Rumor: 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

[hockeyfish]

I'd be a little hesitant using this as a basis. First off, many great regular season teams don't hold up in the playoffs. Secondly, the Avs have faced an absurdly easy schedule (most places rate it 28th-32nd) and you can ride top players and hot steaks to wins... over time and with elevated competition that tends to balance out. The Avs as a whole, win pretty much every game against non-playoff teams (sans Arizona), but struggle against the better teams.

As an example, the Avs have faced teams currently in a playoff spot 12 times since Jan 1, their record is 6-6 (one of the 6 wins was in a shootout one of the losses was in OT) or a .541 points percentage. This is actually an improvement compared to the rest of the year... they went 1-4 in December. 3-3 in November. When the competition elevates, the Avs have a harder time patching the holes in the lineup. Naturally as they go into the playoffs and face those better teams, it is going to be even more difficult.

Yep. Comes down to depth as always. Top teams are better equiped to handle Mack, and when they do, Avs will struggle.

 

[Ararana]

Yep. Comes down to depth as always. Top teams are better equiped to handle Mack, and when they do, Avs will struggle.

Game planning becomes a lot easier when you are dealing with a single top six center.

 

[Avsfan1921]

You clearly didn't read. I said, he would have been a good signing, had we not had massive 2nd line issues. But since we have massive 2nd line issues, he was a terrible signing and complete waste of money. His money could be allocated towards 2nd line help.

You can't spend money to fix small holes when there is a massive leak.

No, I read it clearly. But that contract does not hinder them from acquiring anything, including a 2c. Replacing Parise with a call-up type player does nothing. It has absolutely no bearing on a 2c trade. It would save 75k to replace him with a league min contract and that’s it. That’s not enough to call out this signing as “horrible” and the 2c hole would still be there regardless of who’s in his spot.

You also can’t say it’s a waste solely on the fact that 2c hasn’t been fixed until the deadline passes. Maybe they don’t fill the 2c spot, likely even, but saying Parise is a horrible signing because we definitively won’t fix it is not debating in good faith. If the time passes and it’s not fixed, then sure you could say it was a waste, but horrible? That’s a stretch that doesn’t make sense.

 

[Balthazar]

We gotta accept that we'll be significantly weaker than most contenders at C post-deadline. Our defense is supposed to make up for it.

That's why Henrique wouldn't be a huge disaster IMO. If he can win faceoffs and do well with guys like Nuke and Lehky we might be OK (as long as the rest of the team plays well).

He's not that much better than JTC but Colton is much better than whoever was playing 3C in the last playoff run. Our 3rd line kicks ass compared to last year.

 

[Avs44]

We gotta accept that we'll be significantly weaker than most contenders at C post-deadline. Our defense is supposed to make up for it.

That's why Henrique wouldn't be a huge disaster IMO. If he can win faceoffs and do well with guys like Nuke and Lehky we might be OK (as long as the rest of the team plays well).

He's not that much better than JTC but Colton is much better than whoever was playing 3C in the last playoff run. Our 3rd line kicks ass compared to last year.

Unfortunately, many of the advantages we are supposed to have with our talent on defense our wiped out by Georgiev...now tied for the 34th best save percentage in the NHL; the 27th best GAA; the 37th best even strength save percentage; and, amongst goalies with at least 20 starts, a save percentage on "high danger" shot attempts that ranks 33rd...

Come playoffs, the Avs need a top six that is going to be capable of both outscoring some of their problems and controlling the flow of play. Having top quality depth down the middle is really key to that latter point...

 

[Balthazar]

Unfortunately, many of the advantages we are supposed to have with our talent on defense our wiped out by Georgiev...now tied for the 34th best save percentage in the NHL; the 27th best GAA; the 37th best even strength save percentage; and, amongst goalies with at least 20 starts, a save percentage on "high danger" shot attempts that ranks 33rd...

Come playoffs, the Avs need a top six that is going to be capable of outscoring some of their problems.

Goalies are weird and I've witnessed many of them over the years shitting the bed when they knew that there's no other capable goalie to relieve them in case it didn't go well. It adds a lot of pressure on them. Georgiev knows that he's plan A, B and C at the moment.

