Salary Cap: '24-'25 Salary Thread: Crosbicles Volume MMXXV - Poolman and Poolparty?!?

[IcedCapp]

Koivunen at least will never see a Penguins uniform no matter how good he does at the AHL level so long as Mike Sullivan is behind the bench.

I mean... OK he might. For like 5 minutes on the 4th line with a freshly re-signed Noel Acciari.

"What about Koivunen, Mike?"

"I got that taken care of last year, just a 7-day course of antibiotics"

 

[Malkinstheman]

isn't there a chance that at least two of those guys are in our top-9 next year? Or even by the end of this year? I haven't been paying SUPER close attention, but I feel like I've seen enough to think two of them are comfortably going to fail to earn Sully's trust in the next 12 months

Most of the guys from the Guentzel trade have been trending very well. Pono and Koivunen have been great in the AHL this year. Pono will likely carve out a career as a third line center. The main thing holding Koivunen back will be his skating so we need to see how he looks in the NHL. Oh and theres Brunicke whos looked excellent in Juniors and at this seasons training camp

 

[IcedCapp]

Koivunen and Brunicke were both pieces in the Guentzel deal and I feel like both of those guys are looking extremely good right now.

Brunicke nearly made the Penguins out of camp this year and Koivunen is the 2nd highest rookie scorer in the AHL this year.

This is why I kinda checked out on the criticism last year. If we get two top-9 players out of the deal, especially if one of them is a top-6 guy, how the f*** is that worse than a 1st? How is that a bad deal? Two NHL players for an expiring that you weren't going to extend?

People are just not objective about these things and the "Dubas is a dumbass" stuff is out of control to the point that it's hard to discuss anything, even though there are definitely things he legitimately deserves criticism for

 

[Empoleon8771]

This is why I kinda checked out on the criticism last year. If we get two top-9 players out of the deal, especially if one of them is a top-6 guy, how the f*** is that worse than a 1st? How is that a bad deal? Two NHL players for an expiring that you weren't going to extend?

People are just not objective about these things and the "Dubas is a dumbass" stuff is out of control to the point that it's hard to discuss anything, even though there are definitely things he legitimately deserves criticism for

Yeah especially considering the analysis Seravalli gave was "they hurt their playoff chances" and "they didn't get a 1st". It's just a lazy analysis from a guy who has shit on Dubas for years.

It's just annoying because you can extremely easy argue that Dubas had a crap first year with the Penguins, but mentioning the Guentzel trade as one of those reasons is just dumb.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Honestly the Jake trade is one of the few things so far I have not rolled my eyes at Dubas over.

Like... is it ideal? No. Was that about all the situation was likely to proffer up in value? Probably, yeah. Did Jake need to go one way or the other? Also yes.

It sucks that Jake tanked his value but there it is. I would have been happy in some ways had he stayed since it would mean we would not be reaching for the eye bleach every time L2 hopped over the boards this season but whatever. It was the right move.

 

[IcedCapp]

Yeah especially considering the analysis Seravalli gave was "they hurt their playoff chances" and "they didn't get a 1st". It's just a lazy analysis from a guy who has shit on Dubas for years.

It's just annoying because you can extremely easy argue that Dubas had a crap first year with the Penguins, but mentioning the Guentzel trade as one of those reasons is just dumb.

funny how the actual issues with this team (the abysmal bottom-6, which is absolutely his fault) are issues that his media detractors never bring up. Media coverage is so vapid and formulaic

 

[Empoleon8771]

Also I just read up his report on the Smith trade:

June 28, 2023: In his first trade, Dubas bailed out the Vegas Golden Knights and traded a third-round pick in exchange for forward Reilly Smith, who had two years remaining at a full $5 million per year. After a below-average season in which Smith’s goal production was cut in half, Dubas traded Smith to the New York Rangers on July 1, 2024 for a pick one round higher in the 2027 (!) Draft that might not help the Penguins until 2030. In addition, Dubas added $1.25 million in dead space to the Penguins’ books by retaining 25 percent on Smith.

So getting a year out of Smith and upgrading from a 2024 3rd to a 2027 2nd is bad because....the Penguins had to retain money for a year and the pick is a few years later? What?

 

[Sideline]

Also I just read up his report on the Smith trade:



So getting a year out of Smith and upgrading from a 2024 3rd to a 2027 2nd is bad because....the Penguins had to retain money for a year and the pick is a few years later? What?

"Dubas sucks because he added a guy that played a top 6 role on the Cup championship team for a 3rd, but he didn't fit and he ended up with a 2nd," is certainly a take.

 

[Empoleon8771]

"Dubas sucks because he added a guy that played a top 6 role on the Cup championship team for a 3rd, but he didn't fit and he ended up with a 2nd," is certainly a take.

Yeah and he uses a ton of biased representation of that deal as well. He uses negative language to say guys like Smith and Karlsson had drops in production from what they did the year before, but doesn't actually provide how they produced.

