of year for the Penguins isn't the postseason

It's the time before the season when season ticket packages go on sale

They just need to sell enough people on "the future is bright" and carry on with the "aw shucks maybe next year" by December...

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I don't think there is any way that the prospects this team needs are ready by the 2027-2028 season for this team to be competitive based on those prospects.

Eh throw a couple nice draft picks in here and a couple prospects developing well and I think it’s entirely plausible that in 2027-28 they are a similar team in the standings to the Pens in 2022-23 and 2023-24. But it’s a lot more positive to hang around the WC2 spot when it’s young guys learning and growing rather than vets underperforming/falling off.

Will take some picks hitting and prospects developing well but if you are management you kinda have to bank on doing that well. If you are in business of selling shoes you expect to sell shoes well. If you’re in the business of scouting, drafting and developing you expect to do it well.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

For the foreseeable future, the most important time of year for the Penguins isn't the postseason

It's the time before the season when season ticket packages go on sale

They just need to sell enough people on "the future is bright" and carry on with the "aw shucks maybe next year" by December...

and they will have Sid-Geno and Letang hand deliver them!!! Win win people will keep buying!!

 

[Empoleon8771]

Unless some of the current prospects really overshoot their current projections I’d hope we are in year one of three of a rebuild. Would personally try to compile picks/prospects and stink it up enough to get high (top 3-5) picks in the next 3 drafts in 2025, 2026, 2027.

Then immediately attempt to be competitive in 2027-28.

I do think you need top picks, and need to hit on them. So you do gotta be bad. But I don’t think you want to be a wasteland of a bottom 5 team for longer than 3 years.

Could feasibly accelerate it if we randomly get Faber, McAvoy, Wyatt Johnson type lucky and land a 1D or 1C outside of the top 5 picks.

I think my concern with this plan is how quickly are those top drafted young guys going to be ready to contribute at a level that makes them legitimate "core" pieces? Even with #1 picks, it tends to take 2 or 3 years for those guys to really hit their strides in the NHL.

Even if you assume the Penguins get lucky and hit a #1 pick in 2026, that leaves you with say Frondell in 2025, McKenna in 2026 and let's say another #5 pick in 2027. Is that plus Crosby and their current prospect pool enough to make a competitive team? I don't think so, and that even assumes Crosby will be back for the 2027-2028 season.

Malkin is retiring by then, Letang is declining more and Karlsson and Rakell will most likely be traded. Even if Crosby is back, I still think this team would be a good bit off from a playoff team with McKenna, Frondell, another top-5 pick in 2027 and their current prospect pool.

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

Eh throw a couple nice draft picks in here and a couple prospects developing well and I think it’s entirely plausible that in 2027-28 they are a similar team in the standings to the Pens in 2022-23 and 2023-24. But it’s a lot more positive to hang around the WC2 spot when it’s young guys learning and growing rather than vets underperforming/falling off.

Will take some picks hitting and prospects developing well but if you are management you kinda have to bank on doing that well. If you are in business of selling shoes you expect to sell shoes well. If you’re in the business of scouting, drafting and developing you expect to do it well.

Who am I to say it's impossible, heck I agree with you guys as well that it's very possible to be competitive again for that time frame, but let's face it, the only way it happens is if the next 2 years we draft really high and a " sure " NHL prospect and that we are able to bring in 3-4 solid UFA's signings, like starting with Marner and Chychrun this summer...

 

[CheckingLineCenter]

I think my concern with this plan is how quickly are those top drafted young guys going to be ready to contribute at a level that makes them legitimate "core" pieces? Even with #1 picks, it tends to take 2 or 3 years for those guys to really hit their strides in the NHL.

Even if you assume the Penguins get lucky and hit a #1 pick in 2026, that leaves you with say Frondell in 2025, McKenna in 2026 and let's say another #5 pick in 2027. Is that plus Crosby and their current prospect pool enough to make a competitive team? I don't think so, and that even assumes Crosby will be back for the 2027-2028 season.

Malkin is retiring by then, Letang is declining more and Karlsson and Rakell will most likely be traded. Even if Crosby is back, I still think this team would be a good bit off from a playoff team with McKenna, Frondell, another top-5 pick in 2027 and their current prospect pool.

Eh you’d theoretically have some pieces around them and decent goaltending but you don’t need those high picks performing at a “core” level and completely carrying the squad — just want to be good enough to hang around a playoff spot all year

It’s nice to make playoffs but I think the key is simply being competitive and playing meaningful games all season.

Is it hopeful to think they can do that on the back of young players by 27-28? Sure. But not like ridiculous or completely implausible. Would call it an admirable goal to set.

 

[Ulf5]

 

[Le Magnifique 66]

I just looked at our UFA's to be after next season, boy is that a big year!!
Malkin, Bunting, Glass, Lizotte, Acciari, Hayes, Deshairnais and Neds!!

Not all superstars, but a really nice haul can be had especially if Bunting has a good season