I won't be surprised if Georgiev gets his shit together as soon as we get a real backup.

 

[Alienblood]

Nobody will convince me that most names being brought up will not move the needle.

Let's take Henrique for example. He might be playing W mostly nowadays but he can still play C. Point-wise a lone we go from .36 PPG to .67 PPG from Ryjo to him. He is also certainly better than Ryjo on defense when Ryjo is dead tired after only a 15 secs shift.

The biggest improvement though that everybody forgets is TOI distribution. That alone would be huge for this team. Suddenly we can have a proper 2nd line that can take important minutes away from the top guys. Everybody else also get push down to more comfortable TOI. Having our top line playing 20-21 minutes versus 24-25 is huge not only offensively but defensively as well. They would be more capable of putting more pressure offensively and also defend better being less tired.

Henrique was just an example but it also goes for guys like Frost, Lawton, etc. Would that be enough to win another SC?...maybe not. We would definitely need at least a 90%-Landy and a healthy Nuke (both physically and mentally). We would also need our top guys to stay healthy. Is it too much to expect? Probably but at least it is giving us a much better chance than playing Ryjo even at 4C. Even Colton/Laughton as 2C and 3C would be better than having Ryjo in the lineup just skating around. So like I said nobody will convince me it won't move the needle.

With that said just like everybody else I would prefer a better option like Mitts, Nelson etc. but if a trade like that is not there to be made doing something is better than keeping Ryjo in the lineup.

And I know I have been making annoying posts about Drouin at 2C but even that and getting a top-6 W would be a huge improvement on what we have now. Just about ANYTHING would move the needle.

I wouldn't mind trying Drouin at C

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I'd be a little hesitant using this as a basis. First off, many great regular season teams don't hold up in the playoffs. Secondly, the Avs have faced an absurdly easy schedule (most places rate it 28th-32nd) and you can ride top players and hot steaks to wins... over time and with elevated competition that tends to balance out. The Avs as a whole, win pretty much every game against non-playoff teams (sans Arizona), but struggle against the better teams.

As an example, the Avs have faced teams currently in a playoff spot 12 times since Jan 1, their record is 6-6 (one of the 6 wins was in a shootout one of the losses was in OT) or a .541 points percentage. This is actually an improvement compared to the rest of the year... they went 1-4 in December. 3-3 in November. When the competition elevates, the Avs have a harder time patching the holes in the lineup. Naturally as they go into the playoffs and face those better teams, it is going to be even more difficult.

We just went through a pretty difficult month of Jan and we came out of it 9-3.

I wouldn't mind trying Drouin at C

You better go hide right now. People are coming for you.

 

[Anders Cain]

Drouin. Is. Not. A. Center......

It's been tried and failed lol

 

[Avs44]

Goalies are weird and I've witnessed many of them over the years shitting the bed when they knew that there's no other capable goalie to relieve them in case it didn't go well. It adds a lot of pressure on them. Georgiev knows that he's plan A, B and C at the moment.

I won't be surprised if Georgiev gets his shit together as soon as we get a real backup.

Maybe...we'll see if we get one...but Georgiev didn't seem to like (or handle) having competition in New York.

 

[henchman21]

We gotta accept that we'll be significantly weaker than most contenders at C post-deadline. Our defense is supposed to make up for it.

That's why Henrique wouldn't be a huge disaster IMO. If he can win faceoffs and do well with guys like Nuke and Lehky we might be OK (as long as the rest of the team plays well).

He's not that much better than JTC but Colton is much better than whoever was playing 3C in the last playoff run. Our 3rd line kicks ass compared to last year.

Avs will certainly be weaker at center. Defense making up for it probably depends on the team.

I don't know about Henrique being enough... he's probably the absolute bare minimum. The probably with him being with Lehky or Nuke is there is not a real offensive driver to that line. Henrique and Lehky certainly aren't... and Nuke has shown he's really best offensively when paired with a guy who drives at a high level. If he's the top driver, it tends to be rather meh offensively.

I don't think Eller was bad with the Avs... not great or ideal certainly. But Eller-LOC is roughly equivalent to Colton-LOC. Eller is certainly better defensively, and Colton offensively. Some of the difficulty in comparision here is the Avs threw a lot of shit at the wall against Seattle. Newhook and ERod both got time with Eller on the third line.