Here's how the Smith trade went:

1. The Penguins traded a 2024 3rd for Smith
2. Smith put up 13 goals and 40 points in 76 games for the Penguins.
3. The Penguins trade Smith with $1.25 million in retention to the Rangers for a 2027 2nd.

How Seravalli frames that is:

1. The Penguins traded a 3rd for Smith.
2. Smith had a below average season where his goal production was cut in half.
3. The Penguins then traded Smith for a pick that is "one round higher in 2027 (!) that won't help the Penguins until 2030" and added $1.25 million in dead cap space.

It is so obviously written with an agenda that it reads like a biased HFBoards post. Calling a second rounder "a pick that is one round higher" is obviously intentional, because clearly saying "he traded a 3rd for a 2nd" makes Dubas look good. Same thing with adding the exclamation point after 2027 and saying "the pick won't help the Penguins until 2030".

He does the same thing with Karlsson, he mentions that Karlsson's production dropped by 45 points (rather than saying he had 55 points in 82 games and had a pretty decent year) and mentions the Sharks got a prospect massively producing from the deal (which isn't even true, the Sharks traded the Penguins 1st to draft Dickinson).

 

[Khelandros]

This is why I kinda checked out on the criticism last year. If we get two top-9 players out of the deal, especially if one of them is a top-6 guy, how the f*** is that worse than a 1st? How is that a bad deal? Two NHL players for an expiring that you weren't going to extend?

People are just not objective about these things and the "Dubas is a dumbass" stuff is out of control to the point that it's hard to discuss anything, even though there are definitely things he legitimately deserves criticism for

Honestly the Jake trade is one of the few things so far I have not rolled my eyes at Dubas over.

Like... is it ideal? No. Was that about all the situation was likely to proffer up in value? Probably, yeah. Did Jake need to go one way or the other? Also yes.

It sucks that Jake tanked his value but there it is. I would have been happy in some ways had he stayed since it would mean we would not be reaching for the eye bleach every time L2 hopped over the boards this season but whatever. It was the right move.

Why no mention of the leading PP goal scorer that was also involved?

 

[IcedCapp]

Why no mention of the leading PP goal scorer that was also involved?

Good call. Bunting is a lightning rod on this board, I'm not sure how the majority view him, but he's definitely an NHL-caliber top-6F, so again, it's hard for me to shit on that trade too much

 

[Malkinstheman]

Are we sure Serevalli isn't Gurgles? Alot of that article is almost word for word stuff that Gurgles has been complaining about since Dubas got here lol

 

[Randy Butternubs]

Koivunen and Brunicke were both pieces in the Guentzel deal and I feel like both of those guys are looking extremely good right now.

Brunicke nearly made the Penguins out of camp this year and Koivunen is the 2nd highest rookie scorer in the AHL this year.

Not sure how much value there is to "almost made the team out of camp". They could have just been rewarding him for a good display. Heck, Biz Nasty almost made the team out of camp once upon a time.

 

[BlindWillyMcHurt]

Why no mention of the leading PP goal scorer that was also involved?

Yes. There is also Bunting.

And proud we are of all of them.

 

[eXile3]

It’s unlikely we’ll know if the Jake trade was a good one until years down the road.

 

[Darren McCord]

I'll allow some of this, the Oilers were 2-7 at the time, Toronto was 5 games into the season, but they were 4-1 and the same with Carolina being 3-2. Dallas was like 8-6. Caps were the only top team with term under belt at 10-3.

His only wins were Det, Buf and Washington.

His GAA is the highest of the 3 at 3.60, Ned. at 3.40 and then Jarry at 3.31 from his 6.0 to start off the year.

There's clearly no winner to be had behind this team.

I don’t care about GA as much as SV when the team has been allowing like 20 shots against.

Jarry has a .886
Blomqvist has a .904

Blomqvist is 18th in the league in SV %
Jarry is 44th
Ned is 46th

Also the team was playing way worse at the beginning of the year.

 

[SEALBound]

The "no first for Jake" is such a lazy argument and lacks so much context that it's practically a litmus test for "I'm f***ing idiot".

A 1st would have be been nice but 2nd was 42nd overall. You're talking the difference in what, maybe 15 slots or so? And if you look at the final draft rankings, there were only two things there was consensus on: 1. Celebrini is 1st ov. 2. There is literally no consensus after that.

Draft rankings were absolutely wild and varied greatly. Some had Mac Swanson (our 7th rounder) as a 2nd/3rd round talent. A lot of scouts basically said the top 10 was good and from 11 to 50, you're getting the same quality player. So of all the drafts where 28 vs 42 ov doesn't matter a ton...it was that draft. Plus, I'm very happy with Brunicke so, whatever.

 

[Empoleon8771]

It’s unlikely we’ll know if the Jake trade was a good one until years down the road.

I think you're right but I also think it's early enough that we can say that it's looking pretty good for the Penguins right now.