This is kind moot though... even if that advances past Seattle/whoever the Avs play this year, there are 3 more rounds to go. At some point the Avs are likely to face a team that can matchup/shutdown MacK while 2/3 of the other lines have a decided advantage. Avs have to prove they can win those sorts of games.

Goalies are weird and I've witnessed many of them over the years shitting the bed when they knew that there's no other capable goalie to relieve them in case it didn't go well. It adds a lot of pressure on them. Georgiev knows that he's plan A, B and C at the moment.

I won't be surprised if Georgiev gets his shit together as soon as we get a real backup.

Given George's history, I'd say there is a much greater chance of him blowing up in a bad way if he's challenged in net.

 

[henchman21]

We just went through a pretty difficult month of Jan and we came out of it 9-2.


You better go hide right now. People are coming for you.

9-3... but they did play well in January. Feb has been 2-5. The Avs haven't shown they can beat playoff teams with a high degree of regularity. That has to change. Their place in the standings is largely due to them beating up on bad teams and using the last change at home quite well.

 

[sethro109]

A winger who's good at faceoffs might be an intriguing add. Compher got way too much ice time in the playoffs last year because he would take offensive zone draws with MacK and Mikko. Adding someone that's more offensive minded and can take a draw wouldn't be terrible. Ideally that would be our 2C, but if we can't get a 2C that can takes draws, I could see that helping a bunch. 2C is still a must though. If Cmac can't land a C he has to be fired.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

9-3... but they did play well in January. Feb has been 2-5. The Avs haven't shown they can beat playoff teams with a high degree of regularity. That has to change. Their place in the standings is largely due to them beating up on bad teams and using the last change at home quite well.

Yeah I meant to write 9-3.
All teams go through bad stretches. They were also missing Nuke for all of those and LOC for three of them. And they always play bad when they come back from long breaks. I'm not worry.

We gotta accept that we'll be significantly weaker than most contenders at C post-deadline. Our defense is supposed to make up for it.

That's why Henrique wouldn't be a huge disaster IMO. If he can win faceoffs and do well with guys like Nuke and Lehky we might be OK (as long as the rest of the team plays well).

He's not that much better than JTC but Colton is much better than whoever was playing 3C in the last playoff run. Our 3rd line kicks ass compared to last year.

It wouldn't be hard for Henrique to do better than what JTC did in the playoffs.

 

[henchman21]

Yeah I meant to write 9-3.
All teams go through bad stretches. They were also missing Nuke for all of those and LOC for three of them. And they always play bad when they come back from long breaks. I'm not worry.


It wouldn't be hard for Henrique to do better than what JTC did in the playoffs.

They had Nuke and LOC for Nov and December which didn't go fantastically against good teams either... without a break. It is pretty clear this year that when the Avs face good teams, they have a much tougher time. They can beat up bad teams with ease because one of MacK or Makar is likely to go off. Playing a good team though, if they can keep MacK and Makar semi contained, they end up having a good shot at winning. Odds are pretty high that will be most games in the playoffs.

More or less I think the record is a mirage. It is a result of playing the top guys a ton, soft schedule, and a couple heaters by Makar and MacK. Those point to an unsustainability when facing top teams where the Avs need to be shoring up the weaknesses.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

Drouin. Is. Not. A. Center......

It's been tried and failed lol

When it was tried it was as the #1C in Montreal which means better coverage against him and much more pressure on him playing in Montreal. It has not been tried as 2C and especially behind Mack. I think it is worth trying....again assuming he is OK with it. If he is not then you forget about it. Iy costs nothing trying it and if it works you solve your biggest hole A W is much easier and cheaper to find at the TDL. The Avs can't keep him as a W because they need to fill the 2C with that money. As a C though they could keep him as it would fix the 2C. He could most likely be kept for pretty cheap (4-5M) compare to other options like Mitts. It also gives time to Ritchie to get ready and take over at 2C.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

They had Nuke and LOC for Nov and December which didn't go fantastically against good teams either... without a break. It is pretty clear this year that when the Avs face good teams, they have a much tougher time. They can beat up bad teams with ease because one of MacK or Makar is likely to go off. Playing a good team though, if they can keep MacK and Makar semi contained, they end up having a good shot at winning. Odds are pretty high that will be most games in the playoffs.

More or less I think the record is a mirage. It is a result of playing the top guys a ton, soft schedule, and a couple heaters by Makar and MacK. Those point to an unsustainability when facing top teams where the Avs need to be shoring up the weaknesses.

But they didn't have Lehky in Nov-Dec. That was a point I made a few days ago. All through the season the Avs have missed at least 2 of their best defensive forwards at the same time which IMO is affecting the team defense a lot more than people think...along with George not doing well also. Three of those four defensive forwards are also in their top-6 so they were losing lots of offense as well. You get George back at around .910 SV% and the record would be quite different.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

That's also not a Cup winning lineup either (and odds are high injuries happen).

I think there are some differences of expectations. My opinion is that it is pretty much Cup or bust right now. It is unrealistic to win a Cup every year, but putting the team in the best possible position should be the expectation. If a GM fails to do that, IMO it should be looked at as a failure. Even if the team fails after the moves, if the GM is doing what he can to give the best shot, that is all you can reasonably ask.

Now if people are happy with a first round win, maybe a 2nd round where the team gets boat raced in the conference finals. Henrique might be good enough for that. Unlikely in the 2nd round, but a first round win would be the expectation really. If this is okay with people, then a simple trimming around the edges and conservative deadline is probably enough.

I think that is the crux... do you expect CMac to put together the best possible roster to win a Cup, or are you okay with just a minor amount of playoff success and move on to another season?

I disagree. I think that line-up can win the Cup, with the current group of Dmen. But I think I could put 8 Rantanen on the wings with that center group and you would still say its not a Cup winning line-up...

Drouin-Mack-Rant
Nichushkin-Henrique-Guentzel/Top6W
Lando-Colton-Lehk
Woods-Olauf-LOC

 

[henchman21]

But they didn't have Lehky in Nov-Dec. That was a point I made a few days ago. All through the season the Avs have missed at least 2 of their best defensive forwards at the same time which IMO is affecting the team defense a lot more than people think...along with George not doing well also. Three of those four defensive forwards are also in their top-6 so they were losing lots of offense as well. You get George back at around .910 SV% and the record would be quite different.

There will always be injuries. They don't just disappear here.

I disagree. I think that line-up can win the Cup, with the current group of Dmen. But I think I could put 8 Rantanen on the wings with that center group and you would still say its not a Cup winning line-up...

Drouin-Mack-Rant
Nichushkin-Henrique-Guentzel/Top6W
Lando-Colton-Lehk
Woods-Olauf-LOC

8 Rantanens on wings would be the worst forward group defensively in the league.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

8 Rantanens on wings would be the worst forward group defensively in the league.

Remember when Mikko was decent defensively, because he actually tried? Where did that f***en guy go?

 

[The Abusement Park]

You better go hide right now. People are coming for you.

I mean it’s literally never worked before. May as well try again I guess?

 

[AllAboutAvs]

I mean it’s literally never worked before. May as well try again I guess?

I responded to that comment right here:
Rumor: - 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

 

[The Abusement Park]

I responded to that comment right here:
Rumor: - 23-24 Trade Rumors and Free Agency Part Trois: The Road to the Deadline

I mean I don’t think Drouin failed at C because he was the 1C. The dude isn’t a C, he would’ve failed at 1, 2, or 3C. He could do it in junior but his talent gap was massive there, but that isn’t the case in the NHL.

 

[AllAboutAvs]

There will always be injuries. They don't just disappear here.

Yeah I had a feeling you would come back with this. When those injuries are continuously on your top defensive forwards the team defensive game will eventually take a toll. You can ride that for a while but eventually it catches to you. Combine this with Makar, Mack going cold, George giving at least three goals a game, the Avs always having a slow start after long breaks, and you can see that is not a recipe for success.

 

[BrickNHL]

Remember when Mikko was decent defensively, because he actually tried? Where did that f***en guy go?

Too busy smoking ciggys while travelling to Helsinki to focus on conditioning in the offseason