Between Bunting's performance with the Penguins (19 goals and 44 points in 65 games) and Koivunen and Brunicke looking extremely promising as prospects, I feel like you'd have to make a pretty convincing argument for why the deal is looking bad for the Penguins right now.

This also isn't a part of the Guentzel deal, but Rakell being able to replace like 85% of Guentzel's production by sliding up onto L1 is also a factor to consider.

 

[SEALBound]

Are we sure Serevalli isn't Gurgles? Alot of that article is almost word for word stuff that Gurgles has been complaining about since Dubas got here lol

Nah, Gurgs says he works in HR out in California.

So pick your position - 70yo looking 35yo Serevalli or Toby.

 

[Duffy13]

Dammit Janet!!!

I swear to God, if he also fires Sully, and trades basically everyone who is ass.... What am I going to bitch about then?!?!

Anyways, this was bound to happen, really wish Jarry could have played competent enough to have earned a trade instead of a demotion. It sucks that he will be actually blocking a young goalie from essential playing time.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Just to further expand on that Rakell point, just comparing last year and this year through 1/15:

Guentzel: 19 goals and 46 points in 42 games
Rust: 11 goals and 25 points in 29 games
Rakell: 5 goals and 16 points in 30 games

Total: 35 goals and 87 points in 101 games, pace of 28 goals and 71 points per 82 games per player

Rakell: 18 goals and 38 points in 46 games
Rust: 17 goals and 34 points in 39 games
Bunting: 13 goals and 25 points in 44 games

Total: 48 goals and 97 points in 129 games, pace of 30 goals and 62 points per 82 games per player

I know this isn't an apples to apples comparison, namely with Bunting getting a lot of PP points (8 goals and 12 points on the PP this year) while the Penguins PP last year sucked. Looking purely at 5v5 and I bet the winger group last year comes out further ahead than the 8 point difference here. That said, you're getting similar levels of production out of your top-3 wingers despite trading the clearly best winger here. It would be silly to say that they didn't get worse by trading Guentzel, but the lost was pretty minimized with Rakell exploding on L1 and Bunting replacing Rakell on L2.

Combine this with the performances of the futures the Penguins got with Guentzel, and I don't really see an argument for how the Guentzel deal has been bad for the Penguins so far. It can still go a lot of ways, both good (they trade Bunting for a nice return and Koivunen and Brunicke become good top-9 F/top-4 D caliber players) and bad (all the prospects end up duds and they get a shitty return for Bunting).

 

[Turin]

for some reason there is smoke CHI might claim him.

Please Kyle (Davidson)

Please bro

Please

 

[Turin]

Koivunen and Brunicke were both pieces in the Guentzel deal and I feel like both of those guys are looking extremely good right now.

Brunicke nearly made the Penguins out of camp this year and Koivunen is the 2nd highest rookie scorer in the AHL this year.

Yea and Ponomarev should be in the NHL. It was a good trade.

You can say Dubas first offseason was ass without making stuff up to criticize him. And I still standbys the Karlsson trade, Pens didn’t lose much there and Karlsson has been good enough for it to have been a logical chance. And Reilly Smith didn’t work but they got back better value for him than they trade for him, did they not? Eller was also good. It’s just Jarry and Graves which are the two big sins. And not firing Reirden last year.

 

[Ugene Magic]

I don’t care about GA as much as SV when the team has been allowing like 20 shots against.

Jarry has a .886
Blomqvist has a .904

Blomqvist is 18th in the league in SV %
Jarry is 44th
Ned is 46th

Also the team was playing way worse at the beginning of the year.

25 goals in 7-1/4 games still resonates being bad, and the team has played pretty bad throughout.
Shot counts are meaningless when the total goals count more.

So, 14 more games of Blom should be in the 75 GA range. Since that's what actually matters to winning and losing.

A goalie could have a .920 and give up 3 or 4 goals. That's still 3 or 4 goals in a single game.

Blom vs. Edmonton 50 SA and 4 GA = .920 save percentage

Save percentage means nothing in this stance. He has only 2 games where he kept the score to 2 and under. Both being wins. For a team that gives up 3.76goals a game it really doesn't help he's given up 3 to 4 in the other 5-1/4 games.

 

[Darren McCord]

25 goals in 7-1/4 games still resonates being bad, and the team has played pretty bad throughout.
Shot counts are meaningless when the total goals count more.

So, 14 more games of Blom should be in the 75 GA range. Since that's what actually matters to winning and losing.

A goalie could have a .920 and give up 3 or 4 goals. That's still 3 or 4 goals in a single game.

Blom vs. Edmonton 50 SA and 4 GA = .920 save percentage

Save percentage means nothing in this stance. He has only 2 games where he kept the score to 2 and under. Both being wins. For a team that gives up 3.76goals a game it really doesn't help he's given up 3 to 4 in the other 5-1/4 games.

Context still matters. Jarry had a 3.88 when Blomqvist was playing.

The team started playing better so Jarrys GA got a little better but his save % barely changed.

Blomqvist was better when they were both up. Let see how he does with the team playing better than last time he was with them.